. >> in nbc's news partnership with the des moines register poll, donald trump has an unprecedented lead of nearly 30 points. never before seen such a big lead in this caucus. with all eyes on the battle for second place, nikki haley has moved ahead of ron desantis for the first time in the poll, but she may have peaked too soon. more on that in a moment. we'll have a full breakdown in moments and talk to the governor of new hampshire. rnor of new hampshire >>> good day, everyone. it's here. it's the first voting day of the 2024 election. i'm andrea mitchell in washington. this martin luther king day is also caucus day in iowa. the first of the nation presidential nominating contest of 2024. more than 1600 hall rs gearing up through iowa's 99 counties. there's no early voting, no mail-in ballots so it's all about turn out today. the brutal sub zero windchills could make this the coldest caucus night in history but the temperature might not be the only records being smashed. the poll shows former president trump in a commanding 28 point lead. if that's what we see from voters tonight, tha

our final nbc news "des moines register" poll shows donald trump maintaining his nearly 30-point leadr the rest of the field with a tight race for second place. one major and potentially dangerous obstacle stands in the way, arctic cold temperatures with life-threatening windchills. >> this is truly cold, but we're going to keep on going anywhere and everywhere. we're going to go all the way until the last hour. >> most people are predicting that it will be a smaller turnout than maybe in 2016, for example. if that's true, our folks are motivated to come out. >> you can't sit home. if you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, i got to make it. even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it, remember. >> we have extensive coverage with correspondents across iowa all day on this crucial story. we vaughn, you'll following the leading candidate former president donald trump in iowa. what can we expect? >> reporter: this is the first step toward donald trump winning the nomination again of the republican party and sending a clear message to his republican rivals that this party is still

the nikki haley campaign loving the upward trend in the new nbc news-des moines register poll in iowarning signs in the data, too. only a small number of caucusgoers say they're enthusiastic about caucusing for haily and in temperatures like this, that could make all the difference. the haley campaign brushing off concerns of a turnout. instead, they're focussed in getting in second and not focused on donald trump, but instead on ron desantis. their hope is that this can come down to a one-on-one race, trump versus haley as they head into new hampshire and some polls in the granite state show haley within striking distance of the former president there. kate? >> ali, thank you. >>> ron desantis is polling not far behind nikki haley and our dasha burns is in iowa covering his campaign. dasha, what has desantis been focusing on? >> governor has bet big on the caucuses pouring the vast majority of his resources into iowa. so the stakes are especially high for him. he needs to have a good showing moving forward, but one factor keeping his team's hopes high. the low temperatures and they b

there is a new nbc des moines register media poll that confirms trump's lead. it is one of the reasons die hard supporters are enduring bitter cold to rally with the former president. nbc's vaughn hillyard caught up with some of them a short time ago. >> voters in iowa, they question if trump supporters will show up on caucus day. >> absolutely. >> i live three blocks of my caucus location, i can walk to it if we want. two >> to, miles i'll be there. >> did you stop for a moment to thank you wouldn't come out? >> no. no. >> how long are you willing to wait in these temperatures? >> i could walk back to my jeep over there. >> we'll get it eventually. >> it is a cold day and i, certainly. nbc correspondent art like snow, they're blanketing the hawkeye state from the halls to the diners, to the parking lots. they are covering all the building drama as the clock ticks down to caucus day. right now, nbc's garrett haake is in iowa. that is what donald trump is going to speak at a rally at simpson college. that is scheduled for an hour or so from now. it is a balmy, ne

the final nbc news des moines register poll is coming out this weekend. ted precaucus poll. so stay tuned for that. i can show you where things stand. this is our last nbc des moines register poll. it's the story we have been seeing so far. donald trump with this wide lead. nikki haley who has moved closer to ron desantis over the summer, perhaps a battle for second there. you see christy on here. since dropped out of the race here. these have been the dynamics we have been looking for. we will see in the final poll if there is any late surprises, anything that it flags for us monday night. one of the questions pending monday night, too, is what comes next here? obviously, you talk about desantis, the stakes for him, he is going all in. he needs a dramatic showing here given the time he has invested, the endorsements he received, the voters he pursued there. nikki haley is an interesting story because she is trying to get second place at least over ron desantis. what she wants is momentum for new hampshire because what's notable is compare the iowa polling

a head by 48 percent to 20 percent for nikki haley to 16 percent for rhonda santas, that's an nbc des moines register pool. and that shows hailey jumping up one spot, leapfrogging over to sanders who had been number 2 in previous polls. but trump's voters are largely rural. that means varying areas that are not as well cleared from snow. they may have a while to drive, so it will be an effort for them, but they've shown commitment lining up outside of his rally on sundays. so on caucus day, it's likely to be cold. and it will be the hardiest voters who decide who wins. john henry and l g 0, des, moine, iowa. okay, that's the main money inside of next inside story looks and what it will take us around to end the school and also to $6.00 the the brought to you by visit cut off is not on common lee. i see 12 is accompanied by wall and files. we have those new western australia and the heat wave is still represented by marble. bar 44 has been 43 or more 94 days on and lower case in all of the west australia. admittedly, there are few channels arrive at the rear, which is where it should be. seas

that was in an nbc des moines register pool. well, on caucus day. it was the other way around for the 2nd place. position with haley coming in at 19 percent. and descent is edging pastor at roughly 21 percent. so as the candidates go towards new hampshire, the next race in this contest and then to south carolina, nicky hayley's home state. she's well positioned in both of those glazes. it is clearly at least a 3 person race. the background, the swami was the number 4 candidates coming at about 7 percent. well behind all the others. and he decided this would be the end of it. he ended his campaign leaving street 3 strong candidates headed to new hampshire. john henry, now here 0. des moines. iowa, talk for a short break here, and i'll just hear about when we come back to me in new york where demonstrators are heating the streets, marching to the united nations. forgot the in depth analysis of the today's headlines. how does south africa to it's accusations of genocide, in this case, many genocide in holocaust scholars including his ravings con, confi

according to the latest nbc news des moines iowa, des moines register iowa poll, out of iowa, in just a few minutes, i'll talk to the chair of the democratic national committee about that. and, about iowa, and about the caucuses colliding with martin luther king holiday tomorrow. and about what his party needs to do, to not just unify against the eventual republican nominee, but to bring disaffected democrats, black voters specifically, back into the fold, ahead of november. let's check on the latest from iowa, however, with nbc's priscilla thompson in sioux city. priscilla, please start with the weather, any concern that it will affect the voting tomorrow? >> yeah reverend al, there is certainly concern that this could dampen turnout, especially among the campaigns. it is why you have seen the candidates out on the trail over the past several, days urging their supporters to get out and caucus, to brave that wetter. and let me tell you what type of weather we are talking about here. we are talking about sub zero temperatures, wind chills that are going to make it feel more like negat

we're going to have the final nbc news des moines poll, the one everybody waits for before every caucus have so far, the most recent nbc news "des moines register" poll from a few weeks ago, and what it tells us about the haley, desantis battle in second place. overall, we found trump with the gigantic lead. tightly bunched together, so if desantis is going to get second, what is he relying on, what is holding him back so far. let's take that piece first. so desantis, this is interesting, if you just ask iowa republicans if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidates, it's not like they've looked at desantis and said i don't like the guy. they like him a lot. very popular among iowa republicans, 66-29, somewhat significantly more popular than nikki haley against iowa republicans. the progress for desantis has been he has been pursuing a lot through messaging, endorsements. he has been trying to go after voters who like donald trump as well. and the issue he seems to be running into is simply that voters are saying, iowa republicans are saying they like desantis, but they

we begin this morning with our new nbc news "des moines register" poll, and i'm joined by steve kornackik it all down. here we go. >> the nbc poll with "the des moines register," they have been doing this for decades and have one of the best polls in the 6 business, and what do they find on the eve of the caucuses, donald trump continue to have an enormous lead and trump at 48%. nikki haley now in second place here at 20%, passing ron desantis who is at 16. vivek ramaswamy at 8% in terms of any change from our previous poll which was done last month. we do see trump down a tick, as we said, haley moving there into second place, and ramaswamy into second place. and this puts trump lead in some perspective. the 48% that he's registering here, that is the highest share for a republican candidate in a final des moines register poll ever that surpasses the record of 43% from george w. bush on the eve of the 2,000 caucuses. bush won those caucuses and also the margin. trump, 48%, that's a 28-point margin. that is also the biggest margin in a final register poll, also breaking a record of georg

in the new nbc des moines register media com poll confirms donald trump's dominant league and his supporters are bearing that out, facing down the elements to hear him speak today. in fact, nbc's vaughn hillyard has been talking to them about the determination to show up. >> it was terrible, i couldn't feel my legs, couldn't feel anything. my nose was cold, i even had icicles on my glasses. because i want to see donald trump. obviously. and support him. and i think it shows character sitting out here in waiting to support him. >> there was a boss that i waited in a little bit, that was nice. but i was definitely long, cold. you could tell people, everybody just wanted to get inside, but it was worth it again. it might be cold but the energy is high, so they just want to get in. >> we have a panel of reporters ready to go for you throughout the day's developments. let's start with nbc's aly vitaly near fort todd, she's driving all over -- so ali, what is the haley campaign say, and what is the take on these new polls? >> look, they're feeling good about the new polls, alex. the fact that we'r

this is our last nbc news des moines register poll, a few weeks old now.he story we have been seeing all year so far in the run up to these caucuses. donald trump, with this wide lead, nikki haley, who has moved close to ron desantis over the summer, perhaps a battle for second there. and you see christie on here, obviously has since dropped out of the race here. but these have been the -- looking for so far. we will see in the final poll if there is any movement, any late surprises, anything that flags for us to look out for on monday night. but one of the questions that is pending monday night's, what comes next here? and obviously you talk about desantis, the stakes for him, he is basically going all in on iowa, it seems. he really needs a dramatic showing here, given the time he has invested, given all of the endorsements he has received, the voters he has pursued there. nikki haley is an interesting story, because he she is trying to get second place around santa's. but what she wants is momentum for new hampshire. because what's notable is that compa

joining me now, nbc's garrett haake in des moines, iowa. i mean, garrett, folks have got to be talking about how much the weather might impact their monday night plans. what are you hearing about that? do you think it's going to dampen turnout? >> yeah, i think that's the expectation of all of these campaigns. most of the iowans i've talked to here, as we are in negative one here in the morning now, that's why this texan is indoors, i don't know that we'll get back above zero until after the caucuses are over. all of the campaigns starting to make contingency plans will to keep their offense going, to try to juice turnout, get a couple more those caucus commitments, see how many more people that can get lined up before the hawkeye koch i start in earnest on monday night. we're also hearing from the candidates themselves that are canceling events or trying to find some way to still communicate to urge their folks to show. a year was donald trump on radio this morning, on exactly this topic. >> it's gonna be interesting, but we have great peo

state, even as trump is projected to run away with a contest, that is according to the latest nbc news des moinester poll. and trump's die hard supporters are seizing their moment, trudging through the snow today just to catch a glimpse of their candidate. >> nothing bothers me. as long as i have some heat somewhere, i'll be fine. we have this weather all the time. it barely started this morning. but it started. >> i feel like supporters for trump are very -- they are very passionate, and definitely very passionate about him. so, they are willing to go through the conditions to see him. they will do more. >> we have a panel of passionate reporters and place across iowa, covering all the candidates for us. first, we go to nbc's correspondent ali vitali, who is in ames, iowa. she's been in fact all over the state tracking the haley campaign. another welcome to my friend, as we have haley's polling numbers. they have improved. but is she acting like she's running for second place to trump? >> reporter: alex, as we so often do, we have a plan for these live shots. of course, i am at this location to

that's an nbc des moines register pool. and that shows hailey jumping up one spot leapfrogging over to sanchez who had been number 2 in previous polls. but trump's voters are largely rural. that means varying areas that are not as well cleared from snow. they may have a while to drive, so it will be an effort for them, but they've shown commitment lining up outside of his rally on sundays. so on congress day, it's likely to be cold, and it will be the hardiest voters who decide who wins. john henry and al jazeera des moines, iowa. the equity was president, says old prison staff members who had been taken hostage by inmates, happened freed, hundreds of soldiers moved into the call to taxi prison following the good negotiations with inmates an order being restored. 158 guns, 20 prison stock members were taken hostage on monday in several facilities of his underground pits. he is following developments from the fort set to acquire a key made with it. that was the only fault of mine. after 6 days of uncertainty and anguish, a m

according to the nbc news des moines register media com poll november, 80% of republican caucusgoersorder security was an issue extremely important to them. how do immigration issues play if iowa? >> in two ways. i think when you see it in the media, when you hear the different candidates talk about immigration and villainize it, latinos coming into iowa and states across the midwest. in particular, your rural areas that are dying. that are literally declining in population. latinos, young latinos, are providing a, an energy boost. both in terms of filling much needed agricultural position. filling needs such as nursing aides, caring for the elderly, the children. they recognize that there is trouble and they need literally new blood, new energy and they welcome that that rhetoric, that red meat of the antiimmigrant still dominates. >> and matthew, so the new hampshire primaries are one week from tomorrow. how do you think what happens tonight will have an impact on new hampshire? >> well, i think two things. first, i'll say about immigration for me, republicans use immigration issue

reporter: a sudden whiteout marking just one layer of this triple winter threat maggie vespa, nbc news, des moines, iowa >> all right for more on all this, let's turn to al roker. al, what are the areas of greatest concern as we go into the night >> lester, it's flooding and severe weather. 75 million people from new england all the way down into the carolinas, under flood watches and warnings you can see, we have heavy rain along the coast. tornado watches into this evening from florida all the way on up into virginia, and you can see wraparound snow now from green bay, chicago, all into burlington, vermont. and we've got the risk of 21 million people under severe weather for wind gusts of 75 miles per hour strong tornadoes, ef-2 or stronger, nocturnal tornadoes, twice as deadly we're watching that. heavy rain, 1 to 3 inches as you get up into new england upwards of six inches of snow in northern maine. 1 to 6 inch as you get into the great lakes another storm behind this one we'll have complete details tomorrow morning on "today. we'll see you then. >> al, thanks very much >>> now to the news ke

nbc's alice barr. >> reporter: hi there. from a snowy and frigidly cold des moines, iowa. and this arctic blast really is going to be a significant factor in terms of turnout for the iowa caucuses when forecasters are anticipating windchills potentially as low as negative 45. that is wild. it is also dangerous. the other numbers, of course, that we are following, a new poll from nbc news, the des moines register, and media com showing former president trump with a nearly 30-point lead over his next closest rival. that lead even more commanding among first-time caucusgoers. and that points to the enthusiasm this poll shows for former president trump compared to other contenders. which could be decisive in terms of who actually goes out to caucus monday night. former u.n. ambassador nikki haley in second place in the new poll ahead of florida governor ron desantis. and entrepreneur vivek ramaswamy. i thought this was interesting. the poll shows nearly half of haley's iowa backers say they would vote for president biden over former president trump. that's a sharp break from m

then, the nbc news des moines register poll came out and there were numbers in there that were huge redlags. not just about enthusiasm for her, which was not really there, but also when people were asked about their second choice and she was like the third second choice of people. i kept asking the question yesterday, could we see a situation where ron desantis, who everybody was counting as dead, his pat -- campaign was dead, could he come in second? it looks tonight, he is coming in second. but back to what amy said, what is his pathway? what is nikki haley's pathway? no matter who wins new hampshire or south carolina? tonight shows us that officially , the republican party is donald trump's party. everyone else is just wasting their time if they think they will topple him. geoff: picking up on jonathan's point, returning to these ap surveys where they spoke to caucus-goers, if you look at caucus-goers who identify as conservative, 63% go for trump. look at the voters who identify as moderate. 41%, 44% excuse me, they are also going for trump. >> many moderate voters registering the e

in an interview with nbc news and the des moines register, desantis is going after haley,c implied newpshire mattered more than iowa. >> you know iowa starts it. you know that you correct it. you know that you continue to go -- >> i think it's a slap in the face to iowans. >> if i didn't love iowa, i wouldn't keep coming. if we're going to have fun, i'm going to say something funny tomorrow about south carolina or new hampshire. >> she's phony. she's trying to be relatable but doesn't get iowa. >> let's bring in brendan buck, former advisor to boehner and ryan. let's talk nikki haley and ron desantis. what are they doing right now? could we see something change in the next 11 days? i know the polls say donald trump is the frontrunner. are you sure he is going to continue to be the frontrunner after iowa and new hampshire? >> iowa has a history of moving around late. you wouldn't want to rule anything else. the problem is that unlike most candidates, trump's supporters are very dedicated to him. that's the big problem whether you are talking about in iowa or if one of the people has a g

there has been a brand new poll, it's an nbc des moines register pull. that's what everyone really looks forward to when these just before the caucus day, it's the last pull to come out and it shows that the race has changed just a little bit. donald trump is still way ahead of all of the other in that pole, with 48 percentage points more than the next 3 candidates combined. but nikki haley has surpassed rhonda santa, she's getting 20 points in that pull this address is getting 16 he had previously been in 2nd place. and then vic, rama swami is a distant 4th at 8 percent. and so this is all about expectations. so if nikki haley can improve her standing compared to trump, she can at least meet expectations in a run to sanders can defy those polos and leap from haley and do well, she would be exceeding expectations. and is it really tough for donald trump? although we so far ahead of he doesn't beat the other candidates by huge margin 8 will be considered a disappointment for him. and then of course they're usually 3 people who come out of the iowa caucus

after donald trump got $48.00 and randa santa is coming in 3rd at 16 percent, that was in an nbc des moines register pool. well, on caucus day. it was the other way around for the 2nd place position with hayley coming in at 19 percent. and the centers edging pastor at roughly 21 percent. so as the candidates go towards new hampshire, the next race in this contest and then to south carolina, nicky hayley's home state. she's well positioned in both of those glazes. it is clearly at least a 3 person race. the background, the swami was the number 4 candidates coming at about 7 percent. well behind all the others. and he decided this would be the end of it. he ended his campaign leaving street 3 strong candidates headed to new hampshire. john henry, now here 0. des moines. iowa, on spring in scotland because he's a professor of us and international politics at university college dublin. he joins us now from bombing and scot. this was a record breaking win for trump despite the they said it's a call that we were talking about was minus 26 degrees celsius. and despite to the flu of court cases tha

for nikki haley to 16 percent for rhonda santas as an nbc des moines register pool. and that shows haley jumping up one spot, leapfrogging over to sanders who had been number 2 in previous polls. but trump's voters are largely rural. that means varying areas that are not as well cleared from snow. they may have a while to drive, so it will be an effort for them, but they've shown commitment lining up outside of his rally on sundays. so on caucus day it's likely to be cold. and it will be the hardy is voters who decide who wins. john henry and al jazeera des moines, iowa is quite small as swearing in a new president. bennett, a revenue whose promise to make the justice system will fight and cracked down on corruption. he won the election held in august, but then face legal challenges from conservatives and parliament will have to fight an appeal baffle in carrying out his reforms with the establishment. politicians squeezing his budget for health and education, while indigenous communities remain wary of his commitment to that rights. that is getting more in this with

however, according to the new nbc news in des moines registry poll, the final poll between -- tomorrow'sit might not actually matter. donald trump, the twice impeached ex president, who is currently facing 91 criminal charges, still maintains a commanding lead over his rivals. the survey finds that trump has the backing of the most enthusiastic and committed likely caucus goers, which could mean everything given the brutal weather across iowa, the coldest that state has seen in decades. and with that, in trump's victory appearing to be a foregone conclusion, who places second is the story to watch for. now if this polling is right, that person will be trump's former u.n. ambassador nikki haley. -- spoke exclusively with nbc news about her biggest competition tomorrow, ron desantis, the governor of florida. >> i mean, he's only played in iowa. he's invisible in new hampshire, he's invisible in south carolina, his fourth and fifth place in both of those. >> now, before we get going tonight, i want to let you know what iowa native mike draper had to say about this year's caucus is telling t

. >> reporter: a new nbc news des moines register media poll shows mr. trump with a nearly 30 point lead over former u.n. ambassador nikki haley, followed by florida governor ron desantis, and entrepreneur vivek ramaswamy. all crisscrossing the state, even as their supporters grapple with the prospect of a trump win. >> i think he's in it for himself more than he is for representing the american people. >> but you would still vote for him? >> he's still a conservative, i would still vote for him. >> iowans used to being targeted for their vote, taking their role seriously. >> there's a lot of strong women here with a lot of strong opinions. >> reporter: as the nation sets its sights on the first nominating contest of the 2024 presidential race. one more interesting note from that new poll, it shows that haley backers are breaking the republican mold with more than half saying they would vote for president biden over former president trump if he becomes the nominee. >> wow, interesting there. okay, so, alice, you used to live in iowa. can you give us a se

and according to the last and final poll before caucus day, a new nbc news des moines register poll shows donald trump maintaining his commanding lead over his rivals. that is not unexpected. right now, 48% of likely caucus goers say the twice impeached, and quadruple indicted ex president has their vote. that is an almost 30 point lead over former u.n. ambassador nikki haley, who came in second with just 20%. florida governor ron desantis, he is in third place, with 16%, followed by vivek ramaswamy at 8%. now compared to the last poll taken back in december, haley received the largest jump in support. she is now up to four points. this morning, she picked up a major endorsement from maryland's former governor larry hogan, in a clear sign that she is feeling horror momentum, that she is actually hitting her stride, at least in -- she did something that she has rarely done on the campaign trail, she distanced herself from her former boss, and, let's say trump's legal exposure. here is haley a short time ago, speaking exclusively to nbc news. >> well i think he's got court cases to deal wit

president trump enters the night with a clear lead over nikki haley and ron desantis in the final nbc news/des moines register/mediacom poll. our team is in place covering it all this evening. hallie jackson starts us off. >> reporter: tonight a brutal freeze and below zero wind chill on caucus night with candidates carefully crisscrossing iowa. but despite the low temperatures high expectations for former president trump. >> you can't sit home. if you're sick as a dog, you say darling, i've got to make it. even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it. >> reporter: new polling shows mr. trump 28 points ahead of the rest of the field, with florida governor ron desantis slipping to third just behind former u.n. ambassador nikki haley, who's taking attacks from her rivals. >> she loses to everybody. and she's really not much of a republican. >> reporter: mr. trump has visited iowa less often than his competitors, but his sons here as surrogates. >> there's been criticism that your father's legal issues have distracted him from the campaign. is that a shadow hanging over this campaign right now? >>

. >> reporter: the most recent nbc news "des moines register poll" shows 63% of first-time caucusgoersoften new to politics or new to iowa plan to support the former president. >> i look at everybody, but he's my only choice. >> reporter: trump's ability to recruit first-time caucusgoers like leroy and turn them into active volunteers key to his strength here. >> i just want to support trump because he's putting america first, and that's the biggest reason why i'm out here. >> reporter: but trump isn't alone in drawing new caucusgoers. ryan clair voted for joe biden in 2020. now he's crossing over to caucus for nikki haley. >> i feel like there needs to be a new generation that comes in the white house. it can't be trump or biden. >> reporter: tonight, the snow and treacherous conditions causing every campaign to cancel some events. something that could make it that much harder for mr. trump's competitors to shake up this race with just three days to go. lester. >> all right, garrett, thanks for braving it in the snow. >>> the faa says it is increasing oversight of production at boeing

nbc's garrett haake is with the trump campaign in des moines. >> usa! >> one day from now we're going to win. >> reporter: donald trump closing out his iowa campaign with one final rally. urging supporters not to let cold or complacency keep them from caucusing. >> so brave the weather and go out and save america, because that's what you're doing. this is really about saving our country. >> reporter: the former president enjoying a historic lead in the final nbc news des moines register poll with 48% of likely caucus goers saying they'll support trump, more than double the backing of second-place candidate nikki haley, a top target at today's rally. >> she's not up for the job. i can tell you. i don't want to be mean. >> reporter: trump supporters also the most likely to say their minds are made up and to describe themselves as extremely enthusiastic about their candidate. excited to caucus despite the cold. how cold would it have to be for you to not go caucus? >> an astronomical probably 80 below. >> reporter: how concerned are you that the weather mi

this is the final nbc news des moines registry iowa pole ahead of tomorrow's caucuses. trump, his lead is down ever so slightly, by the way. this is what was in december, 51. now he is at 48. you can see that he has 28 point lead over his next closest competitor, nikki haley. nikki haley's first choice support, meanwhile, rose from 60 to 20 points. ron desantis support has slipped three points from last month, 19 to 16. vivek ramaswamy is an out below, heat remains below 10%. the current record margin of victory in the iowa republican caucus says for a non incumbent candidates is 13 points. that was set by bob dole in 1980. trump wins to more by anything remotely close to what these polls were predicted, he won't make history. that's an addition to the history that donald trump is already making and be the first former president to be running for office while under criminal indictment. anything can happen and iowa. the winter weather there is perilous to say the least. the caucus format can't be challenging in terms of getting up the vote. here is how tomorrow will work

joining me now is nbc's garrett haake, joining me from des moines. you, garrett, getting a sense of the record breaking temperatures expected monday are going to impact turnout? i mean, look, folks in iowa or winter hardy, but this hearty? >> that's right. well, look. it certainly unpleasant, but one of the wrinkles in it is that the caucus is not a primary, which means are not going about people waiting in line around the block, or outside the building to get into their local precinct and vote throughout the course of the day. you show up at the appointed time, some of it opens the door, and everybody goes inside for process that will be entirely indoors so, basically, if you make it from your front steps or your car in your driveway, you can probably make it into caucus without being too exposed to this cold. nevertheless, these campaigns aren't taking any chances here. you played some of the sound from ron desantis and nikki haley, trying to urge their folks to come out. the campaigns are stocking up on trying to find their volunteers who have fou

the nbc news des moines register shows 40% support among likely caucus voters. nikki haley is up 20%. ron desantis is at 16%. a one wildcard factor, the winter weather could impact turnout across the strait. the plus of snow last week, iowa could see its coldest caucus day in decades. i feel, my instinct is to ask you to place wager on who will win this caucus. it would be the easiest bet i would ever ask you to make. >> would you like to put $1,000 on it? i'm looking to come up. i'm looking to come up with shoe money. look, what's so interesting about iowa, and having been at the caucuses this time, 2020, four years ago, at a primary, it usually surprises you. the last time the des moines registered poll had some serious issues. therefore, the poll had a impact on the race. but, voters and iowa, they look to this last des moines register poll, this year, and conjunction with nbc news, as a barometer on what to do when they go to caucus. i think the numbers showing trump with this chasm of a lead, and nikki haley edging out desantis, it is key. the people who do

joining us now in des moines, indiana, is nbc news correspondent, vaughn hillyard, so talk to us about what you discovered? >> reporter: we talked so much about the silent majority, those were donald trump's own words to describe the movement that was around him. let's be clear, not only does polling bear this out, but also our conversations with the folks on the ground here in iowa and around the country that those opposed to donald trump, they are silent, by and large, but also the minority, not the silent majority, which has made it difficult in their conversations with their friends and their family, and those in their community when talking about donald trump. take a listen to a few of the folks, though, who were willing to speak to us on camera. >> people go below the belt and take after donald trump. donald trump goes below the belt. >> kyle claire fell in love with politics in 2015 because of donald trump. >> he made jokes on stage, you know, he had these big fun rallies. >> no place like being at a trump rally. >> but now a junior at the university of iowa and a college republ

>> reporter: look, this latest poll from the des moines register and nbc news also bolsters their confidence. over the last year they've built an organization that's ready to turn out despite the cold, when you're looking at donald trump not only are they looking at turning out first-time caucus-goers this nbc news poll showing earning 56 mkt of their support but he's also looking to convert those who didn't caucus for him. i talked to gentleman, 27-year-old evangelical back in 2016 supported marco rubio, he told me's caucusing tonight for donald trump. from a few folks at this final campaign event who told 34e why they're showing up. what's the likelihood that trump supporters will show up tonight to caucus. >> 100%. >> 100%. this is iowa. >> why for you guys in. >> because it's crucial. >> it's crucial. >> for our country. >> he just has to be our president. >> how much do you think donald trump wins by tonight? >> at least 50%. at least. >> he's our man. he's our guy. >> those two women on the right, first-time caucus goers, the event an all-star cast of maga supporters of donald trump. m

according to a des moines register nbc news poll.wa poll which has a storied history of capturing the final movements in this race shows that donald trump is at 48% in the poll. the race for second place is a fascinating one with nikki haley edging out florida governor ron desantis just narrowly. nikki haley has 20% in the poll, followed by desantis at 16. the rest of the field is far below, vivek ramaswamy 8%, the rest goes down from there. but it is the top of the field showing that donald trump still has an overwhelming commanding lead of this race. his supporters are the most committed. the reason some of this matters of course is weather has been a central concern here, blizzard warnings and dangerously cold weather, those committed supporters may be the answer to who shows up at the caucuses here on monday night in iowa. haley clearly is riding a wave of momentum. although the poll finds that her supporters are not as committed or enthusiastic as others. it also shows some 68% of people have made up their minds. a quarter of io

des moines. as i understand it, you'll have the results of the final des moines register nbc news poll this morning. iowa tends to provide an initial signal of which direction a presidential election is headed, as we likely all know by now. what is that poll revealing? >> well, kira, i'm thrilled to be inside as well. it's warm and toasty in here. the poll is fascinating. it shows former president trump with a really commanding lead over the entire field, nearly a 30-point lead over his nearest rival is nikki haley. she's edged her way into second place. we're watching to see if trump wins, how big of a margin. then that all-important race for second place. governor ron desantis is focused almost exclusively on the state of iowa. can he come in second place here? if he doesn't, can he continue with his campaign? he's already announced stops in south carolina and new hampshire. but boy, it's going to be tough if he doesn't have a strong showing in iowa. >> it will be interesting to see the results of those polls. i understand you have steve kornacki with you and you have interviews with joni ernst f

joining me now from des moines iowa is nbc news correspondent vaughn hillyard. vaughn, i will not ask the obvious about how cold it is, but you have to set the stage for us. talk about how the extreme weather in iowa could actually dictate the outcome of monday. >> okay, my friend, we are standing in here in this isn't just nothing here. i know that you are in new york today, where it's actually a balmy 60 degrees, but your family down miami right now, he did next is 89. i was looking this up in miami. here at the windchill is negative 20. we're talking about 105-degree difference here between miami and des moines right, now it's only going to plummet even more heading into monday night, and that is where the question is how does this impact the caucus monday night here. we've already seen donald trump canceled both of his rallies today. he canceled more than four tomorrow. there are questions about nikki haley and ron desantis's events going forward. normally, this is chaos here at the weekend before the caucus, and this is the go time for nikki haley amongst u

nbc's dasha burns joins us from des moines as well. tell me about these questions that voters have for ron desantis? >> reporter: i'm at the vivek ramaswamy headquarters, we'll talk about his campaign in a moment. here's the problem for florida governor ron desantis, because he staked so much on iowa, he's gotten the endorsement of the iowa governor, the endorsement of bob vander plaats, he has moved his campaign staff. because of all of that, if he does not have a strong showing in iowa, if he doesn't come in at least second and a strong second at that, that is going to make the argument for moving forward extremely difficult for his campaign. so the possibility that he might not come in second, that he could potentially come in third. some people are wondering if that could happen is a big problem for him. and take a listen to what he's saying about some of those rumors and some of those questions. >> anybody saying somehow, like, we're only doing that, that's just a flat out lie. you know, you have to be built for the long haul. we'

and politico goes on to point to this nbc news "des moines register" poll 43% of nikki haley supporterser trump. so if trump becomes the eventual nominee, how does he unite the party moving forward to the general election? >> well, i hope he can use more inclusive language. i hope he can look at people that did vote for somebody else in the primaries and try to bring them into the fold. i think he will do that. he will try to unite the republican party. locum a lot of people are wondering, how can we take donald trump down and polls show him close with joe biden if they head into this presidential campaign together. it's donald trump is the eventual nominee. but i think a lot of people are just trying to figure out, how does donald trump move forward? he has more support than i think a lot of us expected even a year ago. it is it seems the more he has indictments, the more he sent the spotlight and the more he's taken down by the swamp, the more people want to defend him. i think he has a clear path to victory. if he does win, we will have a strong showing against biden and could win. >

. >> en el ultimo sondeo de nbc news y el diario des moines register, publicado hace unas horas, trumpente vehicular del cual salio ilesa. >> y el gobernador de florida, ron desantis, llego setenta y tarde en el oeste de des moines, en iowa, donde le pidio a los electores que participen en las asambleas electorales del lunes a pesar de las bajas temperaturas y el frio. >> bueno, los lideres de la camara de representantes y el senado llegaron a un acuerdo para mantener la financiacion del gobierno hasta marzo. >> segun tres fuentes familiarizadas con el tema, el presidente mike johnson, hablara con republicanos de su bancada este domingo por la noche para discutir las negociaciones sobre el gasto. >> se espera que esta medida de a los legisladores mas tiempo para elaborar proyectos de ley a mas largo plazo. >> estsa

we're going to be getting a new nbc news des moines register poll out at 9:00 tonight that will givee is, heading into what will be these really awful conditions on monday. >> it is so cold in des moines. it looks like the clouds have dropped to the ground behind fawn. it is vaughn hillyard in des moines, iowa. we thank you, my friend, for being with us. >> thank you. >> up next, the third-party factor. how much could a candidate backed by saying, for example, no labels, shaped the 2024 landscape? we'll discuss right here, on the weekends, on an msnbc. ds, on an msnbc. (dad) this old, tired phone can't be traded in. (mom) that's a bit dramatic. (dad) i'm stuck with it forever! (mom) a better plan is verizon. (vo) for a limited time, trade in any samsung phone, in any condition for a new samsung galaxy s23+, on us. only on verizon. i know what it's like to perform through pain. if you're like me, one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help. it's the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and pre

nbc's steve kornacki gets a close look at the des moines registered poll, nbc news poll, at the big board. >> reporter: with a caucus tomorrow in iowa, today, we get the final poll. it is a good one. nbc news, with the des moines news, they've been pulling the straight for decades, an extremely accurate poll. let's get right to, it what they find, the republican race? they find what we have seen for a long time now. who donald trump, four, four ahead. 40%. the head of nikki haley, rod desantis, 16, vivek ramaswamy at eight, which the change since our last poll, taken back in december, trump down a tick, haley up, near surpassing desantis there for a second, little bit of a rise from ramaswamy. couple loops in this 40% for trump though, but this is the highest number ever in a final des moines registered poll for the iowa caucuses on the republican side. caucuse>> reporter: 40% is thet candidate has ever gone in the caucus with, the previous was 43, george w. bush, 2000. he won that. the margin, 28 points, trump over. haley also the large than a final publican poll in iowa, the previous re