still with me is andy chorlton, noelle corum and tom atteberry. e we finally seeing a bit of a fracture, or something to be concerned about? noelle: it is not quite something to be concerned about . we think growth is moderating a bit from here. as i said earlier, we expect 2.8 into the first half of next year. the second half a little more uncertain. but the thing that we are really trying to always go back to is growth is still pretty healthy. we don't need 3% growth for companies to be healthy. that is why we like credit here, although we tend to be somewhat physically positioned. andy: i don't disagree but the fundamental picture not being scary. as you say, we have had refinancing. it gives the issuers more flexibility. not great for bondholder protections, but good for the issuers. the price are being paid in the relative value versus assets. i think people might have missed that you can get a two-year treasury yield close to 3%. that is not bad, when five years ago you had 24 basis points. the world has changed, and people are beginning to r

still with me is andrew chorlton , nick wadhams --noelle corum and thomas atteberry. are seeing a little bit of a breakdown or something to be concerned about? noelle: it is not quite something to be concerned about just yet. as i said earlier, we expect 2.8 into the first half of next year. the second half a little more uncertain but the thing that we are really trying to always go back to is growth is healthy. geton't need 3% growth to companies to be healthy. that is why we like credit here, although we can to be physically positioned. andy: i don't disagree but the fundamental picture not being scary. we had refinancing. it gives the issues more flexibility and it's great for bondholder protections. the price are being paid in the volatil -- relative value versus assets, he might have missed that you can get a two-year treasury yields close to 3%. that is not that .5 years ago you had 24 basis points. the world has changed and people are beginning to recognize that. jonathan: the risk-reward, is that more invest in investment great or high-yield? andy: some of my

joining me is ira jersey, noelle corum and jose rasco. -yield investment great, those in euros and in dollars set for an annual loss for the first and since 2008. how significant is that? noelle: killing back to my growth you for 2019, we expect growth to moderate. we are guessing it will be around low two's by the end of the year. that's a relatively positive platform for credit. we think it is going to -- as long as inflation, which we don't they get well, breaks out in a significant way, the fed will be able to respond to the moderating growth picture and take a step back and only go twice. that paints a rosy picture for credit next year. there have been some cracks in credit this year. there is no denying that. we think it just makes and analyst's job that much more important. these companies remain healthy. leverage and defaults remain low. we think 2019 paints a good picture for credit. ira: i think credit probably has more to go in terms of risk repricing. on some level the fundamentals have not turned, not significantly. slowing pr

jonathan: joining me is ira jersey, noelle corum and jose rasco. great to have you with us. elle, breakevens have rolled over. normal yields have declined. i want a better understanding what degree we are pricing in expectations? noelle: we think the market is beginning to price in moderate growth in year and and in 2019. q1 and q2 will be supported by fiscal policy and a healthy consumer tight labor market. but q3 and q4, fiscal policy 2.0 isn't necessarily certain and also you have a fed that continues to tighten. that's what the market is becoming more concerned about. jose: that makes sense to us. we think of growth will slow next year. the other problem is on the government side you talk about fiscal expansion. where is the money coming from? there is talk of a $1 trillion infrastructure plan. allegedly both sides of the aisle want it. where is the money coming from? the deficit is going up to $1.3 trillion. i think we have a bit of an issue in terms of the sovereign market. ira: it does not seem like the treasury market really cares if there is another $1 trillion in in

noelle corum going to be sticking around.up on the program, we will bring you the market check. the treasury market shaping up as follows, up 12 basis points on a 10-year. up on the front end as well. it has been a soft week for treasuries. still ahead on this show the , final spread of the week ahead, featuring a decision from chairman powell and the fed. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ jonathan: i am jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." it is time for the final spread. coming up over the next week, a decision from chairman powell in the federal reserve. plus, we have midterm elections coming up, a uses eurozone -- a eurozone ministers meeting, and fed speakers including john williams. still with me, andrew chorlton, noelle corum, and thomas atteberry for final thoughts. andy, to continue the conversation on credit, your thoughts. andy: i am going to try and be the diplomat. jonathan: please do. andy: i don't think the price is -- the relative value is there. i agree with noelle the fundamental story has not c

still with me, andrew chorlton, noelle corum, and thomas atteberry for final thoughts.y, to continue the conversation on credit, your thoughts. andy: i am going to try and be the diplomat. i don't think the price is the relative value is there. i agree with noelle the fundamental story has not changed yet, but you want to be positioned before it changes because when the defaults start to change, it will be way too long. the doorway take it out of credit in the market, credit is expanding and it's really tricky. some of those issues in bbb-land, that's $100 billion. a lot of bonds. jonathan: i do listen to the rates, and i think it is the credit equivalent of the barn door and the horse bolting. i can't get my head around it. what is the leading indicator you should be paying attention to? tom: price. am i getting paid? am i getting paid? it is, it is price. it comes back -- from our view is, what is the value of the entity? what is the value of the business? can i come up with some valuation of this thing and get a sense of, how overleveraged it is, or it still has room

ira jersey, noelle corum and jose rasco. that does it for me.ll see you next friday at 1:00 p.m. new york time this is "bloomberg real yield." this is bloomberg tv. ♪ ♪ you build a machine that played tic-tac-toe as a teenager growing up in huntington, new york. later, he made his way out west, becoming a faculty member at stanford university in 1977. four years after that, he brought together researchers develop a -- to develop a new technology known as risk. today, john hennessy sits on the alphabet,irectors of after serving as the president of sanford for 16 years. some of silicon valley's best and brightest were educated under his watch, including google cofounders larry page and survey brand. joining me today on bloomberg studio 1.0, former stanford president, google chair, and knights of the scholars chair, john hennessy. i want to take you all the way back to huntington, new york, where you grew up, and ask you, who was your first leadership mentor? school mathhigh teacher who happens to be intercell in non--- an ursuline nun. she said to