please join me in welcoming graham allison and niall ferguson. [applause] >> introductions are better here than at harvard. one thing amy didn't mention is graham allison and i have been co-authors. we published an article on history last year arguing the president of the united states needed a council of historical advisors, this one especially, and we are not in an adversarial relationship. the book we are going to talk about is a book i watched evolve when i was at harvard and i have to congratulate you, you got the timing just right. if you aren't worried now about the possibility of conflict between china and the united states, when you leave this room i guarantee that you will be. let me begin our conversation with a quotation from the book. when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, danger ahead. china and the united states are currently on a collision course for war unless both parties take difficult and painful actions to avert it. war between the united states and china in the decade ahead is not just possible but much mo