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it's great to be back at nabe. i'm afraid that i'm going to mostly stand here while i talk. rather than just focusing on the budget this morning i thought it would be useful to spend most of my time talking about cbo's perspective on the u.s. economic outlook and then i will wrap up by talking about the budget. i know your next session will go in to budget issues in greater detail. i want to try to address five questions. first, most importantly, how will the labor market evolve? together with our budget and economic outlook released a few weeks ago, we released a separate report on the slow recovery of the labor market. so we'll start with that. then, i'll talk briefly about how rapidly we think potential output will grow, how rapidly we think actual output will grow. what the paths will be for inflation, interest rates, and the labor share of income. and i will wrap up by talking about the resulting projections for the budget. about the labor market. in our view, the slow recovery of the labor market largely reflects slow growth in the demand for goods and services. with a

in the middle after normally quiet nabe. >> i came through this spot. everything was fine.ng boom, there it is. >> most existment this neighborhood had in a while. but it's a little bit daunting to live so close to something like that. having kid around something like that will be a little bit concerning so you know that they're safe. where is the, they come up unexpectedly. you know, them getting near something like that. so yeah, that is probably the biggest concern. jamie: not the kind of excitement you look for in your neighborhood. no homes are in danger right now. officials keep an eye on it. they don't want it to happen again and they will fill in the hole meantime. bill. bill: till the next one happens, right? only days after a worker in a auto plant in tennessee voted against joining a union some liberals are blaming it on racism. timothy noah on msnbc said yesterday. quote, the opposition gathered, portrayed this as northern invasion a refighting of the civil war, apparently there are not a lot of black employees in this particular plant. so that kind waving of th

. >> nabe just released its policy survey and not surprisingly there seems to be a fair amount of consensus about monetary policy, that monetary policy's about right, but there is not consensus on fiscal policy. either too restrictive, stimulative, maybe just about right. if we could play armchair quarterback for a minute and look back five years ago to the big fiscal stimulus of the american recovery and reinvestment act, five years later, too big, not big enough? effective? not well targeted? what are your thoughts how it worked if it worked? >> i have some but i don't always get to go first. want to start? >> sure. it's pretty tough to throw $1 trillion at the u.s. economy and not do something. the whole notion how this has no impact is badly misplaced. it is shocking that it's had such little political success. in terms of political success per dollar of g.d.p., this is an all-time loser. i think it could easily have been executed much better. this is a bill with an enormous number of design flaws, in my view, and in part -- in part that came from the natural inclination of the congress