and gets approval from the new york fed if you want somebody other than the new york fed approving your transactions every single transaction in the world goes to dollars goes to new york fed doesn't matter where you live who you are what country you are what president of what anything you ever do it goes through the new york fed if you don't want that influence if you want independence if you want to have your own sovereign say then buy as much as you possibly can for the reasons that i walk or to attack the death star you had to hit the missile projectile directly into the heart of the death star that is the new york fed is the death star bitcoin is luke skywalker you're coming in you're russia china here's somebody else you're like under destroy the empire didn't. the point is that he mentions unit of account which is like the 3rd. layer the future of what bitcoin has always been talked about by the likes of us at these sort of conferences 1st you have the store of value then you get the medium of exchange then you get the unit of accounts and the unit of accounts is the global

and gets approval from the new york fed if you want somebody other than the new york fed approving your transactions every single transaction in the world goes to dollars goes to new york fed doesn't matter where you live you are what country you are what president of what anything you ever do it goes through the new york fed if you don't want that influence if you want independence you want to have your own sovereign say then buy as much as you possibly can for the reasons that sherman has articulated it is if you remember star wars luke skywalker to attack the death star he had to hit the missile projectile directly into the heart of the death star that is the new york fed is the death star bitcoin is luke skywalker you're coming in you're russia china here's somebody else you're like under destroy the empire.

coming up, we speak to the new york fed john williams at 10:30 a.m. london time. berg. ♪ ♪ bloombergthis is surveillance. let's get to the bloomberg business flash new york city. viviana: t-mobile and sprint considering concessions to salvage the over $26 billion merger. among the options reportedly being discussed is the potential sale of their so-called presale business. the tieup could hurt u.s. wireless of addition. they have said they get challenge the likes of verizon and at&t. strain ofnder the falling revenue and rising costs. euros biggest telecom carrier slashing the quarterly payout by 40%. sales in the fourth quarter falling slightly from a year ago. the company has to deal with buying new spectrum and paying for the $21 billion birgit assets.rges of liberty this is just two months after xiaomi's push by the poor market conditions. it may sell two non-core businesses. the german carmaker hopes to live the unit by the time of its summer break in august. >> i think it is a perfect combination. on securities in the market but they will always be there so w

that's according to new york fed president john williams.n hays sat down with him in an asus of interview in zurich. >> my point of view is always look at the medium-term. where is the economy going in terms of employment, in terms of inflation? just try to keep monetary policy and a nice balance in terms of our goals. i'm not going to opine whether the markets are right are wrong -- right or wrong. we will have to wait to see if these risks materialize or don't. at the fed we are in the mantra of data dependency. that means to continuously reassess what the data is telling us about the outlook for the economy to see how best we achieve our goals. go a littlet me further on this. when does the damage from a , and war, if it continues even if there starts to be some deal made, the tariffs a stay in place. so when would it become severe that it is time to start looking at a possible rate cut? tariffs asnk of the a negative supply shock. .t has affected the economy it will probably boost inflation by a few tenths. ed affects demand and growth.

new york fed president john u.s. rkets are acting like negative supply shock while boosting inflation. we have an interviewer who spoke with them in zurich. she started with how the markets are reading the fed's reaction to functioning. >> my point of view is look at the medium-term. where's the economy going in terms of employment and inflation and keep dietary policy in a nice balance -- monetary policy in a nice balance place. i will not opine whether the markets are right or wrong, because we will have to wait and see how these risk -- risks materialize. we are in the mantra of data dependency. that means continually reassessing what the data is telling us about the economy. when he to really focus on the medium-term view of how we best achieve our goals. be in next move could either direction, and he will do whatever is appropriate. of a trade --age when does the damage of the -- even iftart to be there is a deal made, the tariffs may stay in place. when would it become severe enough that it is time to look at a

guy: new york fed president john williams speaking exquisitely to kathleen hays -- exclusively to kathleenays. , threek to our guest kumar. thinkready told us, you inflation is not going down -- is not going up, it is going down. more people still believe inflation is going to rise. talk me through the timeline of how this is going to work. why do you think they could be wrong? at some point, inflation has to pick up. >> it may pick up sometime. i do not think the shock that president williams spoke about is at work. you have had the fed talk for the last 10 years of inflation reaching the 2% target. at the end of 2017 before she left office, janet yellen said it was because of mobilephone rate prices. you can think of normal reasons why inflation has not picked up. president --rd the the present chairman, room powell, telus -- jerome powell, telus it was transitory. is it permanently transitory? i do not think it is going to pick up this time. the reason is, you asked me why it is not happening, the u.s. population is aging. we do not consume as much as before. numbers,itative easing 1, 2

the new york fed told bloomberg this week that inflation is a worry.ned asies investors sold the rally triggered by the prime minister's election victory. mumbai.1% down in the nikkei declined after briefly topping 12,000. modi's government faces a slowing economy and a looming job crisis. the u.s. aviation regulator is making progress with its foreign counterparts over how to return boeings max plane to the skies. talks in texas were extended by an hour as officials brief regulators for more than 30 countries. boeing is redesigning a software system implicated into fatal crashes and expects to submit its final proposer soon. global news 24 hours on their and on twitter. this is bloomberg. now time for a market check with sophie in hong kong. how did the u.s. set the stage for the day in asia? >> looks like we are going to get direction with some futures pointing to a mixed session here in asia this friday. it is picking up in chicago. the yen is holding on to gains in the face of continued losses for the dollar this morning. markets wait on drums visi

new york. my watching daybreak australia. let's get the first word news. sees weaknesstal in the u.s. economy despite the administration's mantra of growth. the atlanta fed1.6%. the economy has been expanding largely because of debt. also says the bond market is now extremely exposed. saudi arabia briefly shut its biggest oil pipeline after attack drones targeted to pumping stations. a rebel group in yemen claims responsibility for the attack. the u.s. ambassador to saudi arabia says separate saudi claims of attack on oil tankers should be investigated but need reasonable responses short of war. no one has claimed responsibility for those attacks. iran dismissed the claims as a plot to stoke further interest. says venezuela is falling apart and the government continues to try to silence the opposition. he says there are many ways of resolving the crisis and that he has been in contact with the u.s. military. sources tell us that washington is unlikely to agree to why does request for an executive order protecting venezuela's assets from creditors. japanese investors do seem to be in love with french bonds. in march, they bought $30 , almost as much as th

don't miss our exclusive interview tomorrow with the new york fed president at 5:30 a.m. york time all on "bloomberg surveillance." this is bloomberg. ♪ at comcast, we didn't build the nation's largest gig-speed network just to make businesses run faster. we built it to help them go beyond. because beyond risk... welcome to the neighborhood, guys. there is reward. ♪ ♪ beyond work and life... who else could he be? there is the moment. beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. ♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. romaine: the u.s.-china trade war topping the list of worries for investors as the standoff is excited to create swings in developing nation currencies. the next guest did predict that the president would follow through on his threat of tariffs. we welcome the director of economic policy and a managing partner at vita partners. also joining us, chief emerging markets credit strategist damian . henrietta, you made this call and i am wondering when you look at the market

this week in zurich, the fed -- the new york fed president addressed this issue in an exclusive conversationbloomberg's catherine hayes. >> i do think of the tariffs as a way, it's a negative supply shock. it has a various effect on the economy. it affects inflation. it will boost inflation over the next year. it affects demand and growth in the short run. it also has negative effects on the value chains in our economic system. thinking about that question, we just have to keep assessing, evaluating, what are we learning from the data? also the broader set of developments we're seeing. i don't think there's any threshold or specific point. it is just assessing where we are in inflation in terms of our goals, because we need to get inflation back to 2% and keep it there. at the same time, making sure we can sustain the economic expansion as long as possible. we need to assess and evaluate. inflation --boost again, back of the envelope, we can't be sure -- how much could this boost u.s. inflation this year? >> it's hard to know. based on the research that has happened, they have been looking a

the new york fed told bloomberg this week inflation is a worry. the u.s.t is making progress with its foreign counterparts over how to return boeing 73 max to the skies. by oneks were extended hour as faa officials briefed regulators for more than 30 countries on the steps it will take to recertify the planes. boeing is rit region rising -- redesigning its system and will have it soon. global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and more than 120 countries, i'm ed ludlow, this is bloomberg. kathleen: now it is time for another market check with sophie. sophie: asian stocks are sliding today with yields putting the regional index on track for a third week of losses. the nikkei 225 is up nearly 1% with other losses in sydney and seoul samsung losing more than 1%, weighing on the cost be. kospi.the evidence that growth is slowing. the forecast is for percent. robin to 84. the first in back to back to climb for singapore. i want to kick off with movers in sydney. sliding as much as 3% after they turned in

coming up, what is it ingog to cost you, some new estimates from the new york fed with a twist that'ss, get in here! who's a good boy? it's me. me, me, me. hey guys! you're gonna want to get in on this. i know how to those guys in here. let's pause the internet on their devices. wohhh? huhhhh? [ grumbling ] all: sausages! mmm, mmmm. bon appetite. make time for what matters. pause your wifi with xfinity xfi and see the secret life of pets 2 in theaters. >>> but and then he had a press conference in the rose garden. >> that doctored video of nancy pelosi slowed down to make the house speaker appear intoxicated causing quite a stir on facebook over the weekend re-raising concerns about the spread of misinformation on the social network. facebook defending its decision to keep the video online in an interview saying, quote, we think it's important for people to make their own informed choice for what to believe our next guest calling the internet the latest of facebook's dirty tricks and the end of the platform as we once knew it. joining us know editor at large cnbc contributor kara swis

nomura says we expect most of the impact on gdp growth to come from lower business investment the new york fed says, this is interesting, importers are indupsed to shift to ever more expensive sources of supply as the tariffs rise let me give you a translation of that according to the new york fed, the biggest hit comes from the deadweight loss of consumers and producers shifting out of chinese goods. they may find a cheaper price that's cheaper than the one with the tariffs, but they're unlucky to find a price as cheap as what they were paying before. that is, as debbie harry saying, "one way or another" prices are going up >> while they make the expanded tariffs case which hasn't happened yesterday they have to do that in order for the impact to show up impacts on gdp are not do you think, 0.3 or 0.5. one of the estimates i saw may 0.5 over three years >> no, i've not seen that. >> the worst possible scenario, which we're not even at yet. that's what makes it difficult because you have some stocks in this market which are moving 10, 15, 20% on the impacts and others which are completely shru

the new york fed is saying we tacitly acknowledge the tariffs may boost our inflation.o let hot. the bond market is inching slightly higher in terms of price. in line on the german gdp, that is what we like, germans in line. nejra: from compass group, earnings in the first half adjusted operating profit at 951 million pounds. half adjusted revenue, 12.5 billion pounds. those of the numbers coming through compass. full-year isthe something to take note of. they expect organic growth similar to 2017. they are mindful of the macro uncertainty in europe. it will be interesting to find out what they mean by that when we talk to the ceo of compass group dominic blakemore, more of that is coming up. u.s.quity markets, both and a european equities gained by more than 1% in yesterday's session. bothstocks leading regions. ftse 100, dax futures in the green. little dip in, a sentiment. president trump is turning his attention away from china and back to the fed. what does it have to do with the outlook on stimulus in asia given the data we had out of china this morning? juliette

a new york fed study of course found the tariffs will cost the typical american household $831 a yeara lot of money. and the reason is is because pretty much the which a tariff works is you charge somebody a tariff and they just go hey, 25% do the price of the good. the buyer is the american consume like a tax that tax increase could wipe ou benefits americans see from the president's tax cuts. a new study from the non-partisan congressional research service found those tax cuts have not boosted the economy as much as the president hoped. among findings a small effect on the economy in terms of growth and ordinary workers with very little growth in wage rates. outfront now catherine rampel from the "washington post" and cnn political commentator. an informal adviser to the white house on the tax ruts. catherine, do you think the tariffs could wipe out the benefits of the tax cut if you look at numbers like $831 a year. out you're right there. >> certainly they will weigh on the growth of the economy. we have two studies now not just the new york fed study but a second one as well by a

surprising come as a that according to the new york fed, credit card delinquency rates are rising andhat be because credit card interest rates are also rising. 17% on average. that's the highest they've been in almost 25 years. buye rates started with a law passeds by congrn 2009 which limited a bank's ability to raise credit card rates on current customers. the consequence was many banks started new custome at a higher initial rate. >> when the fed starts to raise, starting at a higher level you will creep uper to we are today. >> the fed started raising rates in 2015 and a total of nine s time far and contributing to the higher rates and all of those were programs that credit card companies offer. >> everybody gets these awards and the banks have to offset that and pay for that by higher interest rates. and then you throw in right now the high rates are causing delinquencies. >> the big winners here, credit card companies and banks issuing the cards. >> credit card lending is their major busins. they're earning good margins today. they are not seeing a big increase in - in their defaul

tom: the new york fed president sees knock on effects.

world has survived with no culture european culture we don't know what it is except what they say new york fed 2 years ago scientific culture if you sent into b.m.w. you have all the symptoms of view already started flying in the universe you have a life that i think led to you have a moment those you have all these walls that i was telling you in a beach we go towards ourselves towards eagle that used to be very productive in the in the history i still want to ask you about the do western set of i.d.'s and liberalism as of today it was. accepted as the only good one to follow an only paradigm in which people should exist because liberalism western liberalism means being tolerant being tolerant to other people but i feel like this tolerance has getting gotten a little out of hand i mean it's like unless you accept everyone else's ideas it's like a dictatorship of intolerance it's almost this tolerance has become the new intolerance and that's the saddle values that we're supposed to follow today and if you do otherwise like the black city years or trumpet or you know i'm not saying it's good o

of international finance in transactions clearing through the new york fed is critical for major oiland other transactions and it is the announced purpose of the supporters of crypto currency to take that power away from us to put us in a position where the most significant say sions we have on iran for example would become.

dollar is the standard unit of international finance and transactions clearing through the new york fed is critical for major oil and other transactions it is the announced purpose of the supporters of crypto currency to take that power away from os to put us in a position where the most significant sanctions we have against iran for example would become irrelevant of course that would restore us to what the founding fathers george washington as he you know left the i think it was in his last inaugural address or when he exited the white house he said basically we should have trade with all nations and war you know in foreign entanglements with none yeah the dollar is an edifice that is getting ready for somebody to scream it. is setting into the controlled demolition phase and we won't be seeing much of that much longer and because it is in the ascent i imagine some point 2019 a major central bank will announce or building a huge position because and then it's going to be the hash wars where nation states are going to be mining for strategic purposes. quintuple surprise goes to 150 und

the president of the new york fed was speaking at a new york fed event earlier today on housing, andand explained this a little bit more in layman's terms. >> we have an economy growing above trend a little bit below our goal, are going to basically be right where we are in terms of interest rates, and i don't see any strong argument today based on what we have seen in the data or other information to argue to move interest rates one way or the other. kathleen: many are looking for a rebound in consumption and growth in the second half of the year, which he thinks will boost inflation eventually, especially with tight labor markets on top of that. he, too, says the temporary drop in inflation down to 1.5%, far away from the fed's 2% target is not going to last. that's with the minutes said as well. basically, what are we getting? a fed that is saying we do not really have much appetite or a worldut, but interest-rate projections jumped right in. look at december of this year, painted as the best, the chances around 70%. we will see who wins this battle, but right now, the fed is pret

you can see the vice president of the federal reserve speaking at the new york fed today.out the fact full employment, the level where we have to worry about inflation because unemployment is too low may be 3.6%. in other words, you don't have to worry about hiking rates because inflation is low and falling. john williams, the number three among this group, said he has changed his views on how low unemployment can go. listen to what he said. >> this is an economy that can operate at 3.6 percent unemployment without creating inflation. that's good. in a's not too surprising, way, what they are saying. unemployment was off the charts during the great recession. .t's now down to 3.6% that could be the full employment level. meanwhile, wages have risen to percent year-over-year. they have not risen nearly as much as unemployment has fallen. key inflation the measures. the target is to percent. is it going up with wages and going up as employment comes down -- unemployment comes down? but no wonder officials like these three powerful ones are saying maybe some of these forces h

earlier, bloomberg talk to the new york fed president john williams in an exclusive conversation. he says tariffs are acting like a negative supply shop. -- negative supply shock. >> the studies have been detailed. .2 on therobably get inflation rate over what has already been announced. further escalation in terms of tariffs, those effects would get larger. you're making the right point. it starts affecting consumer prices. the consumer start seeing it in terms of the prices they are paying at stores. that is definitely a significant effect. let's talk about how this will affect the wider picture. let's bring in stephanie holds holzien tostephanie get a look on what is happening. mr. williams says tariffs may induce inflation. financial markets or the u.s. yield curve point to the fact that the fed is going to cut this year. do you believe the fed is going to cut this year and if so what impact will it have on the dollar? the fed, whether it will cut or not in regards to the implications we now have with the u.s.-china trade negotiation having broken down can be twofold. when we

the new york fed president and now the president of the federal reserve of boston jumps in with the samees not need to do anything on interest rates. >> there is no call for monetary policy to change. my own view is that i do view the inflation as predominantly being temporary. i think labor markets are tight and we are going to get much closer to 2%. if the tariffs go in effect, we will probably get to 2% little more quickly. kathleen: in that part of has prepared remarks today, he is referencing the fact that the fed's key measure inflation is far below 2%. one measure is 1.3%. there is a big gap. will tariffs boost it? he said it is not clear cut. if the tariffs do not last long, it is a temporary one-off thing on inflation but what if they do last? what if they get into pricing? they can have a lasting impact. the whole question of growth, he said the trade war could pivot and in the end, it sounds like he is keeping his fingers crossed on just what happens with a tariff war. >> my some should is the effects are going to be pretty temporary and both sides have an incentive to actuall

abigail: still ahead as we review the week, an exclusive conversation with john williams from the new york fed the tariffs is like a negative supply talk -- shop. the ceo of unicredit explains by -- why european bank consolidation is a challenge. highlights from another world wind week -- whirlwind week >>. this is aing -- >> more demanding environment. abigail: this is bloomberg. ♪ abigail: this is bloomberg best. earnings were in focus for investors this week with chinese tech giants tencent in alibaba among the companies in the spotlight. , alibaba and tencent, appeared to be holding up the site -- despite the trade tensions. there are concerns. what are the key takeaways? >> for the most part, the bottom line for both companies, we are good. there are concerns at tencent. let's look at alibaba first. sales topping estimates. rose to 13.6 billion u.s. dollars, nearly 2% above the estimate. what they have done domestically is overhauled their traditional search to include shopping recommendations based on user preferences. it expects sales in the 2019 fiscal year to jump at least 33%. 2019 w

because according to new data from the new york fed credit card delinquency rates are also rising with people between 18 and 29 being the most impacted all of those who might be reflected in the stock prices of companies like visa, mastercard, and american express all up 25% or more year to date outperforming the broader market. >> thanks rahel. that does it for frch prch >> "closing bell" starts now >>> earnings season back in focus. >> quarterly earnings beats. people are starting to look at these numbers again and saying you know, what we're going back and we're looking at the last quarter, it sure looks good. >> i just think this walmart number is just spectacular >> and ahead we'll get results from nvidia, baidu, and pinterest's first report since going public it's the most important hour of the trading day.

the new york fed reports the latest increase is costing the average american household $831 a year.resident here in the american capitalist economy is picking win skpeners and losers effecting a transfer of wealth to american consumers, the ones who ultimately pay the tariffs, to farmers being hurt by his trade policies. >>> democrats and republicans are urging the president not to bypass congress in a controversial arms deal to saudi arabia. there is growing concern the administration may use a legal window which allows the president to circumvent traditional holds on arms sales imposed by congress. democrat robert menendez, the ranking member on the senate foreign relations committee has pla placed a hold on arms sales fearing they could be used against civilian targets in yemen. >>> more violent storms as the full scope of tornado damage becomes clear in missouri. the national weather service declaring the tornado that hit missouri's capital was an ef 3 packing 160 miles an hour winds. nonessentially state workers in the jefferson city area are being told to stay home today. no o

you spent more than two decades at the new york fed. reaction in the market that we saw today. it seems like we were caught a little bit offguard. but then when he came out and said that the next move might saw the cut, you really market lower toward the end of the session. were we caught off guard a little bit today? >> if people were, they should not have been. way he was telegraphing this language, has been consistent now for weeks. they did not see a move to an -- need to move in either direction. inflation is a bit soft. but on the whole, it is not a bad environment to be in. there is really no movement either way. i think the market got a little bit ahead of itself. it is way too soon to be talking about a cut. the other buzz word i learned today has been transitory. at what point is of inflation to low for too long that it is no longer transitory? >> i'm not sure what transitory means in this context. have a move in energy prices. let's say an increase will have a temporary impact. it moves to the value chain. after a while, it washes out. that shift up his transitory. i

the new york fed president sees on effects from the trade war but john williams says there is no

the new york fed president, john williams, echoed what he told me in an interview last weekend. there is no strong argument to move rates one way or another. again, wait and see. also very important in these minutes of course, they said that many -- obviously not a butrity, more than half -- many of the fed officials see that the easing will be transitory. he said he is awaiting confirmation of that working inflation that weak is temporary. to them to the bloomberg library. we have a chart that will show you where inflation is, and where it should be. 2%. it has not been at or about 2%. this is the core rate coming down to 1.5%. this is the headline rate. it is back up to 1.4. at any rate, long way to go to where they should be. thisf the key takeaways -- yuan inflation is transitory. the fed is not looking to cut rates anytime soon. a lot of things could be going on. thisave got to remember took place before the big escalation. the president of the boston fed risksy one of the biggest to the economy is they could slow growth significantly. he is so optimistic that that will hap

make sure to catch our exclusive interview with new york fed president john williams.hleen hays will talk to him about inflation, the state of the market, and the escalated trade war. that is later on this evening at 7:30 p.m. in sydney, 5:30 p.m. in hong kong and only on bloomberg television. shery: you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak. bloomberg subscribers can go to tv on your terminal. you can also customize your settings so you only get the news from the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: this is bloomberg technology global link. i'm paul allen in sydney alongside shery ahn in new york and emily chang in san francisco. let's take a look at the top global tech stories of the day. emily: here's what we are watching. apple slumped as the supreme court gave users the green light to press ahead with a lawsuit to artificially inflate prices at the app store. it could add pressure on apple to cut the 30% commission it charges on app sales. the app store is not a monopoly, according to apple

matter because the dollar is so powerful, if all international transactions have to go through the new york fedause the americans have sanctions but that the leading people in europe and china and russia to say should we have an alternative to the dollar? >> no, i think there is a lot of coal l collateral damage in this part. not just the iran nuclear agreement, a series, part of it is deepening the fisher between us and our closest european allies to include putin's work for him. a third factor is what you said, fareed, over time, this won't happen overnight, eroding the utility of sanctions as an instrument of american diplomacy. it sometimes a very effective tool. we'll wake up a few years from now and find russians and chinese and european allies have taken steps to reduce their vulnerability of the american financial system. >> paula, last word on this? >> well, as we know, the deal before had it significant flaws. ballistic missile deployment, that area was not addressed and then no less, the kind of aggressive behavior that the iranians have pursued through proxies. these kinds of things

this is the new york fed indicator using the spread between the 10 year and three toths u.s.ator has been increasing. tom: let's go to a discussion on the farmland of america with a gentleman from the first district in kansas. this is westra -- western kansas. supporting.re still it is dire times back home. bankruptcies and suicides are up, but we have hope this president can take us to victory. tom: right after dr. marshall, thrilled to be with us. we heard from the gentleman farmer of fifth avenue, the president of the united states. let's gaze on a tweet of agricultural economics. i feel like we are in college .tation, texas doing economics our great patriot farmers will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of what is happening now. the honorchina do us of continuing to buy our great farm product, the best, but if not your country will be making up the difference based on a very high china buy. this money will result from the massive tariffs paid to the united states for allowing china and others to do business with us. the farmers have been "forgotten" for many years. chri

but, so, let me just talk about this dead weight loss idea and this is from the new york fed's paper. $125, and you look for another source for that product, you're going to end up somewhere below $125 but still above $100, right? and by the way, the down side of the importer going to or the producer going to another country is we don't get the tariff revenue from that. >> right. >> so, if they go to vietnam and they're going to $124, $120, whatever it is, it's still 20 bucks more expensive -- >> but it doesn't go into the u.s. coffers. >> doesn't go into the u.s. coffers. and the producer spent the time and the energy to find this other source, and that's part of the dead weight loss. >> steve, we talked about this the other day on "halftime." is it inflationary or deflationary >> yes >> to both. >> okay, here's the way -- and we have an imminent economist who's going to answer this just a second, but i'll tell you quickly -- inflationary on the front end because prices go up, and that's just a fact potentially deflationary on the back end as a result of reduced economic growth, so t

two studies by topnotch groups of economists, princeton, yale, columbia, new york fed, they have all that 100% of the tariffs imposed thus far not only on china but on all of the countries that we've waged trade wars with so far have been paid by americans. that those costs are being passed along to americans, that they are suffering the brunt or not only the brunt all of the pain here, not only because, of course, we're raising the costs of the things that american producers buy and use to make their own goods but of course their own stuff is being taxed when it gets sent abroad, soybean farmers are the quintessential example. >> we'll have one later on. i've got to ask, and this is what our white house team is reporting, for you, michael, the president has come to view all of his moves through the lens of his reelection. he's worried about biden, reportedly questioning the advice of his aides. what is the state of trump right now? >> oh, i think he's desperate. this is a man who's failing on many front seat. he's got the economy going well for him but he steps on his message every

according to the new york fed, the same report, the average american household was hit $414 because of tariffs. it's a lot of money. but by the same token, if you listen to the headlines, you thought it was more than that, more hurtful for the economy. >> let's talk about the supply chains again. you have to ask yourself if you're running a company, do i want to depend on a communist china waging war ago us? the consumer can pay for it now or pay for it later. >> one of the biggest issues facing the consumer today is rising inflation and things that they spend money on. education, prices have gone up. acid inflation has had vis a vis housing. that is the biggest concern on the american consumer's mind. the acid inflation around housing as well as education and not -- >> so painful but you think we'll make it through it? >> i think we will. if you think about the markets, if you don't get a trade war come june, if the markets sell off, anymore the camp that i don't think you'll have a trade war much longer. even if you have a trade war, supply chains will catch up and companies will mak