neil fergs ferguson. >>> vladmir putin. he's just declared nato a threat to russia but how much of a threat is he to the west? >>> finally, one of the world's top fashion houses. they make shoes, handbags, skirts and now jobs. yes, indeed. >>> first, here's my take. over the last two decades, the united states has approached the middle east through its own conceptual frame works, secularism versus religion, order versus chaos. but the most significant trend shaping the region today is something different. sunnis versus shiites. that struggle affects every aspect of the region's politics. it's confounded american policy in the past. it's pressured the shiaa revival. the american invasion of iraq in 2003 was the tipping point. the u.s. suffered bringing democracy to iraq. >> we will not relent until your country is free. >> but people in the region saw something different. the upending of the balance of power. sunnis who make up 85% of all muslims had long dominated the arab world even in shiite majority countries. like iraq

i'll ask neil ferguson, the author of a massive biography of the 92-year-old elder statesman.t do they call people from phoenix anyway? phoenix-ers? phoenix-ites? chuck, you from phoenix, what do they call you all? phoenicians... like the blinds. no no no, you mean venetians? why would people from phoenix be called venetians? why indeed... iand quit a lot,t but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended release technology, helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose nicoderm cq. when a moment turns romantic why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, ups

let's get a single best chart right now on neil ferguson, this ideal of comparing china and india.he stereotypes that can be said here, but there it is. per capita gdp for china and india, back 20 years -- this is a long chart were slope matters and percent change matters. meghnad desai with us. china falling down on growth, or is it about india and modi is going to catch up? meghnad: i think both. china will grow at 5% or 6% in the foreseeable future. india can grow at 7.5% to 8%. i think they will converge together, but it will take 25 years. is a convergence of 25 years, adam posen -- when you the at olivier blanchard, template here is the gloom of the new mediocrity. do you just assume we move beyond that, back to growth for china? growth for india? or for that matter, growth for the united states? adam: you cannot assume that anymore. i think the imf and others are right to worry about it. i think olivier blanchard are is as confident as stan fischer is that we can come back. about thedesai says catch-up of india and china coming from both, with india sustaining and perhaps ga

our guest degrees -- neil ferguson, harvard university professor. great to have you on. >> good to be here. francine: if you look at the turmoil on the markets, there is a little bit of anxiousness that there. what are people in davos saying? it seems like they are still optimistic. >> it's sometimes a good idea to ignore what people in davos are saying and take a step back, rather than worry about one-day moves let's ask where we are. this is phase three of the crisis. phase one was the usa . phase two is the european. this is the chinese. we need to understand why there is so much nervousness in the global economy. i don't think we are necessarily looking at the right indices -- tom: what would you look at? >> i think we should look out worlat world trade. it's interesting to try and look at that. exodus of capital in china is making it difficult for chinese authorities to achieve what they want to achieve, which is a very gradual depreciation of their currency. i don't think that will be possible. that is a key point -- professor, what you are so

we will take a look at neil ferguson's chindia. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. tom: breaking news. you need to know that the pros are in awe of this transaction. that would be the transaction of the century in oil and gas. it goes back to standard oil and mr. rockefeller to get the perspective on what that means. there is a statement from saudi aramco this morning. our statement on jobs day is a stable but fragile take. we need to get to first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: stocks in china are steady today, one day after the global markets were rattled. sources say state-controlled funds purc

i want to bring in my special guest, neil ferguson joining us.d university. hoover senior fellow. thank you for joining us. what is your take on all of these headlines in the global economy traveling the world, speaking to so many people. >> let's take a step back because we are focused on the short run. think of this as sequential. the u.s. crisis in 2008-2009. that was more or less dealt with by the fed and there was a year of some crisis which blew up somewhat later. more left by the ecb. now we have a crisis spill into the global economy. it is not just the growth number which in any case we probably shouldn't believe. it is much more about capital. the chinese are pessimistic. there is massive outflows of a great ball of money trying to get out of china and that brings the risk of a significant appreciation of the chinese current day. that puts it on other emerging markets, the risk of a currency word in oil has felt the pain from a chinese lowdown. that is what i think we are seen, the third of a sink with prices back to 2008. maria: we loo

chemical ceo, and bank of america ceo brian moynihan and speak with harvard professor of history neil ferguson. and "varney & company" is next, stay tuned for ashley in for stuart. take it away. ashley: what a beautiful back drop davos is in sight. and the end is in sight, stuart's vacation. and the big selloffs becoming the norm these days. another triple digit drop coming up, 300 points or more, right now we're down 252 on the futures. the culprit, of course, again is oil. fresh 12-year bee lolobelows. >> and $27.

chemical ceo, and bank of america ceo brian moynihan and speak with harvard professor of history neil ferguson and zhang xin. and "varney & company" is next, stay tuned for ashley in for stuart. take it away. ashley: what a beautiful back drop davos is in sight. and the end is in sight, stuart's vacation. and the big selloffs becoming the norm these days. another triple digit drop coming up, 300 points or more, right now we're down 252 on the futures. the culprit, of course, again is oil. fresh 12-year bee lolobelows. >> and $27. and when someone said it would drop to $25, we laughed. but it's not far off. netflix has gone global, and that's a winner, just barely and pointing higher. how about this, sarah palin endorsing donald trump. iowa caucuses two weeks ago-- away i should saw. i'm excited and eric trump, donald's son is here, and he'll talk about sarah palin and the campaign in general. a blanket of snow could be in the northeast. were you one of those people complaining when it was 70 degrees on christmas? i was. guess what? things are changing. and leonardo dicaprio slamming the oil in

let's bring in neil ferguson, and here to talk china with us is the managing director at kissinger associates, in the old -- >> in his prior. >> recovering. >> right. gentlemen, talk a little bit about china because we've. talking about it from the market's sper teperspective, bu joshua, you see big concerns? we heard from christine le guard this morning saying it's a communications problem that china has right now. you think there's a loot more going on? >> i don't know that that accurately characterizes my view on it. my view is china is in the mids of a transition beginning with the reformed opening in 1998, continuing with ambitious goals. like any process, grappling with unknown. the level of complexity, that 1% growth is at a level far greater than years ago, but it's true if the long term goal of china is moving more people middle class, the economic model the last decade was not going to work. there had to be a transition. we're seeing that now. inevitably in transition, the old models shut down, new emerge, that means slowing down. >> looking at the communism party saying even though