shery: thank you and great interview with neel kashkari.onnie: for more on what to watch and the fomc meetings today let's bring in michael gapen. another arm of barclays has downgraded the u.s. to less attractive when it comes to equities. what is the overall thinking on economic growth and the outlook for the health of the u.s. economy and barclays? >> the outlook is constructive when you consider we are getting a double dose of fiscal stimulus and the tax-cut package coming in year end and the bipartisan budget act of 2018. it will gradually bring in a lot more fiscal spending. billion ining $70 additional spending this year and up to $180 billion next year. that bodes well for the growth outlook. i would agree that the issue will be when the fed thinks about moving from three hikes to four hikes. march is due soon but later in the year you could get the message. shery: we will see financial conditions tightening as the effects of the tax cuts fade away as we go into next year. how much of a risk is there of a hard landing for the u.s. e

it's so exciting to be here with the minneapolis fed president, neel kashkari. anks for joining us here on this big weekend. it was a great weekend. my -- did your team win? neel: i'm a lifelong cleveland browns fan, so i'm crossing my fingers. but for last night i was hoping end, good game and in the the eagles pulled out the victory. i got both. betty: i felt the same way. good game. that was a big event over the weekend, but we also have the big event that shery just mentioned, the swearing in of jay powell, coming in at a time when people were saying -- look, up until now it has been goldilocks. stock markets were rising until the last couple of days. now it seems like the markets might be testing things at this point. do you think that jay powell's job is about to get harder? have all been waiting for inflation to come back up to the 2% target. on friday we saw a hint that -- wages might be rising. that's a good thing for the country and a good thing for workers. we need to see. as you know, we have the 2% inflation target and the maximum employment mandate.

as you listen to neel kashkari and mario draghi, what are your key takeaways? does it have any bearing on how likely you think the central banks will start winding down policy? >> first of all, the fed is using the wrong inflation, they are using the pc inflation, which has not been at 2% for the last seven years. i would think that they will have to recalibrate, if they really want to look at inflation. it has been too easy for too long. the fed now finds itself way behind the curve, and that is where these forecasts of four rate hikes come from. the fed will probably stay on course. the answer here is, it depends on what the fed will do. we think inflation is not a problem because what we see now in terms of inflation. we see late cycle cyclical inflation. yousef: i am looking here at again, some of the movements in the euro-dollar in the last 48 hours. where do you leave the ecb and boj with their plans and what does that mean for your strategy in the foreign space when it comes to the majors? hans: well, i'm still bearish on the dollar. we could see a count

to that end, you look at what neel kashkari said. i love what neel kashkari said.ou, me and every other man, woman, and child get far too excited about the machinations, and the fed should not lose sight of that. the markets overdue themselves, see a slight sign and go into this meltdown. have you had bond bear talk? 3%, expect break much more hyperventilation from a lot of people in the market. even if we come back down from 3% in yields, the next time we get up there, they will get very excited again. we have seen the talk every time we see a spike in 10 year yields. the 30meone believes plus year bond bull market is over, but that doesn't necessarily mean we need to go straight into a bond bear market. overall, probably yields drifting higher, but i don't believe they will go much higher this time around. go down in- we might the short-term, but next time we are back up there, it will be the bond bear market all over again. manus: a note this morning talking about commodities. back to 2004, 2006, the last eajor fed hike mode, and th lme almost doubled in that pe

an exclusive interview with neel kashkari, coming up.n interview with a's a hutchinson. what about immigration? we will explore that and more. david: markets are moving again, today, and not in a good way. here's julie hyman. julie:

michael mckee sat down with neel kashkari.e weighed in on the wording from the fomc january statement. >> we debate each word change in the statement. a lot of debate goes into those. yurther is intended to sav furthering the path we are on. julia: mike mckee joins us from annapolis with more highlights from his exclusive interview. the decoding of the word "further" here -- the tax overhaul. get a specific't number on how much they've marked up there forecast -- forecast. the fed will continue on the right path they've already announced but they aren't ready to raise the number of rates this year. heard from the philadelphia fed president who suggested he is still in favor of two rate hikes rather than the three that is the consensus forecast. the fed not changing it statement. go, more months of data to that's where we are at the moment. fed presidentlis neel kashkari isn't exactly a consensus member of the fed. is that right? michael: he certainly wasn't last year. he voted against all of the rate increases. he suggested to

shery: central banks release meeting minutes with important clues for investors while neel kashkari sharesnside insight on the fed stock proccess. >> wall street overreacts to everything. they overreact to the upside they overreact to the downside. shery: plus, the earnings drumbeat continues loud and strong. >> what is pleasing is all parts of the business are performing well. there is still a lot more work to be done, but we are pleased with where we are today. shery: it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ hello, and welcome. i'm shery ahn. this is "bloomberg best." your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis, and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. markets were closed in the united states on monday, but there was plenty of drama elsewhere as a euro group put forth a nominee for the vice presidency of the european central bank. nejra: the euro group has nominated luis de guindos for the ecb's vice presidential role. it is a move that will hand madrid a top seed at the bank for the first time since 2012. >> it is a controversial decision be

i agree with neel kashkari there.ye is also the -demand dynamic going on with the auctions of $350 billion just this week alone, but the yield curve is steepening. are you saying the fed should ignore that? >> the fed should not ignore it. the fed is focused on the yield curve. we see the yield curve steepening. that is an issue. a few weeks ago we saw the you curve flattening and were concerned about what that meant for recession. the fed is always looking for signals in markets. the fed has to be focused on the supply-demand dynamics and the yield curve, but we have some skepticism about this narrative of supply increasing. since the tax bill has been know how, the markets much supply will be coming through. that should be priced in. i think the bigger driver will be surprises on the economy, inflation, and fed policy, more so than supply outlook. >> how do you construct a portfolio in the midst of this? >> we like to take a long-term view. volatility, like today, equities get skittish when yields are rising, but ha

neel kashkari at joining -- on bloomberg. good to have you with us here today. let's talk about what we heard from the fed. watching the market reaction it seemed as if at first the market took it at face value, positive assessment of the u.s. economy, and the second order started to hit home and market started to stress at that hikes. did anything move for you, did the dial get moved by these minutes yesterday? >> [indiscernible] in terms of economic growth and , we are seeing a regime shift. this can last two or three months and during that time, we could have some concern about inflation, especially the federal reserve in terms of communication and interest hikes. arounds the regime shift higher inflation dynamics or the leadership of the central bank? >> in a way, both. we have a shift in the economy. this is a tough situation for the federal reserve. of course the name of the game is not to be high the curve for the fed. approach for especially the fed today is to be behind the curve or to tie the monetary -- aiding the economic growth. difficultared for a

on monday, we sat down with neel kashkari.sked him if rising bond yields and jitters in equity markets have raised the risk of recession. >> one of the risks i was looking for was the flattening of the yield curve. it has now steepened which is a good news sign as opposed to stocks falling. the fact that the yield curve is that takes aening a bit, little pressure off and says -- ok, if the bond market is seeing inflation expectations creeping up, that may give the fed more room to tap the brakes. >> what do you think is the biggest risk to the economy? >> it is hard to say. if oil prices take off that could be a big shock to economic growth. the dollar, i think, is going to put some inflationary pressures if it continues to trend down. at the same time, we are seeing growth around the world. europe is doing better. japan is doing better. it is a pretty positive global economic environment to be in. right now, i would say the risks are roughly balanced. hopefully, we have slightly stronger inflation and wage growth. those would

the minneapolis fed reserve president, neel kashkari speaking with our betty liu.tunities in asia. that conversation coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ heidi: a quick check on the state of play when it comes to markets across the region. wiping out overnight their games for 2018, hoping to start afresh. racine that contagion play out when it comes to hong kong market. with that trying up more than we saw in review session. hang seng all five 4.5%. the damage is considerably less. elsewhere around the region were seeing south korea, australia and in japanese equities falling the most. japan particularly in focus, the heavy retail component there. that forecast will be steepening, looking to fall into correction territory with that 10% klein now. spi down by 3%. dollar also seeing a bit of weakness against the u.s. dollar. a quick look ahead to the rest of the day straight. asia,off within here in barely sheltered from the extent of the selloff we been seeing elsewhere. indian shares seeing the biggest loss in more than a year on friday last week. news ont -- domes

we want to bring in neel kashkari we are in his backyard for his take on the jobs report. mr. minneapolis's fed president. >> thank you for having me. >> thank you for us to come to you this time. these jobs numbers, it looks like the market's taking this as a good news is bad news situation. >> right. >> and the bad news is that interest rates may be going up >> well, the most important thing that i saw in a quick review of the jobs report is wage growth. we've been waiting for wage growth everyone has been declaring we're at maximum employment. more americans have been coming in but there hasn't been much wage growth. this is one of the first signs of seeing wage growth picking up that's good for the public as a whole. i think it's good for the economy overall. i do think if wage growth continues that could have an effect on the path of interest rates. >> take us inside the room you voted against every interest rate hike. >> i did because we've been under shooting our inflation rate target for basically ten years and there's been very muted wage growth. we're trying to assess

neel kashkari made the comments in an exclusive interview with bloomberg. >> if the bond market and stockket are pricing in lower long-term yield, that also could be leading to higher valuations. i do not see a financial crisis on the horizon. we are paying very close attention to it. as u.s. stock plunged yesterday, president trump was hailing the economy, praising his recently passed tax overhaul and telling workers in ohio that america is once again open for business. pres. trump: when i signed the tax cuts six weeks ago, it set off a tidal wave of good news that continues to grow every single day. was dry,e ink companies were announcing thousands and thousands of new jobs and enormous investments to their workers. so-called robo advisors struggled to deal with the market route. the glitches are a setback. it is comfortable making investment decisions without speaking to human beings. david davis said his government is "very clear" on what it wants out of talks with the european union. he met michel barnier in london for the first time this year. mayier told the government have to make

an important interview today, the dissenter from any apple is, neel kashkari -- minneapolis, neel kashkariomberg surveillance." let's get the bloomberg business flash. invest $2.4 billion in technology as part of a three-year strategic plan. the mortgage lender will buy back up to $1.4 billion of its own share. lloyd reported first-quarter profit missing estimates. -- recorded record profit thanks cash this commodity trader and miner said it will pay dividends this year well above the minimum it pledged. glencore also cut net debt by a third. for the first time, apple may buy supplies of cobalt directly from miners. cobalt is the key ingredient in that are refused to power smartphones and other devices. there is concerned there could be a shortage because of the boom in electric vehicles. apple is seeking cobalt contracts of five years or longer. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: thanks so much. gun controlt to with kevin's a really front and center in america. no question about that as we have seen the horror in florida. i want to touch upon -- a ponzi zeitgeist -- i want to tou

an exclusive interview with betty, neel kashkari told her while stock valuations seem on the high endsn't think it's a bubble. talked about what the fed is learning from japan. america, people were very quick to criticize the bank of japan, saying they should have aggressive,re trying to deal with low inflation than they were. littlebe in a inflationary environment for a long period of time. we've seen the struggles of japan. learnedhe things i've from japan is how powerful low inflation expectations are, when become embedded in a society. central bank can raise inflation or 100%. we don't know how to raise aflation expectations by half percent. that's the trick. i think japan has learned that. they've taken extraordinary measures to try to boost even nation in their -- inflation, but they want to maintain credibility. we need to continue being humble, look at the japan experience. certainly shouldn't declare victory too early on inflation. we've seen from japan how is if one does that. >> he has said very specifically, we are going to our foot to the pedal and continue that stimulus.

vonnie: henri pricing, michael mckee was asking neel kashkari sloppiness, you look at the securitiesome space, is there anything? variable loans? any aspect of the market you are worried about? >> in the credit market, the spread market, we have not seen the same type of activity that has been associated with credit bubbles. we have seen leverage rising a little bit but earnings also continuing to move higher. the activity at the corporate sector, particularly on the back of the tax plan will be important. could you see repatriation of overseas held cash and use that to pay down debt? in which case you could prolong the credit cycle even longer. vonnie: partly seen it already -- are we seeing it already? >> basically, generally speaking, they could use it for capital expenditures, they could use it for share buybacks, or to pay back debt. depending on the share of how much used in aggregate, that will matter. if a lot of it is used to pay down some debt, and particularly for highly leveraged sectors and companies, prolong the cycle longer and you wind up with an environment or you ge

ramy: coming up, more conversations with robert kaplan and neel kashkari.ared their economic outlook. plus, more exclusive insight from the biggest players in global finance putting volatilities come back into context. >> i think the markets are still vulnerable to a slowdown in growth momentum. ramy: this is bloomberg. ♪ willam confident that we achieve our objective to ensure price stability. all of the ingredients and requirements are on the table. we have a robust growth. broad-based growth in the euro area. we have a rising investment activity. we have an increase in unemployment. we have very generous financing. inflation will come in the medium-term and that is our goal. and that is why i think that, in this year, we can accept the programpurchase of our balance and start coming back to a more normal monetary policy. ramy: that was ecb executive board member speaking exclusively with matt miller about the progress of the bank towards inflation targets and its timeline for concluding qe. let us get back to the u.s. and fed policy. neelnday, we sat dow

correspondent michael mckee sat down for and exclusive interview with the minneapolis ,ed president, neel kashkariays he does not think that one month of data should change the policy path. to overreact to one job report that showed the wage increases of 2.9% or the latest numbers. we don't want to dismiss the data but i also don't want to overreact to one month's blip in the data. we have to look over what is happening and see if inflation is actually -- our target. i hope it is. for almost 10 years that that has been undershooting orientation target. we have tools to keep inflation from going to hide. and if it goes too low. i have always been saying, allow inflation to come to us. jumpy wall street these days, so if you saw inflation breakout are you concerned you would see wall street overreact to the fed moving more quickly? >> wall street overreacts to everything. they overreact to the upside, the downside, we can make policy based on market blip up and down. congress has said that her dual -- and the dual mandate is a stable prices and a maximum employment and we try to achieve those on ave

patrick harker speaks before the opening bell minneapolis fed president neel kashkari speaks later tonightdelphi and wendy's report before the open cheesecake factory, pandora and roku out after the close >>> amazon is launching a bunch of healthcare products landon dowdy has more. >> the move could challenge cvs, walgreens and spark a price war amazon does not own the products which are owned by perigot but it puts the company in position to squeeze other retailers margi margins. amazon launched the basic care line last august with 60 items a big money maker for pharmacies, people who walk in for medicine and buy cosmetics and other goods on the wear out. amazon is cutting into that and this could give shoppers another reason to skip the store amazon says basic care does not give it a pathway to prescription drugs, but cnbc previously reported on the company's interest on getting into that space. let's look at the numbers. cvs slightly off walgreens about flat >> courtney, are you a big generics person? >> i am, especially for medications like that. if you look at the chemical makeup, the

. >> i want to get your views on whether you agree with fed chairman neel kashkari that increasing legal immigration would help our economy but i'll get to that another time. >> mr. bud? >> thank you, mr. chairman, chairman powell, congratulations. i know you've heard it many times but we're glad to have you here. would it be fair to say the current situation is willing to review and question decisions made by the fsb, the financial stability board, in the past. would you be willing to review and question those? >> sure. i mean, i think we always -- if fsb doesn't make decisions about u.s. regulation, they make recommendations and if we were to enact something in a regulation we would put that out for comment and anything like that could be reconsidered in princip principle. i don't think any anything that comes to mind but maybe you can help me. >> so as much as their opinions have influenced policy, there's one in particular i'm thinking about. in 2013, the fsb instructed the international agency of insurance supervisors required them to have insurance groups. there seems to be concern

the market meltdown, they are not listening to neel kashkari, are they?want to sort of put things in perspective here. the last -- i am the last to say that this is not important. it is very important. i would caution against everyone just.ys it is a small dip on the other hand, we have to recognize that the underlying reasons for why the market has started to price in higher central bank expectations, have not gone away. i think what we are currently , it is a correction that might deepen a bit. we have to see where we go from there. francine: why has it been so violent? >> the move up, particularly in the u.s., has been quite violent. it has not been over the same very short amount of time. if you look at the amount of increase is that we have seen, it has been quite something. i think the correction has been violent because the way up has been violent. francine: if you look at the markets, does it mean that valuations go down and you will find better deals? >> as you know in the private markets, it is different in the reaction to volatility. is a very

patrick harker speaks before the opening bell minneapolis fed president neel kashkari speaks later tonighthi and wendy's report before the open cheesecake factory, pandora and roku out after the close futures indicated down about 53 or so today. i think the nasdaq was okay yesterday. >> it was down, but just barely. >> up today. diverging from the s&p and the -- >> walmart was the big issue weighing on the dow. it was responsible for 73 points in the pullback. >>> let's talk about the trump administration considering a federal gas tax hike that is getting big reaction joining us now is former transportation secretary ray lahood thank you for being here >> thank you >> gas tax has been something we've been talking about for a long time. it hasn't changed on the federal level since when >> 1993, during the clinton administration it is the only thing in 25 years that hasn't gone up. it should. it we want to get a big pot of money, if we want to fix roads, if we want to fix our 60,000 bridges, we need a big pot of money. public/private partnerships are fine, but we need to have the ability to

minneapolis fed president neel kashkari joins bloomberg at 6:00 p.m. u.k. time., global equities sell off deepends. andtarted with u.s. bonds has now spread across international markets. we talk about the selloff we see in international equities, and we keep an eye on the markets. u.s. future should be weaker at the start of the trading day. we'll discuss that further when we come back. this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: good morning from bloomberg's new european headquarters in london. i'm manus cranny. anna: i am anna edwards. manus: asian shares fall, extending the biggest selloff for global stocks in two years. acrossity bites back the assets. anna: divisions of her brexit the been within theresa may's party. in germany merkel allows more time for coalition talks. raising chipmaker is the offer for qualcomm, making it the largest tech deal ever. the market might be looking at the biggest tech deal ever coming down the pipe, but you are looking at a tougher opening for these european equity markets. london, paris and frankfurt will follow suit. the bond market is the

i was just in minnesota talking with neel kashkari, the federal reserve bank president. while this was before those comments, he said something interesting. he said we have great disagreements on the board about inflation and how fast we will have to add,d -- but we are united that there will be no political interference and we will react to inflation. david: this is not the first time we have heard this. it sounds reminiscent of the reagan years. it is almost a matter of theology or orthodoxy. if you are pro-business and progrowth, you believe the supply-side will take care of itself. michael: and it has not historically. lisa's point, there is not an economist at the head of the fed. let's talk about inflation elsewhere. the final read for inflation for europe as well as japan. japan could not breach 1% and euro area core inflation stayed at 1%. is this an fx story? michael: not right now. maybe to it a little bit -- a little bit of an extent in japan. huge exportting numbers, half a percent. that powered the german economy to grow at its fastest rate in seven years. t

certainly the fed, as we heard from neel kashkari, does not want to look to the markets to dictate monetarysarily apply to the white house or treasury department, where they do watch the markets and how fed policy might be affecting investor sentiment. you might be apple to draw that line perhaps, from the steve -- you might be able to draw that line perhaps, from the steve mnuchin comments. we will be live in d.c. next with more context. this is bloomberg. ♪ 8:3 in singapore. happy0 friday. we finally got there. half an hour away from trading in the lion city. betty: you are watching "daybreak asia." out.ve more news coming yvonne: we saw the earnings come out. the biggest headline is a bit of a reshuffle in the upper level here. the ceo -- he has named a new ceo. saying he stepped down as president. which i guess is not a big surprise. we said earlier this week he was going to be stepping down as part of a broader three shuffle. the formerll be for cfo, the first time a woman will be leading one of russia's largest commodity companies. there were a lot of questions leading up to this news

and it is a position also held by the minneapolis fed presidents neel kashkari. >> there is a collisionourse between what was he on the fiscal side of things as well. address the spending plans from the white house. and it is increasingly likely that we will speak about it. what would that overshooting inflation. queen of the market reaction was pretty positive to all the headlines today. the s&p up over 1%, the dow adding on another. nasdaq also higher by over 1%. volume a little bit lower than what was expected. stockith some of the big stories today. >> we had some big stories. ge was one of them in at the ceo came out and said that there might be liabilities for some of the subprime that the company used to be involved in. we also had some movers, some earnings related stories. the demonstration of tech and financials were really the big movers here. moving higher on trump selected support a very strong cash. they're willing to engage in negotiations. after imagining milk sales are down and having to cut costs. announcing three new out , and let's take a look at the market snapshots

coming up later today on bloomberg markets, neel kashkari , minneapolis federal reserve president.st for those buying houses are going up and mortgage applications are done or a second consecutive week. the mba mortgage applications index fell 6.6% last week and the average rate for 30 yaya toura© loans increased to the highest since 2013. joining us is the laura richardson. you know these numbers. tell us what is going on. at 10:00.ome sales what is happening in the housing market more broadly? nela: a continuation of the last three years which is really slim inventory. we have not built enough housing to keep up with current demand, population changes, and with the growing jobs market. when we see at redfin working with buyers, people are ready to pounce and nothing to pounce on because inventory is so short. it because mortgage rates are going up, is that biting into the demand? nela: when did you buy your house, what was the market rate? i got mine for 3.25%. if i went to four point 1%, that would be a thousand dollar increase. nela: what will make you leave mortgage? you may n

then at 2:00, neel kashkari participates in a roundtable discussion on wages and monetary policy in washingtonet's get an update on business headlines. the european union has come out with its own draft of a brexit agreement. the reason they british prime minister could accept it. she says it would threaten the constitutional integrity of the u.k. and undermine the country's common market. referring to the parts dealing with the irish border. jared kushner has lost his top security clearance. that means he can no longer attend some meetings of the national security council or see war related intelligence material. it is part of a wider crackdown two axes sensitive materials. paul manafort appears in court today. it will be his first court appearance since rick gates pleaded guilty to reduced charges last week in the rush investigation. manafort raises a variety of charges ranging from tax evasion to working as an unregistered foreign agent. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. powell showe

neel kashkari had dovish words on the fed.n the moving locomotive. we have jeff saut on where we go from here. in your opinion, jeff, the crazy, wild roller coaster after these fomc meetings and everyone tries to interpret them i always find amazing because for the most part, if it starts to go up everyone buys, if it starts to go down everyone sells. what is your assessment? >> i think you hit it right on the head, the song from madonna, take a breath. when you make a stand, take a call, you're going to be wrong. my daddy taught me when you're wrong, you say you're wrong quickly. but when you're right never let them predict it. we predicted the climb coming. the climax low on december 26th, throw back rally destined to fail. making undercut low we told people to buy at february 6th lows. we think the lows are in. last friday we told the investors 2750 level would be very tough for the market to travel through on the initial move and that we thought you would get a pullback and that the 2680, to 2700 level would contain it. so

. >> neel kashkari talked about the data, people talked about friday and monday, friday was a data market.9%. the data suites of 2007 and 2008 when raises last wages rose, should i really get that disturbed by 2.9% off on wages? >> when markets go for a long time without a correction, and they eventually do the correction, whatever news around the correction, people will attribute to that. it is normally much more complicated. , we know laborue markets are tightening in the united states. wehink we will overshoot, will overshoot for employment. .- full employment the issue is the transition from wages to prices is more muted than we are used to. usually, wages went up and prices were -- it was passed onto pricing, pricing power by businesses is more muted than it was five or 10 years ago. i will be watching to see, does wage increases lower margins and how much gets past off in prices? the jury is out on that. , we will listen to axel weber after you and you use gradual, patients, deliberate, we have williams and deadly, the language is clear. last week, you almost intimated you could be

. >> well i want, i do want to get your views on whether you agree with fed chairman neel kashkari that increasing legal immigration would grow our economy but i probably have to get that answer another time. >> time of the gentleman has expired. the chair recognizes the gentleman from north carolina, mr. budd. >> thank you, mr. chairman. chairman powell, again congratulations. you heard it many times today. we're glad to have you here. would it be fair to say that the current administration is willing to review and perhaps even question decisions made by the fsb, the financial stability board in the past? want to have some of your thoughts on that, about looking back at decisions they made. would you be willing to review and question those? >> sure. i mean we, i think we always, the fsb doesn't make decisions about u.s. regulation. they make recommendations and, if we were to enact something in a law, in a regulation, sorry, we would put that out for comment and, you know, anything like that could be, could be reconsidered in principle, sure. >> as much -- >> i don't think of anything

neel kashkari of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis, will he dissent at that meeting? this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom, talk about possible trade wars and research notes. jpmorgan's john normand looks at what a trade war could do. he says once a decade, the trade conflict is labeled trade war because it involves a high-profile sector. him now. back to john, what is a trade war in 2018? john: first of all, the u.s. choosing to put tariffs on a particular item which is significant to a major trading partner. francine: solar panels are washing machines? john: unlikely to be that. it would have to be something that constitutes a decent share of u.s. trade imports and it would have to be matched by retaliation from china. there's so many missing pieces in that equation. i don't think it is a major issue for equities right now. francine: what does a trade conflict do for the markets? is it automatically a selloff? john: if you have an announcement of trade sections -- sanctions against china, you will see risky markets selloff. i don't thi

officials are speaking today philadelphia fed president patrick harker, minneapolis fed president neel kashkari and esther george. we heard from robert kaplan this morning speaking in frankfurt he said the central bank should continue removing accommodation but added that the fed should be highly vigilant about market volatility and whether it has effect on the real economy as for earnings, cvs health, twitter, viacom, kellogg and yum brands reporting before the open bell. aig, expedia, news corp. are out after the close. dow looks like it would open down about 147 points off. the nasdaq off by 23 points. s&p 500 if it opened now would be off by 15.5 points. >>> senate leaders reached a long-term spending deal with hours to go before another government shutdown. kayla tausche has the latest this morning >> reporter: the senate and house are expected to vote today on the budget deal that was reached last night it has bipartisan support. it lifts 2011 spending levels by 3$300 billion it raises the debt limit until march 2019 and includes add-on funding for disaster relief, community health center

liz: that was neel kashkari, minneapolis fed president.th blip of data, i thought it was interesting he said, stop overreacting! ashley: we're on positive side. we like to turn it over to our good friend neil cavuto. take it away, neil. >> okay. ashley: too late, charles. >> no problem, thank you very much, ashley. welcome to cavuto "coast to coast." i'm charles payne in for neil cavuto charles: president trump meeting with state and local officials to talk about school safety. this after emotional day of students expressing

. >> i want to get your views on whether you agree with fed chairman neel kashkari that increasing legal immigration would help our economy but i'll get to that another time. >> mr. bud? >> thank you, mr. chairman, chairman powell, congratulations. i know you've heard it many times but we're glad to have you here. would it be fair to say the current administration is willing to review and question decisions made by the fsb, the financial stability board, in the past? would you be willing to review and question those? >> sure. i mean, i think we always -- if fsb doesn't make decisions about u.s. regulation, they make recommendations and if we were to enact something in a regulation we would put that out for comment and anything like that could be reconsidered in principle. i don't think any anything that comes to mind but maybe you can help me. >> so as much as their opinions have influenced policy, there's one in particular i'm thinking about. in 2013, the fsb instructed the international association of insurance supervisors required them to have insurance groups. there seems to be conce