mr. marckwardt: yes, up here in the front. or in the back. >> what are your thoughts on our lichtman -- on alan lichtman, academics like him who have these, what, 13 bases, or? dr. young: his keys? it's a model. it's a model that i don't understand 100% but i think it is a bit of take about how he measures things. there is a measurement issue. only he knows how to use the keys, it seems. if he can't open up the method from a scientific perspective and locate it then we have a problem. just as an aside i teach another class at some other places i am forecasting. what we do is we take the last electoral cycle and decompose all the models and recompose them. because they are transparent so we know how they are put together. we can take them apart and put them back together and figure out is wrong. there's not a lot of transparency there. i don't know how he is measuring variables. but he has some sort of probabilistic model so it is no different. there is no special sauce. it is like any other model that exists. it has an outcome

mr. marckwardt: thank you for that.i was reading the book, when i first started stinking about polling, i think of it more as just the science. numbers, statistics. i think what you laid out really well, you talk about in the beginning, you had your first client and you looked at your data sets and your biases and looked at how the interpretation was made and you presented it. what i found was in this book at least there is a whole other side of it, if you will, maybe the art of it, which is using some of your own know-how and experience to figure out different questions that might be asked of you or understanding different biases you might not have thought of before. i don't know if you want to talk about your first story when you went up to the client and the asked you questions you are not even anticipating. dr. young: i will jump in. the book has four vignettes for the four sections of the book. those vignettes are these initial experiences in my career that i did not have answers. and that indeed set me on the jour

mr. marckwardt: thank you for that.rst started stinking about polling, i think of it more as just the science. numbers, statistics. i think what you laid out really well, you talk about in the beginning, you had your first client and you looked at your data sets and your biases and looked at how the interpretation was made and you presented it. what i found was in this book at least there is a whole other side of it, if you will, maybe the art of it, which is using some of your own know-how and experience to figure out different questions that might be asked of you or understanding different biases you might not have thought of before. i don't know if you want to talk about your first story when you went up to the client and the asked you questions you are not even anticipating. dr. young: i will jump in. the book has four vignettes for the four sections of the book. those vignettes are these initial experiences in my career that i did not have answers. and that indeed set me on the journey to organize this book. the fi