and then you add that together with what happened in north shropshire, cheshire, there aren't that many those seats so if you are a conservative mp in these places, at least for by—elections, is there any such thing as a safe seat and you add that to what happened with wakefield, been sat all night, they have by—election results like buses, they come along at once. you say fortunately, it's possible but nonetheless, the wheatfield result coming in seconds before, shouldn't lose sight of that either. 12% swing to the labour party, we talked about them having a mountain to climb at the next general election, they need 10% to get a majority of one, a swing 12%, they would have on that basis, lots of things can happen, by—elections are different but if that were to be extrapolated to a general election, the labour party would be returned with a comfortable decent enough majority on their own let alone what is happening with the lid dams on the nightmare scenario for the conservatives were talked about already is that if these trends did continue and you had a situation where the labour part

we lost in north shropshire, — safe seat any more. we lost in north shropshire, didn't we? are scared of the politicians, it is tyranny. when the politicians — politicians, it is tyranny. when the politicians are scared of the public. _ politicians are scared of the public, that is democracy. in this democracy _ public, that is democracy. in this democracy right _ public, that is democracy. in this democracy right now, _ public, that is democracy. in this democracy right now, people - public, that is democracy. in this democracy right now, people are worried about how to put food on the table for their kids, people are making horrific choices between whether to put the heating on when it is cold or to actually buy some tea for the family. and you lot are navel—gazing and thinking there might be a leadership contest in the conservative party if borisjohnson loses. conservative party if boris johnson loses. ., ., , �* loses. that doesn't stop the government _ loses. that doesn't stop the government functioning... l loses. that doesn't stop the l government functioning... of l

wakefield looks like it could be a tough night for the conservatives, and even north shropshire, wherey, the lib dems are doing what _ majority, the lib dems are doing what to— majority, the lib dems are doing what to do— majority, the lib dems are doing what to do in by—elections, fighting a really— what to do in by—elections, fighting a really hard camping, looking like they are _ a really hard camping, looking like they are going to run a very close, if not _ they are going to run a very close, if not potential necking seat. this story— if not potential necking seat. this story is _ if not potential necking seat. this story is saying that there are tory mps warning that if boris johnson, if the _ mps warning that if boris johnson, if the conservatives lose both of these _ if the conservatives lose both of these by—elections commit because cause _ these by—elections commit because cause more — these by—elections commit because cause more problems for boris johnson — cause more problems for boris johnson. so far, so obvious. the problem — johnson. so far, so obvious. the problem with

north shropshire was basically conservative since the great reform, since britain became a democracy seats and it's possible that the conservatives managed to get them at the next election but the phenomenon has been developing of historic parties taking areas for granted, of brexit continuing a realignment in the south and conservatives doing less well in some of these places and watch and worry the conservatives as well is that perhaps this is an indication that the brexit divide to some extent, certainly in the south and south—west, may longer be yielding what it was. before 2015, lib dems were a tremendous force in the south—west of england, but now they barely have any at all. but many conservative mps have won in 2015 and will be worried about any potential resurgence. he got brexit down in the past in that respect. we will leave it there at the moment but we still do not have a result. not long now. still do not have a result. not long nova— long now. i'm hearing 20 minutes- _ long now. i'm hearing 20 minutes. from _ long now. i'm hearing 20| minutes. from wakefield. long now.

combine all of that, we've already seen that cost him a by—election, a parliamentary seat in north shropshirepened since december, the real economic malaise which is started to take hold in the united kingdom, partly as a result of the after—effect of the pandemic, partly because of the pandemic, partly because of the ukraine war, some of the worst inflation in europe, the cost of living spiralling for many people out of control and indeed over the last couple of weeks, increasing industrial unrest. it really is an opportunity for voters to express their opinion about all those things. and in different sorts of seats, the two seats available and they are up tonight, you see different challenges, so you have the labour party in wakefield, in west yorkshire, this is historically a labour seat, a labour seat from 1932 into 2019, one of those conservative gains which gave borisjohnson his 80— seat majority, a modest majority as you say, about three—point 8%. the labour party needs to win that seat. and it will be the first game for the labour party from a by—election in ten years. and in the othe

two other tory strongholds over the course of the last year, lastjune in buckinghamshire and north shropshireonservative mps in different parts of the country worried about different parties suddenly breathing down their neck, and they will be expressing that to boris johnson and starting to wonder, yes, 0k, there has been a confidence vote from johnson 18, but will this be another part of the jingo block, if you like a borisjohnson�*s premiership, he starts to look more and more unstable, more and more like a loser, and the thing about borisjohnson that you've got to remember is boris johnson has never been loved by huge sections of the conservative party for him it was a transactional relationship, they wanted to get brexit done and he did it, and he did it with a handsome majority. if hejust and he did it with a handsome majority. if he just starts to look like a loser, someone who just keeps losing, didn't do particularly well in local elections, lots to slough up by elections, lots to slough up by elections, could lose one to labour, went to the lib dems, and that could destabilise and t

with the labour party takeback wakefield, a redwall seat on 12% swing, and the lib dems take north shropshireuld continue to be a defining issue. that's not to say the realignment and what it and still ongoing, there is a realignment ongoing. but brexit is a cardinal issue of british politics, at least with regards to this. it does not seem to be nearly so salient. the fact the live gems and labour are able to be so competitive in these areas proves that to us. i do want to get _ areas proves that to us. i do want to get a _ areas proves that to us. i do want to get a final _ areas proves that to us. i do want to get a final fault - areas proves that to us. i do want to get a final fault will leave from our panel. you've had time to die just and celebrate, i suppose, in terms of the result may lib dem perspective. in a nutshell... they will be absolutely delighted, there will be some cheesy, massive stunt involving blue walls tomorrow or something, they will see it as another road to recovering the damage they suffered in the 2015 election. m0 damage they suffered in the 2015 election.— damag

then north shropshire, and another not—so—subtle photo op, and the lib dems overcame a conservative majority in crowds and votes. but he only came here to tiverton and honiton once during the campaign, and some are wondering whether the rows over parties and policy mean that he's now more of an electoral liability, and the question that conservative party mps have to weigh up is if he's still the best man to lead them into the next general election. on the high street, peter explained why he'd stopped voting conservative. i think they've lost some of the moral ground, so i did vote lib dem this time. i think it's the sort of moderate policies, and i have been disaffected with boris a bit. others weighed up their electoral dilemmas. i'm not happy with boris johnson, but i voted for the conservative party. i don't think he's an honest man, i don't trust him, but, you know, it goes right across the board, you know? no one sticks out to me at the moment as trustworthy. do you like borisjohnson? i don't dislike him, but i think there have been a few mistakes made down the line. so you might go ba

the mp for north shropshire., ., , dowden's resignation demonstrates thattoo. ., ., , , , �* that too. labour and lib dems didn't cam aiun that too. labour and lib dems didn't campaign so — that too. labour and lib dems didn't campaign so aggressively _ that too. labour and lib dems didn't campaign so aggressively as - that too. labour and lib dems didn't campaign so aggressively as they i campaign so aggressively as they might have done in a general election in the respective seats. there are those who wonder whether this cooperation agreement which exists at westminster is effectively now starting to exist on the ground as well. in other words, there may not be an agreement but at least is there an understanding to maximise your potential to unseat the conservatives nationally? hide your potential to unseat the conservatives nationally? we are a smaller party. _ conservatives nationally? we are a smaller party. the _ conservatives nationally? we are a smaller party, the third _ conservatives nationally? we are

in buckinghamshire, north shropshire, a seat the tories had held 200 years, and now here.swer. what - general election? i don't know is the honest answer. what i - general election? i don't know is the honest answer. what i did i general election? i don't know is| the honest answer. what i did not expect a year ago is we would win three by—elections in tory heartlands and have three more mps. i will not predict the future. i think this feels like the mid—19 90s. think this feels like the mid—19 905. if i think this feels like the mid—19 90s. if i can take you back to those days, a government that had been in a long time, they had lost control of the economy, people were turning to the liberal democrats. that was the last time we won so many by—elections in a short period. what happened after those victories, we increased our seats massively and the tory government was defeated at the tory government was defeated at the subsequent general election. i will not call it yet, but it does have a sense that the conservative government is going to lose power and we will see borisj

he is not a winner in north shropshire, chesham and i north shropshire, chesham and amersham, it looksing to us. paul burstow, thank you. - today. thank you for talking to us. paul burstow, thank you. more i paul burstow, thank you. more reaction from conservative mps and it's time to go back to the studio. thank you. the prime minister will face a vote of confidence in his leadership this evening. it follows anger over sue gray's report detailing lawbreaking in downing street. the vote was triggered after at least 54 conservative mps submitted letters of no confidence. ifjohnson wins tonight, and at least 180 mps vote in favour of him, he will remain as leader and be immune from another no confidence vote for a year. number 10 sastohnson "welcomes the opportunity to make his case to mps" and the vote is "a chance to end months of speculation" his spokesman has been speaking and said he will not be distracted by the confidence vote. it was also asked about the resignation ofjohn penrose, the anti—corruption tsar. the prime minister's spokesman said he disagrees with you claim the prime

lib dem pointed by—election over the last year, they have all been extraordinary, 20% plus in north shropshireifferent not - all are quite different not sort _ all are quite different not sort of— all are quite different not sort of what _ all are quite different not sort of what you - all are quite different not sort of what you would i all are quite different not. sort of what you would say a lot sort of what you would say a tot of— sort of what you would say a lot of the stereotypical - lot of the stereotypical conservative _ lot of the stereotypical conservative seats - lot of the stereotypical conservative seats the| lot of the stereotypical. conservative seats the lib lot of the stereotypical - conservative seats the lib dems will target, _ conservative seats the lib dems will target, these _ conservative seats the lib dems will target, these are _ conservative seats the lib dems will target, these are probably. will target, these are probably not amongst _ will target, these are probably not amongst those, _ will target, these are probably not amongst those, you - will target, these are

the tories then lost a by—election in mr paterson's seat north shropshire a month later to the liberaljohnson on that defeat. i'm responsible for everything that the government does, and of course i take a personal responsibility. what people have been hearing is just a constant litany of stuff about politics and politicians and stuff that isn't about them. we can't forget the catalyst for tonight's vote, the parties at number 10 during lockdown. the vote having been completed and we will soon find out the result. there were two damning investigations. a met police inquiry fined borisjohnson, his wife carrie and the chancellor rishi sunak for breaking lockdown rules. in total, 126 fixed penalty notices were issued. last month, sue gray's long—awaited report was released. she is a senior civil servant. she looked at 16 events and detailed excessive drinking, an altercation at one party, one person was sick. she published several photos of the prime minister. this was at one event in downing street in november in 2020. in summary, sue gray blamed... and borisjohnson said this in parliame

you describe him as| a winner but i am thinking about the north shropshire by—election and the opinions on - more? i saw the opinion polls are let's see what happens on the - more? i saw the opinion polls are. let's see what happens on the 23rd ofjune. this weekend i was in tiverton and homerton where there is another by—election and the response on the doorstep was good, particularly when i was out with a candidate, we got a great response. let's wait and see what happens. you mentioned a by—election we did not win in ourterm mentioned a by—election we did not win in our term in government. you will know that sometimes, governments have lost in by—elections midterm. that is not unusual. but they have gone on to win the general election. what matters in that general election is people can look back at that time and see the government has done the bestjob possible given the difficult, especially global circumstances, global pandemic, the impact on global prices of energy, and the challenges at home that has been created such as for the nhs. it is all about delivery and that is what i am

happened last yearin but on paper and what happened last year in both cheshire and amersham and north shropshirerity, your colleagues may be saying they will be in trouble next general election? isplints. trouble next general election? wins a win, and trouble next general election? wins a win. and if— trouble next general election? wins a win. and if i _ trouble next general election? wins a win, and if i win, _ trouble next general election? wins a win, and if i win, it— trouble next general election? wins a win, and if i win, it will— trouble next general election? “is a win, and if i win, it will be a winfor a win, and if i win, it will be a win for tiverton and honiton. bend a win, and if i win, it will be a win for tiverton and honiton. and if the don't win for tiverton and honiton. and if they don't win. _ win for tiverton and honiton. and if they don't win, will _ win for tiverton and honiton. and if they don't win, will be _ win for tiverton and honiton. and if they don't win, will be a _ win for tiverton and honiton. and if they don't win, will be a rejection i they don't win, will be a