kevin cirilli, we have neil dutta with us.is a continuation of a 4% plus gdp economy. you nailed that. what do you see in the quarter we are in right now? i do not think we taylor loft. one of the think -- we tail off. one of the things we learned is that inventory investment remains low demand. inventory represents the potential upside risk for growth. we have been under building inventories and that can turn quickly. there is concern around consumer spending because inflation has picked up. focus on real average hourly earnings is misplaced. that is not the right way to gauge. tom: what is the right way? hours, earnings. was that a good sign for consumer spending? how many people are working? it is important to recognize jobs growth in the private 215,000s running at this year. we are seeing more jobs growth, more hours work and that means total income is growing. that is going to drive consumer spending. focusing on hourly earnings and deflating it i inflation is misleading. nejra: what does this mean for the yield curve? y