muhamed el-erian, let me start with you. there is so much information coming in but it's not all pointing in the same direction. how do you see the strength of the economy? >> so judy, you're right. it's mixed information. if you were to bring it all together we believe it points to a really sluggish economy. by that we mean growth of 1%. and there are both external and internal reasons for that. externally the headwinds are considerable. china is slowing. europe is still in a debt crisis. internally we are still dealing with the legacy of the financial crisis. we've had basically no policymaking out of congress now for a long time. and to make things even worse, the healthy parts of the economy, and there are quite a few, the healthy parts are not engaging because they're waiting to see how the fiscal cliff and other things are going to work out. so sluggish economy with the risk of stalled speed. >> so ken rogoff, is sluggish the main word you would use? >> i think muhamed el-erian gave a pretty good description of what's