[applause] >> i'm nancy jarvis cure the world affairs council of northern california. speaking with bruce bueno de mesquita about his new book, "the predictioneer's game." it's now time for us to take questions from our audience. this is a great first question. madeleine albright describes global affairs as more like a billiard game and not like poker or chess, where the arrangement of the game is constantly changing and dynamic. how do you account for dynamic shifts were changes in one variable might have wildly different effects on players? >> wonderful question. so my models are themselves dynamic. the data coming in, as i mentioned, the position of the players and so forth, all of those variables within the logic of the model are changing in response to the strategic laying out of the game within the model's logic. people power go up and down, people's positions moves this way or that way. people focus on the issue ships and so forth. the world is a complicated place and it's also filled with uncertainty. and the models are designed to try to capture much of that u