neil dutta joins us. have you adjusted your q3 guesstimate for q3 or q4? we have taken down q3 a little bit but i have bumped up q4. more momentum going into the fourth quarter. whether that is in inventory rebuilding or consumer spending to the extent that delta variant is a cause of any weakness in consumption. we know that is beginning to turn around somewhat. we are seeing things like travel bookings picked up, traffic pickup. michael: -- tom: what did you get out of retail sales? i was overwhelmed by amazon like nonretail sales. i looked at all of the good news of american nonretail store consumption. what did you see ex challenges in automobiles? neil: even if you take non-store retailers out the number is solid. from a macro perspective, despite the spread of coronavirus, retail sales beat. that is the main takeaway. it stands to reason as these things come under more control that there is more room for consumer spending, particularly -- remember food and drinking places tend to speak for restaurants was flat in august. i would not of been on that go

let's pick up on a comment from a viewer and good friend of this program, neil dutta of renaissance macroator warren's comments against chair powell will likely improve his chances. republicans now have cover to vote for his confirmation should he be renominated." tom: dutta is cynical. jonathan: good take, though. interesting. tom: it is. i looked up the greenspan battles from when greenspan was reappointed. it is all the same. lisa: did you actually think it was in question whether republicans would vote for confirmation? was it ever an issue? jonathan: it might give more republicans a little more cover. lisa: he was nominated and put there by president trump. jonathan: he is a republican. lisa: anyway, carry on. tom: right now, ben laidler with us and jay pelosky as we switch over to fixed income, ira jersey , running fixed income strategy for bloomberg intelligence. we are coming up on $1.5 trillion. worry that, worry long-term, were a short term. which part of the yield curve right now matters to ira jersey? ira: i am looking at the five year and the seven year sector because that wi