strategist add ned davis research. good to talk to you.essment seen this little damage over the last several weeks. have we done significant larp to the longer-term trend? how do you think about it? >> at this point the damage has not been swift enough to say this is a major peak. whenever the market pulls back technicals look messy. where we are now. as of yesterday 15% of stocks above ten-day moving averages. percentage of stocks, 200 over day, longer term. down 45%. usually needs to get to low 30s before you say it's a bigger sign of trouble. so at this point, we'd say it's part of a good, healthy correction after a very strong start to the year. seasonally stronger quarter, fourth quarter, looked for the markets to resume uptrek. >> in the mode often happens after any kind of a pullback, wanting to see the numbers get worse before they get better to give you some kind of a signal that it's overdone to the down side or might we not need that? >> at this point, i wouldn't say washout levels. you want to see percentage of stocks, ten-year

. >> thank you for catching up with us alejandra grindal, chief international economist at ned daviso european equity markets have closed for the day. not much action during the auction. we pushed through on the ftse into positive territory over the last 30 minutes or so but we are not really convincingly higher. a little lower during the auction. the dax and the cac more from today. the ftse over the few days have been where we have seen outperformance. next we talk about a last-minute deal that seems to avoid a u.s. government shutdown increasingly seems unlikely. the blame game has certainly begun. who will ultimately take responsibility? we get the latest from washington next. this is bill burck. -- bloomberg. only the new sleep number smart beds let you both sleep at your ideal level of comfort. your sleep number setting. and now, all of our new next gen smart beds have temperature benefits. save $400 on the new sleep number c4 smart bed. now only $1,499. sleep next level. shop now only at sleep number >> looking live at the principal room coming up the richmond fed president jo

if ned davis research says stocks are signaling recession, it is still in the early stages, so we needt to see whether the year end momentum is going. haidi: the direction for stocks, so much of that hinges on the fed. annabelle: that is right, and there are so many different perspectives still building. are we going to see a further height by year end? morgan stanley just added interview with their chief u.s. economist, and the chief saying will will not see any further fed rate hikes. there are a couple of different factors, but they are looking at the increased slack coming through in the labor market and the slow down we have seen in jobs as well or in job gains, because that has been noted by the fed and the latest statements. the three month averages what morgan stanley is looking at. the labor market movement, also the deflation or disinflation starting to show up in cpi figures, so essentially morgan stanley is saying if we are to see any further hikes by the end of the year, the bar will be set extremely high. we will need to see further price pressures coming through, further

we got a study, and we got that idea from ned davis, but we looked on the bls website. you can find something called the initiation survey rate. that's when the fed sends out data to payroll, you know, for the payroll number we get every month. the initial response rate pre-pandemic was somewhere north of 65%. they send out the survey. the business responds. 65% of the businesses respond. after the pandemic took place, that's dropped into the low 30s. it's been as low as 29%. so the fed is going by very inaccurate data under initial take, and i think that happens in a household survey that comes from the census bureau, so my whole point of this is we're kind of in a microwave market in a slow cooker economy. it takes a while, but people like me come on every day. you have 50 guests talking about what the consumer's doing. when we look back, we're going to say, oh yeah. rates went up to over 5%. consumer credit was weakening, and corporate rates and mortgage rates stayed high. yeah, that's why things got hit. so i think again, courtney, the really most important point is