>> all right rick, thank you very much. >>> in a new essay this week minneapolis fed president neel kashkarimonetary policy will derail this economic recovery neel joins us now and thank you for being here today. a lot of questions in the market after jay powell went on the, chairman of the fed went on "60 minutes" over the weekend talking about how those rate cuts basically don't expect them in march your message as well what are you seeing right now? >> we keep getting surprised in a good way that the economy is showing up to be remarkably resilient. consumer spending staying strong labor market staying strong. evidenced by the really strong jobs report friday that all is really good news telling me maybe monetary policy is not putting as much downward pressure on demand as we would otherwise think. so given that, i think we can take more time get the inflation data see it continue, hopefully to come in, very attractively around our 2% target giving us more time to assess the data before we start reducing interest rates this is a good problem to have, but we're trying to figure out some of

minneapolis fed president neel kashkari says policymakers can take their time before cutting rates claiminghat the fed's rate hikes have not been as restrictive as it appears. kashkari wrote that the neutral rate may have moved higher in the post-pandemic recovery citing the low neutral rate environment before the pandemic. kashkari said the fed now has a window of breathing space to assess economic data before deciding when to lower rates. again, adding to the more hawkish comments coming out of the fed over the last couple days. >>> switching to italy. the italian parliament is set to vote on the controversial capital markets bill today nearly a year after the legislation was first proposed. the bill aims to simplify the process to list in the country and open the process to smaller companies. the italian prime minister giorgia meloni says it will change requirements for voter rights. however, speaking to charlotte yesterday, there was a more optimistic view of the legislation. >> overall, it is positive, but there are soucertain aspects an that is a question of the final reform and what

neel kashkari in an online essay, policy is not too tight.licy is not too tight. lisa: basically saying the neutral rate may have increased, one of the key questions of whether we are running at a new normal that is hotter, one where we have enough momentum to keep growing at this pace even with 5% rates. it's possible the policy stance signals that the rate has increased. it will still be a matter of increasing the data to get the right mix of one to cut rates. jonathan: at the moment, the federal reserve has this risk friendly start. if the economy is doing well, we don't have to hike more. if it starts to underperform, we can cut. just how far back to be pushback that first cut? lisa: i would guess pretty far. if you take jay powell at his word, he is concerned about inflation running hotter than they previously thought. a lot of people looking at the forward-looking claims, things of that nature, which show a different picture. jonathan: then you get closer to the election. talking about 50 basis points of cuts from the fed. not at the ne

philip jefferson, michelle bowman, patrick harker, lisa cook, neel kashkari, christopher waller, andof economic data this week. now it will be a matter of what the governor and the presidents all feel about it what -- about what it means for the pace of rate cuts. we have had a lot of volatility this week at 20 basis point mover from close on monday to midday today, passing waste -- way past the 460 level in the two year yield. we will see if that level sustains when we hear that commentary and those fed minutes. we keep an eye on that had more next week and we have earnings to give a sense of the consumer. we have seen from other other economic data this week that retail sales and consumer sentiment. a check on the markets. the 10 year yield facing an eight basis point move up to 431 on the day. a popular trade. two year yield at 467 on the week. from new york that doesn't from us. same time same place next week. this is bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> welcome to bloomberg markets. i'm sonali basak. we have been watching producer prices all day because the in

coming up monday, a lot of fed beat from tom barkan and neel kashkari.uesday, all eyes on the latest cpi print. all eyes on inflation. wednesday, hedge funds set to disclose their quarterly 13 etf filings. hedge funds have been more by etf's tied to that bond market. more in the pipeline later in the week with austan goolsbee and michael far. thursday, u.s. retail sales. friday, we get u.s. cpi data. for my final thought, a closer look at those cpi estimates. we are getting closer, according to investor expectations at least, to the 2% level. the last read we got was 3.4%. really starting to barrel down. the estimate of 2.9% is meaningfully lower than that. year-over-year, core cpi expected to come in at 3.7%. core cpi month over month coming in at .3% according to expectations. we know there is a lot of concern about a reacceleration of inflation. and we may have some interesting moves in the bond market if we don't see either meeting those expectations. or more signs of areas that might see room for issues. that does it from new york. same time, same p

. >> neel kashkari on how the fed is not reached its inflation goal. guest things 2024 would be more about how far and how fast it can ball. brad gibson joins us now. an interesting chart to the year if you've been watching global bonds. if you take a look at this chart, it surprised me to see that despite the moves we've seen in recent trading sessions, volatility is actually pretty close to multiyear low and the move is not too far off its multiyear either. how are you structuring the narrative for treasuries and bond markets going into this year? brad: what's interesting is forward volatility is still quite contained. the rate cutting cycle this year , that fairly cinderella environment for the bond market and certainly the options market , with the -- whether the fed cuts in march or june, for longer-term vista, bonn you'll's have got to be supported in that environment. haidi: where do you see the best opportunities then? >> yields are going to be lower, and with respect to the yield curve, and the levels required in the short range, not just in t

and we have patrick harker and neel kashkari speaking today >>> and we have enthusiasm with nvidia'sport look at futures right now which are in the green right now the dow would open up 100 points higher t. is about the nasdaq at 2% higher in the pre-market. for more on the trading day ahead, let's bring in katrina dudley at franklin mutual. great to have you here >> thanks for having me. >> nvidia and mega cap tech. what is your view after the blowout report >> people love to look for the negative in this why don't we just celebrate the fact we have the amazing american company that is fueling demand and not only did they just beat what we were expecting, which were fairly elevated revenue expectations -- >> very? >> yes they beat that high bar. let's think about the context in which they did that. they did it almost with one hand tied behind their back the supply is disrupted by taiwan semi which cannot meet demand we have not talked about china they said the number would have been higher if they had that china revenue. >> here is the tough question. when you talk about clients or

speaking to cnbc, minneapolis fed president neel kashkari outlined his approach to the fed path. >> there'seen pa lot of debat with the speed of which we cut. if the labor market continues to be strong, that would give me confidence to say we can dial back slowly from here if we saw that material slowdown in the market and that would say we need to start cutting rates a little more quickly. that's why it is the speed of the reductions that the labor market has a bigger influence over. >> it is not quite the end of the week, but feels like a friday. we will look back at u.s. markets. you can see all of the three majors actually are looking like they are tracking green for the week. the dow barely so up 6 points. the s&p is very, very close to breaking through 5,000. that would be an all-time high. we closed at a record yesterday. for the week, all of the indices are positive. nasdaq had mixed results to the tech earnings which have come out, but the nasdaq is up .80%. this is what u.s. futures look like today. s&p is lower. the dow and nasdaq a bit higher. that is it for the show today. i'm

>> patrick harker this afternoon and neel kashkari and chris waller who has always made a lot of noiseharkre is before the bell, but we are going to get some news that will train into tomorrow from some of those fed officials. >> we will continue to keep an eye on that. thank you so much. of course the headline, then vice chair jefferson saying that it is likely appropriate to cut later this year. but let's go back to the micro, let's go back to nvidia because it is getting fresh highs today after delivering another eye-popping sales forecast. here is what market watchers had to say. >> the most sensational set of results for nvidia. >> this is really the earnings heard around the world. >> i will do my best to serve contain my enthusiasm. >> each quarter, to continue to surprise. the only result that was going to be acceptable was a substantial beach. >> this is a company that continues to execute and completely blown by everybody's most robust forecast. there is great momentum there. people are begin to wonder how many consecutive quarters can this company continue to run with? >> th

charles: you mentioned also, neel kashkari his essay, essentially, everyone should read it but the linesuggests to me that the current stance of monetary policy may not be as tight as we would have assumed. what's he saying there? >> he is effectively calling into question if this tight policy is actually impacting the growth of the real economy? i think it is really interesting. charles: is it? >> well maybe not as much as it has in prior cycles. charles: essentially a lot of people are saying just the supply chain, once that was fixed you know, but, does it make the fed irrelevant? [laughter] >> well in some ways the fed made itself less relevant over the last 15 years. by doing quantity quantity and quantitative easing interest rates really low, the fever pitch in that, 2021, remember the .5% 10-year yield? what that allowed companies and households to do to borrow longer term. charles: right. >> we see the economy's reliance on short-term debt is lower than any other cycle. when the fed raised rates there was less pinch to the quality. charles: when you came on the show, people say

neel kashkari published a piece, the minneapolis fed president, he is thinking about whether rates areictive. here is the money quote from his piece. the constellation of data suggests to me that current stance of monetary policy may not be as tight as we would have assumed, given the low neutral rate environment that existed before the pandemic. they're trying to figure out -- >> explain to people what he's talking about. >> neutral rate before the pandemic. >> the rate that doesn't hurt the economy or help the economy, and it was super low. >> yeah. >> before the pandemic. right. and they're trying to figure out where it is now because we're in a different economy. we have a lot more fiscal spending that's propping up the economy. we have experiences still booming. hertz doesn't see any slowdown today in terms of tourist activity. even though they have other issues with the evs. it's an economy that has been able to weather and handle higher interest rates. how long? we don't know. we're going to get a lot more fed speak today. by the way we'll hear from mester, kashkari, collins, ha

it speaks to what neel kashkari was saying yesterday we are looking at a higher neutral rate. how restrictive is the fed funds rate when you have an economy that if it's not slowing down it could even be accelerated. jonathan: just phenomenal. lisa: given the fact headline figures were greater than expected but prices paid search the most going back to august of 2012. it's the red sea disruptions, the fact things are getting more expensive. >> it all sounds pretty bleak so forgive us. goldilocks on life support. a bill in d.c. that's apparently dead on arrival. annmarie: it potentially is on life support as well. bill republican james lankford who authored part of this bill says he's not willing to hold its funeral just yet. what we know from behind closed doors, a punch bowl had a great report saying what mitch mcconnell has said who continues to back this bill is saying the political mood has changed. so if this drags on for much longer, potentially we could see them come around. a lot of carrying of grievances out loud in washington dc. lisa: i am so deeply frustrated by th

confirmed, we didn't have as much partisan discord around confirmations, there were individuals like neel kashkari and jim lambright and several others who had had appointments and posts in the bush administration at the department of treasury. and this financial crisis with hank paulson as the treasury secretary under bush, very much well documented. but there were individuals who were working under bush who stayed on for continuity purposes to explain why things were written a certain way or procedures were happening. as tarp was being administered. to work alongside us. members of the team that we put together under steve ratner and ron bloom, they weren't partisan. they weren't political appointments. steve, ron and i were the only white house appointees on that initial auto rescue. this was the best of our country that stepped forward through long and sleepless and tireless nights, working in excel, managing a host of stakeholders, sending memos and recommendations to the white house and the president of the united states himself, there were deadlines, they had been put into place by the prev