honestly, if the president really believed what he tweeted this morning that his new nafta would pay for the wall, he wouldn't be threatening to shut down the government unless american taxpayers funds his wall. he can't have it both ways. the president's position on the wall is totally contradictory, ill-informed and irresponsible. it's not a serious proposal. it's a throw-away idea the president used in the campaign and still uses to fire up his base. a trump temper tantrum and shutdown threat isn't going to change any minds here in congress. president trump has several ways to avoid a shutdown. he should pick one and soon. but if we wind up with a shutdown, it will be entirely the president's fault. president trump himself would not dispute that in the oval office tuesday. he almost bragged that he would shut down the government. what irresponsibility. and i would just like to remind my friend, the majority leader, that if we arrive at a trump shutdown, the onus for reopening the government will soon fall in his lap. when democrats take control of the house in january, democrats w

>> well, if you rise above just the new nafta and think about trade generally, it's a signature issue for the president, there are some republicans uncomfortable with his trade position -- >> senator toomey has made it very clear that he has reservations about what's been done. >> right. but presumably on the other side there are probably some democrats in the upper midwest, the industrial states who probably aren't all that unhappy about the tough stance he's taken against china, for example. would you agree? >> let me tell you my view is that we need to deal with china, but we ought to deal with china discreetly. dealing with everybody else in the process of dealing with china, i think, is a policy that has not been positive. china stealing our intellectual property, china is not trading fairly, china is trying to overwhelm us particularly in the pacific theater, and i think we need to deal with -- and i think there's consensus that we need to deal with china. but we need to deal with china as china, not as a part of dealing with canada, dealing with mexico, dealing with europe. the

trade, we've got ratifying of the new nafta needs to move forward which is a much heavier lift with a split congress of it's creating hesitation, and in its worst case, delaying investment decisions by major companies but also fear and panic at points in time in financial markets. and that's something we're now getting our hands around this role uncertainty plays. if we could eliminate a lot of that and create more certainty for the overwith all economy, for consumers and businesses out there, you'd see much more forward momentum. one of the things we forget is what a hurdle uncertainty actually plays. and it's very hard to get your arms around it in terms of just pure numbers. but we do know now there's a lot of evidence of how much a toll on growth it can actually take. and it's already taken a toll on investment in the u.s. economy when it should be booming. gerry: how could washington reduce the uncertainty given there is the prospect of political grid lock? >> well, certainly, a clear path forward in terms of the u.s. trade relations with china, a clear path forward on u.s. trade

and it also delays, could delay some critical decisions on things like ratification of the new naftae new nafta which is already more regress we've than the old nafta was in terms of how much it's going to cost them to produce in the united states. so these are all very important things, but they get into the side, you know, the sides of the debate. the real issue is what does it mean for policy. so the more that there's distractions in washington that takes them away from making any kinds of decisions and movement forward on a policy, that's a negative for financial markets because, again, it sort of gets this issue of not knowing what the road ahead is. it clouds our vision of what the future is which causes that sense of, you know, fear to move forward. gerry: i'm going to have to wrap there, but just a one-word answer, probability of the next recession in the next year, how would you quantify it? >> it's at 75%, and i do have a recession starting in the first half of 2020. gerry: thank you very much, indeed, diane swonk. >>> just ahead, trouble across the pondful our number of th

.>> big policy question you didn't mention is nafta -- lots of uncertainty about whether the new nafta -- and i will call of -- call it that rather than a new acronym i can't remember but will a democratic-controlled house approved the new nafta when it gets a chance to do that? >> i think it's too early to say. it will depend upon ultimately it is concluded that this is better than what exists. the president says if we don't do it -- almost immediately that he would then withdraw from nafta. in my view and i don't know that i speak for the entire caucus but in my view, that would be a big mistake. very disruptive in terms of the international economy, particularly the north american and mexican trade arrangement, so i would hope the president would not do that. but it's too early to tell whether we will be able to pass that or make the determination that we should. >> my colleague was pointing out earlier today, one has simply not heard statements of support from democrats for the new nafta although -- in the party there has been some support for the old agreement. does that mean it's

no new nafta unless tariffs are lifted. are seeing them possibly as a new policy? >> we're seeing a lot of positive reception up on the hill for our call to eliminate knows tariffs now that the president's negotiated this new trade agreement. you know there are actually attacks on the u.s. they cost us about 400,000 jobs in the auto industry, in construction, and frankly, kegs of beer cost more because aluminum goes into it is more expensive. connell: right. >> losing those jobs, there is a cost to the americans. the president asked us, bear with me on that. i want to renegotiate these, yeah might cost you a little bit. connell: but they will go away for canada and mexico if i do get the deal. we took our shot to u.s. steel and i talked to david burritt, the ceo of company about this. if the president had given him any assurance that the tariffs that help his business would be sticking around. here is what he said. >> we believe this president will not blink. we are confident he will continue to do this until we get to fair

that is what modernizing nafta achieves and that's why it was important to get this new agreement done right. as a result of the tariff-free access that nafta guaranteed for more than 70% of canada's total exports is secure. and that's essential for businesses, families, jobs, entrepreneurs, and hardworking people in every corner of our country. as i said, the task isn't done. there is more hard work ahead to build resilience, strong economies that support families everywhere in canada. as i discussed with president trump a few days ago, the recent plant closures by general motors, which affects thousands of canadian and american workers and their families, are a heavy blow. make no mistake, we will stand up for our workers and fight for their families and their communities. donald, it's all the more reason why we need to keep working to remove the tariffs on steel and aluminum between our countries. [speaking french] with hard work, good will, and determination i'm confident we will get there. our shared interests, prosperity, and security demand it. before wrapping up, i'd like to pe

. >> turning to another trade issue, the new nafta -- >> it's not the new nafta just for the record. the usmc i. >> yes okay. for the press journalists who need a short version. >> it's actually shorter than new nafta in terms of letters. [ laughter ] >> before the a -- before they usmc i was assigned, the secretary said if they did a deal, steel and aluminum tariffs would be left and the president said the same yet steel and aluminum tariffs on canada and mexico are still in place and you know, the president -- the prime minister of canada almost didn't come to the signing ceremony because he was concerned about that. when will you lift tariffs? >> so, the answer to that is that there are very specific discussions going on and the ambassador and others are involved in the specifics of this that we want to resolve these issues. i think, what happened was, we have to resolve them with mexico and canada simultaneously but we are going to try to resolve you know, canada without mexico and so we ran out of time on the clock with the change of the administration. i think it's really that

let's turn to another trade issue, nafta, the new nafta, which the president -- >> it's not the new nafta just for the record. it's the usmca. >> for us journalists who need a short -- >> usmca, it's very short. it's shorter than new nafta in terms of letters. >> before the usmca -- >> thank you. >> -- was signed, wilbur ross, the commerce secretary said if they did a deal steel and aluminum tariffs would be lifted. the president said the same. the steel and aluminum tariffs are still in place. you know the prime minister of canada almost didn't come because he was concerned about th that. when are you going to lift the tariffs? >> there are specific discussions going on. we want to resolve these issues. i think what happened was we have to resolve them with mexico and canada simultaneously. we're not going to try to resolve you know, canada without mexico. >> if you assured them they would be lifted, why not just lift them? what's complicated about that? >> i don't want to go into all the details. there are conditions of lifting them. whether we agree to quotas, there are specifics that

in part because you have opposition within the democratic party -- this new nafta deal -- but you also have a lot of pro trade democrats and some on the other side of republicans. i wonder if that's one area of common ground. >> on the infrastructure front, i share ben's skepticism. one factor that is worth considering, however, is that the current white house legislative affairs director, she was actually on the staff of the house ways and means committee under bill thomas, which is under his leadership they did a massive infrastructure bill. she does have expertise in that area. we know she had -- even before the elections she had made the rounds to some powerful house democrats and talked about potential areas of cooperation, infrastructure being one of them. and that the president had -- you know, her message from trump was that he wants to do this and he does recognize it will cost money. he's willing to accept that. but that is one kind of hopeful sign amid many, many, many skeptical signs of potential area of cooperation. another area that i don't think would happen, but will ge

it is actually shorter the new nafta in terms of letters. [laughter] >> before the us mca. >> thank you. >> wilbur ross said the terrace would be lifted the president said the same. so the prime minister of canada almost did not come to that signing ceremony because he was concerned? >> the answer to that is there are very specific discussions and if ambassador light heiser are involved in the specific we want to resolve these issues. we have to resolve them with mexico and canada simultaneousl simultaneously. we will not resolve canada without mexico. we ran out of time on the clock with the change of the administration. i think it is really that simple so now the new administration is in place to take priority of the economic team to resolve these issues. >> but after the deal was signed why not just lift them? what's so complicated about that? >> when you say we assured them i don't want to go into all the details but there are conditions of lifting them. whether we agree to quotas or something else like other countries, they are specific

to call the new nafta? >> i'm with you. >> i think getting nafta done will be a surprisingly tough fight. i think the president made it more complicated for himself over the weekend, in which he almost dared the democrats to violate the six-month line in the sand that he drew. >> does the fact that republicans kept control of the senate mean that the tax cuts are safe and sacrosanct and the deregulatory agenda is safe and the judges continue to be confirmed at the pace we saw? greg: trump's veto is good. even if the democrats tried to kill his tax cuts, that would die in the senate, of course. i think you will see status quo. unfortunately, one area where you would like to see some action would be on the deficit, but everyone is oblivious to the deficit. we will have some action on raising the debt ceiling. yes. some, you know, coming together around raising the debt ceiling. reporter: late spring. late spring. that's going to be an interesting fight. gerald: that's a vehicle for getting other things done tr

and does he woo his own republicans who are concerned about changes to this new nafta? the response from sort of the labor community and other sort of key democratic constituencies has been -- i guess i would call it kind of luke warm. i mean it hasn't been -- they have acknowledged that there are things in it that they like. but it's not like a big warm embrace of it either. so i think it is going to be very, very tricky, particularly in the house. house -- you know, house democrats are -- woe saw in the last debate over trade promotion authority, it's just not where the democratic base is. that's not where the energy is. another trade deal. even if it is viewed as being better than the current nafta. in terms of areas where i see a little bit of potential for bipartisan cooperation, one that a lot of people have mentioned to me is some type of privacy legislation, something that is not particularly viewed as super partisan. i would really keep my eye on that. i think there is going to be some movement there. you know, every month or so, there is some, you know, databa

okay, so the president says really under the new nafta deal, mexico and i guess canada too would payhe wall. didn't he say a while ago that mexico would pay. and then he's making it seem as if g, not mexican taxpayers but american taxpayers who will benefit from the new trade deal. >> jesse: he is saying if you rectify the auto and steel trade imbalances through the new nafta negotiation, you're going to come out on top. that's what's going to be able to pay for the wall. to greg's point. >> dana: i am smiling. >> jesse: i thought that that was a pretty good answer. can i stop the presses? greg has not stopped talking throughout the entire show. ready? birds are very territorial. i have bombs all over my head. i would be a terrible bald person. and i have a better idea than animals are great that's really going to take off. this is the stuff we are confronted with during the commercial break. how my supposed to compose myself? >> emily: you just violated the commercial break rule. >> jesse: is there a rule? >> greg: i do have bumps on my head. >> juan: are you drinking espresso? >> g

i would point out in nafta one of the disappointment in, the new nafta, usmca, one of the disappointmentswas about the u.s. insisted on basically reducing the government procurement obligations. so while we know will be buying our government will be buying lesson canada and mexico, their governments will be buying less from us. so this particular project i think the americans had a better shot at it before they left less shot at it after usmca is adopted trip to one of the thing related to that i heard on capitol hill was theirs and changes in what's called investor state dispute settlements which is a system that allows investors to active in one country to challenge the government of another country if thee contractors violate or the the rights are abridged. the exact details of the, is a scaled back, there are controversial. the administration and ambassador lighthizer were against it buton it was scaled back from mexico and a limited for canada it's possible american investors -- eliminated. an energy producer might be able to take advantage of that system investor state dispute settl

asked a really good question about the prospects for trade, particularly since the new nafta agreement will have to go before congress. what do you think? you covered these issues in the past. pro-trade democrats out there, even in the incoming congress. so it is definitely an area that is going to get attention. it will remain to be seen how the president works woo his own he republicans who are concerned about changes to this new nafta? the response from the labor community and other sort of key constituencies has been, i guess i would call it lukewarm. they have acknowledged there are things in it that they like, but it is not a big warm embrace of it either. be very, veryill tricky, particularly in the house. saw in therats, we last debate over trade promotion authority, it is just not where the democratic base is. that is not where the energy is. another trade deal. even if it is viewed as being better than the current nafta. in terms of areas where i see a little bit of potential for bipartisan cooperation, one that a lot of people have mentioned to me is some type of privacy leg

. >> yeah, so is the new nafta on or is the new nafta going to be off? and now he wants complete comprehensive immigration reform with this deal? that tweet is confusing, if nothing else. great to see you. thank you so much. a lot to discuss. if this goes into had next congress, which is likely, what does that mean for the democratic majority in the house? joining me is politico's congressional bureau chief, i was joking to my producer, you and i on tv together is like the inmates running the asylum. a great quote today saying what part of democratic majority and he's not getting the wall do they not understand. that is a pretty confident statement. you have reporting on what the democratic majority could be planning. what are the options? >> well, boris mentioned it in his introduction also, that they have three options they're talking about. one is a short-term funding bill to reopen the government, restart negotiations. that would allow government operations to continue until february 8th. the other two are fund everything but the homeland security de

will the president's latest tweet about the new nafta shake the whole thing up? stay with us. whatever the mess, irobot has your everyday solution. roomba vacuums up dry debris and pet hair throughout your home. and for wet messes, say hello to the braava jet mopping robot. its precision jet spray and vibrating cleaning head loosen and scrub stains from your hard floors. braava jet is designed to navigate kitchens, bathrooms and even those hard to reach places. so you can enjoy cleaner floors and a fresher home everyday. you, roomba and braava jet from irobot. better together. ♪ the greatest wish of all... is one that brings us together. the lincoln wish list event is here. sign and drive off in a new lincoln with $0 down, $0 due at signing, and a complimentary first month's payment. only at your lincoln dealer. i can do more to lower my a1c. because my body can still make its own insulin. i take trulicity once a week to activate my body to release its own insulin, like it's supposed to. trulicity is not insulin. it works 24/7. it comes in an easy-to-use pen. and i may even lo

how easy will it be to get this new nafta as the president is naming it? i just started to look into statements of what senators have said. you have elizabeth warren, it doesn't have enough protection for workers. saying he doesn't like these provisions involving investor protections in that new agreement. you have senator rubio also saying, this deal is going to really hurt florida's seasonal vegetable grower industry. there's a lot of broader philosophical concerns. and either administration is going to have to twist arms here or work outside deals. >> brennan: has the government shut down been averted? >> check back in with us on friday, we'll see. >> you never say that. >> he might sign on off something that will get more time to allow those to mourn the patting of bush 41. but we will see. let's see what happens. we'll be back in a moment with our panel and look back at the legacy of george h. w. bush. >> brennan: back with bob schieffer plus susan page, washington bureau chief for "usa today" and author of "the matriarch: barbara bush and the making

looking at the big items, the so-called new nafta, the usmca. they are going to have to push in congress in the new year to get this cleared. there is no guaranteed -- there is no guarantee whatsoever this gets push. they are putting on a squeeze play they are threatening to , withdraw from nafta, giving lawmakers the choice of approving the new nafta or having the entire trade regime collapse. it will be interesting to see how the congress responds, but the administration is planning to make an all-out push behind that. there are other agenda items that they don't really control, but what they want to make progress on. one of the obvious ones is north korea denuclearization talks, which don't seem to be paying off at the moment. that is something they are committed to in the medium to long haul. we will see them advance with that. the administration has, on several occasions, promised to release its middle east peace plan. when i tell you they are promising to release their peace plan, take it with a grain of salt. we will see if they do. that w

guest: usmca is the new nafta. it is not yet in front of congress. so the president reached a deal signed it at the g20 and argentina. obviously the fight in congress is going to be a long one and it has not even really started. what is called the implementing bill has not been written by the administration. all the changes in u.s. law that need to be made democrats and republicans both still want to weigh in on. turns out some of the democrats that have been closely involved in the negotiations with the administration are calling for a reopening of the agreement. host: explain that. when this gets to the floor are their chances to amend it if there are parts of it members of congress do not like or is this an up or down vote on what the trump administration is negotiating? guest: on the negotiate -- on the agreement it is an up or down vote on everything that has been negotiated. if they reopen the agreement or make changes to the actual deal that is still in flux. and the agreement is done what the members of congress will vote on is the so-called

if you look at the so-called new nafta, they're going to have to go to bat for the agreement and make a push in congress in the new year to get this cleared. there's no guarantee whatsoever that this gets passed. they're putting on a squeeze play and threatening to withdraw entirely from nafta, giving lawmakers the choice of approving the new nafta, or having the entire north american trade regime collapse. it's going to be interesting to see how the congress responds, but the administration is planning to make an all-out push behind that. there are other agenda items that they just don't really control, but that they want to make progress on. one of the obvious ones is north korea denuclearization talks which don't seem to be paying off at the moment, but that's a project they're committed to during the medium and long haul and see them advance with that. the administration has on several occasions promised to release its middle east peace plan. so when i tell you they're promising on the middle east peace plan, that would add another layer to the foreign policy agenda. on some of th

that will set a deadline of six months for the new congress to approve the revised and rebranded nafta. >>> joining me now is melanie zanona with "the hill" and a reporter from the washington post. months of trade talks between the u.s. and china have proved unsuccessful. why is this any different? >> look, the trade war has been put on a temporary pause, there's a cease-fire but it's not over yet. now there is a 90 day clock for the talks to continue. they have to come to an agreement on a whole host of thorny issues. it's not just trade but also over intellectual property theft, cyber theft. there are a whole bunch of things they have to come to an agreement on. keep in mind there are competing forces in the white house. in the one corner you have steven kn steve mnuchin and the other corner though you have his trade advisor, peter navorro, who's an absolute hawk on this issue. he wants the president to take a tougher stance against china. it could be the battle of which side of this comes through with the president. we'll just have to wait and see. but in the meantime, united states

the free trade deal, you did negotiate, with mexico and canada, new nafta, how quickly will that move through congress? >> there's a process under the trade promotion authority i'm expecting in the next months that it will have a vote on, i would say this -- >> brennan: in the new year. >> certainly within next few months. this is the strongest and best trade agreement the united states has ever negotiated. it's the biggest, $1.2 trillion worth of economy, worth of tra trade, it's the best on labor, it's the best on manufacturing. the ip protections are unheard of in the past, we have currency provisions in there we have this whole digital trade, financial services. there's a lot of very, very important innovation in here built on things that people have done in the passed most far reaching agreement the united states has ever negotiated. i believe witness be a model for future. >> brennan: when will the president withdraw from the existing nafta that he is said he's going to do? >> we'll see. this that's a decision that's up to the president of the united states. >> brennan: thank yo

if you look at the big items on their agenda, the new nafta, right? the usmca, they're going to have to go to bat for this agreement. they've got to make a real push in congress in the new year to get this cleared. there's no guarantee that this gets passed. they're threatening to withdraw entirely from nafta. essentially giving lawmakers the choice of approving this new nafta or having the entire north american trade regime collapse. it's going to be interesting to see how the congress responds. the administration is planning to make an all out push behind that. there are other agenda items they just don't really control, but that they want to make progress on. one of the obvious ones is the nor north korea denuclearization talks. the administration has on several occasions promised today release its middle east peace plan. when i tell you they're promising to release their middle east peace plan, take it with a grain of salt. we'll see if they do. that would add a whole other layer of complexity to their foreign policy agenda. some of these agendas,

not justin trudeau just trudeau who has a very different name for it he's basically calling it the new nafta and then we have the canadian ministry of global affairs there say it's the candidate us mexico agreement and then you have in mexico they did a little poll to see on twitter who do the people want there and that would be called teaneck so everybody's got a different name for the exact same agreements could be interesting to see how that plays out. hold through this with a log as i put my money on donald trump it's probably going to go his way hey alex just real real quick thirty seconds give me your grade for the president so far on trade and why thirty seconds you know i think we just heard some really interesting points there from steve and that is that whatever the democrats do now is probably going to go into effect into our pockets of the canadians and mexicans what they wanted in the first place. there's a lot more environmental stipulations a lot more protection for the labor force things that the rest of the people in the other the donald trump and his group wanted to see hap

. >> another issue coming your way, of course, as last panel just discussed the new nafta. democrats are making some noises about some concerns they have in the deal and meanwhile the president over the weekend threatened to essentially pull nafta and force the vote on the new pact? is that a good idea. >> they will have to sell this agreement to the democrats because that's the only way you will get ratified. and democrats traditionally have been skeptical about trade deals. in first majority, the last two years of barack obama had i not signed up with barack on for trade promotion authority it wouldn't have passed because pelosi and harry reid were against it. so my party tends to be more incline to support trade agreements, the administration is going to have to sell this deal to the house of representatives in order to drive it through. >> do you think it's a good idea for the president to just terminate nafta? >> no, not to terminate. i think the new proposal from what i hear is -- is pretty good. the new negotiated proposal at least from kentucky point of view is pret

not a levy it's getting larger this is after trying to browbeat trudeau with tariffs and the new new nafta and i want to shift gears something very important what's going on with the orthodox church in ukraine where all of the so-called conventional all day you will agree and also the church took place in kiev it was presided for some reason by president poroshenko talk to me about separation of i'll show you how to configure. yes a political figure official the real ukrainian author of the church please don't listen to western media when they call with russian orthodox church it's the ukrainian orthodox church a doner most from russia financially you know the boy their own bishops their image reported and sits on the council of russian orthodox church no russian reporters are seated or they are signing up so these official ukrainian orthodox church protested these conventions they did that them all to thirty eight bishops only two were forced to read them even though there were such as by there you're green in security agency you know there was several people were arrested steele they did

this somehow the trumpet ministration is trying to blame china as if it's playing unfair and the new. nafta agreement with canada and mexico says you cannot trade. with a company a country that isn't free market you cannot trade with a country that is a mixed economy that finances its own education for nothing that subsidizes education that subsidizes transport you can only trade with countries that are thatcher arised and reagan and the effect is that no privatized economy can compete with a mixed economy because the role of a mixed economy which is how america got rich is for the government to support infrastructure to support basic needs at a low price to keep the cost of production luckily for enough so again you know these nobel prize winning economist the other phrase i like to throw around is equilibrium and they use mathematical equations and they say say the mathematical equation is it works because x. equals why we can prove that mathematically but the as i say the forest they stick can't see the forest for the trees because the actual all economy works by credit creation kind of

on you make threats you increase in height in the rhetoric and you'll get what you got with the new nafta deal that was signed at the g. twenty to kick off the this summit with canada and mexico again tough talk with good results so i hope that that's what happens i know everybody that has any stake in this economy or the world economy hopes the same thing and if china stop stealing our intellectual property then i think we have a chance of that happening but it's up to i think the ball is really in china's court well china's president is president for life our president merely wishes he was so they're going to play the long game and the timing is painfully coincidental as another trump on the stump promise comes back to haunt him member this. you people know something about the current discus bring it back to the state of the ship thank you we have many car companies coming back and they go into michigan they go into ohio they go to the states where they want to be you look at what's happening with ford in with general motors in michigan and ohio you look at the tremendous number of jobs