>> nate cohen is crunching the numbers. >> i'm krystal ball. from coffins to clintons to celebrities and big bird. which ad didn't fly with voters? >> i'm s.e. cupp. it's a matter of hours until we know whether mitt romney is moving to 1600 pennsylvania avenue. >> just 1,462 days to election day 2016. hillary clinton you're the next contestant, come on down. i'm ahead of myself. you're in "the cycle" for monday, november 5th. >> this is it. t mif minus one day and counting. tomorrow the talking ends while people vote and the counting begins. the what kind of election will 2012 be? we know the polls nationwide show a virtual tie. we know that polls in the big battleground states give the president a small but persistent edge. there are gaps with each campaign, gender, enthusiasm, race and income. today we compare 2012 with three previous elections, 1980, 2000 and 2004. in 2004 it was a turnout election and a change of 70,000 votes in ohio would have meant president kerry. in 2000 gore won popt lar vote but bush prespraled in the electoral colleg

nate cohen is taking it a step further. he laid out a detailed scenario, vote turnout nightmare.e ask you first about the popular vote issue. what we've talked about on this show before is the idea that obama is sort of underperforming in democratic states, he's going win anyway, he's had more of a falloff in blue states than elsewhere and that could drag down his national popular vote total. do you think there's potential then when you add in the hurricane and the logistical issues that come out of that that further depresses turnout in new jersey or something and affects the national popular vote? >> i do think the blue states would be responsible for obama loss in the popular vote if he was winning the electoral college. there are recent polls out of massachusetts, connecticut and california in the last 24 hours that shows obama losing nine to ten points even more than that in connecticut off of his 2008 performance and that would represent a pretty substantial decline that's greater than that elsewhere in the country. in terms of the hurricane it's hard to say. i'm not sure a