nela, thank you so much for taking the time with us today. nela: it's been a pleasure lisa:.nflation rate ahead of next week's federal reserve meeting. thank you for choosing bloomberg. this was "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ what does a good investment opportunity look like? at t. rowe price we let curiosity light the way. asking smart questions about opportunities like clean water. and what promising new treatment advances can make a new tomorrow possible. better questions. better outcomes. >>>> we start out little change and then we moved. we have 30 minutes to see what happens today. i matt miller. >> and i'm katie greifeld. bloomberg open interest starts right now. matt: stocks stall. caution mounts as investors look ahead to tomorrow's inflation report for more fed clues. oracle's

nela: we are seeing 3.3%.ng a month over month that we are not going down to like 0.2 or 0.1% monthly range. that is a nervous period for the fed. if we keep going up month over month, that is not going to drive this down to 2%. it is not just wages. it is driving up inflation. annmarie: she says we have so much growth right now, it is hard to think the interest rates are restricted at this point, are we restricted? nela: we are starting to see there is a lot more disagreement on fomc then there was previously. when inflation was unspeakably hi, it was easy to see the path, as we get closer to that 2% target, we are seeing the opinion start to diverge, where is that neutral rate and how to get there? lisa: thank you so much, we will see you for a full hour tomorrow. morgan stanley put this out. i would love your thoughts on this. payroll incomes provide strong support for consumption. stronger than the 4.5% in the third quarter. we are looking at re-acceleration of how much people are earning and the hours the

nela: i think there will be two head fakes. one was in october. them a -- the whole story of the labor market. the story is we are in a quiet period. there's not a lot of layoffs during this. how long that lasts is undetermined and what triggers it and which way whether it goes up or down is still undetermined. we are in a messy spot but i think you still see positive hiring that is healthy and can support this economy but we are lacking the dynamism that pushes us into the next century in terms of new technology. i am still worried about productivity and softness in labor market in key sectors like manufacturing. >> donald trump is talking about tariffs, already negotiating with the likes of canada potentially about what those tariffs may look like on china and mexico. is that going to help the u.s. manufacturing base or hurt. nela: it is really too soon to tell. first of all we should take a step back. economics is not immutable. it is not like physics. it depends on the context of the economy and the retaliation of other countries. we don't kno

i want your reaction to what nela said about this quite period. what can we read from this jobs report? kelsey: it's been a quiet period but the jobs data has been very volatile. i think the key in terms of interpreting the jobs report is to make sure you are looking at moving averages. we know that last month we got 12k, that was weak. that was being influenced by the weather, influenced by strikes. now we are respecting a large bounce back. what i would do is look at the average of the two. the 12th an thk 12th -- the 12,000. as we have discussed, you have seen hiring has been slowing. the good news is, layoffs are not rising. it is essentially that sweet spot for the fed that keeps them on track to cut in december. scarlet: looking at a two month rolling average rather than reading too much in november's numbers because it will be a giveback from what we saw in october, when you look at other data points that are tied to the market, jobless claims or jolts, what are they tell us what areas to monitor and keep watch over within the monthly jobs