here i will leave it up to the national bureau of economic research. they define recession. i'm just saying we won't define it. we use the indicators that the national bureau of economic research gives us. we've said this many times already. what will be comments, two quarters of negative growth in a row is a recession, well technically speaking, it didn't technically save the recession in the economy described by a much broader set of data the biden administration tries to point out that the definition of a recession has some nuances, but they cannot falsify it , because even though i understand why they do it in terms of politics, but they can't help but recognize this problem jennet yellin. she said it was like. well, if you have two quarters of shrinking growth, gdp is not necessarily a recession, i have been doing economics for many years. everyone i've talked to says that two shrinking quarters means the economy is in recession. you believe that is not the real definition of a recession. this is a significant period of reduction for several months. the usa

clear, so we are not going to hear the white house say that there is a recession until the national bureau of economic research has declared it one? ms. jean-pierre: what i am saying is that the definition, the technical definition -- and secretary yellen said this yesterday on meet the press -- is the national bureau of economic research that looks at a broad range of data in deciding whether or not there is a recession, and most of that data they look at right now continues to be strong. so that is who we look at. i'm not going to get into a hypothetical right now. we don't do that. but we are using that as clearly an indicator and bailing out how they get to that definition. reporter: quickly on taiwan, does the house speaker have the president's blessing to go to taiwan? ms. jean-pierre: that is another hypothetical. i am not going to get ahead of speaker pelosi. again, i have laid out how we have, from time to time, given advice on the geopolitical situation, on national security issues for eventually any trip that a member of congress takes. i don't want to get ahead of her. from what i understa

to be clear we are not going to hear the white house say there is a recession until the national bureau of economicesearch has declared one? >> what i am saying is the definition -- the technical definition secretary allen said this yesterday on meet the press, is a national bureau of economic research looks at a broad range of data in deciding whether or not there is a recession. most of that data they look at right now continues to be strong. that is who we lookt ho at. i am not going to get into a hypothetical right now. we do not do that. but we are using that as clearly as an indicator. and how they get to that, how they get to that definition. >> and quickly, the house speaker have the president's blessing to go to taiwan? >> that's another hypothetical. i am not going to get ahead of speaker pelosi. again, i have laid out how we have from time to time given advice on thead geopolitical situation on national security issues for potentially any trip a member of congress takes. i do not want to get ahead of her. from what i understand there is not been a trip announced at this time. >> a quick

that's 2 quarters of economic downturn from the to the p. a bodies like the national bureau of economic research would determine whether or not we're actually in a recession. look at other economic factors beyond g, d, p, such as the job market, which happens to be booming in the united states right now on employment is down jobs. well, there's plenty of them for workers. so, yes, markets are up, but just the message centers around the u. s. not being a recession and just because market seem to be buying, that doesn't mean that a recession isn't coming. tidy. recession is still certainly on the table for many on wall street. morgan stanley's mike wilson says that the rallies of the past 2 days are a trap that were in a bear market. and that we haven't seen the bottom yet. bank of america has determined that we might see a recession, a mild recession, actually in the 2nd half of this year, they're looking at factors such as consumers, spending figures came out today. the consumer spending is down, business investment, residential investment is down also, inflation still ragin

officially the national bureau of economic research declares recessions and expansions and will not make a judgment for many months if not longer. today's report comes on the heels of the federal reserve raising interest rates for the fourth time this year. the federal reserve hiking interest rates another 0.75% . >> the labor market is extremely tight. >> reporter: prices of goods and services have claimed to the high street in four tickets, driven in part by the war against ukraine and covid- 19 pandemic . >> the fed has never had to face this kind of inflation bottle. >> reporter: the fed chair said the goal is to bring inflation down from 9% to 2% without sparking a recession. on capitol hill, there is hope a breakthrough deal with senator joe manchin on a budget reconciliation bill will help to reduce prices and pay down the national debt . republicans argue democrat policies are part of the problem. >> what i've seen them do his reckless spending that increases taxes. >> reporter: the administration points to bright spots, including declining gas prices , low an appointment, and he

the arbiter is the national bureau of economic research. they specifically do not look at gdp. they look at an array of factors. there's no indication that smoke is about to come from the chimney at their headquarters in cambridge, massachusetts. tom: dan moss on the technicalities around recession. two quarters do not -- does not necessarily mean we are there. let's get to those big tech earnings. amazon shares jumped in after hours trading after reported better than expected second-quarter revenue. apple's iphone demand helped company narrowly top estimates for the quarter. joining me now is matt. key takeaways for you? decent when it comes to cloud services for amazon. matthew: also the fact that the e-commerce cells were flat and did not shrink, and the biggest thing was keeping costs under control. that has been big for amazon shareholders recently. they invested a lot in their capacity through the pandemic. demand was not there so it's good to see that the new ceo is managing costs. they issued a range for revenue guidance that was pretty much consistent with where we are

years, two quarters of a contraction in the economy is a recession, the final diagnosis for national bureau of economic research, but there, as always, they are being cautious, this was also the case in the crisis of 2008. and now , biden and the democrats have every month left until the midterm congressional elections . in the meantime, it was decided to release janet with a gel, most economists and americans define a recession, similar, tangible job losses and massive cutbacks in business closures slowdown in private sector activity family budgets. widespread weakening of the economy by tension is not what we are seeing now, the us economy is entering a new transitional phase, added yelin, apparently from nowhere to nowhere about a nine percent record inflation for 40 years, the minister of finance, by the way, prudently kept silent to put out this fire, her successor in federal reserve system jerome powell, who has already raised the key rate of a good option three times. they don't have either to sacrifice growth for inflation reduction or inflation for growth, the dual threat posed by an economy t

when you look at the economy, the official arbiter of what is a recession is the national bureau of economic research. they'll decide it at some time in the future. i think what we can constructively do is what is the state of the economy. and as i tried to describe, the labor market remains exceptionally strong. that is not what we see in past episodes that has been labeled to be recession. on the other hand, we do see significant slowdown in growth. that's to be expected given how rapidly the economy grew when it was recovering from the pandemic and all of those job losses and policy was designed to do that. we should expect to see a slowdown. this economy is at full employment. so we have a slowing economy and whole variety of risks to the outlook that i have tried to enumerate but we have great strengths in the economy. strong labor market being one strength. consumer household balance sheets remain generally quite strong. credit quality is strong. you do not see some increase -- significant increase in business bankruptcy. the typical kinds of distress we associate with the word recessi

of negative economic growth and strong employment? >> recession is a technical term economists use in the united states. it is decided by a group of people at the national bureauomic research. i wouldn't get too hung up on the semantics. the basic facts is the economy is adding a lot of jobs. but, economic growth really is negative and appears to be getting worse. that is a weird combination. there is good news and badews there for the american people. >> meanwhile we have interest rates going up. is it possible that could tip the economy into recession as the central bank is trying desperately to curb inflation? >> absolutely the fed may end up tipping the economy into recession. it is very unusual to raise rates when the economy is contracting like this. it is especially unusual to raise them 75 basis points, but this inflation itself is unusual. we haven't had inflation like this for 40 years. i think the fed is doing the right thing. we may have a soft landing and managed to avoid recession. but part of what they are trying to do is deal with the problem up front because the longer you wait, the harder it becomes. >> gas prices are going down and have been

we use indicators that the nber, the national bureau of economic research has used. ht, not to sound too snarky or persnickety, national bureau of economic research their definition of recession is tighter. it is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months. a few months, not six quarters, not six months, rather, not two quarters. plus the nber can take up to a year of a recession to announce one. so we may be in one. >> yeah, this administration doesn't want to do anything to actually help people. they want to redefine terms so they can shirk their responsibility but come talk to somebody in wisconsin in kenosha who is getting clobbered when they go to the pump and they can't afford to fill up their car with gas. come talk to people across the country who can't afford their grocery bills, who are making decisions they can't take their children out to dinner for pizza on friday because costs keep going up. this administration is so concerned with optics that they're redefining words like recession rather than actually addressing the pai

economic recession and we don't see that an economic recession is really determined by the national bureau of economicearch. they're the ones that make the call. the president doesn't make it. uh the federal reserve doesn't make it. i don't make it . it's the national bureau of economic research, and they would laugh to think that there is a recession. it's more of a slowing down of the economy right now. precursor would be you know millions of people out of work, george on that note the white house, including treasury secretary janet yellen, defending the numbers, saying the economy is stabilizing after rapid growth out of pandemic. so do you agree that that's what we're seeing? well the economy was pretty strong going into this and we feel that really with too much cash and that that's really part of the problem. people that were working have pent up savings are able to still go out and buy things and that's what's really raising. a lot of the price is right now, but we're already seeing under the covers the effect of the of the higher interest rates. uh spending is starting to slow down. i mean, lo

however, the national bureau of economic research has not declared a recession. >> jerome powell said while consumer spending and production are slowing, unemployment remains near 50-year lows. that suggests the u.s. is not currently in a recession. >> i do not think the u.s. is currently in a recession. >> whatever we're in today, whether you want to call it a recession or not, doesn't feel like a natural recession, at least a classic recession as we have had in previous periods. >> trevor: oh! it's a recession! possibly! but buy everything! we're all going to die! at some point. america might be in a recession or not. some signs say no, but some signs say yes. as we found out today the gross domestic product has gone negative for two quarters in a row. and that's generally a sign that you are in a recession. you be, it's like when you say i love you to your partner and they respond, "great." ( laughter ) that's a sign that your relationship is in a recession. ( laughter ) and in case you're wonder yg they call is "gross domestic product," it's because most of the economy is pretty g

the national bureau of economic research consists of 8 economists who gather and examine all relevant data and then make an independent determination. polls indicate that some 50 percent of the us population believes the recession has already begun. despite what the president says are going to be a lot of chatter today on wall street and among finance, about whether we are in a recession and in a meeting with president biden. a number of chief executive officers agree there is no recession pointing to the notable absence of the most historically reliable sign of a downturn. point rise in the unemployment rate averaged over several months. by kinda august 0, washington. italy is scrambling to relocate thousands of refugees and migrants on the mediterranean island of lampa do so after a surgeon arrivals of the crowding at the reception center. as adding to the trauma, people have already been through this natasha name reports. they survived the perils of the mediterranean, but once they reached the shores of lampa, do so many migrants refugees, that asylum seekers see a europe that isn'

the national bureau of economic research consists of 8 economists who gather and examine all relevant data and then make an independent determination. polls indicate that some 50 percent of the u. s. population believes the recession has already begun, despite what the president says are going to be a lot of chatter today on wall street and among pundents about whether we are in a recession and in a meeting with president biden. a number of chief executive officers agree there is no recession pointing to the notable absence of the most historically reliable sign of a downturn. a half point raised in the unemployment rate, averaged over several months. by kinda august 0, washington. moving on and ukraine says, russian forces of launched a missile attack on the key region for the 1st time in weeks. the regional governor says a settlement about 20 kilometers from the center of the capitol was head. russian troops withdrew from that area. months ago, after failing to capture it, the northern region of chinese was also targeted on thursday. meanwhile, ukrainian forces, se be stepping off a

recessions are actually determined by a committee of economists at the national bureau of economic research and a look at gdp plus a number of other factors like the labor market. they are defining recession as a time when the economy is contracting in a prolonged, pervasive way. they are looking rather that broad based type of slowdown. although we had this negative gdp number, we have a strong labor market. consumers have a good balance sheet. debts are relatively low compared to their income to banks are in pretty solid shape to their already number of positives to offset the negatives that are out there. i will say whether or not we are in a recession right now, clearly things are slowing down and there is an elevated risk of going into recession if we are not there already. >> when will we know for sure whether the u.s. will be going into a recession or whether we are in one? there are a number of factors that play into this. when will we know? >> there is the official determination. that comes with a long lag. the economist trying to determine when a recession occurs, their main focus

the national bureau of economic research consists of 8 economists who gather and examine all relevant data and then make an independent determination. polls indicate that some 50 percent of the us population believes the recession has already begun. despite what the president says are going to be a lot of chatter today on wall street and among finance, about whether we are in a recession and in a meeting with president biden. a number of chief executive officers agree there is no recession pointing to the notable absence of the most historically reliable sign of a downturn. point rise in the unemployment rate averaged over several months. by kind of august era, washington, france, president emanuel con, has met saudi crown. prince. mom had been salman at the ally, say palace, france, and other european countries are trying to secure alternative sources of energy to reduce their dependence on russian oil and gas. it's been sol months, 1st official visit to the u, since jealous jamal cash algae was murdered at the saudi consolation is stumble in 2018. italy is scrambling to relocate tho

the national bureau of economic research consists of 8 economists who gather and examine all relevant data and then make an independent determination. polls indicate that some 50 percent of the u. s. population believes the recession has already begun, despite what the president says are going to be a lot of chatter today on wall street and among pundents about whether we are in a recession and in a meeting with president biden. a number of chief executive officers agree there is no recession pointing to the notable absence of the most historically reliable sign of a downturn. a half point rise in the unemployment rate averaged over several months . by kinda august 0, washington floods in the us state of kentucky have killed at least 8 people, but that number is expected to rise. the governor has issued a status emergency and says the destruction could take several years to repair. tens of thousands of homes without power and more rain is forecast. in a word, this event is devastating. and i do believe it will end up being one of the most significant deadly floods that we have had. i

the national bureau of economic research consists of 8 economists who gather and examine all relevant data and then make an independent determination. polls indicate that some 50 percent of the us population believes the recession has already begun. despite what the president says are going to be a lot of chatter today on wall street among finance, about whether we are in a recession and in a meeting with president biden. a number of chief executive officers agree there is no recession pointing to the notable absence of the most historically reliable sign of a downturn. a half point rise in the unemployment rate averaged over several months . by kinda august 0, washington. or christine de, rita, this is deputy chief economist at moody's analytics, explains why the contraction isn't yet considered a recession. so technical recession, but it really, that's just a rule of thumb that economists use to determine if we are in recession and it usually does work. it usually is correct, but it's not perfect. and at the moment we have a number of other indicators of the official arbiters of our

is concerning, but it wouldn't fit anyone�*s definition of recession, certainly not the national bureau of economiche official chronicler of recession since the recession of 1857. the criteria requires not only negative gdp growth, but a downturn in the economy that satisfies the 3d which are depth, duration and diffusion. that's not the case here. as president biden said, if you look at the labour markets, we have been having very rapid job growth. in the labour market is very have very tight, which is indeed one of the problems. now, it is true that the economy seems to be slowing, and it will have to slow further if inflation is going to come down to defence targets. i would put the odds of recession in the next year better than 50—50, but we are certainly not there yet. i would just want to ask you about what you think about the approach of the us fed right now raising rates as aggressively as it has. is that the right strategy, should they have started sooner? the benefit of 2020 hindsight. i think they should've started i think that would've avoided some of the pain of these very large increa

is concerning, but it wouldn't fit anyone's definition of recession, certainly not the national bureau of economicis the official chronicler of recession since the recession of 1857. the criteria requires not only negative gdp growth, but a downturn in the economy that satisfies the 3d is, which are depth, duration and diffusion. that's not the case here. as president biden said, if you look at the labour markets, we have been having very rapid job growth. in the labour market is very have very tight, which is indeed one of the problems. now, it is true that the economy seems to be slowing, and it will have to slow further if inflation is going to come down to defence targets. i would put the odds of recession in the next year better than 50—50, but we are certainly not there yet. better than 50-50, but we are certainly not there yet.- better than 50-50, but we are certainly not there yet. yeah, you know, i certainly not there yet. yeah, you know. i am _ certainly not there yet. yeah, you know, i am interested _ certainly not there yet. yeah, you know, i am interested that - certainly not there ye

the national bureau of economic research consists of 8 economists who gather and examine all relevant data and then make an independent determination. polls indicate that some 50 percent of the u. s. population believes the recession has already begun. despite what the president says are going to be a lot of chatter today on wall street and among pundents about whether we are in a recession and in a meeting with president biden. a number of chief executive officers agree there is no recession pointing to the notable absence of the most historically reliable sign of a downturn. point rise in the unemployment rate averaged over several months. by canada ultra 0 washington. now the head of west african block eco ass says guineas military rule is scaled back the time table for a transition to civilian rule from 3 to 2 years. but there's been no confirmation of this from the gentile demonstrators in a capital corner, predefined about on protests to corporate end to military rules. one person died in demonstration, a large coalition of political parties and civil society organizations have

is concerning, but it wouldn't fit anyone's definition of recession, certainly not the national bureau of economic states is the official chronicler of recessions since the recession of 1857. the criteria required not only check to make negative gdp growth but a downturn in the economy that satisfies the three d's which are depth, duration and diffusion and that is not the case here. as president biden said, if you look at the labour market we have been having very rapid growth and the labour market is very hot, very tight which is indeed one of the fed's problems. it is true that the economy seems to be slowing and it will have a slow further if inflation is going to come down to the fed's target. i would put the odds of recession in the next year at better than 50-50 but the next year at better than 50—50 but we are certainly not there yet. i 50-50 but we are certainly not there yet-— there yet. i 'ust want to ask ou there yet. i 'ust want to ask you what — there yet. i just want to ask you what you _ there yet. i just want to ask you what you think- there yet. i just want to ask you what you th

they have come out in the days ahead discussing what they would deem a recession by the national bureau of economic-- economic research. not the common definition that many on wall street would consider two back-to-back negative quarters. republicans are certainly going to use that and they certainly have. they are talking about high inflation and recession. president is going to speak today about legislation he has been working on to try to get past. we learn about senator schumer and senator nancy coming to an agreement. that minimum eb tax credit, as well as health care. the elephant in the room is going to be the cdp data on whether the white house is going to consider this a recession. anna: thanks so much for joining us. annmarie hordern and washington, d.c.. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: the nasdaq up by -- 1.5%. kriti: positive negative, positive, negative again. it means we are in a technical recession. wall street's vocabulary says we not only hid that, especially with the stock markets. the market dropped. it is unclear what is actually happening. it is clear what the play is though. we hav

it is important to note the national bureau of economic bureau will not make the official call for months. this support comes following the breaking news you saw on our midday newscast yesterday. the federal reserve raising interest rates yet again. we are breaking down where your budget is expected to feel the pinch. >> reporter: after the most aggressive interest rate hike since the early 90s it is still not clear if the changes will help save off a recession. >> the current picture is plain to see. the labor market is actually type and inflation is much too high. >> reporter: as expected yesterday the federal reserve raised interest rates another reports of a percentage point for the second consecutive time. the latest means things like your credit card rates will likely climb higher among with bank and car loans. americans are already feeling the higher interest with mortgage rates nearly doubling over the past year, pending home sales have plummeted 20%. the goal is to crush consumer demand, which should ring down prices that have soared from record inflation. >> the key here will be

of negative economic growth and still strong employment? look, recession is a technical term economists use in the united states, it's decided by a group of people at the national bureauomic research. i wouldn't get too hung up on the semantics. the basic facts are the economy is adding a lot of jobs, but, and —— economic growth really is negative and appears to be getting worse all step that's a weird combination we don't normally see if. there is good news there and bad news therefore the american people. bad news therefore the american --eole. ~ . , ., , people. meanwhile, interest rates are auoin people. meanwhile, interest rates are going un- _ people. meanwhile, interest rates are going un- is — people. meanwhile, interest rates are going up. is it— people. meanwhile, interest rates are going up. is it possible - people. meanwhile, interest rates are going up. is it possible that i are going up. is it possible that that could tip the economy into a recession as the central bank is trying desperately to curb inflation, which is really hurting everyone?— inflation, which is really hurting eve one? ~ , inflation, which is really hurting eve one? ~ y , everyone? abs

is concerning, but it wouldn't fit anyone�*s definition of recession — certainly not the national bureau of economich which, in the united states is the official chronicler of recessions since the recession of 1857. the criteria required not only negative gdp growth but a downturn in the economy that satisfies the three ds, which are depth, duration, and diffusion, and that's not the case here. as president biden said, if you look at the labour market, we have been having very rapid job growth and the labour market is very hot, very tight — which is, indeed, one of the fed's problems. let's get the views of david madden, market analyst at equiti capital here in london. david, after stocking up on too many goods last year and miscalculating just how much stuff americans would want to purchase and after those numbers from walmart, the retail picture is back in focus with these numbers. it certainly is. you mentioned about the economy contracting by 0.9% in the second quarter and —1.6% in the first quarter of this year, but it's worth noting the us economy on a quarterly basis was coming from a high st

, consumer spending, business investment, we see signs of economic progress in the second quarter, as well. >> reporter: david, the national bureau of economic research is the nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that officially declares when recessions begin and end here in the united states and they look at metrics including gdp, but also including things like unemployment and jobs, which have held up despite this record inflation. many economists tonight now forecasting a recession will begin towards the end of this year or early next. david? >> yeah, a lot of competing indicators, but really it's what americans are feeling at home. rebecca jarvis tonight, thank you, as always. >>> we turn next tonight here to the big push on capitol hill tonight, democrats racing to pass that surprise breakthrough deal on climate. it would be the most ambitious climate undertaking in u.s. history. the bill would also lower prescription drug costs, health care costs, taxing the very rich and corporations to bring down the deficit. so, do they have the votes with joe manchin now onboard? rachel scott on the hill again tonight. >> reporter: today

of economic contraction which we have now. the g.d.p. figures are showing that. but also this official nonprofit academic group national bureau of economic research, they are the ones who make the official declaration of a recession and they have not called that yet. and they often don't call recessions in realime. they usually do that sort of after the recession has already begun. and what the biden administration is arguing is that that academic group look at a wide range of factors when they're considering whether or not we're in a recession. they look at the labor market. they look at household balance sheet. they look at things like that. and when you look across the economy, there are still some signs that things are going well. but of course there are other signs that things are slowing down. and so there's really that tension there. yamiche: and the tension that's there ask a lot of economic developments that you just said the g.d.p., the fed hikes, i wonder when you think about sort of -- a regular american who is watching all this, wondering what's most important and how does that impact every day americans who are

is an independent institution that will act as an arbiter in this process - this is the national bureau of economic research, but its conclusion will be made public a little later on whether there is a recession or not. for now, let's listen to baida's answer to criticisms of the recession. our labor market remains historically strong our economy has added more than nine million jobs since i became president more than a million jobs were added this quarter our unemployment is 3.6%. is approaching a historically low level of consumption, the business engines of our economy continue to move forward, there is no doubt that growth will be lower than last year, but this corresponds to the transition to stable and sustainable growth oksana, how does the economic situation in the usa compare with other countries, and to what extent was it affected by russian aggression in ukraine indeed ostape is currently very difficult to find a region in the world that would show strong economic growth. this week we saw a new imf report that issued gloomy and uncertain forecasts for the world economy and the imf also l

rule of thumb that has been used to approximate the much broader concept, which is an across the board downdraft economic activity. but it is not the formal definition. it's not with the national bureaunomic research or the economics profession used. i've been plenty critical of the administration about a variety of things. but they are not moving the goalposts here. when they say that whatever happens on thursdays number, it does not prove that we are in a recession. frankly, the people who are saying that are politically oriented people are better, and i say that someone who is no optimist about the u.s. economy. i do think we will get to recession, but the claim that we are in one if thursday's number is negative, is one that is made by people who are either ignorant of economics already think more frequently looking to make political points. >> i'm glad you said that. thank you for clarifying that, larry. let's talk about what americans are feeling. 64% of americans feel that the economy is in a recession. that's according to cnn's latest poll. i understand what you're saying, and that's technically not subtle, but that is how people feel. we are hearing a lot of spin and fancy d

is in a technical recession, the national bureau of economic research and the arbiter of when we aren still says, not yet. one of the big things they look at is jobs. but the numbers themselves, let's start there. -1.6% in the first quarter, down nearly a full percent in the second quarter. and when we look at the components, consumer spending, like i said, it only rose 1.0% at a quarterly annualized rate in the second quarter. it was 1.8% the quarter before, and when you are in a healthy economy you have personal consumption expenditures going much more quickly. 2%, 3% and more when you look at my list of elements. when you move on to services spending, up 4.1 percent, that's a very nice shift from the pandemic when nobody could go out. what's happening now is good spending is plunging. people bought a lot of stuff and now they are pulling back, particularly with prices rising. walmart, target, remember that, big inventory bill, this is why. that's probably a lack of confidence and uncertainty about things going down 2.7%. residential investment down 14%. that's housing, that's mort

the national bureau of economic research continues to say that technical recessions don't count. it seems to me that what's important is the internal numbers. the housing market getting hit by higher mortgage rates. consumers pulling back. the fed has said this has to push ahead even if that economy slows down. >> risks when it comes to china's economy as well. the best outcome for the economy, that's nice. [laughter] what does that mean? >> mine is from 5.5% to know target. it isn't offering any big stimulus either. they will dole out $220 billion over the course of the next year. they might be cutting one of the key rates from the pboc but we are seeing that yet. -- we are not seeing that yet. this is the way to avoid the unfavorable light this would cast on xi jinping and his policies to show how you are missing your target. if you don't have a target, you can't miss it. they're also saying they aren't going to help property developers. housing project must be completed and xi jinping himself saying that local governments will be supported to use their full bond quotas. they'r

the national bureau of economic research is the arbiter of recessions and usually take a couple years to say when when -- when one began and ended. in employment data, it would be hard for them to do that. i have to make a correction. -- not a correction but a clarification. it is not an official definition to say two consecutive quarters is a recession, but we have not had a recession that did not have two consecutive quarters of negative growth together. so maybe it is worth looking at. guy: you normally feel a recession before it is confirmed. does this feel like a recession? have we ever seen a recession where you have had a higher services index? ira just said these were midcycle numbers, not late cycle numbers. mike: we are seeing midcycle numbers. you look at the first quarter gdp numbers. they have everybody worried. business spending contracted. that is not a recessionary number. going back to the chart i showed earlier, it was not just exports that fell dramatically. it was imports that moved a lot because companies had imported so much in the fourth quarter, all the stuff t

you look at the economy, the official arbiter of what is a recession is going to be the national bureau of economicrch. they will decide at some time in the future. i think what we can constructively do is talk about what is the state of the economy. the labor market remains exceptionally strong. that is not what we see in past episodes that has been labeled recession. on the other hand, we see slowdown in growth. that is to be expected given how rapidly the economy grew when it was recovering from the pandemic and all of those job losses and policy was designed to do that. we should expect to see a slowdown. this economy is at full employment. so we have a slowing economy, we have a variety of risks to the outlook that i have tried to enumerate, but we have strengths in the economy. a strong labor market being one strength. consumer household balance sheets remain generally strong. credit quality is strong. you do not see some significant

the national bureau of economic research may not announce recession because of the strong labor marketht now 3.6% unemployment rate the lowest in the last 50 years. two job vacancies for every unemployed person. we feel the labor market is a driver here and will continue to maybe keep us out of recession for a little bit longer. >> let's hope. 11 million job openings. where are the workers? degas wright, thank you. have a great day see you soon take care. >>> folks, amazing how fast an hour goes. that does it on "worldwide exchange." stay tuned for breaking news prime minister boris johnson may announce any moment he is stepping down. l 're stepping down. we'lsee you tomorrow "squawk box" is next than your genetic code? that doesn't seem fair. we agree. but where you live determines access to doctors, green spaces and fresh food. that's why we grow our own. smart. we don't think it's right that some people are healthier than others just because of where they live. that's why we're delivering food to areas with less access to it, and helping schools teach kids about gardens. wish they'd