mr. lamontagne? >> my friends, colleagues, and opponents of peter, i think we all went to deal with this in a straightforward way, and we are doing our best to explain what we believe and think. you know, it is not easy to run for public office, but i have had the courage to state that i am pro-choice. that i do believe, and i can say that as a conservative, because i think the government should be a smaller factor in our lives and not included in our lives. these are individual decisions, so i take each one of my colleagues up -- up here at their word. >> i, too, take them at their word. pro-choice vs of the pro-life. mr. lamontagne would espouse a constitutional amendment. constitution does not allow us to interfere in personal lives. i think a constitutional amendment would be out. mr. lamontagne, "the declaration of independence" is not "the constitution." and for ms. ayotte to say that she is pro-life with exceptions, that means she is pro-choice. >> thank you. mr. bender? >> as i said, a decent

mr. lamontagne, and so this may rumble over into 2012. we will lose mr. carville in a moment, and james, president clinton was out speaking at an event, and he had an interesting thing to say about one of his critic on another network. >> even today, i am being excoriated by some of the people, and one of the lead television commentators on one of the liberal cable channels said they 'm t-- that i'm a bes liberal president, and which may come to surprise of many. >> i was not aware, james, that you helped to elect a republican president? >> well, that is true, because 95% of the people in congress tried to impeach him, and that would be news to a lot of people. but you know, if history has a arc of history on some cable tv networks is short, about 15 minutes. >> we like to think that we are longer than that. one more number before we work in a break. this is jim dikes making a case that momentum will turn over. cnn opinion research corporation poll out today, do you trust the government always or most of the time. look at the numbers. 25% of americans say

mr. lamontagne. lot of conservatives telling us they believe radio ads criticizing kelly ayotte for supporting sonia sotomayor for the supreme court could be the difference if these numbers hold up. still only 20% of the vote in. we need to stay on top of that. this could be a stunner. people have been saying when will the new york republican party get its act together? rick lazio was supposed to be the candidate who would have a decent chance in the fall running for governor, developer carl paladino, a tea party candidate in this race, look at these numbers. it's still early in new york, but let's look at the numbers. 66% for carl paladino. 34% for rick lazio. mr. paladino saying he's establishment, you don't like it, he also has campaigned on the theme that if he is the next governor of new york, he would seize by eminent domain the site of that proposed cultural center near ground zero. this could be another stunning viory for the tea party tonight. two other races we're watching, one is here in t

mr. lamontagne win, the republican party would find themselves in perhaps another pickle similar to whaty're facing in delaware. like christine o'donnell accident they are having a heard time attracting voters and that would make the smile on the faces of democrats in the state and nationwide get even wider. joining me, nate silver from new york times.com. thank you for your time. in terms of this lamontagne race, you said that the republicans in a one in four chance. a 26% chance of taking back the senate. tell us big picture if tonight's results go the way they look like they'll go, what the update is on that. >> we'll be down to 15% if lamontagne win in new hampshire where they're taking a long time to count the vote, i might add. certainly the race in delaware where now you won't have that race even funded by the nrsc, which is smart, by the way, because they had better opportunities relatively speaking in a state like west virginia or connecticut. not the first tier or second tier targets. delaware has become like a fourth tier target. we would rather not give her a stage and a micr

mr. lamontagne has held the lead throughout the night. 41% to 38% for kelly ayotte. r conservatives in that race. 30% of the vote counted. they're counting slowly tonight in new hampshire, lamontagne holding his leads so far, although the numbers have closed just a bit. we need to keep watching in. new york governor, carl paladino, the tea party candidate will be the republican nominee for governor. how did he get there? this is a familiar storyline. he beat the establishment republican candidate rick lazio. let's break down the numbers here. carl paladino winning over rick lazio. 36% for lazio. 34%. you can tell those numbers are mixed up. mr. paladino is the winner in the state. mr. paladino is winning that race. he will be going up against the attorney general andrew cuomo. charlie rangel, cnn now projects, will be the winner in the democratic primary in the 15th congressional district. he has represented that district for 20 terms, that's 40 years in the house of representatives. he is now the runaway favorite despite ethics allegations against him. it makes him t

mr. castle. kelly ayotte is in a tight battle against tea party backed ovid lamontagne and two lesser known candidates. sarah palin is backing ayotte. it's paying off. ayotte leading lamontagne by seven points. >>> also playing out right here in new york's race for governor, tea party republican, carl paladino, millionaire developer and political novice is closing in on rick lazio. he's the choice of the republican and the conservative leaders in the state. the new poll shows lazio leading paladino by one percentage point. not a lead at all. on the democrat inge siic side, rangel has been charged with 13 ethics violations, stripped of his position as the chair of the ways and means committee. he's going to hold on. he's raised more campaign money than all of his challenger combined. >>> and in wisconsin, watch out for republican businessman ron johnson. if the political newcomer wins it primary today as expected, analysts say he's got a good chance of unseating democratic senator russ feingold, a main stain in washington for years. republican leaders in congress are backing away from a possible compro