with us now, weather channel's brian norcross. a veteran hurricane specialist, very mindful of how much of a history maker this storm could be. brian, 1944 had a storm on the jersey shore, cut long beach island in two pieces. it rearranged the map. is that what we're talking about potentially here? >> it's very possible. 1944, a great atlantic hurricane was actually well offshore and this hurricane is forecast to be closer to the jersey shore. we have been looking at that 1944 hurricane, we have also been looking at an 1821 hurricane which also ran right along the jersey shore and into new york city and caused tremendous flooding all around the fledgling city at that time. >> is there any good model of the spaghetti noodle graphics, the hurricane projections you can cling on to for folks who need a little bit hope? is there anything that's going to come along and steer this thing out, perhaps something coming across the country? >> we don't think that a significant probably hurricane of a lifetime event can be avoided, brian. but

you heard bryan norcross, wint gusts upwards of 70 miles per ho hour. rainfall totals will be approaching a foot if not topping it before the rain works its way out. the wind gusts tonight will continue as well. in terms of the other fatalities that we've seen here, an 11-year-old in a two-story building when a tree fell into it. also a gentleman driving down the highway when a tree fell on his vehicle. many reports like that in and around north carolina and virginia. it's unfortunate side of the storm for sure. things will not improve here until tomorrow morning and for tonight, we continue to watch that surge, which will be lingering at least the next couple of hours. >> eric we're glad tore the lull, however brief. thanks for reporting tonight. >>> let's move up the coast a little by. if you live and work in washington, d.c., you go to the beach and usually one of two places. delaware or ocean city, maryland. tom costello is in the latter. tom, we've been talking about the degradation of the beaches up and down the east coast, say nothing of the real

i would call it a risk. >> bryan norcross, you have been doing this for a long tile. you were the guy who predicted that 1992 hurricane andrew would come and be a monster, it was. for people who are going to look at irene and see it begin to soften somewhat. how do you avoid complacency in the future? for people who say, it didn't get do me so bad if you're in connecticut, potentially boston? the challenge is that the next time that a hurricane is coming, people respond to it. the fact is that the modern science did a lot of things very well, it predicted you know, way back, how many days ago that a hurricane was going to come right over new york city. modern science does not have the ability to know exactly what shape the hurricane is going to be in. i don't want to minimize this thing. because for millions of people, this is going to be very bad. this is going to be some of the worst flooding ever experienced in the certainly in the top three, if not the top two, in pennsylvania, and new jersey and other areas. so you know, i don't want to minimize it just because i

let's get right to the weather channel's brian norcross now. when we're looking at the path, explain the size and scope of this storm. >> contessa, just to emphasize what the president said, i think this will be the storm of our lifetimes. the odds are increasing. we don't see any way to avoid an absolutely extreme event. a hurricane that we have not seen in a couple of centuries along the east coast. i cannot say strongly enough that all action is required to be sure that you know what you're going to do for the next week. wherever you live along the east coast north of north carolina. let's look at the hurricane right now as we see it approaching the outer banks it's a big hurricane. and it's projected to get even bigger in scope in size. now it's actually going to get the top -- winds are going to get lower, but the size of it is actually going to grow as it moves to the north. it's in this case it really is about the size. first of all, it is going to batter north carolina that doesn't look like any way to avoid a direct megahit on the oute

weather channel meteorologist brian norcross is with us tonight, and, brian, all those eyes are on the blue lines, the projection maps doesn't make the folks in the carolinas very happy. >> not the carolinas and not points north, brian. it's an 80-mile-per-hour category 1 hurricane now but it's forecast to get much stronger and head toward the eastern u.s. takes a look at the track map, we'll show you where it is right now. that's just north of the dominican republic here, it's forecast by tomorrow to move by and intensify into a category 2 hurricane and then as you said, head into the bahamas. then as you say, headed into the bahamas this could be a very significant hurricane event, a catastrophic event, potentially in the bahamas with a major hurricane through there, not ruling out the effects in florida, but it looks like a side effect not a direct hit in florida. the carolinas are right in the path at this point, too soon to tell exactly where. and that's on saturday as a significant hurricane coming ashore likely there on the southeast coast. and then after that, into the northeas

>> brian norcross. thank you for the update there. >>> the weather was just fine on martha's vineyard today where president obama enjoyed a round of golf. meantime, his supporters and rivals battled it out on the sunday talk show circuit. it all comes amid new concerns tonight about the future of social security. we get our report from nbc's mike viqueira. >> reporter: president obama on the golf course today in martha's vineyard enjoying his fourth day of a family vacation. while back in washington, a top political adviser insists the coming campaign is not a concern. >> the president's not worried about his job. he's worried about creating jobs for millions of americans who've been out of work for six months or two years or longer. >> reporter: but heading into the 2012 election, neither the economy nor the politics look good for the president. many of his strongest backers including african-americans are openly frustrated. today a leader of the congressional black caucus called for the president to f

>> all right, brian norcross starting us off tonight with the very best information available, though i wish you had better news for us here on the coastline. brian, thanks, we'll be talking to you later of course. >>> up and down the east coast, officials in 11 states have now declared emergencies, officially and whether they have ordered people to get out or begged people to get out, they must leave, get out of harm's way before this storm arrives. we want to now begin our coverage down south, mark potter is in nags head, north carolina, along the outer banks, where as you can see, hurricane irene's outer bands have already taken effect. hey, mark, good evening. >> reporter: and good evening to you, brian. we are now feeling the first heavy rains from this hurricane and the wind and the waves are also starting to kick up here. that storm was out there on the horizon all day today and moving north, and that had everyone here moving fast to try to get ready. with little time left before it's too late, outer banks residents are making their final preparations. >> who know what is the s

>> brian norcross who hasn't been able to reach into his bag of tricks for anything that's going to kill this storm or move it out of the way. we'll keep talk to you. we want to go to where brian was talking about, outer banks of north carolina. mark potter living proof that the outer bands of the storm are already starting. though, mark, the storm center, of course, as brian pointed out, is still an event that isn't due where you are almost first light tomorrow. correct? >> reporter: that's exactly right, but we are starting to feel the first of the heavy rain bands here now. the wind and the waves are also starting to kick up. see them on that pier behind me. we're told we're going to have gale-force winds tonight, hurricane-force winds tomorrow. the biggest concern here, brian, is for the storm serge and the prospect if the eye he was talking about goes to the west of us we could have heavy surf coming in on both the eastern shoreline and the western shoreline meeting in the middle causing a lot of damage to roads and potentially even homes. that's why emergency managers here are urgi

let's head straight to the weather channel's brian norcross who's tracked some of the biggest hurricanes of our time. walk us through this. >> as you said it is hitting the bahamas. take a look at the satellite picture here. there is great sbaco right there. the core is affecting that island right now and will be moving out of there later on this evening, and finally, they're going to get to see exactly what happened in the bahama, but we fear it is quite bad. then, perhaps strengthening a little bit in this area here, where it's over the open water. lots and lots of fuel there. warm water, up to a category 3, maybe nearly a category 4 hurricane heading for north carolina, and arriving there overnight tomorrow night into early on saturday as the weather starts to go downhill. now, is it going to be a direct hit? almost worst case, eastern north carolina, or will it go a little offshore? impossible to say at this time, in either case it will be a hard hit on the eastern part of that state. and then points north, and the converge, of the computer projections unfortunately is one of the wor

that's the issue. >> brian norcross, who haven't slept in days and probably not for several more. we appreciate it. >>> up next, how prepared are we for the storm? and with so many potentially impacted, how long would it take for help to arrive? you're watching a special edition of "hardball." only on msnbc. [ man ] behind every business is a "what if." what if we designed an electric motorcycle? what if we turned trash into surfboards? whatever your what if is, the new sprint biz 360 has custom solutions to make it happen, including mobile payment processing, instant hot spots, and powerful devices like the motorola photon 4g. so let's all keep asking the big what ifs. sprint business specialists can help you find the answers. sprint. america's favorite 4g network. trouble hearing on the phone? visit sprintrelay.com. chicken, chicken chicken. there are thousands of ways to prepare it. [ chickens clucking ] you know only two of them. time to mix it up. time for new philly cooking creme. it'll take your chicken to places it's never been before. somewhere creamier, dreamier, with lo

brian norcross. we'll be back to you in the hours ahead. now to nags head, north carolina. nbc's mark potter. what's there? >> reporter: we are just now starting to get the winds kicking up, misting in the air. the seas are starting to kick up. we looked at radar and found the outer bands of the hurricane are just to our south. with a half hour or maybe less we'll start getting those stormy conditions. it will get a lot worse tonight and much worse tomorrow assess t the hurricane passes over this area. the biggest part emergency managers fear is where the eye of that storm goes. if it goes just to the west of us, blew pam lick coe sound, big trouble here's. let me explain. what the hurricane comes up on that path, the leading winds could push water from the atlantic on to the eastern side of the outer banks, and then as the hurricane passes through the hailing winds coming from the northwest could push all the water there on to the western shore of outer banks and affect sandwiches this area with water. that's the problem they're expecting, is a water event here, some wind.

let's go from al to weather channel's bryan norcross. brian, looking at the camera shot that was provided by al's crew, looking at the ocean,er talked about it being the angriest. it doesn't look like the storm surge has let up at all. >> reporter: it's just beginning to let up but the tide has been going out as you guys were talking about for the last couple of hours. we had the storm pushing in, the tide coming out and then crossing over. the storm came in sooner at high tide that water would have been another foot or two higher and those cars would have been in trouble and we would have had that much more water at the battery. everything with this, we really have been lucky here even though we'll see widespread effects from this. but just a foot or two or an hour or two one way or the other. a little bit more organization with the center so that the winds weren't so spread out, more consolidated. it's all these little things that worked in our favor here to keep this at the coastline anyway from what we know although we haven't heard

. >> let's get right to the latest from the weather channel hurricane specialist bryan norcross and give us the latest on the path and the time line here. >> okay, tamron. the bottom line right now is that this is still an extraordinarily dangerous storm. the top winds have come down just a little bit in the new advisory, but the wind spreads out over such a large area, and the power of the storm and the movement of the water at the coast to cause to wreak havoc up and down the east coast is undiminished. looking at the satellite picture, and i will show you the size and scope of it. it is off of jacksonville, florida and georgia now, and there is the size of the hurricane and keep it in mind as we move up the coast that it is heading right in the direction of the forecast track to arrive tomorrow at the outer banks or the eastern part of north carolina, and we are fearful there that it is going to be a very bad life-threatening day in the eastern part of north carolina from both the ocean water coming over the outer banks and from the very heavy rain causing major flooding and from the

the weather channel bryan norcross breaking it down for us. thanks for that. as brian was telling us right now the epicenter of things with regard to irene as a hurricane. it's flight. long beach, new york, al roker has been positioned. see that white building in the center. that's a life guard tower. that's been compromised. you can very easily see for yourself it's tilting slightly to the left. it wasn't there about an hour and a half ago. it was placed elsewhere. it smashed into that boardwalk. we'll give you a look at peter alexander's camera. that's cone y island. lots of wind and rain. flags are in tatters because it's feeling the full force of hurricane irene barreling up the eastern seaboard. new york city, again in the cross-hairsing right at this moment. we're at the worst of it right now for everybody in new york city. got to have some concerns about these high rise buildings and if the wind as they make up these sort of tunnel routes of new york city, if they could have problems with glass and the windows and all these many high rises we'll keep a

for the very latest on where irene is head on the how bad it might be, we're joined by bryan norcross, what's the very latest modelling? what can you tell snus. >> unfortunately we see no change in the forecast tract. right up the coast. we've read about in textbooks but never seen in our lifetime. this very well could be the hurricane of a lifetime. let's take a look at it right now as it is approaching north carolina. it's big, big circulation. extraordinarily large circulation, the kind we saw in hurricane ike that did so much damage three years ago as it came into texas. this is a much bigger deal. it's heading right for north carolina. we think life-threatening conditions along the coast of north carolina along the day on saturday and affecting the entire eastern part of the state. on up to the chesapeake. the am of water tremendous amount of water being pushed into chesapeake bay over the delmar have peninsula along the beaches there life-threatening conditions through delaware and then to the jersey shore with tremendous water pushed into delaware bay all along the jersey shore

bryan norcross is following it all from the weather channel's headquarters in atlanta, and we have gotten a update, what is the latest? >> well, it is pounding the bahamas right now, and unfo unfortunate unfortunately, there is no change in the track and it is headed for the east coast of the united states, and we don't see where we can avoid this one and you will turn out to see it is not in the cards. so we look at the satellite right now, and there is great abico right therek and going right over that now, and we are fearful for what is happening on that island at the current time. now, here is the track heading north. so it is going to head off of florida and head toward the carolinas, and saturday, we are talking about approaching eastern north carolina. now, will this be near a worst case for eastern north carolina? near cape hatteras or out to sea? hard to say, because even if it goes out to sea, it is a big hurricane in size that it would still take a toll on the outer banks, but then we get here to where we don't see a scenario where from norfolk up to new england, a significant

. >> bryan norcross, thanks so much for the warnings and thanks for being there. >>> president obama on top of the concerns spoke with the head of fema this morning as federal officials make their emergency plans. nbc's kristen welker is in martha's vineyard, where the president is trying to wrap up a ten-day trip. what a vacation. star crossed indeed. what are their plans there now? >> reporter: hi, andrea. it certainly has been, what a vacation indeed. officials tell us president obama is still planning to leave on saturday, which was previously scheduled. they say at this point the hurricane is not going to change its plans in terms of when he's going to depart. as you mentioned, the president spoke with fema administrator craig fugate earlier today, as well as secretary janet napolitano. they are getting out in front of this hurricane. they have dispatched crews from carolina all the way to maine. they have also set up a number of warehouses in the region, which are housing things like massive generators, generators that are big enough to power hospitals, as well as, of course, f