naohiko: no, i mean -- stephen: what is your outlook for the full year? naohiko: fiscal 2020.wth. what kind of growth are we talking about? outlookupgraded its 20.7 percent growth, modest increase. while they were downgrading the rest of the world, japan was out. that is largely due to this stimulus. naohiko: i think so. stephen: you know, also, we are seeing the vat increase. what kind of dampening effect would that have had? i think it is a bit premature. my impression is that -- tax hike. it seems to be a bit fragile. maintain the base case fear that there is a tax hike this time. it is smaller and shorter than the last one in 2014. stephen: we have seen it when they went from 3% to 5%. they went from 5% to 8%. 8% to 10%. we don't know the lingering effects of that. japan has gone into recession. we are not looking at recession now because it is an olympics year. there is that big stimulus package. but could we come outpost olympics and post vat hike to 10%? could japan be in serious trouble? naohiko: japan's outlook. the relative growth figure for the first quarter of 2019