to matt are talking shay, ceo of the national retail federation. oomberg. ♪ markets.s bloomberg lately one monday, of the busier shopping days of the year. expectations are high this european the national retail federation things that sales this year.y 2.6% we have matt shay, the national retail federation's ceo. you think is driving the expectation for growth overall? it is a relatively healthy picture given a high degree of uncertainty. >> first of all, we are optimistic, and we think that 5.2%number, the 3.6% to growth over 2019, we think it is also a realistic number. we think it reflects the underlying strength in the macroeconomy and the strength that consumers have shown, the real resilience we have seen in the consumer economy over the last six month, really rebounding from february, march, april, and coming back very strong in six consecutive months now i've retail cells growth. -- now in retail sales growth. consumers are healthy. housing starts are strong. interest rates low. gas prices low. we feel we will see that over the holiday. >> d

the national retail federation says online and other nonstore sales will jump up to 30%. s are concerned today's shopping and thanksgiving travel will trigger massive new cases of the coronavirus across the nation. the u.s. yesterday surpassed 90,000 hospitalizations linked to covid-19 for the first time. another 110,000 new infections were also reported yesterday. >>> for more than a century, the salvation army's iconic red kettles during the holiday season have helped families in need. now the annual bell ringing campaign is facing new challenges with the coronavirus pandemic. elise preston explains how the organization is updating its fund-raising. >> reporter: a sound of holiday cheer and normalcy in a year that is anything but. >> it is such a difficult year for so many people. what do you tell people to give them hope? >> the message that i would want everyone and need to know this year is that they are loved, and they are cared for. >> reporter: this year, the salvation army is helping care for millions more. commissioner kenneth hotter says need for their services

blake: did east of you hear the interview with the head of the national retail federation?. >> no, i didn't. blawk blake they're bullish in the upcoming months, and i guess my question is should they be? >> yes. i mean, it depends, right? it's, like, people are consuming. americans love to consume. i think we saw this last round of fiscal stimulus in april that as soon as people got those checks, they spent the money. so i think we've had, i guess, bullish is, like, what part are you talking about, but people are buying. people are consuming. americans love to consume. and so i think if we have fiscal stimulus are again, we should expect more consumption. it might not be, you know, cruise lines and airline tickets, but it's going to be other, you know, whether it's technology or more work from home aspects, i do think it's reasonable to expect, you know, people to continue to consume. blake: scott, we wanted to talk about georgia more at the top of the show but had 020 type audio issues. do you think that story's getting the attention it deserves? >> no, i don't, and i thin

the national retail federation on the website predicts online sales will be capturing 20 to 30% of the holiday market, up from last year. there are no corporate parties and reduced inventory and fewer employees are in many stores according to consumer expert and san francisco state university marketing professor san gupta. >> the projections are because the consumer demand has been suppress sod f-- fa-- fa-- far, starting black friday and the start of the holiday shopping season, there is some sort of penalty ut up demand, p want to give gifts to family and friends to uplift spirits in a challenging year. >> reporter: there is a 20% vacancy rate right now but property owners say they are getting inquiries about the vacant sites. >> what's missing is probably the ice rink. we're unable to host the ice rink this year in civic park. that's the first time in 15 years. broadway plaza had to cancel the holiday of lights parade. >> reporter: in the end what is helping out is the magnificent weather. merchants will tell you they feel guilty they know there is a drought but they hope sustained

. >> reporter: the national retail federation predicting at least a 3.6% rise in total holiday sales, but online sales skyrocketing 20-30%. so the first planning point, stores are frontloading the best deals to give themselves more time to get products to you. many door buster deals are live now. if you see something with a seemingly good price, check it against the historical lowest price on the tracking tool camel >> it's within a few dollars of where you think it should be, go ahead and order it. >> reporter: this vacuum cleaner is on sale for $127 at kohl's. camel camel camel says it's the lowest price. grab it. walmart deals are dropping at 7:00 p.m. eastern. best buy with new deals thursday and friday including new stock online of those coveted gaming consoles sold out everywhere. let's talk about amazon. they're a little different because they really advertise their discounts but they're always competitive. pop cart automatically scans other sites and alerts you if it finds a better price. >> might change the game forever. who knows? >> it may, but some people really like getti

and the interest thing with the nrf, the national retail federation's position, i wonder if we have stronger sales but stronger profits. and obviously that's not a great thing for the vast majority of the economy. that just means that they charge more. i think the reality even with the vaccine remains what next year looks like. and i've given up right to predict a new normal. and i'm just going with the current normal. every day, it changes. so i think you're absolutely right. but the question is going to be, which of these companies, how do they emerge and what are people looking to spend? and i think we all heard "pandemic" and thought 2008, initially. and this is shaping up incredibly different than we saw in the great recession from the lasting impacts. >> if we learned anything from 2020, it's like nothing we have faced before. so there you go on that one. simeon siegel, good to have you with us this morning. thank you. >> thank you. >>> the reigning nfl mvp, lamar jackson, reportedly testing positive for coronavirus and he's not the only one on the ravens' team. details in the bleach

the national retail federation is it forecasting that holiday sales will increase between three and 5%o last year which is a jump of more than $755 billion. part of that reason is the belief that they haven't been spending things like they normally would on entertainment and travel so they may look to put that towards themselves or loved ones who had they haven't had a chance to see. >> they want to feel some sense of normalcy. did you do your shopping? >> right after this, i'm going to be on it. >> sounds good. meanwhile, e-commerce is becoming the black friday star with online sales that have skyrocketed, $62.5 billion spent on online shopping this month is up over 32%. adobe analytics says and online spending is expected to grow 33% year after year during the holiday season. now we will go back to chicago. grady trimble is there and he has more on that aspect. >> we started our day at target, just about ten people at the door and the reason for that is because this year e-commerce is where it's at. you can get your shopping done from the comfort of your couch. we are at mers apothec

the national retail federation expects sales to increase between 3.6 and 5.6% this year with stores rakingup to $767 billion millions will be doing their black friday shopping at home and online retailers like amazon are expected huge jump in sales marketing experts say is when shopping is all in the timing. >> like friday is going to be your best day to get deals on categories like tvs and appliances, but if you are in the market for toys or computers he may want to wait for the weekend following giving many consumers started their holiday shopping weeks ago since major retailers began of promotions in october right now players from two of the bay area's elite universities are warming up or a rivalry matchup . >> it is the 123rd big game with cal and sanford kickoff is just over an hour at memorial stadium in berkeley cal has the axis to break there won't be any fans in the stadium but the pandemic is forcing many of its games week long tradition to not go virtual taking a live look now at cal's virtual tailgate party berkeley fans getting the chance to countdown to kickoff over zoom. the

is what is driving it during the pandemic, online sales are huge n this case heeshgs the national retail federationxpects that online and other nonstore sales which are included in the total will increase 20% to 30%. the main theme from the national retail federation is people will spend but much is done online this year as opposed to last they do say the big question is whether consumers will go out given the uncertainty of the pandemic to show some willingness to spend so we'll continue to pour through the numbers. the forecast for sales does seem rather healthy given the pandemic over to you. >> thank you for that. no surprise kids are going online surprising that the overall increase will be greater up year over year. let's talk about this further. we're taking a look today at manufactu many of the stay at home stocks. we're seeing some names pulling back today with positive vaccine news will signalling a sooner than expected return to normal. they went down to $315 let me come you to on the sales outlook. does it surprise that you it's healthy given the uncertain year and this just very turbul

the lockdowns and strength of the consumer for the holidays we did get good news from the national retail federationhe worst economic effect from the virus is expected in the first quarter. the average there is 2.7%. inside that, jpmorgan see as negative 1% contraction. we had that for you on friday. and bark clleys over the weeken put us good egg on the first quarter. that's where the rebound comes, the economic effects seen kicking in with above trend growth predicted employers could wait until it's distributed widely before hiring or they could begin to invest and hire in anticipation of a return to normal that's morgan stanley's outlook. our first look at 2021 shows growth well above the potential at 4.2%. so stocks put on blinders to the near term challenges, looking down the road to the recovery, as long as some change in good news is coming, six months on the horizon, they seem okay. tyler, or kelly, as long as the fed stays easy, they'll be okay with that. >> steve, on a totally different but not unrelated note, i did think it was really interesting what happened with prices in the flash ism

the national retail federation is banking on that latter group, seeking retail therapy.ough, we think there's going to be a psychological factor that they owe it to themselves and their families to have a better than normal holiday. there are risks to the economy if the virus continues to spread, but as long as consumers remain confident and upbeat, they will spend for the holiday season. boris, laura. >> cristina alesci, thank you so much for that. let's jump overseas where germany's capital of berlin not using restrictions over christmas, a break from france and britain that will loosen rules. there's a surge in infections around the world right now. take a look at that. that skyrocketing red line is the united states far above any other country. even european nations with big populations are far behind the u.s. the global perception of america taking a big hit over the country's handling of the pandemic. cnn cnn's melissa bell live in europe this morning. how did europe get this right? the restrictions and lock downs are in place, but why are they doing so much better

the national retail federation predicts holiday shoppers will spend more than $755 billion this year.lready this morning, stores have plenty of customers, looking for bargains. but a lot of shoppers intend to avoid the crowds. nikki battiste is at a mall in new jersey looking at the changes for this black friday. good morning. >> michelle, good morning. the mall here just opened 15 minutes ago. so far we've seen about 50 people go in just this entrance. everyone has been wearing a mask. and i will tell you this parking lot is certainly has fewer cars this black friday. overnight, shoppers in search of a deal calmly walked into stores all over the u.s. the civility is a striking contrast to black fridays of the past. pre-mask and pre-pandemic when shoppers elbowed their way through packed crowds. shopping may look slightly different this black friday, but don't be fooled. people are spending more than last year. the national retail federation predicts holiday sales could increase by more than 5% this year, despite the pandemic. >> most of our viewers would think that is really surprisi

and the national retail federation is saying we can see growth, year-over-year where we are startingith the pandemic situation. >> i was just going to say, people are thinking what can i do to feel better, because they want to indulge and feel better, they are feeling a little sense of confidence now that we have the potential vaccines with 95% efficient, and the stock market is high, the home values are up, confidence they are and people want to spend. >> charles: that is the wealth effect that i was going to say, when brian was talking about how we are sprucing up her homes, we know that those kind of retailers have done well. but my wife, she does all the stuff in the house, but i went to buy her a thing of sherman williams paint even though it is her favorite color, you are very close to the consumer. you know what they want. what is a hot item this year anyway? are there any hot items? >> well, charles, i know that you love your dogs. i'm imagining that you will spend a fortune on the little ones, the little four-legged friends to keep them happy, but people are buying home fitn

despite everything that is going on, the national retail federation's forecasting this holiday salesill increase between 3% to 5% compared to a year ago, even with everything going on back when the world looked a whole lot different than it does now. so certainly something we can all be thankful for over the next couple of months, neil. >> neil: that is amazing and how optimistic we intend to be. thank you very much. in chicago on that, and spell it out exhortations with 5% plus boost in sales right now. a lot of them might be online and a lot waiting online. so people often do that. what does that say about the american psyche the day after we hit a thousand on the dow jones? we have stacy with us, the capital director of strategy and fox news contributor and much, much more. the optimism of the party consumers really do stand out when you think about all things vendors. and maybe precisely the vendor. what do you think? >> i agree with you. i think the covid fatigue is going to manifest in a myriad of ways and friends that they can't wait to get the vaccine so they can do revenge t

that's according to the national retail federation. people will be shopping from home more than ever this year because of the coronavirus pandemic. the federation says sales in november and december could grow over 5% from last year to over $760 billion. the figures don't include car dealers, gas stations and restaurants. the rise would be in line with recent years or even better. the federation expects online sales to be especially strong, up by as mh as 30% and nearly the $220 billion. but small and medium sized retailers will continue to struggle because of the cost of doing business online. >>> there is a rush to stores on black friday at the close of november, but this year, the coronavirus has changed people's plans. according to a recent survey, 59% of respondents are reluctant to go to shopping malls, and 47% say they plan to do most on their buying online. nhk world's yamada nata has the story. >> for the holiday i'm definitely planning to do all my shopping online. all the covid situation is making everybody stay home and i t

that money being saved, some of that is going to get spent on the holidays and you see national retail federationaise the testament for the holiday so osome of the other prognosticators is setting up to be a strong holiday season. dagen: before we move on you have ideas in terms of shopping, are we missing the fact that the brick enter brick-and-mortar retailers have online components but the stores could benefit because people are so eager to get out. >> in fact you see some retailers, not necessarily the largest chains but some of the regional ones are actually offering deals in-store only which is a challenge in some places because were seen a new phase of lockdowns and physical restrictions. they are trying to figure it out and in-store is a viable option. dagen: other than shopping yet ideas of what people should be doing with their money before the end of the year, start with health. >> listen, one thing i would say if you want to buy a house, don't wait. i continue to talk to folks who were saying and think about buying a house, do not wait, there is not a lot of supply on the market, is t

the national retail federation says that legos and other classic toys like barbie are popular this year. and so our high-tech video game consoles and this mario kart life. there is a camera on top so kids can get the racers perspective.>> you can't go anywhere so this year families are looking for things like boardgames and activity toys and things that they can all play together.>> the child is another hot item this holiday season. it comes with a remote control version. experts say that parents seeking a hot toy do not want to wait too long. the pandemic has more people buying online which could lead to those shipping delays. thank you brian. >> juliet thank you. it looks like things are drying out.>> we have been so busy around here in the weather department it is nice to say that things are very quiet.>>> having just said that, it is raining in northern california right now. take a look at the high death doppler radar. that looks pretty impressive. there is a lot of rain coming to the far northwest coast. stop it at where it is right now, and take it and put it into the future cast.

the owner of the bloomberg general store on behalf of the national retail federation. we also have john doyle president and ceo. brian leman, the chief counsel on behalf of ap cia. michelle, chief underwriting officer and an international center the witnesses are reminded that your testimony wi be limit to five minutes and you should be able to see a time that will indicate how much time is left. i would ask you to be mindful if you hear the time so we can be respectful of both the witnesses and the committee members time. your written statement will be made part of tecord you are now recognized for five mutes to give an oral presention of your testimony it is an honor to appear to discuss the pandemic risk from a policyholders perspective. i would like to give a special shout out and thanks to the congresswomen who've been a champion for the women owned businesses. women owned and operated since the get go and the house business committee the fact that this hearing is being held shows members of congress care about people on main street. the national federation has pa

exceed gross of prior seasons despite the covid panned out yeah that's according to the national retail federation anyway, which says that shoppers are looking around for opportunities to spend and celebrate the holidays during these tough times. the federation is predicting a 20 to 30% increase in online spending is people are staying home to the pandemic and the post office is getting ready for a huge number of gifts to email this holiday season again because of covid that means you need to get your shipping done earlier than normal. the post office has announced the shipping deadlines. so you get your presence to their destinations in time for christmas or whatever holiday you're hearing for the ground shipping deadline is december 15th the deadline for first class mail december 18th priority mail must be in by the 19th, if you want the package should arrive by christmas day that is and the priority mail express service deadline is december 23rd all of these dates are for shipments within the u.s.. still ahead president elect joe biden announces his first >>a local election headquarters and ton

. >> reporter: in fact, today the national retail federation said holiday sales will likely bring cheer. the trade group expects sales through december to grow by as much as 5.2%. the real reel says the line to get into the store during opening weekend was at least an hour long. so they do expect lines on black friday. social distancing will be enforced. once inside, customers won't find a crowded experience because the store will only be operating at 25% capacity. >> i don't like to do online. i think i'm -- because i'm an older citizen, i prefer like going out and touching it and feeling it. >> reporter: the retail federation said americans are spending less on travel and entertainment this season, which gives them more money to spend on other things. in palo alto, you you, kpix 5. >>> san francisco already had a sinking tower, now it's an entire neighborhood. tonight what is going on. >> either the sidewalks are sinking or the buildings are going up. >>> when president-elect joe biden enters the white house, two potential cabinet picks with bay area ties could make history. >>> plus,

the national retail federation expects sales to increase between 3.6 3.62 5.2%. with stores of breaking in up to $767 billion. small businesses are hoping for a big turnout tomorrow, small businesses have been hit hard by the economic fallout from the pandemic and with social distancing protocols in place, it is uncertain how small businesses saturday will go. now they are banking on the foot traffic from the big shopping weekend. >> they make you feel like we are family. and i think that is a very important thing, especially nowadays. >> many storeowners say they are sanitizing around the clock to make customers feel safe and comfortable while shopping. >>> health officials are blaming about atonement for a coronavirus outbreak near sentimental. the basketball facility reportedly went against health orders. it still has no plans to shut down. >>> plastic and veteran health officers as they been reaching out to the owner of quartet basketball center in rockland for months. >> they have not been responsive to our outreach, over many months. >> more than 30 people

the national retail federation expects sales to grow by as much as 30% over last year's holiday season. overall the trade group says americans are expected to spend more this year. >> it's more convenient online, but i'm kind of a visual person. i have to see it and try it out. so i like going to the stores better than online. >> reporter: santa clara county said its enforcement officers generally did not find large crowds early in the day. the primary violations have been failure to submit and post a revised social distancing protocol. fines issued today and over the weekend will not have a grace period. the county says it will have more compliance staff visiting high traffic shopping areas to look out for the public's safety through sunday. >> it's not too crowded, not too crazy. everyone is social distancing. everyone is wearing a mask. >> reporter: getting a parking spot at valley fair required a little more patience. staff helped direct cars and control traffic this evening. deamber norris usually avoids black friday crowds. >> so this time there weren't many people out because th

in fact, the national retail federation said more than 189000000 u.s. consumers shopped over the weekend and 29000, which includes thanksgiving day, black friday, small business, saturday and cyber monday. now we should.

the national retail federation predicts that overall holiday sales will be higher compared to last year but that increase in online shopping also comes with an increase of scams felicia bolton has tips on how you can say cyber safe this holiday season. the long lines and in person shopping frenzies for the holiday season are now know more since the covid-19 pandemic definitely sales took a dip and that has store owners like bring in thomas in springfield, missouri turning online to keep her doors open. this is my job, this is my full-time job so the stories. >>you know my livelihood and my family is. source of income thomas says the pandemic koester store sells to take a major death. >>and she's depending on 4th quarter holiday shopping to meet her bottom line. it's the same pressure modern society, apparel owner andrea pena says she feels as well. yes, the 4th quarter's important but speaking to this year in general every quarter has been super crucial research from harvard university's opportunity insights economic tracker reveals as of 11/8/2020 total spending by all consumers decrea

in fact, the national retail federation said more than 189000000 u.s. consumers shopped over the weekend in 2019, which includes thanksgiving day, black friday, small business, saturday, and cyber monday. now we should note that while many throughout the world also used this week as a chance to get a jump on holiday shopping, china's singles day may actually be the biggest worldwide. in fact, e-commerce behemoths ali baba expanded its singles day offering to take place over 11 days this year and nearly doubled sales to more than 70 $5000000000.00.

and in fact, the national retail federation said more than 189000000 u.s. consumers shopped over the weekend and 2019 which includes thanksgiving day, black friday, small business, saturday, and cyber monday. we should note that while many throughout the world also use this weekend as a chance to get a jump on the holiday shopping, china's single day may actually be the biggest worldwide. in fact, e-commerce behemoths ali baba expanded its single day offering to take place over 11 days this year and nearly doubled sales to more than 70 $5000000000.00. and that's ali baba alone, while black friday was one thing now known for outrageous door busters that caused consumers to line up in front of big box stores like target, wal-mart and best buy 2019 was the 1st year in which more people shopped online than in store for the most part, sales figures have continued to trend up over the last 2 decades. but the covert 19 pandemic has thrown a wrench in.

i would like to note the national retail federation is a member of the business continuity coalition. they seek that on widespread availability and affordability of non-damaged business interruption insurance coverage but also restoration and expansion pandemic coverage and other lines. this includes production, -- liability and other lines that been hard-hit by covid-19. the pandemic risk insurance ask what is twp. a program that help businesses obtain insurance coverage for pandemic model on the program for terrorism insurance established following 9/11. when businesses do not obtain coverage for act of terrorism after 9/11 congress stepped in. it's time for washington to do the same for the pandemic. not any independent life worlde impact but when one occurs it is likely again result in nearly total -- this legislation is a cornerstone of the proactive in managing the risk and impacts of the pandemic in the future. it's time for real solution to solve a real problem. thank you for inviting here and i'm ready for any questions you may have. >> i do so much, ms. cantrl. mr. doyle, yo

so right now, the national retail federation trade group, like many during the early season conference, said that they will not be coming out of the forecast until later this month, given so much uncertainty. but deloitte is only expecting total sales to rise around one percent during this period compared with the 4 percent increase last year and will keep an eye on that definitely in the coming weeks boom, bust coast christiane, our c.e.o. of optimist. also thank you both for your type. thank you. and the president, the european commission says the 1st citizens in the e.u. could be vaccinated before the new year as we just heard there. the e.u. has made agreements with 6 potential vaccine makers to purchase more than 800000000 doses. nearly double the population of the blot commission president addressed the e.u. lawmakers on wednesday and spoke about the toll the pandemic was taking on the block was nearly 3000 deaths a day. covered 19 was the cause. number one for deaths in the e.u. last week. hospitals remain not distress and in some regions, intensive care units overwhelm the 1st

and now michelle, we got a bigger how would a shopping week starting the national retail federation said monday, it expects holiday sales to rise between 3.6 and 5.2 percent this year for year over year. that is to say, now that would bring in sales as much as $766000000000.00 during the season. amid the pandemic, we're still seeing millions unemployed and a lack of another stimulus package here in the united states. what are you seeing in the retail sector right now? well, what's interesting about the retail sector is that it doesn't necessarily, oh, is not, are how much consumers vine gets what they use to pay for it. and there was an interesting survey that came out that said 65 percent of consumers right now have not put aside any money for the holidays. so what are they planning to do? they're planning to increase their credit card debt. now happily credit card debt had actually gone down because of travel and leisure earlier in the air. but now the anticipation is that that can go up when you have an older generation that's already taking their debt into their retirement. so that's

in fact, the national retail federation said more than 189000000 u.s. consumers shopped over the weekend in 2019, which includes thanksgiving day, black friday, small business, saturday, and cyber monday. now we should note that while many throughout the world also used this week as a chance to get a jump on holiday shopping, china singles day may actually be the biggest worldwide. in fact, e-commerce behemoths ali baba expanded its singles day offering to take place over 11 days this year and nearly doubled sales to more than 70 $5000000000.00. and that's ali baba alone, while black friday was once a now known for outrageous door busters that caused consumers to line up in front of big box stores like target wal-mart and best buy. 29000 was the 1st year in which more people shopped online than in store. for the most part, sales figures have continued to trend up over the last 2 decades. but the covert 1000 pandemic has thrown a wrench in the works. the fact that many stores will not have in person a bed due to the pandemic, as well as millions of ameri

according to the national retail federation retail sales between november and december are expected to go up between 3.5 and 5% compared to last year. in fact, sales could top $766 billion. however, the group says any further shutdowns could derail some of those sales. >>> coming up, bay area airports seeing their busiest days since march despite warnings not to travel this holiday. where people are flying and how they feel about it. >>> up first, new revelations about an alleged bribery scream involving a bay area shr-f's department. why an apple executive is now a defendant as well. >>> here we are looking at the holiday week forecast. i will have the 5 day when we see you in a little bit >>> new details about a scream involving concealed weapon permits and the sheriff's office. prosecutors, the head of security for apple is recused in this case. ktvu crime reporter has more on the growing scandal. >> ipads and san jose sharks box seat ticket that is what jeff rosen says were offered as bribes to the sheriff's office. >> this scheme to give weapon permits for money and expensive favo