neel kashkari is something of a dove and yet here we are.is saying we could be on track to do what paul volcker did in the early 1980's. even though inflation expectations come unanchored -- that is the key for central-bank policy policymakers around the world. he is saying you have to go hard now. he is not just talking about peak inflation. he is saying the fed have a lot of work to do. manus: and miles to go before they sleep so to speak. enda curran on the data. this year's meeting in germany brings together 19 laureates of nobel prize for economic sciences. one of those attending as a london school of economic professor who joins me now. he won the prize in 2010 for his paper on friction in markets. thank you so much for joining us. an awful lot to get through. i am drawn to your specialty on the labor markets and frictions therein. when you look at britain on strike, europe on strike, wages, demands are rising, double-digit inflation is here, inflation may hit 8% in the united kingdom. when you see the wage demands being faced, are we

tom: that was neel kashkari speaking to bloomberg.till with us is derek halpenny, head of european global markets research at mufg. this takes us back, the comments from neel kashkari. he flight the previous statement about the ability of central banks to move on the record. neel kashkari has become uber hawkish and we are celebrating the selloff we thousand these markets. which central bank's most at risk of not being able to deliver on hikes? derek: i would have to say europe purely because we are in such an extreme period of uncertainty in terms of what happens to the natural gas prices. we could get to a point where there is such a huge disruption in real economic activity during the winter. could -- during the winter. and bigger disruptions generally that could result in the ecb becoming more slower. that is definitely the risk. i mentioned moments ago how the central banks are the most priced for now until the end of the year. tom: what is the euro-dollar target for you in the quarters ahead? derek: we have been arguing about a

neel kashkari says the fomc is committed to slowing inflation to its 2% full. let's take a look at the futures. let's go back often to what we thousand asia. we have the risk of recession has cooled expectations of how sharply the fed has to hike rates. this is after july rebounds of stocks and bonds. happy august, everyone. european futures a bit on the downside, but not huge. it is also the s&p earnings season. investors on the geopolitics front monitoring house speaker nancy pelosi's trip to asia. then we look at some of the currencies. the british pound at 1.29. the euro at 1.02. this week, it is all about the bank of england. they don't -- they joined several institutions that have been raising interest rates. and looking at commodities, iron ore getting a touch with brent unchanged. let's also look at across assets check. 10 year yields. it is interesting to hear kashkari say the fed will do whatever they can and whatever it takes to keep inflation under control. we are also seeing pressure from the s&p futures, down 0.8%. in europe, a lot of people are o

fed chair powell speech indicates investors have finally -- -- according to neel kashkari. speaking to bloomberg, kashkari added that it shows how firm the fed's commitment to getting inflation back down to 2% is. enda curran is with us. there is this line from kashkari that he is happy to see the market essentially taking jay powell seriously. that is my read. enda: he's either saying he's unhappy to see the markets rally in july, happy to see the markets come off in response to chairman powell's speech, he warned the fed will not repeat the mistake of the 1970's when they began to ease up too soon, and he said he did not want to see them raising rates until inflation is licked. it is striking language for any fed official and it drives in how determined they are to keep ramming home this message to markets that they are not going to stop raising interest rates until inflation is well back down to within their comfort zone, closer to their mandate. we are starting to see global markets to as a realization -- too as a realization sinks in. dani: he stopped short of saying ma

visit indeed.com/hire >>> we turn to the president of the minneapolis federal reserve, neel kashkari.ing, neel. >> good morning, john. thank you for having me. >> thank you for being here. okay, everybody wants to know, inflation still hot, what does it look like to you? >> it is very concerning. you know, we keep getting inflation readings, new data that comes in and as recently as this past week, and we keep getting surprised. it is higher than we expect. and it is not just a few categories. it is spreading out more broadly across the economy. and that's why the federal reserve is acting with such urgency to get it under control and bring it back down. >> wages within that, what does the wage picture look like in two different ways? we measure it on its own and relative to inflation. >> for most americans, the wages are going up. but they're not going up as fast as inflation. real wages, real incomes are going down. that's why families are finding it increasingly hard to make ends meet when they go to the grocery store, when they buy necessities, they're not able to buy as much beca

you heard from neel kashkari and evans overnight, trying to play the optimism in the markets. we are not there yet when it comes to the fed pivot, but it is may a change of regime around the fed now. our guest was saying that post -gfc the fed would have leaned towards being more aggressive. this is a different fed, especially when you have the likes of neel kashkari who want to be one of the most hawkish in the fomc. rishaad: and you look at the bond market, we had spreads between the 2's and 10's inverted by 58 basis points. that has changed right now. the deceleration in the growth rate of consumer prices is not by that much, one has to say but, it establishes a half-point rate increase for the september federal reserve meeting. we were all looking forward to another three-quarter--point hike. but we are not out of the woods yet, are we. interest rate increases take time to filter through. it takes time to get information down, doesn't it, ultimately? david: yeah. it is 18 months, 9-18 months on the lag in monetary policy. the last time we had inflation at these levels was

i'm talking about neel kashkari, he is spending so much time defending his own words.esterday he made some comments but he did -- headline hear is what people looked at the quiet part that neel kashkari was sort of happy the markets were down on this news, on the powell's speech, however, here's the thing, neel kashkari was upset because some people actually went out there and said he was delighted about the market being down. so he felt compelled to set the record straight. he wanted people to know was actually happy the market took a dive. now people were understanding the seriousness of the fed. we get it. why did he go through so much. delighted and happy what is difference. one is adjective, feeling, showing great pleasure, the other is adjective feeling or showing pleasure or contentment. when people say to me is the fed going through with all of this? i'm not so sure. meanwhile as the fed is splitting hairs the market is making no bones about it at least experts on wall street are making no bones about it. they want the market to go much lower. look at this folk

shery: minneapolis fed president neel kashkari speaking in wharton, minnesota at the alumni club.weakening from the u.s. to europe and asia, reinforcing concerned that prices and the war in ukraine tip the world into recession. chief asia economic correspondent enda curran joins us now. these concerns are leading people to think that perhaps the fed will need to slow down. we have the chart on the bloomberg showing services slowing, not just manufacturing at we have the two-year yield taking a hit because of that. how concerning our the latest global numbers? enda: that doesn't seem to be a synchronized slowdown in manufacturing sectors around the world. in the u.s., weakness in new orders and employment. that is notable given how strong the u.s. jobs market has been. in europe, it is about high energy costs that the stock traders on futures are dealing with, that is weighing in on their activities. australia, the sector is turning for the first time in seven months, the big actor up being the slowdown in china, the economy. so the impact and the weight of rising inflation and int

neel kashkari said something i think a lot of people are thinking. if we look ahead to the meeting coming up on september 21, the question is give me your 75. we know that this will come down a little bit but not enough for the fed. with that very strong jobs report, does that mean that the fed is doing more aggressive rate hikes? the speed at which it comes down will increase a lot. this is going to put a lot more squeeze on the economy. markets will feel it. all kinds of people might feel it. they are ready to go and he is certainly onboard. >> this will be starting next week. how this all plays out is the big question for the markets. we are considering a 75 basis point hike in the next meeting. >>, think anyone of them in jackson hole said they would not go forward. they'll put it on the table. they are all saying they have to be forceful. they can let inflation get entrenched. the meetings are held, the sessions are held. one of the ecb board members, we have to be forceful. i was really impressed and alley rand who i spoke to is the governor of

it is not surprising to me neel kashkari is saying he is happy.t also shows they have been trying to get a strong message across. this is not an accident. this is what they want the markets to hear clearly. haidi: is he liking the markets are starting to reel from a reality check? he will might like we will see tightening. some looking to offload treasury yields. look at the chart. typically when the tightening happens and the fed pulls liquidity, stocks will struggle. this is part of the broader plan to reduce the chilean dollar portfolio. -- the trillion dollar portfolio. the t-bills will be used as coupons below the monthly level. september will be the first month the coupons will fall below the new monetary authority cap. kathleen: a lot going on. let's bring in senior vice president at wealth enhancement group. great to have you with us after the hawkish speech. i know you have a conservative view as to how you look at your portfolio and how to position with the uncertainty. did jay powell's speech change your outlook and strategy at all? >>

we continue our conversation with minneapolis federal reserve's neel kashkari. neel, let's pick up where you left off on the question of supply. when i was talking with two senators earlier, there was this debate about whether taxation on companies that don't pay a minimum level of taxation will have their supply hurt. so, in other words, you tax them, supply goes down, that hurts within inflation. what is your assessment of that? >> you know, over the long-term, that's probably true on the margin. people say that about raising interest rates. why raise interest rates, that will make it more expensive for firms to invest and that is going to not help with the supply side. that's true over the long-term. but over the short-term, the demand side effects swamp the slide sigh ede effects. when i look at your bill, my guess is over the next couple of years it is not going to have much of an impact on inflation, it is not going to affect how i analyze inflation, i think long-term it may have some effect. near term, we have a mismatch between demand and supply. and it i

and investors look to this week's fed minutes, including esther george and neel kashkari. what insights they will include into whether the fomc goes big on rate hikes next month or not. the rates on futures are holding soft, getting 0.3%. this may be due to what we are compared to seeing on the u.s., but also counterintuitive to what some of the stocks in asia did after that surprise interest rates cut from the pboc. it is clear that the investors are trying to maneuver that disappointing data print out of china, that surprise interest-rate cuts means that there were some economic troubles and that filters the rent has an impact on global growth worldwide. jackson hole brought the next catalyst for some of the stocks in the u.s., but also treasuries. if you look at the ftse, getting some 0.3%. -- gaining some 0.3%. iron ore under pressure. gas pretty much under changed -- unchanged. we look at the rhine river and the global water level of that. the problem is also economically, if you have a barge or some of the ships that have to go through the rhine river, you need to pu

neel kashkari after jackson hole. volatility and trade downs. best buy stocks still pop over 5%. we get the first read on labor market with job openings moments away. my cohost in london. welcome to bloomberg markets. this is a pivot on the headline from reuters that taiwan fired warning shots at a chinese drone. i'm not saying there is a correlation between the s&p. it is a fragile rally. anna: the context important. this action doesn't happen often. some more negative on the risk asset side. it didn't seem as if the rally had much confidence behind it anyway. this is the end of august. we have the fed ringing in our ears. alix: job openings and confidence. consumer confidence numbers as well. michael: the conference board numbers are up. gasoline prices have probably fallen. consumer confidence rises. the present situation, 145.4 and expectations rise. all across the board, good numbers. people's appraisals of the job market goes into this index. they expect an increase in jobs and incomes over the next six months. job openings, very interesting, go up to 11 million. this is a

jonathan: neel kashkari, the minneapolis fed president, over the weekend.very dedicated fed watcher is basically saying the same thing, that the fed has to push back against some of this price action. teachers right now softer, -0.2% on the s&p after a really strong rally after the last month on both the s&p and the nasdaq area the nasdaq just a little lighter , down 0.2 percent. yields up about a basis point, 2.6559%. euro-dollar middle of the pack in g10, positive 0.3%, 1.0257. tom: there's finally a real dollar weakness. you don't see it in some of the em currencies, but nevertheless an interesting tape and becoming more interesting off the data we will see on august 1. it is august 1 in singapore. it is the evening, of course. annmarie hordern knows this, or bloomberg washington correspondent become us -- washington correspondent, because they speak of the house and the united states navy, the seventh fleet in the indo pacific led by the uss reagan, the tippecanoe and oil kind of ship that refueled etsy. how is the -- refueled at sea. how is the united

neel kashkari says the central bank is committed to slowing inflation to 2%. he told cbs the fed will do what is necessary to bring down demand. he says faster inflation is being driven by supply chain disruption and other factors. boeing is starting the week with the week with a double dose of good news. the aerospace company has averted a strike by machinist that would have crippled its factories. deliveries have been largely halted since 2020. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> right now markets believe the end for what the fed wants, lower inflation, they do not quite understand what the means will be, tighter financial conditions. and our forecast we think the fed declares victory earlier. paul volcker did too. jonathan: that was vincent reinhart. he is not alone. this from bill dudley earlier this morning. he said this wishful thinking is unfounded and counterproductive. live from new york city with tom

in the meantime, a russian rocket hit the port hours, but the ship did leave. >>> and neel kashkari says central bank is committed to goal of 2% inflation he says we have a long way to go on that. some ca some key headlines for now that does it for us on a busy monday flip a coin for stock futures. "squawk" and the ganarg e picking up coverage. have a great day take care. 80% of couples sleep too hot or too cold. because quality sleep is vital, the sleep number 360 smart bed is temperature balancing, so you both stay cool. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. save $500 on the sleep number 360 c4 smart bed queen now only $1,299. lowest price ever. with xfinity internet, you get advanced security that helps protect you at home and on the go. you feel so safe, it's as if... i don't know... evander holyfield has your back. i wouldn't click on that. hey, thanks! we got a muffin for ed! all right! you don't need those calories. can we at least split it? nope. advanced security that helps protect your devices in and out of the home. i mean, can i have a bite? only fro

today, what we heard from neel kashkari into the fed president, 8:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m., two they come out and repeat they would like to see more of a tightening in financial conditions? i also want to hear what they have to say about the balance sheet. it is starting to take effect and accelerating this week. at what point do we see that trickle into the market? we will be very focused in the housing market. the pricing index for the month of june, house prices from s&p corelogic. at 9:00, consumer confidence and joel at 10:00 a.m.. how much of the job openings continue to decline? we're looking at the peripheral evidence of a softening in the labor market. the earnings continue before the market, hp and chewy at the bell. let's give you a sense of the insanity. shares up 131%. talk about craziness. how much do they actually show fundamental performance, reducing some of the things that have been lowering the number? jonathan: overwhelming. it's easy to comment on the experience when you go into a store. lisa: i don't think you are wrong. a lot of people

neel kashkari is trying to clean up his comments to make us more worried.hat do you think the fed is worried about now with the economic data that is coming out? >> the fed is seeing that the economy is holding up quite well. yes there is some weakness in manufacturing but we are seeing but positive increases in durable goods orders, personal income was better than expected, retail sales remain relatively strong so the consumer is still spending. yes as ed pointed out earlier they're spending more on services than goods but they are spending and so the fed is saying that the demand is still higher than they would like it to be and they want people to be aware that they don't want to do, i think this is what some of these fed presidents are trying to warn, what they did in the '70s, with this constant raising and cutting rates which just led to great volatility and it never really addressed inflation. charles: right. >> i think they want to see inflation stay low for a period of time before they would even consider cutting rates again. charles: so i'm asking

neel kashkari, open line to fed chair powell, they are 100% committed to 2%, 100%.what is so magical about 2%. he said no, it is 2%. if it is 2% and he said even if inflation down a little bit from -- liz: barry. >> we have a lot more to go. now i'm paraphrasing a little bit. that means there's a disconnect between the market as you see the dow is green and what the fed's going to do if they're going to do it, of at least two, maybe three 75 basis-point increases, that will slow the economy presumably, impact corporate earnings and lead to more market turbulence. there is a disconnect now. now maybe the stock traders are right. maybe they're wrong. i would ask your guests where they think this is going. is the fed, i mean, traders obviously believe, the market, jerome powell doesn't have the fortitude to go through with this. almost used the kind of -- liz: talking a good game though. >> he is and he isn't. he is all over the place. kashkari is talking a good game. liz: charles evans as well. >> yes. liz: thank you, very much, charlie gasparino. closing bell, we're

the minneapolis fed chief neel kashkari and his chicago counterpart says the central bank's path towardsigher interest rate won't change until 2023. kashkari wants the rate at 4.7% and his chicago counterpart agreed, saying inflation is unacceptably high. >> the idea we are going to start cutting rates early next year when inflation is well in excess of our target is not realistic. a much more likely scenario is that we will raise rates to some point and sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back to 2%, or i would think about easing back on interest rates. vonnie: donald trump refused to answer questions from the new york attorney general into an investigation into potentially fraudulent asset valuations. the former president repeatedly invoked his fifth amendment rights in a deposition probing whether the trump organization manipulated asset valuations for favorable terms in bank loans and insurance. it comes just days after federal agents searched trump's home. this reluctant president will visit thailand but will not seek political asylum, according to the

kathleen: neel kashkari is admitting, the fed has a problem and they have to solve it.g that is very clear. i don't see how they can keep doubting that they will keep going for now, for sure. then of course, watching the data, they have said this so many times, where there are four reports we have to which clearly in august and september. two job reports. we had one, it was very strong. and the cpi report, which pulled back from the highs, but that is good. what will the next reports hold? i think what they forget is that traders got used to having everything spoonfed to them. in the old days there were fed watchers, they got paid to get it right and to make the analysis. that is what people need to learn to do, think, read, listen and make up your mind. that is what traders, investors and strategists are paid to do. haidi: our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays there. coming up, we will speak to the philippines central bank governors at 9:30 a.m. if you are watching in hong kong, 10:30 a.m. in sydney. let's look at the markets now. annabelle: looking at t

do they lose credibility if they're wrong, marely daleys, neil neel kashkari and that crew?'re not speaking their own philosophy which is strange to see. it is very apparent the message is being delivered on high the door has to stay open to any possibility and you can't wax too dovish and give the markets too much hope and turn around to get the minutes which are completely contradictory what they have been saying. charles, i've never seen communication so conflicted. i'm a former fed insider. >> ironically feels like the market is seeing right through it. financials conditions got looser, not tighter. markets are up, not down. treasury yields are down, not up. there is something i read a couple days ago. you were the first person i thought it, i thought it was fantastic, it was from the st. louis fed. they talked about how we talk about how tight the jobs market, right? you take number of people not actively looking for work and vacancies right now a 9 to one ratio. people are going from work to work, employment to employment. those people right there are looking for jobs.

neel kashkari says the central bank is committed to hitting its 2% inflation goal while doing everything i can to avoid recession. and we speak to the ceo of pacific basin shipping as they post its best ever profit. we ask what the results toss about overall demand for commodities. rishaad: we have a bit of a mixed back at the moment. u.s. equity features adding pressure to markets and currently japan is positive and the yen's appreciation continuing once more. of course we have challenges out there for china. pmi reads. what are you looking at? yvonne: as you mentioned, it seems like all this gloom around china is weighing on overall what we were seeing when it comes to asia. we are trying to see a bounceback in global stocks, the best in two years. we are kicking off the trending month and week here. it is looking mixed. a lot of downside. hsi down about .7%. we have reentered into correction territory. h-shares in hong kong as well. csi 300 snapping two months of gains. the superlatives are not good. the pmi numbers we got over the weekend seem to suggest that things are really slowin

neel kashkari is one of the most interesting fed presidents and we look at what he has to say and the inflation is still high. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. >> the idea that we are going to start cutting rates early next year when inflation is likely going to be well in excess of our targets, i think it is not realistic. >>

neel kashkari says the softer reading does not change the path. >> the idea that we will cut rates early next year, when inflation is likely going to be well in excess of our target, i think it's not realistic. i think the more likely scenario is we raise rates, and we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well back down to 2%, before i think about easing on interest rates. manus: let's get to our asia economy reporter. michelle, how does this impact the fed's strategy? they don't want to lose all credibility, do that? -- do they? michelle: the whole outline of what you and any have been talking about, the over exuberance ahead of the fed. we have been seeing this for a while. fed officials expect this would be the reaction. they see that take down by two notches in the year on year figures in cpi and they say no, do not read this as a change in strategy. now mary daly on top of kashkari and evans after the fed released saying, we will emphasize rate hikes and are not done yet. they said that before the data and are saying that after the data. this is one month and does

it leads to this message we had from neel kashkari that markets have got the message of what the fedying to do. this is to date for u.s. equities. it looks like a bad month but if you look at the same benchmark picture two weeks ago, we will have been higher into month end. you get this message from the fed they are going to go at it, try to bring inflation back down , and you get stocks that do a dramatic about-face. manus: that is perhaps more pronounced in the growth of the blue line. look at the nasdaq. the blue line below the dow. jp morgan, they look at the data to 1970, ok? they say history shows in recessions, equity markets rally by 11%. so you know, there is a catharsis if a recession comes because it emboldens policy decisions, doesn't it? dani: it does. at the same time, you have to wonder. stocks had to catch up. have bonds already gotten there? we have seen a move up in the front end, two years at a 2007 hi. you start talking about peak bonds yet, or is that premature? manus: no, i'm going to show you a bear market. almost a bear market, i should be careful. the gtv lib

minneapolis fed president neel kashkari said it is not impossible it will cut rates next year, but unlikely right now given inflation is nowhere near the fed's 2% target let's talk about this and more with dana d'auria at invest net. dana, welcome back it feels like we throw a dart with the fed presidents speaking the bond and yields are telling different stories. which are you in line with >> i would pay attention to what kashkari is saying the comments when they raised rates was over done. i thought the assumption we were going to, you know, back off on rate hikes and perhaps it is not 75, but it becomes 50 and trail off and start cut rates in 2023 or early 2023 was not likely look at where inflation is we have a negative real fed funds rate you look at what is happening to lower-income families which are suffering. the fed that's stay focused. i don't think that much has changed. we are getting clarifications. >> i guess the pace of rate hikes and inflation will be different. they take time to work through 9 to 12 months or whatever that time may be from raising rates to when it starts t

we'll hear from charles evans and neel kashkari. >>> joining us now to help get you ready for the days patrick of rose advisers thanks very much for joining me. let's touch on the inflation number we're getting at 8:30 eastern time is that likely to move markets significantly, or has the risk around it and wait it implies for the fed going forward ben lessened by the jobs number we got on friday and the way the yields rose after that >> well, if it comes in as expected, you know, the reality is the inflation number is still pretty high. so even if the rate of change is 20 basis points lower or just below 9%, that's still a pretty high number. the monetary authorities are certainly trying to tackle it. whether or not the fiscal authorities will be successful in tackling inflation, i'm referring to the inflation reduction act that they just passed i think it's a miss noerm in that it will do very little to curb inflation >> in terms of the outlook for the economy as a whole, are you in the camp that expects the u.s. to avoid a recession, and where do you think the market is at the momen

the fed's neel kashkari says they will need to keep an eye on inflation and to do what it needs to bring the prices down. we will talk through the market impact on bloomberg. ♪ >> think jay powell said things that to be blunt were analytically indefensible. he claimed twice in his press conference that the fed was now at the neutral interest rate, calling it 2.5%. >> we're going to do everything we can to avoid recession but we are committed to bringing recession down and will do what we need to do. we are a long way away from achieving an economy that is back at 2% inflation, and that is where we need to get to. manus: that is the fed president and the former treasury secretary larry summers. joining me now is skylar montgomery koning, senior global macro strategist at ts. rolling back the dovish powell, how misguided is powell suggesting that 2.5% is neutral? is it wishful thinking, or indefensible, good morning. skylar: i think 2.5% is quite low, we see it as higher than that. we think the fed will hike above 4%. you need to have a significant impact on inflation to get it back to acc

fed president patrick harker, richmond fed president tom barkin and minneapolis fed president neel kashkarien, thank you both for being here andy, let's start with you on just the market yut looc we've seen a nice little bounce today. we'll see if it holds. is this an area of the market that's still feeling good to you right now for future investments? >> sure. so investors are feeling good because the month of july was one of the best in quite a while. it was a really long hope for balance in a year that's had little in the way of good news for investors. i think the reason it's happening is that earnings season is coming in much better than a lot of investors had feared companies have shown resiliency in being able to pass on inflationary costs to consumers. profits are still growing, and that means this bear market has somepotential to pee peter out >> do we have to worry about downgrading? >> thanks for having me on i hear a lot of trepidation with my clients when i talk to them every day with regard to going in the market because of what the fed is doing the fed is aggressively raising

and nordstrom and toll brothers and you have somebody from the fed speaking of course, every day neel kashkarig in minneapolis this evening and at jackson hole an lalater on in t week remember the days when the fed spoke twice a year now it is twice a day. >>> and we have the key drivers for the markets and coupled with that and options expirations that happened last week and new hurdles for your markets and money on friday and yesterday. our next guest says for long-term investors, there is always opportunity to be found we love that ing healther brilliant is the ce of diamond hill. heather, you want to invest for the long term. that is why you think as a company. a company like diagio could benefit long term. >> thanks for having me back that is a great example of where we like to look to figure out the long-term earnings power of the business that's how we invest they have great friends and investing heavily over the period i think that gives them an opportunity to come out on the other side stronger. if we go into a down turn, people trade down during the vie environments they make more an

get two stock picks in a moment thank you for getting up early i love having you on last night, neel kashkari said the quiet part out loud. he is a member of the fed. he basically said they were glad to see the stock market come down off jay powell's really hawkish comments what do you make about that? >> well, they are being very clear. they are going to accept the consequences they want to know crushing inflation is the goal. unemployment, recession, stock market crash they want to crush unemployment. i think the signaling is clear and i'll act accordingly the problem with additional rate hikes, it puts pressure on other currencies the dollar will continue to strengthen i would avoid making, you know, some of the growth stocks to be avoided. i still think look outside the u.s. there could be interesting names. companies that import into the united states. >> you know, i hate to date myself i'm getting old, cate. the 26th year i've been in business news. i'm not sure i've been in the environment where the head of the federal reserve is effectively saying i'm willing to take down the economy

we know that neel kashkari of the minneapolis fed made a big deal of the possibility that inflation is a lot worse. tell us all something we don't know, a lot worse than expected and it may be sort of more sticky and hard to pull away so what are the bets that people need to be looking at as opportunity at this very moment in light of that? >> well, i think it all hinges on the answer to your question to teddy and i think it hinges on energy, i really do. we've got a dire situation out in europe, and we've got a situation here where look at what happened when the saudis said they might have to stop production. we've got a squeeze in crude oil and own natural gas up 70% since june and up 575% since the covid lows of june of 2020. we have a problem on our hands and being driven by energy and it's not being taken care of on the supply side. we're only taking care of the demand side so my ear -- i think that you've seen that 10 year yield going up to 3.1% today because people see energy prices going up and that might wipe off the wanes that we had -- gains in cpi from 9.1 to 8.5 and only w

even neel kashkari, he is turning into a raging hawk it begs the question what is driven the rally off the june lows i look to the fed funds. right or wrong, what is priced in right now is a terminal rate of 3.7%. it is the back half of '23 that is interesting, wilfred. we will see if jay uses the comments to change the view. >> as we stand, david, do you think the risk is to the down side for markets because they are expecting a dovish tone or the other way around >> we had a strong bid off the june lows. the lows are in for the year, i think. that doesn't mean we can't go down from here or the cyclical bear market is over. we will need to see something we haven't seen yet to break the lows my biggest concern is what markets are not pricing in is energy saudi arabia's oil minister floated a trial balloon saying opec may be forced to cut proper decks. thi production this is after president biden made the visit they will not continue to sell 1 million barrels a day. we are depleting the spr it is at dangerous low levels. the only way to fix that is to buy more oil. >> in terms of the ou

neel kashkari, a dash -- a dove turned a chief hawk, we could say.ps a move to hawkishness is the overall feel? mandy: i think that that tone, everyone will be watching it. if you look at the past rhetoric from powell, he is slightly dovish. he may have a bit of dovish tone versus the other fed governors on the hawkish side. actually, i think the language will be very balanced coming-out of the next couple of weeks, into the fomc. i would not read too much into it. i think the data will speak for itself, and the key driver of decisions for the september fomc. yvonne: do you see any signs that the yield curve could steepen in the next weeks or so? mandy: i think so. there has been massive short positioning in the front and towards jackson hole this week and i think that could reverse. i don't think there is significant guidance coming out of jackson hole, so that could reverse. i guess since we are data dependent, any rarely in treasuries, is it down to just a short squeeze? mandy: definitely. not sustainable. yvonne: what about the dollar moves we ha

neel kashkari is the one who remarked loudest today. he said that, it there is some recession risk. but even if there is, he is laser focused on fighting inflation. talk about a pivot? maybe the fed cutting rates? listen to what he said earlier. doesn't want likely, desert? >> some financial markets are expected to cut interest rates next year. i don't want to say it is impossible, but it seems like a very unlikely scenario right now, given what i know about the underlying inflation dynamics. the more likely scenario is that we continue raising and we would sit there. kathleen: the latest nail in the coffin in hopes of that fed pivot anytime soon. jim bullard talk about what he said 24 hours ago. he repeated what he said in his interview today. he thinks that fed policy still has to get more restrictive. right now people are expecting 100 basis points between september and december. jim bullard is saying 4% of the funds rate by the end of the year suggests we get something more like 150 basis points. another adjustment that has to be made. tom barkin from the richmond fed says he is

so in the last 24 hours i read where neel kashkari a noted, dove, right?e is one of the biggest doves out there. he wants the fed to go in big, go in guns blazing. meantime i'm hearing from goldman that powell will not go all volcker. what are your thoughts on this? >> depends on what in monetary policy terms you mean by guns blazing. i don't think powell or anybody in his position in the more modern era would want to do a shock and awe type decision or hint around what was coming at the september fomc beating. i think it would be a little more subtle. i wouldn't be surprised to hear from powell with the pushback about the idea of a pivot. the idea of a pivot the fed going from aggressive rate hikes to rate cuts, not a pause at some point. i don't think that would be the at all to make sure the market knows their job is not finished yet and they have to continue this hiking path. that is different from a john wayne approach. >> just mentioned it. every time the market thinks the coast is clear they start to come back. valuations needed to be adjusted. they

neel kashkari said he's worried the markets will under estimate how high they will go. suggests the fmoc might need to be more address sieve. kashkari is considered the most hawkish of the fed heads that's interesting before he was the most dovish. >> right >> he needs medication or something. he has gone from one side -- bullard at one point did that as well he got hawk i shall than kneel. >> what do you say inflation is, sorkin if it's. what are we saying is the inflation rate that we need to get the two year above to withstand this cycle i want to know what it is, if we have 5, we have serious issues and jackson hole is not going to be fun. >> of course it's going to be 5. >> you have to get inflation down. >> isn't that three more -- >> bring it up to meet inflation. >> we have two or three games? >> a series of 500%. what's that going to do for the ee done my estimate. >> we're going to kill the economy because that will help that's not going to do anything to energy prices in germany and europe something we can't go for. we're going to keep raising, raising, raisi

even neel kashkari is saying that but does that explain, for instance, let's take a look -- we know thetock market can be emotional but the bond market is supposed to be even keeled, right, the canary in the coal mine. look at these bond yields this is amazing. shah, how do we explain even the action in the bond markets. i understand stock markets being emotional, huffing, maybe praying, thinking, guessing, but how do you explain what is happening with the bond market? >> i think investors are front running the fed. the assumption is, it is pretty widespread, widely-held, the fed is going to raise, will have to raise, and as they raise eventually they cause a deeper recession. we rather have some inflation i think we'll have for a few years than a deep recession. they're looking forward. expecting a pivot at some point. a lot of analysts say maybe first half of next year, back half at the latest. investors are buying they're front running that pivot. that is as simple as it gets. the market bottomed when the 10-year in june hit 3.48%. two days later stock market bottomed and as bonds ha

elizabeth: let's watch federal reserve president neel kashkari.n wages are rising wages are going up the federal reserve has to work harder to keep inflation down. watch this. >> wages continue to climb. on one level it's a good thing. we want americans to be making more money but if wages are climbing such that the economy shows that it is overheating that tells me that the federal reserve has more work to do to bring inflation down, to bring the economy into balance. elizabeth: i mean he means it as an indicator, right? he doesn't say we have to interest rate the wages down with interest rate hikes. your final word what he just said, congressman. >> think about it, when you raise wages in an inflationary period or artificially what is going to happen to the small mom-and-pop shops? to stay in business they have to either raise prices or they go out of business. when it is done so quickly this is what happened. if the happens incrementally that's different. so we're actually hurting ourselves, causing ourselves to be in recession because prices h

jonathan: do you still call neel kashkari a hawk? tom: i did not. a good friend of the show but i never thought i would see the shift. i have huge trouble with the word "pivot," whether it was president biden pivoting to the pacific. it is a marketing phrase, an image phrase to describe a sarcastic process where you have mysterious abilities to make a turn at some point, whether it is red sox baseball, the tots, whatever. pivot is baloney. that's all there is to it. jonathan: that's it. tom: baloney, john, is an american food meet. i'm not sure if you are familiar. jonathan: no idea. i am familiar. it is a process the way you go from 75 to 50 to 25. that's what a lot of people are still looking for. yesterday goldman said a shift down to 50 and 25 and maybe stop at 3.5% and sit there for two years. lisa: we heard some pushback saying perhaps you have to go for -- further. andrew hollenhorst saying people don't understand the neutral rate and it is much higher. jonathan: baloney, it tastes good? tom: with olives and mentos it is awesome. -- to mentos

mike: charlie evans a little more dovish than neel kashkari but they will deliver the same bottom-linebut we will wait until we get much closer to the decision to make a decision about what we will do in september. as cameron was saying, things can go back and forth. greg peters was talking about how volatility is the name of the game. that is what we will be seeing with all of these numbers for the next month. nobody really knows where we are going with this. tom: michael pond, what is your lead concept as you write or barclays this morning? cameron: from the fed perspective -- michael: from the fed perspective, you have to think of them as a risk manager. a year from now, if inflation was still hot, they will be seen as make a mistake. if inflation is softer, they will call that a win. from a risk management perspective, this print does not change the outlook. they still need to continue to focus on bringing inflation don't even though this is good news. tom: i will let you go even though you have duties. we will continue with michael mckee and cameron crise. just on a hunch, i did a

now doing the exact opposite, doing it quickly and i must tell you i am stunned that a man named neel kashkarit the fed who these people are mandated about stable prices was happy and quoted happy, that the dow dropped 1000 points on friday out of the jackson hole speech. i don't even know what to tell you. he is telling every great american who has 401(k), ha-ha, you lost a thousand points. sorry we have to do it. here is my big problem, i've been saying to you for a long time now, they're not doing this because they want to. they're doing it because they are forced to and i do not think they realize how much leverage is out there, overvaluation is out there and you know i've been calling this bear market all the way. i'm really worried about a lot more even from here because of the things they're saying and what they're going to have to do going forward. charles: gary, real quick, i took a long time in my open, you've also said it is sort of frustrating that jay powell gets to play god with all the money printing he is able to do, one single person, perhaps not even this entity should not ha

. >>> we will get comments from minneapolis fed president neel kashkari bcsqwkoxontching "ua b" cn >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. (applause) ♪ ♪ opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there. sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity... ...is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. at xfinity, we're constantly innovating. and we're working 24/7 to connect you to more of what you love. we're bringing you the nation's largest gig speed network. available to more homes than anyone else. and with xfi complete, get 10x faster upload speeds. tech upgrades for you

neel kashkari of minneapolis, he told cbs something that we've heard a lot recently about, recessionatter, inflation does. >> whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn't change my analysis. i'm focused on the inflation data. i'm focused on the wage data. and so far inflation continues to surprise us to the upside, wages continue to grow. lauren: he did admit that most americans' real wages are down. he said that at one point in the interview, and friday we get the july jobs report, and guess what? wages are supposed to be done. if you look at the annual increase, it's supposed to go up 4.9% year-over-year, and you have inflation running at 9.1%, so you are underwater no matter how you cut it. stuart: do you have an opinion, dan can ives, on the recession? are we in a recession? do we care? >> i think the street thinks we're in a recession. that's a lot of the negative environment going into stocks, but also it's a bifurcation. a lot of sectors are going to see it more than others, and i think what you're seeing here is earnings is what i'd say the gauge that investors ar

this is "making money" and breaking right now, well neel kashkari, folks, he must be delighted or atpite the selling fed officials, wall street bears they continue to scold the market and investors because it is not diving fast enough. well, i have a powerhouse lineup including ed i can't remember den i in sarah kuntz

part of it, if he does pull back, he will just have annihilated his forward guidance and made neel kashkaritute last week, point blank said 2% is the target. i can see paul saying, well, it's still -- powell saying, well, it's still the target, but it's how we get there. i would just say this, low volume, you know, a lot of people think this is a fake rally. but a lot of people think it's based on he's going to pull us. david: interesting. charlie, thank you temperature. -- very much. well, president biden expected to sign the inflation if reduction act this week after it passed in the house. joining me now is cath kathleen -- can kathleen, and you say the legislation will hurt american energy production and keep prices high. what is the worst thing in that bill that you think will keep energy prices high? >> it's all the different new taxes and increased rates and fees that will add costs onto american energy production and increase american energy prices for consumers. what we need to do right now is increase production here in the united states, not import from overseas, and by putting n

neel kashkari said he would be happy to see the market selloff, was disappointed to see the rally inecause this is not the goal. they want to see a tightening of financial conditions. how much can you push against that with his backward look of historical performance of equities in the face of recession? daniel: absolutely. on the one hand, we have rates going up, decreasing the discount rate, having a negative impact on valuations. we talk about earnings expectations. still quite rosy for next year, 10% earnings growth into next year. that is not compatible with the slowdown in growth that we think we have to see. what will be the catalyst to bring those back in line? that is the big question. at some point it has to. lisa: what are you doing with energy right now? daniel: broadly speaking we are overweight commodities. in anticipation of a recession, that is typically an environment for lower oil prices. lower demand will still happen but we are in a different world when it come to the supply side. we are not seeing that supply-side response. tom: i looked at the bloomberg total re

and neel kashkari said the fed may need to do more. he is saying he wants to hike rates.flation was encouraging, but not time for a victory map. and looking at fed with the ow average forecast to rise to 3.80 that is a significant difference in the amount or in the direction with the fed hiking and cutting rapidly. fed officials seem intent on the likely outcome for the fed to ho hike and hold. much depends if inflation comes down to convince officials it is lasting and convincing we will have a chance to talk about this stuff next week we'll have several officials on thursday from jackson hole of course, it was made official yesterday. we knew this fed chair jay powell will speak at 10:00 a.m. mountain time. i guess 10:00 a.m. eastern time and 8:00 a.m. mountain time. melissa. >> he has to say the likelihood of hiking is low next year it is straight forward for him to do the jaw boning in the direct manner, steve what i think is interesting in terms of where the market stands with the fed is they see eye to eye where rates are going to be for this year. where the dispari

tom: aerospace engineer neel kashkari there with his thoughts on the place where we are now.greed that he has gone -- ? lisa: he went from the uber dove to the uber hawk. tom: this is from ian -- he made it clear that yesterday jackson hole became important. i'm thrilled to tell you the bloomberg tv and radio is giving a full commitment to jackson hole, letting me go, dusting off the two tone tony lummis, we will try to get kailey leinz to go but michael mckee will lead coverage with kathleen hays. the british guys coming if he is back from europe. lisa: [laughter] yeah, jon will be with us. tom: and we will stop the show off the reporting of craig torres and kata unit -- katerina sarajevo with something that has been a wonderful destruction, so-called trading from fed officials. jack fitzpatrick joins us from bloomberg government. the chairman and the former vice chairman have been clear on various sundry inspector general's and that. but others have not in the question is not so much rich guys being at the fed but actually the buying and holding and selling back and forth l