and you guys at the new york fed have this thing called the new york fed recession that essentially uses that inversion or that spread and calculates a probability which i looked at this morning you now have a 30% increase -- >> actually, the new york fed economists back in the day -- back in the '80s on yield growth and recession. it's one of the factors i and many people look at. clearly, it's a strong statement in the markets they think there is a perception that rates are going to be lower in the future. obviously the risk of outlook. i do take that seriously what are the markets telling us about where the economy is likely going where the risk distribution is i don't take the inverted yield curve. i don't go to oracle and ask us -- tell me the answer there are some special factors the fed's down still i think it is like other market indicators that are telling us there are heightened concerned about the outlook. something to take into account when i think about not only the baseline view of where the economy is but where the risks are. >> heightened uncertainty about how this econom

as brad sherman a congressman from los angeles points out is that the all trade settles to the new york fed and that is important it doesn't matter what currency it is the fact that it settles for new york fed is where our control comes from so the china has a long way to go to have a trusted settlement system and perhaps gold will provide more trusted right now as i mentioned in an earlier show you know we've seen this before in the eighty's with the rise of japan and the u.s. had a response there. rejiggered the global currency markets at the plaza accord this was riggin robert rubin the same people that gave us the plunge protection team after the crash of 1970 so china doesn't seem to be wanting to play that game though so they're going to have to come up with some other strategy and at the moment none appear on the fora isn't something is got to give either the u.s. accept 2nd class citizens in the global economy or they make some kind of dramatic move the u.s. could seize all the gold that they are holding on behalf of many nations and be the 1st to declare reste restoration of the go

brad sherman the congressman from los angeles points out is that the all trade settles to the new york fed and that is important it doesn't matter what currency it is the fact that it settles for new york fed is where our control comes from so that china has a long way to go to have a trusted settlement system and perhaps gold will provide more trusted right now as i mentioned in an earlier show you know we've seen this before in the eighty's with the rise of japan and the us had a response they rejiggered the global currency markets at the plaza accord this was reagan in robert rubin the same people that gave us the plunge protection team after the crash of 1970 so china doesn't seem to be wanting to play that game though so they're going to have to come up with some other strategy and at the moment none appear on the fora isn't something is got to give either the u.s. accept 2nd class citizens in the global economy or they make some kind of dramatic move the u.s. could seize all the gold that they're holding on behalf of many nations and be the 1st to declare reste restoration of the gol

about what the fed is going to do than anybody in this building happens to be sitting at the table new york fed now cast, q2 gdp is tracking at 1.1% >> right >> okay. that's not good. >> no. >> you talked to a lot of fed people this week >> yeah. >> there were many fed speakers on the docket this week. >> right >> is the market ahead of itself are we going to get a rate cut next month >> i think it is >> in what sense >> let's say before the jobs report, i was running a marathon against one of those, like, stellar nigerian guys in the marathon let's say that was happening he would be in central park and i would be warming up in brooklyn >> you'd still be in the early part >> i'd be out of breath already. but now, i think the fed is maybe more in queens, about to come over the bridge i still -- which is to say i still think the market is ahead of the fed but not as much as it was. >> in the number of times that the market expects or as soon as it expects >> give me a second, here. i want to go through two screens. could you put that one back up the expectations there you go >> the percentages ar

new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. let's get back to fedhe central bank tries to respond to global trade tensions. michael mckee is at the chicago fed conference and with the former official of the fed board of governors and the new york fed board. looking forward to this interview. michael: we are with a man who knows more about this than anybody. brian is that of global economics for db shop but used to be the director of the monetary -- ran the open market desk for the new york fed. you understand the mechanics of all of this. you have a new paper out that you just published this week suggesting a lot has changed in the way the fed has to look at things. it has got more challenging in the markets have not adjusted to that yet. >> that's right. the paper, which we wrote for our clients and is on the website now focuses on the lower bound on interest rates, which is what the conference today is about. the likelihood of reaching the lower bound is a lot higher than the markets have priced. markets have an adjustment period ahead of them to

we have the financial engineers around new york city if they get the free money from the fed on the west coast we have san francisco and hollywood los angeles and those are protected by the state department and internet intellectual property that are forced on most of those trade deals like t p p n t t i p that obama and hillary clinton had to go she added and which the people didn't want so those are the only places you can go to get a job in america but we have erected in the same places very strict affordable housing they don't they refuse to build any affordable housing so is that you have to go there to get a job you have to be in san francisco los angeles or new york city those are the only places with new jobs coming online and maybe ought. so the chicago but you have to go there or else you don't have anything so here we have a situation where only those protected industries that these are the gate keepers this is this is you have to get past the moat you have to get into there and get a job but we have a situation where there are no houses for any of these people going there for

new york fed president says he knows what markets are pricing in for the fed but he declined to endorse it. it the bottom line is that the constantly we're by shocks and the question is, assessing the magnitude of these shocks ie critical andust don't really know at this point if it's required to have deep cutt and rates te market is pricing at the moment. >> there's some risk that if fed doesn't deliver but another round of tariffs or even tariff threats from the trump administration would likely o force the fedut rates in response. for "nightly business report," i'm stooeve liesman. >>> and from interest rate cuts to raising the capital gains tax, just last week,re billion hedge fund manager stanley druckenmiller said he would not have a problem with a hirer capil gains rate but what about individual investors? joining us with his assessment, ben phillips' founder and chief nvestment officer of event shares. thanks for joining us tonight. you know, among proponents, one of the arguments in favor of raising the cap gains tax is that many wage earners already pay a higher tax tn capital

the lowest level in the new york fed index, fed manufacturing index since october 2016 that was when corporations were gripped by a whole different type of uncertainty. tariffs were on the hoe rrizon. they were a twinkle in someone's eye. we were worried about the election and the outcome the result is the same it's very likely that corporate capex peaked in the third quarter of 2018. nothing has come out to refute that i don't think the president helped the cause by putting the guy in that position what do you do >> i was discussing with stephanie earlier, i think you have to trim the industrials because they will mix the numbers. everything else is okay. this is a walmart market it's a pepsico market. coca-col coca-cola. >> what do you make of the xhp >> i had quicken last week >> those two things happening at once manufacturing plunging and housing making highs >> quicken number one. they had the best couple of weeks ever ever >> it's going to atraktract fir. interest levels. >> i feel like if you have something that's of value, the consumer will buy it >> how about if it has tari

president of the new york fed saying what is still the fed consensus.he economy still looks solid, but they are aware of rising global risk. all the more focus on the u.s. jobs report tomorrow. that has to be another topic that will be discussed at these bilateral talks in the general meetings and certainly in the guests i will be interviewing the next few days. paul: global economics and policy editor kathleen hays. we'll have an exclusive interview with the people's bank of china governor. atting with steven mnuchin the g20. this is his first international interview since becoming governor. you do not want to miss that one. shery: joining us now is wells fargo security makes income strategist. thank you for coming in. let's get started with treasuries. we are seeing yields under pressure of gopal i can make out look -- of global economic outlook. could we see technical factors boosting yields? >> we think in the near term, yields have fallen magnificently and there are some very specific technical factors, including overall trends from foreign investo

i think that goes to show you how the trade war concern is spreading and the new york fed puts out an empire state manufacturing index. it had its largest one-month drop since they had been putting it together. again, uncertainty. in rest or uncertainty, trade war uncertainty. all this showing up in this data. at the end, most people are saying it is way too early. cut the rate.to in terms of signaling a rate cut, it will couch it in terms of being data dependent. jay powell has a lot of questions on the press conference. many said officials have signaled that it is a big, red flag and that is another thing they will have to answer to. tim exactly ask that question. what that of data, if they are data dependent, would point to the federal reserve and say we got to cut rates and soon. tim: i am not sure there is one data point that would tip them. i think it would be an obligation of evidence. paul: you see quite a robust -- rishaad: you see quite a robust thing. tim: the survey had a record decline in the last month, albeit that was probably reflective of concerns over mexican paris,

new york time, fed onir jay powell speaks fed policy. we will bring that to you live. all of that to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's catch up on the bloomberg first word news with courtney donohoe. courtney: it is the latest huge merger and a -- huge merger in an industry being shaped by deals. allerganreeing to buy in a deal valued at $63 billion. the deal is expected to close early next year. the u.s. downplaying expectations for this week's meeting between president trump and china's xi jinping. they insist to the at administration is not willing to compromise on demands for meaningful tiny economic reforms -- meaningful chinese economic reforms. bloomberg has learned that china may blacklist fedex, a move certain to escalate tensions with the u.s. fedex got on beijing's bad side after huawei said documents it asked to be shipped from japan to china were instead diverted to the u.s. the trump administration has imposed a number of res

julia boorstin >>> new york fed president john williams wrapping up q and a with our own steve liesmanteve joining us now with the highlights, hi, steve. >> reporter: hi, melissa i got a chance to sit down with john williams and i asked him about the message of the market and whether or not he hears the message of the market at about the call for rate cuts and the concern about the economy. let's listen to what he said and whether or not he's really embracing the market or just saying he hears it here's what he said. >> so some were concerned about, especially around the trade issues and some of the broader geopolitical issues and how that spills into the global economic outlook. you can see that mood out there and i think translates into people's concerns or worries about the economic outlook which then affects their views on policy. doesn't mean i have to agree or disagree, but just a perspective. i can understand given the concerns i hear people have about, you know, the risks of uncertainties around the outlook. >> reporter: so kind of like keeping an arm's length from that sensibi

. >> reporter: the new york fed did a story and found the average u.s. household paid $419 more last year for chinese goods. >> stopping tariffs on imported goods that would be a good start and perhaps pulling out some diplomatic chops instead of threatening people. >> reporter: tom vacar ktvu fox 2 news. >>> there was a close call between a u.s. navy guided missile cruiser and a russian destroyer. both of sea vessels coming within feet of each other and other countries are blaming each other for the incident. the u.s. calling russia "unprofessional." ray bogan picks up the coverage from here in washington. >> reporter: according to the navy helicopter was preparing to land on uss chancellorsville and the philippines say. that is when the russian warship accelerated and force the american guided missile cruiser to move to avoid a crash. >> will have military to military conversations with the russians. >> reporter: this video shows the russian destroyer coming within 50 to 100 feet of uss chancellorsville. the fleet describing the incident in a statement

charles: todd, you mentioned the fact is that if you listen to john williams from the new york fed he the low interest rates are going to be with us for a very long time like indefinitely. the fed essentially will be a friend for a long, long time. that put something of a bottom in the market? >> it puts in, we can call it, the powell put but that will change. we watched the fed feel for 106 years at every key decision point and make all the problems they want it at some point they will make a critical decision i will bet they make it wrong when it comes to that point and that will be the turning point. charles: aaron, we know china lingering out there and looks at the street has got more comfortable there will be a quick resolution and may be incremental steps in the right direction could be enough but what is next? to wait around for the next earnings season because we have the job support and it was a dud so what is the market waiting for next? >> one, i'm waiting for more economic indicators to see if we will have this fed cuts or it could hold it flat and hold it stable for the n

. >> all true, but remember, even the new york fed is still positive at 1.4% for the current quarter,r as well. we haven't dipped below 1% yet. i think the fed will hang on a little bit. for the market, i think there's another story. charles: i think jay powell, i listened to him closely, i read his stuff, i think that he does not want a recession on his watch. i don't think he wants to play catch-up. if you think about the last -- >> i agree. charles: -- six rate cutting cycles, all of them started with 50 basis points. there was one time they started with 100 basis points. the fed has always been on the curve. i don't think powell wants to be embarrassed. >> it's been a dr. jekyll/mr. hyde type of fed. december 18th, 19th, raising rates. charles: yesterday he admitted they were wrong on may 1st. he's losing credibility every time he opens his mouth. >> because he's using the dot plot thing from 1965 that there's too much money taking too few goods and all the disruptors keep prices down. i see why the president is frustrated. every time the economy grows a little, here's powell with

from the white house or the department of the treasury communicated with the fed board or the new york fed deutsche bank including instructions related to the release of documents to congress or to law enforcement. if so, please describe any such contacts. what is the likelihood of you being able to get real answers from the fed on this. >> look, the banking committee oversees the fed. they're in front of the committee often. i'm joined on there letter by the senior democrat, sherrod brown as well as others. we're going to be pushing this very hard and at every opportunity, lawrence. i wrote a letter backing in 2017 right at the beginning of this administration asking the federal reserve for assurances that it would continue to act independently and do its job specifically with respect to oversight of deutsche bank. i also asked now chairman powell the same quell during his confirmation hearing before the senate banking competitive, would he uphold the independence of the fed and make sure they monitored deutsche bank. they assured me they would do their test. this is a real test whether t

heather, here is my theory, it was hammered home even more by new york fed president john williams, theure it never goes back into recession. even if it gets a little bit slow, we'll nudge it along. i think they will do that. i really think so. am i crazy? >> no, you're not crazy at all. the fed is hinting not that they won't raise rates for eternity but at least in the short run they will be accommodative. fed chair powell this week said he will listen to the markets and impact of the trade tariffs on the economy, saying that he will do everything he can to sustain the recovery. but, you know, i can't even believe we're talking about the fed again. we haven't talked about the fed for many months. look the markets love it, if you're an investor, if you're long, i know you are, then this is good day for you. charles: rob, yesterday, when john williams was asked about the inverted yield curve, it is not an oracle. when asked about loan inflation. not pressing problem. asked about low neutral rates. he said they're here to stay. they are talking about rates being extraordinarily low for as

follow really where we're going on the leading economic indicator, business confidence, look at the new york fed yesterday which was lowest since october 2016, and it is closely correlated with the ism. so these are things that the fed would probably be saying, hey, this is a reason to move maybe tomorrow they're not going to move tomorrow, but i'm just telling you if they're waiting until july and possibly even september, that's a fed that the market doesn't like. so i would echo what's been said already, that markets have priced in the fed at this point. i think it is a little bit of a concern to think that the fed can give you more ammunition tomorrow, even though they do need to begin to kind of restate where they're going to be in july. >> it is going so far now there's a case being floated around there could be a 50-basis point cut in the offing and the last two easing cycles in '01 and '07 started with a 50-basis cut. why not this time around >> why not just go for it? i mean i don't know, if we don't get anything tomorrow i don't think that -- i think the market may be okay with that wai

the new york fed found that adds up to an average of $120,000. the rising cost of tuition and student debt, the new research found that a college degree is still a good investment with an average rate of return of 14%. so remember to think long term and see the big picture. >>> the cost of college is up front, the benefits are spread out over many, many years that come much later. so the economic value of a college degree is often very hard to see especially for a young person. >> interesting. thanks, michael. >> sure. >> all right. well, amazon has switched gears after that college cheating scandal. the company dumped lori loughlin's daughter after the scandal came to light. they have now made a deal with reese witherspoon's ava for the home collection. she posted this picture on her instagram account. she's a student at u.c. berkeley where she will be a sophomore in the fall. >> well, the search for missing rooster, but this is not just any rooster. it's colorful and more than 7 feet tall. the chicken caper coming up. >> the fbi looks into a loc

that risks are mounting according to new york's fed president. he says he understands the market's concerns short of endorsing a rate cut. he echoed remarks from the chairman and vice chairman earlier in the week >> we are getting mixed signals from indicators, whether financial markets, the actual u.s. data were consumer spending looks pretty good. business investment is weakening, we are seeing mixed signals around china and europe and what is important for us from this is to keep an open mind and keep being data dependent in how uss this data. draghi hardened his language as he said the central bank won't shy from action. policymakers are "determined to act if needed" and that a prolonged period of uncertainty. he added the prospect of interest rates cuts. cks onestigation into atta oil tankers in the middle east concluded a state actor was to blame. found a high degree of sophistication behind the incidents. attacksrt says the required intelligence capabilities to select the specific targets. the u.k. labour party has successfully defended th

and the new york fed chairman spoke yesterday really talked about the difference in demographics the act on manufacturing and other areas is tartificial intelligence robotics driving productivity good. but the productivity growth that we're seeing is not going to be sustainable unless we have talent to meet that dplabd there, is to i really think companies need to think differently, bob was talking about it before. training, apprenticeships what with an key do to make sure we have the skilled talent otherwise, it is going to impact our economy. maria: i think you make a really important point you are hitting on something about productivity, because productivity leads to growth, we are only getting more productive, with what is happening in terms of technology, a.i. productivity numbers only going mooir, you make a good point in terms of of the talents we need more jobs from productivity level for long-term growth all really good things. >> we are seeing lot of change in manufacturing you are going to 3-d printing we're seeing a lot of improvement maria getting rid of some of the lower

coming up over the next week, a ton of fed speak, including the man himself, fed chair jay powell speaking in new yorkng with fed presidents john williams, raphael bostic, and jim bullard. on wednesday, u.s. durable goods and consumer confidence data in germany and france. on thursday, the fed releasing the results of part two of its bank stress tests. plus, cpr results out of spain and germany, and finally, friday, the main event, drumroll -- the g20 kicking off in osaka, japan. still others for some final thoughts are greg peters, andy chorlton, krishna memani. let's start with you, greg. final thoughts on the market and where you see this going? greg: it's a really treacherous and difficult market to navigate, to be honest with you. there is lots of crosscurrents, lots of things that we don't really have a good handle on, i.e. politics, g20. how that's going to play out. so i think it is going to be choppy, volatile, and it is really dependent upon exogenous factors. jonathan: andy? andy: given the year people have had in fixed income so far, do no harm for the next few months and let things play o

new tltro program. we also get u.s. jobless claims and will hear from dallas fed president robert kaplan and new york fed president johnind out was is going on outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first word news. viviana: today, president donald trump and french president emmanuel macron paid tribute to landed inrs that normandy in june 6, 1944. pres. trump: we are gathered here on freedoms altar. on these shores and bluffs 75 years ago, men shared their blood and thousands sacrifice their lives. viviana: about 160 world war ii veterans were there, members of the greatest generation, the president telling them "your die." will never one more sign how the trade war with the u.s. has hurt china's economy, beijing unveiling a stimulus program to help increase demand for cars and electronics. there won't be any new spending from the central government, but local governments are encouraged to provide support. new restrictions on car purchases will be banned. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viv

two factors should come out why forecast for the second quarter more than 1 1/2 have a% fed 1.9 new york fedis what we're working with, the question is in my view, will a shift in fed policy be sufficient to arrest and reverse this slowdown in activity, i guess my feeling is think of waited too long, we talked about this basically all of last year, i was sitting here, talking about how q2 was going on in become everyone so focused on fiscal stimulus boost from tax triple digits no one was paying attention to what fed was doing in the background i was so concerned that when we got to january 1, the tax cut lift started to fade people would realize hey, you know, what is the fed doing all this time, now wall street come to this headed smacking epiphany my dposh look they are taking liquidity out of the banking such rates going up we are seeing slowdown in the economy as if great shock. dagen: what did you say in december, that the federal reserve will cut historically cut ratings exactly six months after last tightening they are about on course what is fed doing right now in terms of reduction

fed decision. here inubramanian is new york. today, she is joining us from hong kong. k you for joining us today. i terms of fed expectations, want to jump into the bloomberg and show you this chart we have here. it shows the fed policy rates getting close to zero again. the lowest compared with any expansion since the 1950's. i guess the question is, is the fed starting to run out of ammo if things turn south again? savita: indeed. i think the real question here is, is a fed rate cut a good signal for the market or is it actually a signal that things are not as good as we thought they were? here's the thing, i think the fed, we think the fed is not likely to cut rates in june. we think it is pushed out. there is a low probability of a cut this coming wednesday. what i do think may happen is the fed may start to talk more about being patient which could potentially roil the market. i think they will walk out that next cut date a little bit more. i do think the fed is more likely to cut rates than hike. we have -- i think our economists are cut -- calling for two fed rat

the new york fed president says the outlook for the u.s.t knowledge that risks are rising and that there are expectations that rates will comes down -- come down. he reinforced the openness and flexibility that jerome powell signaled this week. era, the pre-2000 inflation was a major concern for the public. i will always be vigilant about inflation that gets too high, it's inflation that is too low that is the more pressing problem today. jessica: the euro outperformed most major peers after the ecb expressed optimism in the economy and said it would access necessary to growth. the extended the pledge to keep interest rates at record lows while exploring how to offer banks more cheap cash. the euro touched its highest level against the dollar since mid-april on his comment. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: thank you. president trump says he will decide on his next china tariff plan after meeting the chinese president at t

some of the manufacturing and hard data we are getting that is showing a little bit weaker, the new york fedindex yesterday bumped a reading in june, falling to its lowest since 2016. all of the manufacturing surveys have been flipping as well. the ism manufacturing in the morgan stanley business conditions index all dropping in june as well. david: thanks so much to taylor riggs and michael mckee. allianz is with us. the fed's data-dependent. which data? neil: wages are still growing relatively healthily, so i think they are under no pressure to cut rates at all. save whatu have to they have until you see the whites of the slowdown. david: let's say they basically don't change their position at all. no signal of cuts. how will markets react to that? neil: i would expect to see the rates market in particular may take one on the chin and have to recalibrate. i think most people i speak to you are expecting july rather than tomorrow anyway, so people would have to focus on that. but what will change in the next couple of months, if you are the fed and you cut now and we get a trade deal, you a

he was speaking at the economic club of new york last night. it comes after the fedarted to look like the mortgage industry ahead of the subprime crisis. investors are looking for any parallels between now and what we saw in 2008. we have got breaking news on the italian economy on pmi. got dani burger combing through the details for us. dani: a mixed bag here. when it comes to services they have come in at 50, falling from 50.4. that is beating what most economists saw. composite pmi is also beating the survey, coming in at 49.9. that is a beat, but still below 50 so that is a contraction. we can look at where levels were before. about 50,ill fall to right where the line is. they are coming down to this level, so just a slight drop. i will give you a quick check on btp's spreads. , weds are moving higher have seen this for most of the day. and whether this is good enough to impact the spread is what will be watched. ae spread has widened just touch, but this mixed picture is not enough to avoid the spread going back to 2.9, where it was at the start of the populist

super poligrip. >> bill: chilling new terror plot targeting time square in new york city. the fedshey consider a lone wolff suspect with alleged plans for an attack using hand grenades. jackie heinrich is down the street. >> that man was under surveillance for some time and facing federal charges for allegedly planning to throw grenades at people in time square and reportedly talked about wanting to use a suicide vest to attack politicians in both new york and d.c. so far his name has not been released. he was arrested overnight after a joint investigation by the f.b.i. and nypd. so far police have provided very few details how they discovered his plans but local news station rest reporting he was arrested after trying to buy guns without serial numbers yesterday. also reporting that federal authorities think he was acting alone and was not part of a larger plot. time square has been a target for terror threats for a number of years. in 2010 a crude car bomb was found. thousands of people were evacuated after a handbag vendor alerted police. it did not fully explode and a man was a

similarly, the most important indicator that the new york fed also uses in its recession model is thetalking about this appropriately for a long time. but the three-month bill yield compared to the ten-year treasury yield has every bit the look of a recession coming within 12 months and maybe within six months, because that rate is inverted. what would really kind of put the icing on the cake for that would actually be the fed easing, ironically. lot of people think if the fed eases it will be an insurance policy against recession, but if past patterns are prologue, if we actually start steepening out the yield curve from an inversion, three months to ten years, that's actually a highly coincidental with the coming recession. so there's a number of things that are deteriorating. also, economic data, citibank has an index that compares current data releases to their 12 month moving average and all over the world, those are steeply in negative territory and have been all year and in the euro zone, even for the last full year, not just year to date. so there's plenty of indicators the re

last friday, the new york fed similar, forecast 1 1/2% gdp growth.are showing numbers that are at or slightly below trend, it doesn't seem sufficient to warrant three rate cuts the next six fed meetings. it suggests that market participants are rendered vulnerable to a federal reserve cuts rates, not as many as three times. neil: i wonder if we get a china trade deal, part of this big rally, a big chunk is built on optimism of a trade deal, given the fact the president spoken to the chinese counterpart, seems to lay the groundwork for something in japan at the osaka summit, the g 20 summit. wouldn't that take a need for a rate cut off the table if they decided to score a deal at their table? >> neil, i completely agree. i think the fed thought if the economy need ad rate cut now, it would cut now, it wouldn't wait to satisfy the market as anticipation of one in july. neil: right. >> secondly i think more likely than not, the fed will at least wait through the g20 meeting, as you just mentioned. if a deal is struck or at least some agreement around a

we had the new york fed coming out and saying average wages an increase between last november and this starting to 66,000, mostly for people who don't have college educations. this is a tremendous economic boom for the working class. in fact, it's now harder to find a blue collar worker than it is to find a white collar worker that hasn't been true in decades. neil: know what i think has happened with this? math is a funny thing to play with. i was hearing one commentator saying it's undeniable the rich have gotten a disproportionate benefit from the tax cut and what's left out in that argument is if you give someone who is over 100,000 a 1% cut, obviously it's a greater aggregate amount than someone offered the same percentage cut on lower rung. but even allowing for that, i mean, the fact of the matter is everyone got the cut. everyone got something. and i'm wondering if we would have been seeing the low unemployment levels among all key demographics and again, your opinion of the president, leave that out of it, just look at the data. something prompted that data. something did that

data we got last week which showed a contraction in manufacturing in the mid-atlantic and new york regions. philly fed was just about flat but the empire index in new york, contraction. so conflicting numbers here, some good, some not so bad. so much so that even dallas federal reserve president, federal bank president robert kaplan said we need more data guideposts before the fed makes a call on rate cuts. here's what he told maria. >> our next meeting is not until july 30th, end of july. we've got at least a month. i want to, given the deterioration in the outlook has been very recent in the last four to eight weeks, i want to take the next three or four weeks, see what happens with trade, i want to look at the next jobs report. liz: while he's not a voting member, it is important to wonder with this widely watched fed meeting a month away, so it starts of course july 30th, do we have the full picture of whether we will get a rate cut? on the screen, we put together the sort of wheel of fortune type picture, guys. i want to bring in our floor show traders. tim anderson, will we eventually get the e,

we had a report from the new york fed on manufacturing activity in their particular district, employment, that employment index was down for the first time in a couple of years. we have base metals prices plunging. we have the price of crude oil just above $50 per barrel. all of these indicate a slow-down in u.s. activity as well as global activity. neil: this trade back and forth, i know you're not a political guy, good thing, you know what you're talking apout, do you think that is weighing on the president's poll numbers especially battle brown state? the economy is doing well but this stuff is still an open question. >> you know those midwesterners say okay to talk tough, be a bit of a brag guard, but you braggart, better come through what you promised. a few people voted for trump in 2016, disappointed, make the bold statements, cannot seem to follow through what he is trying to achieve, especially since the master of the deal, "art of the deal" type of approach. i want to add one thing. it has been a year now, believe it or not after the close of june 14th, 2018, trade issues came

speaking in new york mr powell said the fed remained focused on the economy's long term health but addedeconomy. his comments moved markets, a broadband share prices on wall street the night before and has really caused some has as for trading in asia today as well. you are up—to—date on the business stories. mps launch an enquiry after the jeremy kyle show was cancelled. thejeremy kyle show was described by its bosses today as conflict resolution. critics say it was all conflict, and no resolution. he's a lying, cheating, horrible person. the show is no more. steve diamond was found dead in his flatjust a few days after appearing on an episode that was never broadcast. diamond had failed a lie detector test, one of the pillars of the show. i was telling the truth. the test says you're a liar. executives responsible for the show admitted today they didn't know how accurate the tests were. you can't define what a high level of accuracy is. not 100%, but 50% is not 100%. i'm not a lie detector expert, so what we would do is... no, but you are responsible for this programme. we've now cance

new york, in for vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg markets. guy: we are marking time. we were waiting for the fed decision of the later on, 7:00 p.m. here in the united kingdom. stoxx 600 absolutely flat right now. we are seeing the bond proxy trades coming off a little bit. also seeing the massive move yesterday, a bit of a selloff coming through, actually, quite a decent selloff coming through ten-year.man mayhem will back up around four basis points, and we are also round tripped on the turkish had,r up there we there was a selloff, based on talk of sanctions from the u.s. if ankara decides to purchase 0 missile from the russians, rather than the patriot missile system from radiant. but as a we have -- from raytheon. wonder how much trouble i will be in if i keep using the pound. equity markets being patient ahead of the federal reserve. all the major averages unchanged. flat forll it, mostly the day as we await the 2:00 p.m. decision. it is all about the bond market. take a look at the three-month 10 year, 20 straight days of inversion. but because we have a list of yields on the long and, in

. >> here's what we know we know the new york fed did a study and they estimated that the tariffs on30 per household that was around depending upon what 12i789s yestimates you usee mexican tariffs would be worth more than that all i want to though is i wakno see the administration study that says these tariffs will give me an economic benefit that is beyond the benefits of each household. >> here's what's more perplexing about the notion of tariffs. andy mentioned usmca at the exact same time they also increased the step moving forward on usmca and offering administrative policy that went to the hill. this is weeks after the administration pulled back on tariffs that were already in place on mexico and canada steel and aluminum tariffs in place for a better part of a year if tariffs are an effective tool, why would the administration back out of those tariffs only to turn around and put new tariffs on the mexican economy and the $350 billion worth of imports coming into our country. it simply is inconsistent and doesn't make sense. >> i'm going to leave you with the last word, sir. >

we had the new york fed president and others say we'll try something different this time. on cnbc that went on for some time and criticized the fed during the interview and had this to say about china tariffs. charles, listen to this. bite number two. >> president trump: china very much wants to make a deal. they want to make a deal much more than i do. but we'll see what happens. look, i don't mind taking in billions of dollars. 3.2 we had in the first quarter. a lot of people said we picked up one point because of all the tariffs that were taken in from china. >> the gdp is influenced by trade, import and export. china's economic data experts were up. people trying to get ahead of new tariffs. import dropped more than double. their economy is suffering and it makes sense they would want to do a deal. ultimately the deal -- the things we're asking of them would be good, honest responsible trading partners and it would galvanize their economy longer term. might take some power away from president xi and put it into the hands of chinese entrepreneurs, but it would be a smart

powell followed that up and the new york fed president williams follows that up.es amazing credit and pride in the fact that the federal reserve saved our economy. i sincerely believe under his watch, he's determined not to have another recession. stuart: you are going to read into the language what they are going to do in the future. that's more important than whether they cut rates? >> absolutely. absolutely. speeches, you know, they give them, you got to listen to them but it's only something in there, they have telegraphed loud and clear to the world that they are ready to intervene. i tell people, think about it this way. they no longer want to be the fireman. they don't want to put out fires. they want to prevent them. they want to be the policeman. they want to create, they want to keep order and prosperity. stuart: if you are right, i would have to believe that come wednesday afternoon, if that's the kind of language we get, the market does very well. >> it should do very well. here's the thing. sometimes wall street gets over its skis which it did earlier

the philly fed index, flashing pretty bright yellow flashing lights. for example, in new yorkntiment plunged, the most on record into negative territory and the philly fed index which is sort of the atlantic region, nearly flat now. trade uncertainty flagged as the biggest issue, art. if we see the trade fight extend, how do you see this playing out for the economy? >> well, let me just say very simply, protectionism is never a good policy for prosperity. it is not. free trade is the ultimate goal of all of these policies, i hope. let me just tell you a little story. i flew back from washington last week with a classmate, bob woodward. he's a couple classes behind me at yale. you know bob woodward from watergate fame. we met a bet. we had two dollar bets. one is that the president would have a great deal within six months and another dollar bet that he would have a great deal within 12 months. obviously, i took the positive side and woodward took the negative side of that bet but neither one of us is sure as to what's going to happen. but i am still very optimistic we are goin