joining me now contributing writer for roll call, nathan gonzalez and also for the roth political reportgood to see you. good morning. >> thanks for having me on. >> the time poll shows president obama has a two to one advantage among those who already voted in ohio 60% to 30%. now republicans always assume democrats would have the advantage in early voting, but do these results tell us something, anything significant about the state of ohio? >> think that's part of the problem. i think it is a data point worth taking in as we all try to figure out what's going on, but i'm not sure if it's predicted value. i get the feeling that sometimes we place too much emphasis for early voting and a vote cast today matters just as much as the vote cast on november 6th. another reason why i pause on the predicted value of early voting is because this is still a fairly new phenomena. we've had absentee and early voting before, but in terms of the campaign's emphasis on getting out the early vote, we're still two or three presidential cycles into that emphasis and we're not sure if it's just getting so

let's bring in nathan gonzalez, deputy editor of the rothenberg report. than, you and i both know, typically this is the republican's fool's gold, right? it looks like it might go the other way, but never does. well, i shouldn't say never. what is the probability? this is the year that it may go red. >> right. well, we just finished doing a deep dive into the senate race in pennsylvania, which i think most people had been ignoring for most of the cycle, but democratic senator bob casey jr., there are also multiple public polls that show that he's in a tighter race than expected. but in doing that, we are seeing some private polling that shows what some of the public polling is, is that mitt romney is within striking distance in pennsylvania. now, there are a couple dynamics. just a few minutes ago, you were talking about the state unemployment rate. now, the state unemployment rate in pennsylvania is higher than it is in ohio. it's higher than the national average. but i think we also should have the same caution that this is kind of like lucy and charlie

thanks to our friend nathan gonzalez. who else is going to come up with this? him or wassermann right? do you have a political trivia question? e-mail us and we'll be right back with more from our panel and that al gore contribution to the presidential race. [ female announcer ] ready for a taste of what's hot? check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic. >>> obama arrived in denver at 2:00 p.m. today, just a few hours before the debate started. romney did his debate prep in denver. when you go to 5,000 feet -- >> exactly. >> -- and you only have a few hours to adjust -- >> that's interesting. >> i don't know. >> oh, boy. that was former vice president al gore with what you would call one of the more creative explanations for president obama's denver debate performance. let's bring back our panel. j jim, karen, and matt. what did you get out of that? >> i love this is not a time for politics. there's 30 day

also, nathan gonzalez is back. he's the deputy editor at the rothenberg political report. ks for coming back, nathan. larry, good to have you with us. let's talk about the commonwealth here. mitt romney has picked virginia as the place to lay out his foreign policy agenda. the governor's going to be speaking at the virginia pill tear institute in lexington tomorrow. larry, why is virginia so important this time around? >> well, last time virginia was the closest to president obama's national average. nationally, he got 52.9% of the vote. virginia, he got 52.6%. so virginia is increasingly seen as a fulcrum in the national election. doesn't have to turn out the same way this time, obviously, but virginia is a prize that both sides want, and there's a good reason. it's actually very, very close. much closer than some of the national polls have suggested. >> larry, how has the state changed politically and/or demographically over the past four years? >> well, you've added a percent minority to virginia's population. i would say probably white voters in virginia will constitute