professor neil ferguson, welcome to hardtalk. thank you for having me. would you say is britain's covid situation right now? i think it's probably second only to the situation we were in on 22nd of march before lockdown in terms of really the prospects going forward. and in some ways, bleaker still. the new variant of the virus everybody will have heard about transmits considerably more effectively than our previous variance, probably 50—70% more transmissible, and that means control measures which have worked in the past to contain the spread may not work in the future. the one silver lining, of course, is that we are rolling out vaccines now in the uk and the faster we can do that, the faster we can protect people and reduce the toll of the disease we're seeing currently. would it be fair to say that the scientists did see this coming. i mean, you refer to the new variant of covid—19 which clearly has affected the uk arguably more than any other country in the world, may have originated here — it seems it did. but the scientists were warning as early a

professor neil ferguson, - policy. 0k, we will leave it there.or neil ferguson, thank you forjoining us, thank you.— forjoining us, thank you. thank ou. professor ferguson they're talking about whether or not there should be about whether or not there should be a blanket ban on visitors coming into the uk and on citizens having to quarantine. traveling from abroad come in the transport secretary has just tweeted to confirm that the uae, united arab emirates, burgundy and rwanda will be added to the uk's red list. so those countries where, if you are a foreign national to me will not be allowed into the country, but if you are a brick traveling from those countries, you will have to quarantine. they have been added to the red list as of this friday, tomorrow at one o'clock in the afternoon. that means people arriving from those countries are transiting through will be denied entry except for british, irish and third country nationals with residents who must self—isolate for ten days at home. so, the uae, united arab emirates, but run the have been

exactly what the uk has seen the >> reporter: neil ferguson, professor of mathematical biology and advises the british government on covid. >> this virus changes two ways, it is spread easily and more likely to die. >> how long will it take for it to spread to the rest of the united states or will it >> it will spread to the united states, we think between 40% or 50% of greater transmission. >> reporter: when and how does this strain spread faster than the original virus >> we just in frequent contact, meeting someone on the streets or stopping to have a coffee without wearing a mask the risk is low of transmission, that risk may have gone up by as much as 70%. >> reporter: new rules of th road for emerging strain, richard engel, nbc news, london. >> dr. john torres is joining us now. john, dr. fauci says it makes sense to double mask. should we do it now? >> we want a mask with two or three layers layers high thread one you can tell shine a one way you can tell is shine a light at it. if the light shines through it then you want to double mask use something like a surgical mask and put yo

stephen sackur speaks to british epidemiologist professor neil ferguson, whose early modelling of covidn influential advocate of the lockdown strategy. most lockdown measures, social distancing could be effective as we have seen in italy and china. they only work for as long as they are enforced and so if you relax those measures it comes to our critical point where transmission starts researching and that is exactly what we saw, really, across europe. good afternoon. the health secretary has warned that every time people stretch the lockdown rules it "could be fatal" and he's urged everyone to follow government restrictions to help stop the spread of coronavirus. matt hancock said the nhs was under serious pressure and could soon become overwhelmed by the spread of coronavirus. his message was echoed by england's chief medical officer, professor chris whitty, who said the new variant of the disease is spreading rapidly across the country, leaving some areas facing ‘the most dangerous situation anyone can remember‘. the labour leader, sir keir starmer says the current restrictions may n

yesterday professor neil ferguson, an epidemiologist at imperial college london whose modelling led tot at the financial times. can you reflect first of all on the fact that we are expecting global deaths from covid to hit 2 million today? deaths from covid to hit 2 million toda ? , ., ., deaths from covid to hit 2 million toda ? , ~ . . deaths from covid to hit 2 million toda ? , ~' . . . , today? yes, i think what that really shows first of _ today? yes, i think what that really shows first of all _ today? yes, i think what that really shows first of all is _ today? yes, i think what that really shows first of all is just _ today? yes, i think what that really shows first of all is just how - today? yes, i think what that really shows first of all is just how grim . shows first of all is just how grim things have been over the last 12 months. but also that we are really not out of the woods on this by any stretch of the imagination. we had the news just a couple of days ago about the new variant that is now believed to have taken hold in brazil. and i think this isjust showing that a

one hesitates to deal in hypotheticals, although andrew roberts and neil ferguson have dabbled in alternativehistory quite profitably. but it's remarkable to think of how different the 20th century might have been had the allied intervention in the nascent soviet union been successful. we have heard from doctor plokhii, that what we might call the traditional view of yalta as an abandonment of eastern europe by a week and incapacitated franklin roosevelt, is an accurate. but the grim reality of life in the soviet sphere of influence ensures that for many, yalta remains a buy word for betrayal. even if one accepts, as one must, that the options of the allies were limited given soviet strength and sacrifice. it is hard to disagree with the conclusion of sir max hastings, who in his brilliant book armageddon wrote, while churchill's life reflected the highest ideals, he was a much less sentimental and more ruthless man than churchill. roosevelt possesses, claims his most recent biographer, a more perceptive and less romantic view of the world than churchill. hastings continues, this proposition

professor neil ferguson, very good to talk to you, thanks for your time. england are to be cut during the national lockdown. the extent of the cuts has not yet been confirmed, but some in the industry are anticipating reductions of up to 50 percent. since the first lockdown in march, the government has spent billions of pounds covering the fall in ticket revenue due to low passenger numbers. the government is expected to announce further restrictions on international travel later. michael gove said measures were being discussed to make sure that ports and airports were as safe as possible. it's believed that travellers might be required to have a negative test result before coming to the uk. although the lockdown announced by borisjohnson last night applies to england, there are strict measures in place across the uk. in a moment we'll hear from our correspondent hywel griffith in cardiff but first alexandra mackenzie reports from glasgow. this is scotland's first day back into lockdown. scotland went back into lockdown at midnight, so much tougher restrict

we will discuss his legacy and the challenges ahead with neil ferguson. many questions on the plate that we know now according to our news team, donald trump appears not to be considering pardoning himself or any members of his family, but questions remain with his approval rating dropping to 34%, one of the lowest rates of presidential approval in u.s. history. what is he leaving to the nation? keep it here, this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: at of the inauguration, president trump's approval rating has fallen to 34%, underlining a term that has the lowest average approvals of any president since gallup began measuring it under harry truman. joe biden under unprecedented security. thousands of national guard troops have been sent it along with barriers preventing access to the capital and other sites. the u.s. is sending b-52 bombers to the middle east has tensions with iran continue to rise. the pentagon released pictures of the planes refueling over the region as tehran jumped up military exercises ahead of the inauguration. drills will begin later tuesday f

but we also felt, like wendy and neil ferguson, at that time, _ wendy and neil ferguson, at that time dose schedule. even now, jcvi's advice is the schedule _ even now, jcvi's advice is the schedule is a two dose schedule and that has— schedule is a two dose schedule and that has not changed. we maintain a two dose _ that has not changed. we maintain a two dose schedule is the right schedule. the difference at the moment— schedule. the difference at the moment is that we have been more permissive — moment is that we have been more permissive in when the second dose can he _ permissive in when the second dose can be given. to reiterate the advice — can be given. to reiterate the advice currently, jcvi advises that the second — advice currently, jcvi advises that the second dose of the pfizer vaccine — the second dose of the pfizer vaccine can be given at a time period — vaccine can be given at a time period between 3—12 weeks after the first dose. _ period between 3—12 weeks after the first dose, and for the astrazeneca vaccine, _ first dose, and for the astrazeneca vaccine, it — first

and our colleague, neil ferguson who kindly wrote an excellent forward put it into the context of whereare today and i appreciate him taking time. of course, all of you guys for coming on and i know how busy you are and representative gallagher not only helping around the country, worried about impending wonderful family news that's going to be coming. so everybody is busy and i'm glad you took time. but i think we have to take time because it's important and it's important in a way for those of us who have been doing asia for decades have been waiting for and now that it's here it's kind of like the dog that catches the car. what do you do now? because everyone is focused on it in a way you were sort of a lonely voice in the wilderness. one of the ways that it's helpful for me to think about it is this older concept of geo politics. and representative gallagher talked about the water that the ccp swims in. we used to swim in the water of geopolitics and we use today think about it all the time in relation to our strategy, our goals, our desires for what the world should look like and a

my colleague clive myrie spoke earlier to professor neil ferguson, an epidemiologist at imperial collegen. he gave his reaction to the 100,000 death toll from covid—19 in the uk. it's a far higher toll than i ever hoped for. and it demonstrates, really, the threat this virus has posed to the world and to this country specifically. many people have criticised me and colleagues around the country for being alarmist, but the fact is that... i mean, this virus, if allowed to run out of control, can kill basically 1% of the people it infects, and that leads to a devastating toll and devastating hospital demand as well. you advocated lockdown, a severe lockdown, and yet we have more than 100,000 people who've died. was the problem that the lockdown simply came too late? so, i think in march, we had a lot less information then, one can criticise decisions made, but i think where we didn't learn lessons — and frankly this is not a specific criticism of the uk government, but it's true across europe — is that in september, i think some of the political consensus and the population consensus aroun

we talk about his legacy, a question we put two neil ferguson in the last hour.you take a look at the foreign policy aspects of the trump administration and think it is a mixed bag? is there anything that president-elect bryden should carry on -- president-elect biden should carry on? >> i do not think it is a mixed bag if you apply civil logic to it. as america -- a simple logic to it. is america more powerful in the world that it was four years ago? probably not. our american alliances around the world in as good a shape as they were four years ago? definitely not. and in terms of the state of the u.s. body politic, which ultimately shapes america's power in the world? then we have got to say that recent events at that capitol, and more broadly, divisions in american politics, have been viewed by china and other countries as a huge strategic win for themselves. so i have to say, looking out from the perspective as an analyst, coming from a country that is a long-standing american alley, president -- ally, president biden inherits a large amount of foreign polic

advisers on that time, and one of the government four former advisers on the scientific committee, neil ferguson to be something of a clue that we will get an inquiry into how this will be handled. certainly not at the moment when the pandemic is still outraging. labour were also saying this is a moment of national tragedy. the prime minister himself says he takes full responsibility, apologising for every life lost. defending the government's records. what lessons he'd already learned, he talked about some of what was used in terms of treatment of illness. 0bviously, used in terms of treatment of illness. obviously, the vaccination programme as well. some of the interventions when people fall ill, but he's still going to be facing that from some of the families of the bereaved who are saying that today shouldn't be seen as something of a milestone, it should be seen as a tombstone and they are still criticising him for not engaging enough with them. to try to learn the lessons of the pandemic, which of course, one year ago when people were flying back into the uk from wuhan, more than a hundred

well, i i mean the figure was conceived of in the sense that professor neil ferguson did a projectiong measures weren't taken, the death toll macro could be 500,000 people, so it was anticipated. but obviously mitigating measures were taken, and i will be a lot of debate over the next months and years as to how much more could have been done or should have been done. but, you know, the critical news today, i think, is that another 1725 people have died in the last 2a hours, there are more than 37,000 people in hospital, and roughly 10% of those are in ventilated beds. so we are at a really, really critical time in the pandemic, where we have really got to make the measures that are in place at the moment work effectively. and the good news is that the number of new cases does seem to be genuinely coming down, a figure ofjust over 25,000 today, so thatis figure ofjust over 25,000 today, so that is heading in the right direction. but it is still a very, very large number.— direction. but it is still a very, very large number. sorry to cut in there, very large number. sorry to cut in the

yesterday, professor neil ferguson, an epidemiologist at imperial college london whose modelling led in some nhs regions there was a "sign of plateauing" in cases and hospital admissions. well, here to help us unpack the numbers, we can speak now to david spiegelhalter, professor of statistics at cambridge university. professor spiegelhalter, welcome. there is a lot to pick through, but you have said we are at a pivotal time, what do you mean and why? tt time, what do you mean and why? tit is an absolutely crucial time in terms of whether the measures that have been taken are controlling the epidemic and bringing the numbers down. there was a post—christmas spike, which we got over. it does seem to be broadly on average, levelling off in the country in terms of infections, and declining in some areas. some are claiming we are ina in some areas. some are claiming we are in a situation where there is a decline. that would be very good news indeed. but any effect of that will not be seen immediately any hospitalisations, which are continuing to rise, and the deaths will continue to rise

and in a way, so did one of the government's former advisers, professor neil ferguson, who used to be advisory body sage, told the bbc that he thought if more stringent measures had been enacted back in the autumn, back in september, then not all but some of the lives lost could have been avoided. so the government is going to come under huge scrutiny over how it has handled the pandemic, but for the moment, its hope is that if it can deliver the vaccine and deliver a way out of the pandemic, then obviously, further lives will be saved. but the political mood of the country will also become more positive. bereavement support charities have written to the health secretary calling for more funding, in the light of what they call "the terrible toll of 100,000 deaths from covid—19". they say some of the £500 million allocated to mental health services in england in the spending review, should be used to support bereaved families, many of whom were not able to be with loved ones as they died. the home secretary priti patel is expected to announce that british residents arriving in england