there will be showers in north florida on and off during the day today. with that humid air mass up the eastern seaboard. there's a lot of fog. you want to give yourself a little extra time. as far as the cold air, it's beginning to show itself. now some of that rain in northern montana, changing over to snow. that's the rain. maine zul la to helen in a, expect big changes. rainy weather, higher elevations. billings, 46. everywhere else it's a nice, mild day across the central plains. enjoy it while it lasts. let's take a look at the weather outside your window. areas like indianapolis to chicago, that area of low pressure is sitting to your south. kind of sitting there and spinning. it will keep you kind of cloudy. you may see a little bit of drizzle and showers. could even see a few showers and storms mid-atlantic later today. big changes everyone by the weekend should experience a cooldown. >>> coming up, tech tight tall zule, fear bounces back, and the city that's cracking down on snacks. i don't like the sound of that. your early morning business hea

still pretty strong line of storms heading down for north florida. for the most part the tornado threat is over. today, the huge storm that caused all the problem at the baseball games continue to spin itself up over top of wisconsin. a cloudy, cool raw day. windy too in the northern plains. still light areas like detroit, pittsburgh and then scattered storms as we go throughout the day down through the southeast. after dark as that front approaches the east coast we could severe storms, isolated, not widespread but from washington, d.c., archbishop all the way down through north carolina especially late this evening we could see damaging winds, the forecast for tomorrow, willie, does not look good and the advice i have to give everyone in new england from new york city up through the northeast. if you can travel today talking to airlines do it today. tomorrow morning at this time it's going to be pouring. >> i got to ask you to do me a solid dear, dear sister-in-law is getting married in new york city. clear that rain out. >> tomorrow. >> do it late

maintaining that strength today passing north, east of florida. but they'll get heavy surf and some rain. taking a bit of a turn northeast by saturday. by saturday evening, it's going to begin to take a turn to the north, and then unfortunately, northwest, coming inland and passing perhaps right near the metro area during the day on monday and into tuesday. with strong winds as well as perhaps some very heavy rain. right now we're around 60 degrees. temperatures around the region will hold steady near 60 through 6:00 a.m. by noon, upper 60s. a lot of clouds around today. drizzle reaching near 70 by midafternoon. i will get a brand new update on sandy's track coming up in ten minutes. we'll show you that in the seven-day outlook as well. danella is here with traffic. good morning. >> good morning, tom. >>> your first 4 traffic report. let's start in montgomery county. passing connecticut avenue in both directions. taking the outer loop as well as the inner loop, nice and clear. traveling in prince george's county as well. checking cameras there. liv

florida, north carolina and virginia are in the republic camp and becoming more so virtually every day and particularly if you take a look at the early vote in florida. banking more votes but banking more people less likely to vote. that is to say more of the democrat early vote in most of these states. ohio for example, 42% of the early vote that the democrats are banked are people who have voted in three out of the last four elections. those are the people who are going to vote no matter what. what you want to be focused on is you want to be focused on the people more spore roddick voters. people voted in zero, 1 or 2 not three out of four. >> sean: how is governor romney trending in the early vote in ohio. >> better. some of these major counties, huge turn around in the number of early votes cast by republicans compared to where they were four years ago and a decline for the democrats. now, that's on top of the fact that we had a huge decline, several hundred thousand people taken off the voter roles, names taken off the voter roles as not voters. mostly in the democrat parts of the

wall street journal poll and in florida a poll out of the university of north florida gives president obama a four point lead forty nine to forty five so clearly mitt romney's debate strategy last week which was to live for thirty eight minutes and paint himself as a moderate worked he's back in the race and will probably secure some big bucks from a few more billionaires willing to make investments in him now there's a chance he might actually win whereas the president's strategy with strategy which seemed to be to let mitt romney walk all over him didn't work so what will tonight's debate do for the race and is there any chance that the issues that really matter to americans but the don't seem to want to talk about might actually come up let's turn it over to the panel means cullen is the senior online editor at the daily caller and richard fowler is a progressive strategist and host of the richard feller radio show welcome to you both think coming on again so this is going to adopt the romney strategy and just shake the etch a sketch here before he goes on stage well ryan will adop

will improve from south florida to north florida there was minor damage. we caught a boat in the bay battered and beaten and half sunk. that is one less watercraft that will be used the next time the weather improves. we have seen some sunshine now but the cleanup does continue and it is headed this way but it is far away from jacksonville, the eye, at 200 miles. florida could have seen the worst it will get. now it is marching toward virginia, maryland, and where you are. >>shepard: the last thing we need to think is it didn't do anything in florida, because it didn't hit. but it hit some islands and the death toll is rising. phil: yes. it is important for people to understand in florida you have seen the pictures, thinking a lot of wind and rain and sand on the street, not too much damage. florida was lucky. it was 250 miles west of the eye. it was a hurricane in the ocean but long the coast of florida it was a tropical storm affect. now the path of the hurricane, jamaica, cuba and the bahamas the death toll has been going up all day long and now 34 live

florida, north carolina, virginia, iowa, colorado, nevada. that's the one that i think is most likely of the three. by the way, in case you are wondering, here's one plausible scenario that would include maine. as you know, see, we even have this nifty ability -- it is possible you could see maine split its electoral votes. the second congressional district there a little more rural. if that happens, then -- and the president -- and romney grabs one there and the president gets nevada, colorado, and ohio, there you have it. you get the rest -- iowa, wisconsin, florida, north carolina, virginia. there's your scary scenario. it is not good. if any of these scenarios actually occur -- the debate of the next president would be decided in a wonderful institution that america loves -- the united states congress. it's happened before. it was the election of 1800. party politics were brand-new and instead of voting for a ticket, each elector was allowed to catst two votes for presiden, being whoever came in second would be the vice president. that wa

all the southern governors meet in north florida outside of tallahassee at the governor's conference and that is where the whole thing starts. reuven wright was the one who said we have to leave the democratic party and we have to leave it now and thurmond, and said no. they said what we need is a 40 day cooling off period map where we figure out what we are going to do and he offered a resolution for the cooling off period map that then and asking people what he they could do he realize not that many people were interested in cooling off and they wanted to stay fired up. thurmond then kind of double down. the reason many people in south carolina recognize this at the for the time is that thurmond was looking ahead to 1950. his gubernatorial term would be up in 1950. he warns the rest of the senate the next rung on the latter and to do that he had to get to the right of all in johnson who was an establishment new dealer. in some ways it's ironic thurmond runs for president so he can run for the senate. he runs for the presidency in 48 to establish, to really you know, establish this

so states like mississippi, georgia and texas and florida and southern california and arizona and north carolina are all transformed in the post-world war ii period by this historic shift in population and political influence. i mean, just think about it. the period from 1964 to 2008 can be thought of this kind of do. if sun belt dominance in american presidential history. when you think about every president elected from 1964 to 2008, comes from the state of the sun belt. bennett johnson from texas, richard nixon from california, gerald ford was never elected, not even vice president come as a guest account he was michigan. jimmy carter, ronald reagan come the first church veteran texas va connecticut. bill clinton from arkansas and the second bush from texas. the 2008 is a watershed election. it ends his 40 year. if sun belt dominance. and there were issues that are critical in the politics that develop, that came out of the sun belt. they had a conservative cast to them. they tend to be oriented about strong defense of an opposition to unions in defense of free enterprise politics. a

. >> the head of poll, they said they stopped polling in florida, north carolina and florida because they think the tied has moved so strong toward romney in those states they think romney is going to win those states. are you there yet? do you agree with that. >> i might buy that for north carolina and 1/2. i don't yet buy that for virginia. i think it's still incredibly close in virginia right now. >> what do you think the shape of the electorate is going to be? you raise that point and it's a very interesting one. will it be like 2008 or is it going to be like 2004, which was an even break between democratic republicans, or are we talking about some kind of average in between? >> that, of course, is the question of the moment, paul. i think the best guess is somewhere between the no advantage in 2004 and the seven-point advantage in 2008. most presidential elections over the last 30 years have been somewhere around three to four-point advantages for democrats, but republicans have still managed to win because they did so well among independents. >> if there's a three or four perce

florida voted back in 2008. democrats won in the central and southern urban centers. republicans in the rural north. will the 2012 map look the same? >> oh, pretty much so. that's what the polling is showing currently. you know, southeast florida is rather liberal. florida's kind of an upsidedown state. the farther north you go, the deeper in the south you are. so the republican candidate does well in the north of florida and the democratic candidate generally does well in the south. and it's the middle, what we know as the i-4 corridor, where things are really fought out. >> i used to live there. i know it well. well, anne, september's job report came out on friday, and nationally, unemployment was down to 7.8% in september. state numbers come out in a couple of weeks. but in august, unemployment in florida was above the national rate by a whole point at 8.8%. can president obama get past florida's high unemployment numbers to win there? >> and it's not just unemployment. i think housing is another key to point out. i'm sure mark knows this well. the foreclosure rates have been high in florida and

if people in tampa and miami look up to north-central florida and think, "hmm, you know, "if californiaincreased pollution. an average 1,000 people move into the region daily, using freshwater for their homes and septic systems. pollution levels in the basin are also increased when farmers spread fertilizers high in nutrients such as phosphorous and nitrate, on crops for increased yields. the excess fertilizer not used by the crops can be carried to rivers, causing algae and other plants to grow. this can change water quality, rendering it unfit for human consumption. dr. graham's task is to produce mathematical models used to predict how these factors and others work together to determine the health of the ecosystem. with these models, she hopes to avoid some of the mistakes that were made in the past in florida. dr. graham: well, the suwannee river basin in florida is relatively undeveloped, as opposed to south florida which was heavily developed in the 1950s after the huge drainage project that basically drained the everglades and created agricultural land and urban lands for people

so i'm giving romney virginia, florida, iowa, new hampshire, north carolina.'m also giving him wisconsin. i think wisconsin is very much in play. i've seen the recent poll numbers, steve. they don't look at sanguine for romney as i think they are and i think wisconsin's in play. i think obama's going to get nevada, colorado and ohio. so again, i don't see romney pulling it out. of course, if any one of those states go in his favor, he wins it by a small margin but, guys, what happens to the winner in the election prediction map? what do i win when i'm the closest? >> a small trophy that we'll -- the producers will make. >> okay. >> and give it to the winner, me, on the air. >> okay. >> and then everybody will know for four years you are the el t elector electoral -- >> made out of bacon? >> should be. it should be. >> the real question is, what sort of shame should the losers have to endure? >> yes, yes. >> the losers or losers. three losers. >> the person that's the biggest loser. >> furthest away. >> you or me. i'm the tightest. you have the widest margin. >

giving up, but there's no question romney has an edge there right now. >> you usually have, mika, north florida against south florida and central florida being what makes a difference. the south florida poll out of miami-dade shows the president -- >> largest county in the state, 52%-43%. >> that's not a surprise. i will tell you, this next poll, though, is a surprise. >> all right. let's go to virginia. the latest "washington post" poll has president obama clinging to a four-point lead. last month it was an eight-point difference. shall we go to ohio? >> i want to talk about virginia for a second. mark, republicans got some good news in the form of an ohio poll we're about to put up. but couldn't really enjoy that because this "washington post" poll showing a four-point lead in virginia, that's just as bad news for republicans as the ohio poll was good news. >> i thought for a while that people were overly assuming virginia and thinking romney couldn't win ohio. in some ways ohio is a better state for him. virginia has all the big groups that are the president's base, younger voters, african-a

north carolina and virginia will go to romney? >> that's right. we look at the polling data in floridaa and north carolina. >> kimberly: a liberal pollster saying it's a lock for romney. >> bob: i suggest he go back to polling school. i know this guy, he is a decent pollster. but to suggest that you write off three states. north carolina make sense. florida, probably getting close. no way you can call virginia. obama is ahead in virginia. 60% of the vote in virginia. all democratic. i don't believe it for a second that's right. >> kimberly: okay. that is your opinion. thank you for participating. tomorrow fox has coverage of the vice presidential debate. i'm going to kentucky for kentucky fried chicken and give you a preview in person of the fantastic debate. >> greg: where are you staying? >> kimberly: yeah, right. two of america's most prominent -- [ inaudible ] their critique next on "the five." i don't want you to get in the hotel room and jump in the bathtub. ♪ ♪ >> aouncer: meet tom, a proud dad whose online friends all "like" the photos he's posting. oscar likes tom's photos, bu

>> florida and/or north carolina? >> florida and/or north carolina.tuff right there. >> i have an update. >> what's your update? >> this is what i learned today. susan axelrod immediately texted me. she said she will shave the mustache. oh, gross. i pray to god -- >> i think joe gets the worst. >> i look like freddie krueger there. >> a little bit -- >> that won't work well for you. >> i look like tony orlando. that is great. bus driver, please, look for me. >> i'm going to be sick. >>

david axelrod said, no, we are doubling down on north carolina, virginia and florida. me of the data from early voting -- i think 35% of early voting has been black voters -- host: in north carolina. guest: they make up 22% of the electorate, so that is a significant number. i think that maybe the obama campaign is a little more confident in that area than the polling data would suggest. host: nancy, georgia, republican caller. caller: first off, i want to let you know that i am a social worker, and the last 20 years, one of my main objectives is to help african-americans and whites work together. the thing that has been most offensive to me about barack obama is the way that he said that he would bring all of the races together. i can honestly say that as a social worker, i have seen more divisiveness in this country than i have pre-march luther king, and this is very disturbing to me. we need to work together as a country -- white, asian, black, no matter what you are. that is what makes this country great. if you start throwing out the racist card for every single th

number one, he needs the state of florida, 29 electoral votes there. he needs north most likely virginia, as well. if he does that, that gets him to 248. florida, north carolina, virginia gets him to 248. then add in the 18 in ohio, no republican has won without it, that gets him to 266. at that point, governor romney could win any other state. now, he still thinks iowa is in play for him. he thinks new hampshire where he has a vacation home might be in play. the republicans at the moment think they're ahead in colorado, tied in nevada. so he has to do florida, virginia, north carolina, ohio. and one more from there. if he can't get virginia, this state is a toss-up state. then he would have to cobble it together with say colorado and maybe wisconsin. but the most obvious path, they call it 3-2-1. win the three republican states, indiana, which we think he has, north carolina, virginia, florida, ohio, and one more. >> all right. so is it possible, and when you talk to the campaigns, and the expert that you are yourself, is it possible for someone to win the popular v

then give colorado to romney ohio, iowa north carolina and florida to romney.nd you'll see it is 270 to 268. the state of maine does it by congressional district. if approximate romney wins one congressional district in maine, then it's possible we could have a tie in the electoral college. a better way of doing that is giving obama new hampshire, ohio, and wisconsin, and then seeing romney run the board here. florida, north carolina, virginia, iowa colorado, and nevada, and then you have an actual 269-269 tie. i do understand however, if the president talks about climate change tonight, tennessee could move into his corner. [ laughter ] >> cenk: that last scenario is not that implausible. that would be the romney comeback accept air you. if he could make a comeback we would win all of the states that michael just mentioned. >> eliot: not happening. no conceivable way. >> jennifer: let's let the vice president talk about what happens in there is a tie. >> al gore: if there is a tie, the house of representatives votes in a very unusual procedure where each state

florida into georgia. that is tracking to the north. some of the florida showers could work into our area overnight and tomorrow morning. temperatures expected to continue way above normal. more in the seven-day forecast. >> tonight, gov. martin o'malley is pushing a new proposal that could raise your bge bill. and comes from a task force commissioned by the governor to assess utilities after the outage that left customers in the dark for weeks. kim? >> the new report from the commission is 131 pages long and lists 11 recommendations for improving the utility system in maryland, and it could mean your bge bill is going up. bge spent wednesday participating in a storm drill, simulating a storm damage. it was the same day as our report on improving the reliability of the maryland electrical distribution system was released. a storm in june left some customers without power for weeks. the report recommended more aggressive tree management and underground wires come not a strategy that bge supports. the task force recognizes the need for uti

you can't afford just to win florida and north carolina. >> we are showing iowa an eight point spreadyou have colorado a five point spread. you have done this. nevada a two point spread. some of the races are bunching up but you have run a campaign before. no republicans have won without ooohio. if mitt romney loses ohio we are still a month out if he loses oohio he has to do what george w. bush did in 2000 and run the board. >> it is headed the right direction. >> he can do it. >> late september early october 2000 we were down three to five points. george bush went on to win all three debates and was up three. it is absolutely possible. i think this is big stakes. tonight is a huge debate. huge for all the reasons. >> there are a lot of people that have heard a lot of romney and haven't seen it. tonight they will get to see him all alone. i think it is a real opportunity for them to get a sense of who he is and who he believes. they are going to see it tonight. >> there is also an opportunity because you are writing a column that the president isn't that great in debates. you talked

series of interviews to local tv stations and about who he talked to -- iowa, wisconsin, north carolina, floridaeff last one of them battle ground states. romney has been campaigning in iowa, this weekend in virginia if the storm doesn't knock him off, in florida and wisconsin. this is what it's all boiled down to, molly. >> absolutely. you see them both doing this marathon campaigning now, this frenzy, going to three states a day, from stop to stop on the plane. you've got to imagine they're just exhausted but it's a very narrow group of states. they're really not venturing outside it. i don't think anyone thinks new states are going to come onto the board at this late stage. there was a little bit of chatter today about minnesota, both candidates putting a little bit of money into media markets in minute machine and the speculation is, is this just the ads that bleed into wisconsin? gwen: it's -- let's do a little three dimensional chat it. it's not just about the campaign, james, about leadership and trust. it's also about a more narrow specific. let's talk about the senate races. >> a lot of

>>chris: i don't think skit likely he will lose north carolina and win virginia and florida. es north carolina he will lose more states in the southeast. you only have limited resources and a limited number of places to put them if he cannot care north carolina he is in more trouble than just there. we have foreign policy debate on monday but we will not wait, we will do it sunday. we will have dick durbin and senator graham debating libya and syria and iran and all those depressing things you were talking about. and that was interesting. and we are startled by the numbers and we will have the head guy at gallup to try to explain to us how he could be seven points ahead nationally but romney losing in the key swing states. we will try to make sense of that on sunday. >>shepard: check your local listings. we have new polls this afternoon, they have all the swing states involved tonight, on the fox report. more than 40 years after a string of gruesome murders linked to charles manson and the followers, police say there could be more victims out there. why they are now looking in