occupy wall street will finally get some justice because of course timothy geithner was at the new york fed overseeing the bailouts of all of these banks and helping out all his buddies and then became treasury secretary and got away with all his failure to disclose the i.r.s. all his stuff when he was working at one of those world bank or a map sort of things but it could be that like maybe we're going to get some justice it might be another twenty years or it could be bad news because like maybe this he's he's like a mafia sort of guy like edging out all the competition getting their competition arrested and thrown in prison but according to the daily beast article here timothy geitner who served as treasury secretary during the obama administration is now president of a private equity fund that manages a company that has been accused of predatory lending practices according to the washington post the newspaper reports that mariner finance which is owned and managed by new york firm warburg pincus offers poor americans high interest loans by sending them texts in the mail customers who ca

. >> carmen segarra, are you suggesting is a coziness but the new york fed and goldman sachs and other banks? >> coziness is to general of the term. legal minds will, you know, physically and that word is generous but there is a lot of things going on that should not be going on. misrepresentation, illegal behavior, a lot of were breaking because on that is going unpunished. >> you made a big decision. >> yes. >> what was it? >> i made two big decisions. the first decision came with a result of a trigger event that was potentially to delete information from a report i have compared which is illegal because that would be record tampering. i refused to do it though and i sought legal advice from outside the fed much more experience than i was and they advised me court went on and said we know it's a problem but it's difficult in a big knowledge gap between what is known by the public and what is really going on. it's hard to prove that these things are going on so we suggested if you record it to get more information as to what is going on. i went ahead and decided to record when i was w

i love the guy ron wrote a good article he looked at the yield curve model from the new york fed. it is actually not 10s to 2. it's 10s to three-month treasuries very important and i went and got new york fed publishes the model. the spread is flatter, but it's 100 basis points, or so. it's up 20 or 30 that's very important. it was 10s to the 91-day bill. this is a professor estrada. so from his work, the probably of a u.s. recession predicted by the spread over the next year is only 12.5% through the month of june 12. 5% so i think people are making too much of the 10s to 2s. watch the 10s to 91 days now, every recession has been lead by an inverted curve 10s to the 3-month. you can look it up i think estrada has his website. but the new york fed is publishing i give a hat tip to ron insana we found it on the cnbc website. good for you. >> good for us do you think the steel tariffs -- >> there's no recession in sight. let me make that point no recession in point now. >> we can put more tariffs, let's say german autos. >> look, a lot of discussions are being held with the individua

occupy wall street will finally get some justice because of course timothy geitner was at the new york fed overseeing the bailouts of all of these banks and helping out all his buddies and then became treasury secretary and got away with all his failure to disclose the i.r.s. all his stuff when he was working at one of those world bank or i.m.f. sort of things but it could be that like maybe we're going to get some justice it might be another twenty years or it could be bad news because like maybe this he's he's like a mafia sort of guy like edging out all the competition getting their competition arrested thrown in prison but according to the daily beast article here timothy geithner who served as treasury secretary during the obama administration is now president of a private equity fund that manages a company that has been accused of predatory lending practices according to the washington post the newspaper reports that mariner finance which is owned and managed by new york firm warburg pincus offers poor americans high interest loans by sending them texts in the mail customers who can'

and they never leave new york city by the way you hardly ever see them leave new york city and everything here is so rich and expensive and lovely and all and all the new york fed gives them free money everything is free right everything seems great so what's going on outside of the rest of america member i talked about that first headline the national insecurity state and the united states of inequality the more unequal we become the more in secure and the red and red alerts and yellow alerts and be careful you know see something sometimes you don't but yes i can in no wealth can exacerbate. trends a psychological trends if you're a smiley paranoid as a poor person or a medium income person you can become extremely power. no it is a rich person it's like throwing gasoline on character problems and psychoses in the rosies of wealth just makes it worse so some people adapt to walls quite well many people don't and a wealth of self is not a panacea it doesn't cure stuff for people it can cause as many or more problems then not having wealth i mean that's something that is not well understood but nevertheless in the first article i was talking about there the unit

dollars a month or something like that so here's a guy who was at the front line he was at the new york fed during the time of the occupy wall street he saw occupy wall street therefore would have been only two blocks away he would have seen what their complaints were he would have seen what the issues are so hearing knows that ok they're looking for a universal basic income so are introducing a policy of universal basic debt so here every american is going to have a thousand dollar check from me and they're never going to escape that because no matter what they're not going to go to prison they're going to stay out of prison because they're going to keep on servicing that debt to me and that's that's their life of internal purgatory hell of debt because the always have that debt around their neck and of course you know with all the data collected on facebook and google and twitter and all these companies that sell their information and data analytics to the likes of warburg pincus of course they know exactly when you need that money and they know exactly when you're vulnerable maybe a chil

lot of the film for look at the anti what about most of china for example because i am at the new york. fed up with one leg. and that's been pretty graphic. but. if there's a preferred and. i think you know. the army came out i would have to know that when to put them on friday you know marlon brando we're going to pick up. to get us from him. because of. what i look back up on a couple. of them but the main part of the summer that i'm a boy or a little girl emma. is there was a number of other people in the bookstore you know there was a believe that they are a palace like a woman if you sat down to make a new look at the solo things or does it it just one last it's been unlucky that. they let you know so what about the uniforms like what we. see in england what they were. going to record over a part of the record for their birthday or for her here. at the set also i don't think is going to get into because look. if you're going to record your. grass yes. that's the sort of end of left but i just wonder whether an ordinary citizen caught up in the same situation as we were just now would b

the new york fed did a survey in they were going to increase spending.he estimates for income increases were fairly low. more importantly, regardless of whether or not people estimated an increase in income or steady income, they said they were not going to change their spending. and of course milton friedman would have predicted this outcome because what we've seen up in budget deficit go the level of debt forecast to increase at a faster pace. so people are thinking about that and saying isn't it just going to come back and bite me down the road when i have to pay off this debt? i think the reason we've seen consumption go up is in part because we've had jobs growth, growing at about 1.6%, and wages are finally starting to pick up. real wages are growing just a bit above 2.5%. when you at all that together, it supports a robust consumption picture of nearly 3%. a final word on the dollar, has it been surprising to you that it's been a one-way bet and most people expect that strength to continue? it's also rising from the trade war scenario that was lar

os, he used in dino k to work at the new york fed, so well-placed to give us some insight into what policymakersre thinking at the moment. trade war,about this potential trade tensions and how it weighs on monetary policy. how can the fed way up these uncertainties as a deliberate this month and next month when were expected to see another hike? dino: there isn't much they can do about the trade tensions himself. but they will be interested in doing is to assess the impact it might have on economic growth or inflation. what you are seeing already in the earnings reports of a number of companies, there talking about inflationary pressures, margin compression. the risk is there will be passed through into inflation. that will maintain pressure on the fed to continue along the path they are of gradually increasing -- tightening monetary policy. ramy: when we get the statement out tomorrow, what is the best expectation? something in the statement. dino: i don't think we will get a whole lot in the statement. i think it will be pretty much steady as she goes. it will get the market attention because

continuation of what we saw in new york's fed report saw capital expenditure expectations had been declining and he nodded to that in his testimony today. i think if he was to see continued evidence, philly fed is out this thursday of declines in capital expenditures plans he would start to ratchet back plans. >> one or two? gary, one or two more this year? >> i'm pretty sure there is going to be at least two unless something happens. with the tariffs, they're really small. yes they affect farmers in certain companies and industries. unless we get 200 billion in tariffs, still a couple months away, i'm not so worried about it. if we get to that, there will be heck to pay. economy will slow down and fed will slow down also. >> guys, always a pleasure, thank you so much. david: this could speed up the economy, phase two of tax reform. president trump meeting with members of the house ways and means committee in the house. kristina partsinevelos is live on capitol hill with the latest. before the meeting started the president tried to clean things up on russia. >> he came off the plane. tried t

it would probably get -- new york fed has just said $13.2 billion worth of consumer debt, and that is the field that goldman is choosing to go into and expand. you are trying to hit consumer debt, personal finance, that's the area. does that make sense at this stage of the cycle? mr. blankfein: i don't know how long the cycle lasts and we tend to be good risk managers in this business through all the cycles. we are not going to try to get into and out of businesses that are franchise businesses for a cycle. we are going to acclimate risk and how we land on our protocols and our profile to what we feel the market is. but let me just say, just as a predicate in your question, in a way, we are going into the consumer business, but not so much that we are chasing the consumer business that is so foreign to us. because consumer business is generally fournette to goldman sachs. the opportunity in the consumer space has moved to us. if you are lending to 500 people, the kind of decision-making that you would make in consumer lending is like jimmy stewart in it's a wonderful life. you look in

new york fed has said there is $13.2 trillion worth of consumer debt. yet that is the field that goldman is choosing to expand. you are trying to hit consumer debt, personal finance, that sort of area. does that make sense at this stage of the cycle? lloyd: well, we intend to be in business. i don't know how long this cycle lasts, and we intend to be good risk managers through all cycles. we are not going to get into businesses that are franchise businesss for a cycle. how we land on our protocols and profiles to what we feel the market is. but let me just stay as a predicate, the predicate in your question, is in a way we are going into the consumer business, but not so much that we are chasing a consumer business that is so foreign to us, which consumer business generally is foreign to goldman sachs, an institutional firm. but really what has happened as a result of movement in technology, the opportunity in the consumer space has moved to us. if you are lending to 500 people the kind of decision making you would make in consumer lending, it is like j

. >> we have the underinflation gauge, nig, from the new york fed. highest in the last few years. the magic 2% first time this year for six years in may jim, with all the expected inflation ramping up, why are yields still in the 280s for ten-year notes >> well, for one thing, the u.s. treasury is perhaps the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry in the sovereign debt of the development world where it yields less. with that said, you look at the after inflation yield on offer u.s. treasuries, the ten-year, for example, what you find is nothing is there over 50 years the ten-year delivers a real yield of 2.3%. so you subtract the inflation rate tomorrow the cpis will be at 2.9% what is the ten-year yield 2.8% essentially nothing after inflation, so we may be better than most sovereign yields, but we still are very eager for the numbers. >> doesn't this present jay paul with a real conundrum? he wants to keep tightening for real good reason with all the inflation indicators, but hence flattening what does he do? >> well, i think he motors ahead. jay powell is, perhaps, to his cost, is

you saw it in the empire new york fed report, the outlook for spending is coming down appreciably. this could indeed puts the brakes on the fed continuing with its rate hike campaign. neil: dave, i'm thinking of that, i'm thinking of rhett sy sense on capitol hill on all of this. another thing to get tough with the chinese, another to get tough with europe and another to get tough with canada and mexico. having worked for paul ryan he was among the early ones saying you know, just be careful with this but they're not taking the president on to take away that ability to negotiate this stuff but they are getting worried. what do you make of that? >> there is concern, neil. with tariffs, it starts like a little no ball at the top of the mountain. you start rolling the snowball down the mountain. it may stop to become a snowman, or in more cases unfortunately it becomes a avalanche. nobody knows from the beginning. since the beginning of this year everybody upping anteon everyone else. that concerns congress. if you look at the vote taken in the senate this week, 88-11. it didn't mean a

he went back and looked at the yield curve model from the new york fed. it is not tens to twos.s to three month treasury bills. from his work the probability of the u.s. recession predicted by the spread over the next year is only 12.5% through the month of june. so i think people are making too much of the tens to twos. >> joining us now is author of that specific column that larry mentioned. tell us more. why should we not be worried about the flat year? >> i wouldn't go as far as larry said in suggesting we should not be worried buzz it is suggested that if the trade war were to spin out of control that could flatten the ten year to three month curve and lead us toward a recession. he also said when looking at the yield curve the time is nine to 15 months with the average lead time is a year. so you do have some lead time. right now it is not happening in that particular curve. >> can i explain just for the novice viewer if you are going to lend money for 30 years in theory you will charge somebody a much higher interest rate because there is so much more uncertainty. >> when

apolitical i never once -- i spent five years, two as a governor, three as chief economist with the new york fed i never saw discussions that said because of politics or pressure, we're going to do things different that was not true, by the way, for example, under arthur burns. it is an apolitical organization to do a good job in managing the economy and not be involved in politics and i think that that's not going to -- >> the effect may not be much on chairman powell but the prism through which we view powell's actions will be changed, at least for a while. if, for some reason, the fed decides not to go through with a december or later on this year, not this next expected hike but the next one after that and cites trade, aren't market participants going to say, i remember those comments from president trump who said they did all this work to bolster the economy and there they are, raising interest rates, working against us it's the perception that matters at the end of the day. >> we're always going to wonder. >> exactly, we'll wonder if he was fueled by the president's comments. >> i think th

fed's independence. nothing gives -- gets people losingxious than independence. lisa: that they would be able to audit them? what are you talking about? >> several bills. one would diminish the authority of the new yorky fed president. another bill would allow an extensive audits. it is not an audit of the fed's .ooks it is an audit of the fed policies. several other policies with dilute the power of the fed. with arthur burns and richard nixon, even alan greenspan, you saw pressure on these fed chairman. we saw economic performance not looking good. joe: this is just my opinion. chairman powell does not strike me as hawkish. he seems to have some skepticism of the usefulness of the idea of the unemployment as we know it. be what president trump backfires that it makes people on the fomc more inclined to assert their independence through policymaking? >> absolutely. that is a great point. two scenarios. the fed says we are independent and we are going to raise rates whether we like it or not. the other would be if the fed starts to slow down. tariff war's get worse, the fed gets reluctant to raise rates aggressively. the fed is would say slowing down because it is being pressured by the white house.

fbi agents seized the recording when they raided cohen's office in new york city. the feds are looking to her involvement in paying women to keep quiet about alleged relationships with mr. trump leading up to the election and whether that violated campaign finance laws. cohen admits paying stormy daniels $130,000 in exchange for her silence. daniels claims she had sex with the president a decade before he took office. president trump denies it. laura ingle is live near bedminster, new jersey where president trump is heading to spend a weekend at his golf club. laura? >> hi, rick. sources tell fox news, a payment was discussed but never made between then candidate trump or michael cohen. this is in 2016. the call about this payment, the back and forth, was recorded by michael cohen. he secretly made a tape without his client's knowledge. mr. trump didn't know about it. the call lasted two minutes and stored by cohen in his home, office or apartment. the woman cohen and trump were talking about is karen mcdougal that claimed she had a nearly year-long affair with president tr

meanwhile, first word news from new york. the fed intends to maintain gradual rate hikes based on a strong u.s. economy. that is according to the latest fomc minutes. employment gradually pushing wages higher with inflation remaining nearly 2% target. the minutes note escalated trade risks and of volatility. the trump administration has launched best -- lost another leading figure. scott pruitt, former head of the epa was facing charges of abuse of power. at least 170 democrats and four republicans had called for his resignation. saudi arabia has cut pricing for most of its oil. assureed reduction to customers there is sufficient supply. oil extended losses after him go aramco.r president trump renewed his attack on opec, saying the cartel is keeping oil prices high. saying the president's tweets on oil have backfired. added to the have price of the barrel and it will continue if trump keeps tweeting. more seriously, the u.s. navy says it will protect oil after iran moves to block the street. -- the strait. global news 24 hours a day

fed reserve convenes. diane king hall is at the new york stock exchange with that and more. morning, diane. >> good morning, anne-marie. the fed will be on fed watch as they begin a two-day policy meeting tomorrow. the central bank is not expected to raise interest rates this time but will continue to point toward further gradual rate increases later this year, likely in september and december. the fed has already raised rates twice this year in response to strong economic growth, low unemployment, and the current inflation rate. keep in mind, friday's strong growth domestic number at 4.1% was the fastest in almost four years, but for the week stocks were mixed. both the dow and s&p 500 posted weekly gains, marking the fourth straight week of gains, the strongest week since january while the nasdaq lost ground last week. >>> move over, bitcoin. mcdonald's is creating its own international currency to celebrate the anniversary of the big mac. starting thursday at lunch, customers who buy a big mac will receive a coin. it's good for a free big mac. you can redeem the currency f

the wider news you made in the clip we just showed, if at least one of them involves ami, you're saying this company, which is under significant scrutiny in the cohen case, by the feds in new yorkwas also doing something else allegedly on behalf of donald trump? >> yes. >> could that then raise their exposure for campaign finance violations, or other misleading of the authorities about what they were doing with that money? >> yes. and i think it will do the same for michael cohen. let me tell you what i find most interesting, ari, it's late now on the east coast. we haven't got a single denial from michael cohen, lanny davis or donald trump or rudy giuliani. not a single denial. no one has come out and said, oh, that avenatti guy doesn't know what he's talking about, it never happened. what does that tell you? >> they've said that before, michael. they're on the record saying you don't know what you're talking about. when you look at ami figuring into all this, it is hard to understand why a corporation with its own self-interests in profit interest would get so deeply involved in taking these risks on behalf of another person. can you shed any light on that? >> i think it may

. >> and sort of the context of this is that the feds, the new york southern district, went in, raided michael cohen's office and home and everything else, got all kinds of documents, and it is in that context that the trump people, rudy giuliani on television, are saying we're not worried. so, do they know more than we think that they know, or is there just a big game of chicken going on here? >> we don't know what we don't know, but it seems to me that the public relations campaign has consistently been we have nothing to hide, there's nothing going on here, there's no collusion, so, of course, that's going to be the public message. regardless of what is in the papers from michael cohen's office, regardless what they show or don't show about the president, the public posture has got to be exactly what it is, which is we didn't do anything wrong. >> you don't have to read very far between the lines to see this sort of volleyball of messages, right, back and forth between these two camps. these two camps who were one camp not that long ago. >> it's extraordinary. there's a moment on ai

they don't know what the feds in new york have. they don't know what michael cohen is willing to talk about and how loudly he's willing to sing, so to speak. it has them quite worried. there's a great deal of concern in the orbit and we'll see where it goes. >> all right, my thanks to phil rucker, frank, michael, joyce, eugene and ken. that does it for our hour. i'm nicolle wallace. "mtp daily" starts right now. hi, chuck. >> bearing, bearing, i'm happy. >> you have to have mike pompeo before they got all the great folks here. >> that's all good. that's all good. i'm just happy to be back. >> we missed you. >> i missed you, i missed everybody, so it's good to be back. >> welcome back. >> thank you. if it's wednesday, it's a summer grilling on the hill. >>> good evening, i'm chuck todd here in washington. welcome to "mtp daily." you are looking live at capitol hill where the current secretary of state, mike pompeo, is being grilled from both sides of the aisle basically by the senate foreign relations committee. he is testifying for

they don't know what the feds in new york have. they don't know what michael cohen is willing to talk about and how loudly he's willing to sing, so to speak. it has them quite worried. there's a great deal of concern in the orbit and we'll see where it goes. >> all right, my thanks to phil rucker, frank, michael, joyce, eugene and ken. that does it for our hour. i'm nicolle wallace. "mtp daily" starts right now. hi, chuck. >> bearing, bearing, i'm happy. >> you have to have mike pompeo before they got all the great folks here. >> that's all good. that's all good. i'm just happy to be back. >> we missed you. >> i missed you, i missed everybody, so it's good to be back. >> welcome back. >> thank you. if it's wednesday, it's a summer grilling on the hill.

new york, 102. chicago numbers only coming down because of storms coming through the area, fed by some of the heat and humidity. which will hold for the next several days. tomorrow's numbers will be similar to today. d.c., new york, wilmington, seeing record numbers. 90s through the holiday, for some cities, it will be the longest stretch of heat in nearly ten years. tom? >> rob, thank you. >>> next tonight, authorities investigating a deadly boat explosion. the boat packed with americans in the bahamas when the engine ignited. a frantic race to abandon ship. the boat completely destroyed by the fire. one woman would not survive. and now, authorities are trying to determine the cause. here's erielle reshef. >> reporter: tonight, authorities in the bahamas investigating what caused this popular tour boat to explode, killing one american woman and injuring at least nine others. leaving behind this incinerated floating shell. >> oh, my god! >> reporter: panic and chaos. ten americans and two bahamian crew members on board as the boat mysteriously ignited, sending a plume of thick black smoke into the air

solution for you so my parents checked it out and it looked great the sperm was like fed exed from california to new york a big tank arrived and i was conceived so he wanted them a nutshell that's what i've. basically my parents picked donor cleared from a catalog of different donors that were available and this is all the information i have that he is outstanding intellect with exceptional athletic ability so my parents told me when i was very young that i was born from this they told me when i was maybe one or two years old so it's always been a part of me i've never known any other way of existing. home so for me it's very very normal and it's nothing strange and it's totally who i am and i couldn't even tell you what it feels like because i don't know what it's like to feel a different way. i think that it nature has its way of giving us the perfect baby genes come into play just definitely and i think it's just one ingredient in like many things that make up a human being and how their lives plays out. most of our donors have an i.q. over one thirty. one fifty one seventy two if i recall correctly a

new york. . >>> some breaking news on the tapes that donald trump and his fixer. the fedsave received more than 100 recordings. lots to discuss. good evening. the washington post is saying that the most substantive exchange involving the president is the one leased tuesday. what's the danger for trump in these other tapes? >> the danger here is whether or not those conversations are going to be privileged. just because you speak to a lawyer doesn't mean it's going to have the attorney-client privilege stamp on it. if the nature is not about a legal matter or further isn't trying to get legal advice or legal counsel or trying to get a crime to go forward then it's not going to have the protection. the president is probably wondering houw much is out ther and mouhow much exposure on the non-privileged tapes. >> i want you to take a listen to this new enhanced exchange. it's involving paying ami either in cash or check. >> niei need to open up a compa for the transfer of that info regarding our friend david so that -- i'm going to do that right away. i've spoken to allen abou

david: you represent a state suing the feds on this, new york state.ork state for the past 38 years. we have seen more money they get from taxpayers taxpayers, they get away deducking local on federal, they can't do that anymore, we see more corruption, dirtier streets, frankly, worse public services like the subway. the more money they extract from taxpayers, the worse things get. you saw the corruption scandal blow up in albany. people tied to the governor were convicted of kickbacks from construction companies, that is governor cuomo from new york. the more money they take the worse things get. maybe people will wake up to that now? >> i hope so. obviously we had to make decisions to get tax reform to the finish line to protect 99% of the people we represent. this is what this outcome was. hopefully the state capital will wake up, what is causing a tax problem in new york state and other high-taxed states, excessive spending they have to increase revenue to cover that spending. david: the state government will not wake up, congressman, let's face it

coming up we head to the floor of the new york stock exchange to find out how traders are reacting to the fedd at top of the hour. >>> plus one new jersey company is trying to find a way to stop pesky robocalls. it could end up costing scammers money. doesn't that sound good in details next. adam: american businesses added 177,000 workers in june, according to payroll processor adp. the report says hiring was strongest in the health, leisure and hospitality sectors but small businesses hired workers at a slower pace for the second straight month. >>> long-term mortgage rates falling this week with the average rate on a 30-year mortgage dropping to 4.52%. that is according to freddie mac. rates have declined in five of the last six weeks. >>> breaking right now, stocks are trading higher after the release of the fed minutes showing officials are committed to gradually raising interest rates despite the increasing risk of a trade war. nicole petallides remains live for us at the stock exchange with the latest. it has been up, down, but seems to found a place to be happy in triple digits, nicole

feds. i think there is a good chance that law enforcement in new york city would be interested in taking ah homework into the financial background of their biggest donor? as official enquiries into allegations of cheating by vote leave continue, we offer new insight into how they worked together with the dup in the referendum. as official enquiries into allegations of cheating by vote leave continue, we offer new insight into how they worked together with the dup in the referendum.

new york's central park. the news 4 team has been trackinghis case ever since. as scott macfarlane reports, the fedsclue. >> that's right. the case has been a puze from the start. celebrating the july 4th weekend inew york two yearsago, he was walki through central park and stepped on a rock. boengt tbeneath the rock, a homemade explosive device that destroyed his leg. we've swn youhe lengthy rehab he's undergone and the -- two years, no arrest yet been made. new york city police have released a photof a plastic bag found near the scene of that explosion. why unica is listed on the bag. an old new jersey-based bakery that shut down before the explosion. flyers there show the item and a listed ar$40,000 rfor anybody with information. >> somebody may have a stockpile of them or maybe they were ins someon basement. if you're seen that piece of evidence, it's rlly crucial that to get that lead out to the public. >> conners' father says the family is eager to move on and the person responsible for all of this to there was another possible clue found a few months ago. conner's parents say they found an in

cohen as a potential flip target for the feds, the southern district of new york. can you speak to that possible strategy. >> when you look right now at michael cohen's legal situation he's not been contacted by mueller that we can report at the moment. his path ahead is challenging. his offices and hotel room have been raided. the southern district of new york is looking into his business dealings. now you have this float of information to different sources tonight that he has more information about president trump's activity and contact conduct and a candidate. whether he is looking for a pardon or looking to cooperate with federal investigators. there's a debate inside of cohen's orb about whether he is making smart moves at this moment if he is trying to save himself legally. >> all right counsel man, what would be the legal implications of learning that the president knew in advance about this meeting? >> the crime involved here would be there's a campaign finance law that says you can't accept aid from a foreign government during the campaign. under that law

new york. nows check of the markets that the fed chair testimony has concluded. julie: as you have been talking about, we have seen an uptick in equities since we heard from chairman powell . not a huge one but reopened little change this morning. it is a difference in tone and direction as we heard from the chair. change in somet extent in other assets. if you look at the dollar and the 10 year, the client to its highs of the section. now, we have .4 of 1%. we have now seen buyers come into the market with a basis point move. and alsoge one notable, we are seeing the yield an dollar go in different directions. perhaps different interpretations. look at the bloomberg for the outlook for the number of interest rate increases we will see from the fed, and what is priced into the market. you have expected increases in the yellow and this year in the white. this reset seen all, his commentary, if at because there does appear to be flexibility in his outlook in terms of interest rate increases. finally, back to stocks, is earnings season, and there are important mover

new york , this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is bloomberg daybreak. hour, up in the next randy, former fedr. ♪ now to your bloomberg business flash. the turnaround is starting to take hold at ericsson. north american sales rose 11% for the swedish wireless networks. a key measure approved at a pace thaned been -- analysts expected. 2024.eing 747's december thousand and president last year in office if he wins a second term. a tectonic shift for warren buffett's berkshire hathaway. in the past, brookshire has used its cash pile for more acquisitions. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: we turn now to wall street beat. morgan's magic. morgan stanley wraps earnings for the big bang with a killer quarter. musk's mirror has two faces. ballmer dials it down. the former microsoft the ceo has come along way from his onstage pump up days. the bar is skewed. jason: it is. wait until we show this video. joining us now is lisa. great to be with you. morgan stanley is captured a lot of headlines today. it is coming towards the end or at least towards the back half of earnings. what jumped out?

new york, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, stepping on the fed's independence.sident trump pushing back against higher rates. chairman powell testifying that gradual interest rate hikes will continue for now. and meeting presidential resistance. the dollar rally and the u.s. struggling to find stability. we begin with a big issue, stepping on fed independence. >> ultimately it puts into question what the stature of the fed is, and fomc and their ability to maneuver. >> the federal reserve is not going to react to tweets from the president. they don't need to. >> it is a strong institution, and they have staying power. i don't think it will have a big impact on them. >> it is time to move rates back to normal. i think they will continue on that path. >> if people start to feel the fed is going to kowtow to the president and allow the economy to grow too fast, overheat inflation to go up, interest , rates will rise. bond vigilantes will kick in and rates will rise, which is what the president does not want. or maybe the fed will say to show its independence, it wi

so the idea that both michael cohen is being investigated and part of that -- the feds could be talking or in new york to investigators talking to alan weiselberg is really a new front in how much exposure trump's former business dealings could have. >> shepard: the president has indicated his business dealings were a red line. >> yeah. he does not want any investigation to go beyond the question of whether or not the russian government interfered in our election and/or if they can prove possible collusion. he continues to say there was no collusion. he did tell "the new york times" a year ago this summer that that would be a red line. he doesn't think any of his business dealings if found in what is a broad mandate of the special counsel on their hunt for evidence of collusion or russian interference, that they come across anything that could tie trump to the russia oligarchs on anyone in the invest combination through his past financial dealings. president trump has said that that is not appropriate. that's made people in the congress concerned that if it ventures into that area, he might want to st