. >> all right despite the pandemic hitting retail, the nrf, retail fed aratioar federation expect astopping last year's numbers. more in a minute as you look as those names on your screen first bertha coombs as details from the nrf >> the nrf is forecasting spending of $450 billion and sales growth of 3.6 to 5.2% this holiday season some of those sales have already been pushed forward with four out of ten consumers saying they started holiday shopping early as retailers have spread out black friday deals in response to the pandemic. seasonal hiring has also been pulled forward, retailers expecting to add between 475 and 575,000 jobs this season the retail group expects a strong finish to the holidays, driven by less spending on travel, record savings after this year's stimulus and optimism over vaccine developments at the high end of the estimates, that would represent the strongest year-over-year growth since the big tax cut in 2017, in strong contrast to the declines we saw during the 2008 great recession. and macy's pushing for an efficiency easy play this time around. >> it's goi

i'm curious your take on the one hand, you see that the overall growth that the nrf is projecting is point higher this year than last year we're seeing that online component of that search, much bigger its two years worth of growth in one year that suggests to me that retailers that don't have their online game together, they're going to have an awful season. right? how does that play in to some of the stocks in your universe? i imagine it's good for, you know, the googles, the facebooks, et cetera that, are sort of the ones who are handing out the flyers to get people into stores. >> well, in a way, we're kind of lucky and just, you know, by way of what we cover, we first and foremost cover internet, digitsal and media this trend is going on for last 20 years we've been reporting on this for many, many years i think really the difference, is one, we did see an acceleration even precovid-19. but covid-19 as laura said, has accelerated what we were expecting in three years and happening in six to nine months. so, you know, i completely agree that for those offline retailers that have

and the interest thing with the nrf, the national retail federation's position, i wonder if we have stronger sales but stronger profits. and obviously that's not a great thing for the vast majority of the economy. that just means that they charge more. i think the reality even with the vaccine remains what next year looks like. and i've given up right to predict a new normal. and i'm just going with the current normal. every day, it changes. so i think you're absolutely right. but the question is going to be, which of these companies, how do they emerge and what are people looking to spend? and i think we all heard "pandemic" and thought 2008, initially. and this is shaping up incredibly different than we saw in the great recession from the lasting impacts. >> if we learned anything from 2020, it's like nothing we have faced before. so there you go on that one. simeon siegel, good to have you with us this morning. thank you. >> thank you. >>> the reigning nfl mvp, lamar jackson, reportedly testing positive for coronavirus and he's not the only one on the ravens' team. details in the bleach

could see gains between 3.6% and 5.2% over the same time last year so kelly even with the pandemic, the nrf says consumers will spend more this holiday season that's helping to push those retail stocks towards the highs of the day it. i'll send things back over to you. >> yeah. those are some big moves and we've seen it time and again, dom, on this positive news flow. we appreciate it our dom chu back at headquarters we're 3 for 3 on monday vaccine news with astrazeneca announcing the details of its vaccine efficacy and regeorgeon 2 with a promising treatment breakthrough meg, let's start with the astrazeneca vaccine. will everyone get the 90% version? >> reporter: that's the question let's look at how they had sort of these two different efficacy rates in this trial. one, as you said was 90% and that was in a group of patients who got just a half dose on the first dose of the vaccine and then they got a full dose a week later whereas those who got two full doses in the trial had a 62% efficacy rate so the company says it is working through those data now and figuring out obviously how to m

. >> the nrf is forecasting holiday sales growth of 3.6 to 5.2% with record spending topping $750 billion omnichannel on line sales expect to see the biggest growth up 20 to 30% less spending on travel and optimism over new vaccines could fuel the strongest holiday growth at the high end of estimates since the federal tax cut passed if december, 2017 macy's and apparel retailers surging with gap, ambercrombie and target all at new highs. new pandemic closures present a near term risk ceo like macy's are pushing for an even playing field this time around based on society of protocols. >> reporter: steph, for much of the fall period it seems to be that stimulus checks were running out and also without the seasons and so on and so forth we wouldn't have a normal holiday shopping period but the optimism seems to be coming back despite that. >> yeah. i mean, it has been a nice surprise we know how important the consumer is at 70% of the u.s. gdp. we want to see them do well. i think the consumer feels good because of housing home prices are giving them confidence more people are going back to

the nrf president and ceo matthew shay joins us now. hi, matthew. >> hey, blake, how are you?lake: doing art. happy friday. -- all right. you're predicting a sales increase this year as kristina talked about, 3, 4, 5%, depending on how it shakes occupant. i'm wondering why you think that's the case considering the state of the economy where we've seen, basically, unemployment twice as where we are now compared to this time last year. why are you so optimistic? >> there are a number of factors. we've been doing this forecast for more than 20 years. we look at probably two dozen basic macroeconomic indicators whether that's the unemployment rate or housing starts or gasoline prices, unemployment. so we've got a lot of history of this study being, this forecast being very, very accurate and reflective of the economy. so we've got that foundation. we also have the last six months of consecutive month over month and year-over-year retail sales growth. consumers have been out powering the economy from june when we really went back into more of a opened economy when we got back to bu

nrf says they're optimistic about the holiday and the numbers that we'll get spending in a range fromt enough to prepare the major retail companies, get them through what could be a rough q1? >> i think it is. now, let's keep in mind, cheryl, black friday which is typically the biggest shopping day of the year, but we've seen a lot of pull-forward this year, right. october retail sales were up pretty significantly. people seem to just be shopping earlier and earlier, making black friday a little less relevant. the question is whether or not the consumer is going to spend. you mentioned that 5.2% is kind of the top of the range. i think it's going to be the biggest holiday shopping season ever, by a lot. i think we're going to come in above that 5.2% range. because there's not much else to do other than spend money on gifts. it's been a rough year. people want to get through it and want to make up for it through holiday shopping. the thing to keep in mind is more and more retail shopping is being done online with e-commerce. i mean, e-commerce is up like 35% year over year, so from an

well i think, stuart, in your last segment with walt who is member, waffle house is members of the nrfobs, i think the real important takeaway there, retailers large and small demonstrated consistently from the beginning 6 pandemic we can open businesses in a safe health way way, protect communities, customers, sales associates. retail storeses that is not where we're seeing the big spread. with he can control that environment. our view would be as we get into the holiday season retailers learned a lot since the beginning of the year. we ought to keep the economy over and moving forward. stuart: have we started sales or buying early this year? >> we have, stuart. we launch ad campaign, called shop safe, shop early back in october. many retailers, small, mid-size retailers asking customers to rethink shopping patterns. nearly half the consumers we polled and surveyed, they started holiday shopping earlier than ever, began earlier than ever. we lentenned the season. that is taking pressure on single events and big days. that is keeping everybody safer. we believe it will make up for a lo