as ever i'm happy to say neil atkinson joins us. it's interesting because the last time we spoke oil was trading at $70, we're up to $80. what do you point that down to >> well, we've seen over the last month or so the fact that the data for sanctions against iran has gotten closer, a falloff in supply from venezuela. we're approaching a position where the market might be getting tighter the later part of this year the price action we've seen represents that. and also, of course, demand, though the growth recently has been a bit slower, overall demand is still growing fairly strongly >> and actually just picking up on one key paragraph from the iea report, you're saying we're entering a crucial period for the oil market things are tightening up does that mean you envision oil prices overshooting $80? >> the market is expected to tighten during the later part of this year because if iran's exports do fall by a considerable volume, we'll rely on our producers to increase output to make up for that of course iran is not the only major