mykhailo bessarab political scientist mr. mykhailo vechar good how do you hear good evening to hear good, maria, and president volodymyr zelensky thanked his american colleague for signing the lend-lease law, it happened symbolically on may 9. such a wonderful new date or to start the celebration in your opinion, it is indeed, talobo will become a turning point or an irreversible moment in this war, which will definitely lead us to victory, well, this is a logical continuation of the large-scale system support in the western states of ukraine and our fight against russian aggression, of course, lend-lease formalizes the delivery of american weapons to ukraine. that decision , which was logical, which we were waiting for, which was suggested and which was inevitable, er, can you say that this is some kind of turning point ? we must give credit to the americans, especially the american president, who signed the corresponding law on the ninth of may, on a very important er, even well, you can say that it is a sacred day for putin, for modern russian ideology, and the same er, the law on lend-lease er testifies about the fact that america's support for ukraine is an unprecedented event since the second world war, it underlines the importance of america's appropriate policy towards ukraine and our struggle against russia , and also of course, this is a framework law that does not provides for specific provisions related to the supply of one or another weapon in one or another volume, but this is a framework law that opens a, uh , uh, a new program, and a larger-scale, more systematic program of armed support of ukraine from the united states of america, because he declared that the russian president dictator vladimir putin has no way out of this war, that is, putin no longer sees any options. how can this war be ended? well, it is in the opinion of a person that this can mean it is bad or good because it will obviously be a war on the exhaustion of the war to the victorious end of one page, it is obvious that russia believes that it can win this war, you know, we have to deal with uh this fact well, this is not the assumption of president biden and this is a fact, as in reality, it is very difficult to say whether it is good or not bad, on the one hand, it's good, on the other hand, it's bad, it 's good, because it means that our victory is inevitable. we don't have many alternatives. we'll either win or we'll all have to disappear physically as a people. as a state, of course that won't happen. we will survive and we will win, on the other hand, this is good , on the other hand, what is bad, yes, in this situation, it means that putin and moscow and his entourage, that is, putin's entourage, they will try to go to the end, they will try to use the entire arsenal of means of influence to ukraine means that can help them achieve the desired result, you know. this war is an existential phenomenon. in what sense. in the sense that in this war, this war should most likely end with the final defeat of one of the parties and we are sure that it will be russia. this war does not provide an opportunity for compromise because russia has raised this bar too high, so, too, too ambitious are the demands of russia and the ambitions of russia in this war, and the price is too high for us, uh, it could be the price possible defeat, therefore, in this war, someone alone will win, definitely and finally, of course, ukraine will win this war, as i already said, we have no other options, and therefore, president biden , before waiting well, feeling this dilemma, so of this war, he made such a statement, this means what putin has no way back, that is, he has no way to retreat. because it will be very difficult for him to explain this defeat to his entourage and to the russian people, it will be a huge tragedy for him personally . to the fact that at some stage we will manage to agree on something with moscow, so stop hostilities and find some compromise , agree somewhere in the middle, this will not happen, that is, we must prepare for a victorious war in which russia must suffer final defeat and unconditional defeat. yesterday, on may 10, the director of national intelligence, evrin haynes, and lieutenant general scott beryal, the head of the intelligence directorate of the us department of defense, gave a report to the us congress. the parties will fight to their victory. well, each side has to believe in its victory, and the thing that putin is not succeeding in is that he has already failed to achieve his goals set at the beginning, but it is assumed american intelligence that in the coming months the war may become more unpredictable and escalating, and even they are talking not only about the threat of a nuclear attack, but about something else. to somehow change the strategy of waging war based on the fact that he has no opportunity to retreat, he will definitely throw into battle all available resources and all available opportunities and that is why the most unexpected are possible twists and turns of the course of this armed large-scale armed confrontation in which moscow can go to increase the scale of the war, so moscow can, no matter how paradoxical it sounds, seek to involve the nato countries in this war, so that is, russia has gone all-in for them as well it is unacceptable for ukraine to lose the war, to involve the states in natonna, but she understands that then she will definitely lose. well, it seems to me that she should understand this, taking into account the military potential of the alliance, there may be several explanations here, firstly, to lose the war e for the kremlin leadership will be humiliating in view of the propaganda they have been spreading for decades, portraying ukraine as a weak opponent, so if russia loses the war only in ukraine, it will be shameful for the russian leadership, this is the first, second, increase in the scale of armed confrontation and possible involvement nato in e-e war e-e opens up the possibility or creates, that is, increases the probability of the start of a large-scale third world war. so when, in response to certain actions of russia, nato is included in the war, it further creates certain grounds for the inclusion in the war, except for russia, on the side of russia, as moscow considers the wounding of china and their other potential allies, as well as a larger-scale war legitimizes or justifies the possible general mobilization of russia, yes, for the war because right now, since this is a special operation , it is very difficult for putin to justify a general mobilization within russia, that is, he will announce the mobilization, this did not happen. the hidden general mobilization is actually already going on because in russia there are colossal losses, a large number of refusals, contract breaks, big problems with conscripts and when their parents demand the return of their children to the territory of russia, that is, russia has drawn all its possible forces to ukraine e resources from the caucasus, from central asia , even the information that they are withdrawing their contingent from syria, all this to replenish the manpower on the territory of ukraine, so that is, putin feels an urgent need to mobilize his army and precisely more war can give him a reason for this, in addition to that, putin still has an obvious hope that a possible confrontation with nato will lead to a split within the alliance when a certain part of the members of the nato member states will refuse a direct armed confrontation with by russia and thus, according to putin's calculations, a split within nato may occur, accordingly, putin has the opportunity to enter into certain separate negotiations with these refuseniks and with states that will not have the desire to fight against russia, and he may is counting on or dreaming of pulling them over to his side, that is, the war creates such a large-scale, large- scale uncertainty, so on the territory of europe in a global dimension, and so on. here is this larger-scale war, it supposedly poses greater threats to russia, but if it did not look paradoxical, it creates for russia, well, more room for maneuver, that is, it creates at least some chance, this is all in larger-scale global upheavals in this uncertainty on the territory of europe, there is no certainty that can follow this, he can dream about what he has. attention from the international community and try to split nato and involve its potential allies in the war. in your opinion, it is possible to split nato, and you know we definitely , that is, if we judge by the way nato behaves at the moment when nato states the european union will absolutely take consolidated decisions regarding sanctions pressure against russia regarding the provision of certain weapons to ukraine, so putin's attempts to involve nato in the war still create a certain danger that some part of the european members of the alliance may hesitate as to whether they should go in the direction of armed confrontation with russia , yes, such a probability is low, yes, because, sorry , even a war with russia is undesirable. but together in a team with verifiable verifiable allies, it much more predictable than an uncertain future alone with moscow but we understand that putin does not have so many options, so which one can he use now because, as i already said, a war with ukraine leads to an inevitable defeat with russia, that is, putin must go all-in, he must take risks , er, by having hai, that is, creating for himself hai illusory, but still, some new chances, new opportunities for maneuver, and here is this adventure with the possible involvement of nato eh, i’m saying this a very risky option for him, but he creates for at least he has at least some ghostly yes, but still the opportunity to find a chance for salvation in this new global uncertainty, you say that he will look for some new ways, and here it seems to me that it is impossible not to mention the threat of a nuclear strike and this is the report of the american the development that was talked about there also sounded hm such a story that putin can resort to a nuclear strike not even because of losses at the front due to the zno with ukraine and then when he feels the threat of his regime when he feels that the presidential chair is under him there he starts actively waver, do you agree with this? and what do you think in general about a possible nuclear strike , or can putin go for it, considering that if he understands that he is actually backed into a corner, well, we cannot reject such a possibility, although i think that as of now, all statements from russia, russian officials, russian official propagandists , this is rather blackmail, well, this is intimidation, so the probability is in the task. it is quite possible advice it seems to me together and er here it is really necessary to deliver a preventive strike of such preventive sanctions measures so that putin understands that each subsequent threat to use nuclear weapons will cause additional additional international pressure on russia so that they even er well each when they will consider the possibility of such a new threat, they took into account the risk of being subject to new sanctions. but if we talked about a possible war with nato, and this is the story of a possible nuclear strike, it seems to me that russia's attempt to involve nato in a war, that is, the probability that russia will try to enter a nato war is higher than the probability of a nuclear strike, because if russia is in the current situation of such an international exile and being alone and under such conditions will launch a nuclear strike , then the punishment for this action will be, well, it will be of a colossal scale of colossal weight. not will approve such a decision and will join those countries that want to punish russia in this way for this unprecedented step, for example, it is much easier for russia to create this new reality, a global reality, to actually drag the world into the third world war. that is, to do this more let's say yes, well, it is more useful and predictable for russia than to launch a nuclear strike in today's situation uh-uh, another important news of today, as it seems to me, uh-uh, in ukraine, the first russian military officer will be tried in accused of murdering a civilian in the sumy region, it is about a 21-year-old russian military man, he was arrested almost at the beginning of the war and he himself admitted that he had shot a 60-year-old civilian, how important is this step? it's a good story, but it's just a drop in the ocean. this one is a military man for all of us, because ukrainians would like something much larger in court and over other people. well, i mean the top leadership of russia, the prosecution of russian war criminals must be based on something. to start like this and what has begun here is this first trial er and i am sure that this is only the start of er such a campaign of systematic and systematic persecution of russian war criminals er as regards the punishment of the highest military and political leadership this will be worth waiting for, and these criminals will certainly be subjected to such persecution on the territory of ukraine. i really hope in the international courts, but the fact that this process has begun is definitely a positive signal, it began even before the end of the war, and this will you know such a good warning for all russian military men who are currently on the territory of ukraine before committing, well, it is our task to make sure that they learn about it, so first a person must receive a sentence eh be legally convicted eh then this should become an example for everyone else, so people should understand that first they have already committed a crime by taking part in armed aggression against a sovereign state, and every subsequent crime is like looting , violence, bullying, violation of other rules the waging of war will be prosecuted according to a special procedure. so, they are just military men, yes, on the territory of ukraine, who carry out criminal orders , yes, they are all responsible . but when people, when each of them will commit some additional special crimes, yes, will violate the corresponding internationally recognized rules of warfare. since uh, then uh, each of them will face such a special punishment as uh, this military serviceman, whom we talked about with you now, from which regions of russia, to be more precise they are going to fight with us. well, these are such remote regions from the steel regions, it’s probably not for nothing, but it is precisely in these regions that people are sent to the war, and will we ever see that summonses will start coming and i don’t know to the people there, to the residents of moscow saint-petersburg until it's over, sorry buryati in russia, then it's the turn of these cities, which in principle are considered the most developed in russia, they are safe, this topic is really under the special focus of attention, because we really see such well, it's so huge imbalance in the structure of losses for well. actually , the origin is regional, ethnic, about the origin of russian servicemen, yes , it is true, muscovites and residents of st. petersburg there are a small number, yes, they are in this total mass, that is, their share in the total mass is minimal, eh, the most losses if i am not mistaken among the buryats from the dagestanis well, then there are usually representatives of other regions of the russian hinterland and the indigenous peoples of russia. and this is not accidental. there may also be several explanations, so the first thing is that service in the russian army for er representatives of the russian hinterland is almost the only opportunity to survive, that is, they go to fight a-and because of course they also preserve the possibility of existence for their families, the salary is there, if i'm not mistaken, i read the material about buryatia , the salary there, for example, of a physical education teacher and an ordinary russian soldier, it differs tenfold, that is, if you go to serve in the army, new opportunities open up for you a-a the same applies to the obvious representatives of other regions, for example, tash chechnya , yes, from which we had these kadyrov tic-tokers here, and this is the poorest region of the world, the poorest in the economic sense, the region with the richest ruler, that is, to go serve kadyrov, this is also for many an opportunity, just a chance, not existence, this is the first the explanation is economic, because for people, that is, in such an allegedly prosperous russia, people serve in the army - this is the only opportunity to earn, or not the only opportunity to earn. the second explanation - it seems to me that the kremlin's conscious demographic policy is aimed at the destruction of representatives of small nations when putin , by sending buryats here to the dagestanis, chechens , kalmyks and others, simply wants to correct the demographic balance within russia. so where russians are increasingly making up, well, conventional ethnic russians are making up an increasingly smaller share. and by the way, one more explanation: they will not, there will not be such a thing mass prize money to moscow and st. petersburg, because it can very quickly lead to mass protests, it concerns me to get there actually and yes yes, that is, it is easier with the hinterland than with the hinterland to get used to the same er-er cope because er-er this regional policy of moscow is based on the use of coercive violence, so in regions where local feudal lords simply with the help of er-er law enforcement agencies keep the local population in fear, therefore it is easier to suppress these this possible resistance or dissatisfaction in moscow and st. petersburg and not all other big places will make it much more difficult mr. mykhailok you for your time and your comments and we wish you a quiet, peaceful night without worries mykhailo besarab