mr. khamenei is oscillating between the two power centers. every second day he extends support to the line of mr. rouhani, the second day he supports the revolutionary guard and says he does not believe in a positive outcome of the nuclear negotiations. on the one hand, he understands the rouhani argument, that iran needs to get sanction relief. on the other hand, mr. khamenei cannot afford to alienate the revolutionary guard. he knows that the next time people go to the streets of tehran like in 2009, he needs the revolutionary guard to suppress the public dissidents. the difference between these three groups is not so much strategic but tactical. as soon as the worst sanctions are removed, as soon as iran's economy has stabilized, we will see tendencies where mr. khamenei is backing the revolutionary guard. so iran would walk away from the table and things would change. these are some of the expectations that i have right now. which is very pessimistic. >> i will say a word on this, even though it is out of my role as a moderator. i'm famili

mr. khamenei is oscillating between the two power centers. very second day he extends support to the line of mr. rouhani, the second day he supports the revolutionary guard and says he does not believe in a positive outcome of the nuclear negotiations. on the one hand, he understands the rouhani argument, that iran needs to get sanction relief. on the other hand, mr. khamenei cannot afford to alienate the revolutionary guard. the next time people go to the streets of tehran like in 2009, he needs the revolutionary guard to suppress the public dissidents. that is why we see him oscillating. the difference between these three groups is not so much strategic but tactical. as soon as the worst sanctions are removed, as soon as iran's economy has stabilized, we will see tendencies where mr. khamenei is backing the revolutionary guard. so iran would walk away from the table and things would change. these are some of the expectations that i have right now. which is very pessimistic. >> i will say a word on this, even though it is out of my role as a