. >> michael o'hanlon specifies in u.s.efense strategy and the use of military force for the brookings institution and the international institute for strategic studies. welcome to dw. after the u.s. and foreign troops pulled out, the taliban surged. a lot of people are saying this was protectable. >> i'm afraid -- predictable. >> i'm afraid it is and i was one of those people, but those who advocated staying the course , that was not working either. things will get much worse before they get better and i don't think people should expect a rapid taliban takeover countrywide, necessarily. the fact that beginning with this remote regional outpost and continuing assassination efforts, these would suggest they realize they have a big fight had them if they really want to take kabul, some of the other big cities in the south. they have started with a remote outpost in the southwest, which is an indication it's not going to be quite as easy. 1000 -- one possibility is a taliban takeover as the collapse of country, but at least as

joining me now is michael o'hanlon. he's also the author of several books most recently the art of war in an age of piece u.s. grant strategy and resolute restraint. michael you motivated today's opening commentary. what do you want to add to it? >> well, michael, thank you, thanks to all of our men and women in uniform, as well as our diplomats, aid workers, ngo workers, a lot of those very brave in afghanistan. as you said, they accomplished a lot. they kept us safe for 20 years. the point i would make, on september 12th, 2001, the day after 9/11, you had told the eu or the bush administration officials or barack obama, the aspiring senator at that point if you would say that there are 100 million americans sold as an excellent outcome of 100 million skilled in isis or al qaeda inspired attacks on american soil over 20 years. that is a remarkable testament to keeping us safe here at home by all those who contributed including military forces abroad, homeland security, a lot of people worked hard. certainly the extremi

michael o'hanlon, senior fellow in direct research and foreign policy at the brookings institution. thank you. phil, i had on algebra with k often couple, we'll look at the hopes fears of residence as the taliban takes over. also update you on some of the days, all the news including there were hundreds, gather there right next to the tank. god only knows what happened to them. yet another tragedy 11 on dozens killed in a fuel tank explosion. the hello there july was the hottest month on record across the world, according to us scientists. and for north america. much of that heat has continued into august. but temperatures hadn't been as high as before, them last month. but on monday, for those north western states, we are going to see temperatures fit in the mid thirty's before they dip down on tuesday. and as welcome, wet weather on the way for western parts of canada, where wildfires have been raging now was he moved to the east coast is going to be more wet weather, which seeing severe storms rolling all the way from the mid atlantic down to the deep south, continuing on to some

experts about historical parallels, how to see this and look at the region and one of those was o'hanlonhington and he's written so much in afghanistan, you may know osama bin laden kept a book by him on his book shelf. the speed at which taliban have taken control of afghanistan today is astonishing, he says. it of afghanistan today is astonishing, he sa s. , ., , of afghanistan today is astonishing, he sa s. , ., ., ., he says. it is remarkable at one level. he says. it is remarkable at one level- the _ he says. it is remarkable at one level. the whole _ he says. it is remarkable at one level. the whole thing - he says. it is remarkable at one level. the whole thing is - level. the whole thing is mind—numbing even for those of us that have been following this and knew the possibilities. so we know that afghans don't like to fight in a losing cause which is not entirely surprising that some of the government and much of the government and much of the government security forces would collapse like this but given they have, you wouldn't necessarily expect the taliban to negotiate over any

we can now speak to we can now speak to michael o'hanlon who's a senior fellow and director of researchngs institution's foreign policy program. it is good to have you with others. in terms of what we are seeing, and this, even before the full us withdrawal, what hope is there of the afghan government retaining control of these key cities and provinces? greetings, and i wish we were speaking about more happier topic, because i respect the negative tone of your reporting. british friends as well as us marines know the difficulty of holding onto helmand province, even when we had the maximum effort there. ten or 12 years ago. again, so many britons and us marines gave their lives in trying to clear this area and keep the opium trade lines, trying to keep the other movement lines of the taliban — that they would exploit — out of enemy hands. there is no surprise that at this juncture, with the britons gone, with virtually all the marines gone, that indeed these cities are under serious siege. i think what you will see an afghanistan, as clearly we are already witnessing, some parts of the

well, earlier i spoke to michael o'hanlon who's a senior fellow and director of research at the brookings's foreign policy program. i asked him what hope is there the afghan government can retain control of so much lost territory. and british friends as well as us marines know very well the difficulty of holding onto helmand province. even when we had the maximum effort there ten or 12 years ago. again, so many brits and us marines gave their lives in trying to clear this area and keep the opium trade lines, trying to keep the other movement lines that the taliban would exploit — trying to keep them out of enemy hands. there is no surprise that at this juncture, with the briss gone, with virtually all the marines gone, that indeed these cities are under serious siege. i think what you will see an afghanistan, as clearly we are already witnessing, some parts of the countryjust cannot be helped by the government, even if it gets some american air power backup, even if we continue to provide as an international community, economic and security assistance. and i think helmand province will be

this is for both doctor o'hanlon and the former undersecretary defense.at is your most possible scenario in the south china sea and the best strategic position that's already been waged? >> the scenario that i worryce about most is a conflict that comes from the fundamental miscalculation on the part of beijing. i think right now if you were td turn on the nightly news in beijing, you would hear a constant narrative of u.s. decline. our economy is in shambles, we are tearing ourselves apart in terms of our own polarization and division. look at january 6th they play that tape over and over again. now is our moment to come into our own. that will make you take some risks you m really shouldn't ta. if they are likely right now underestimating the result and a staying power in the region and commitment to the region, they are underestimating the resilience. it's one thing that the united states is resilient. we come out of crisis and pick ourselves up and get stronger. the biggest risk is that they can get away with something through coercion or use of force

it's good to be here this morning with michael o'hanlon and michele flournoy for the rolling launch of michael's new book, "the art of war in the age of peace: u.s. grand strategy and resolute restraint." neither of these two need much of an introduction so i'm going to be very brief so that we can get to our talk here michael is a senior fellow and director of research in foreign policy of the brookings institution where he specializes in u.s. defense strategy, the use of military force, an american national security policy. he has a bachelors, masters, and phd all from princeton in physical science is pretty served as a peace corps volunteer in the former zaire from 1982-1984 where he taught college and high school physics in french. i really cannot thought that was the coolest thing on your bio, michael. michele really needs no introduction. she is a former undersecretary of defense for policy and one of the highest ranking members women ever to work in that mail bastian that is the pentagon. she is cofounder and managing partner of west exact advisor. she cofounded the center for a

>> sandra: michael o'hanlon joins us now.eled to afghanistan many times and has worked closely with the army, also author of "the art of war." welcome to you. he was asked a very simple question there. i can paraphrase what he said, no, al qaeda is not gone from afghanistan, so why did president biden say they were? >> well, you know, in a way, chris wallace asked the easy question because to me, the real question is what kid al qaeda's presence be in six months, 12 months, 24 months, now that we are gone, now that the taliban are back in power. because we know that it is not the threat of the moment that should concern us exclusively, but the conditions that could allow the return for the future. we pulled out of iraq in 2011. isis establish themselves and much of syria and iraq. even though it is very weak in afghanistan today, it will not be weak there in the future, and to me, that is the preeminent reason. i am not going to debate him on the status quo at this moment because i think he is mostly correct, but the strategi

a writing for amy mcgrath, michael o'hanlon, senior director of foreign policy at the brookings institutionght in afghanistan exhibited valor and dignity and made a major difference for u.s. security. i agree. and it's an important distinction to note that we're now in the midst of

we'll also talk with congressman mike rodgers, retired black ops pilot, michael o'hanlon about afghanistanates and giving shots to children under 12? all that plus the afternoon's breaking news. i'm john roberts. join sandra smith and me at the top of the hour for "america reports." see you then. >> the taliban reportedly going door to door, searching for christians and even inspecting phones for bible apps. the leader of an under ground church saying, quote, the taliban has a hit list of known christians they are targeting to pursue and kill. the u.s. embassy is defunct and there is no longer a safe space for believers to take refuge. all borders are closed and all flights to and from have been halted with the exception of private planes. people are fleeing to the mountains looking for asylum. they are fully reliant on god, who is the only one who can and will protect them. kt, that quote is from a man named pastor x. he had to use an alias for obvious reasons. >> you know, this is how the taliban is behaving when the world is watching. they are on their best behavior. when the world seas

with us one man who's studied this for a very long time and it is his area of expertise is michael o'hanlon from the brookings institution. michael, the history is well documented of exactly this happening. time and time again in afghanistan. it seems really hard to believe that nobody thought, i bet it all just crumbles and then we're going to have a mess on our hands. >> well, i'm not going to claim that i predicted that. i thought the cia was in the right ballpark i thought the cia wassaying probably months. be honest with you, i thought there was a scenario that was prolonged civil war where parts of the government and the taj ethnic group, which is largely in the northeast of the country, would essentially reconsolidate in that sector and maybe even drive -- the group from which the taliban get its recruits and you could see a soft partitioning of the country. the main thing is, i thought it was pretty clear, we lost control of influencing any of these scenarios once we decided in pral april to pull out. to me, that's the fundamental story and mismanaging that tactic in august is a rel

let's bring you some expert analysis from michael o'hanlon, senior fellow at the brooklyn's institutevely on the taliban. some are bin laden famously kept one of your books on his book shelf. thank you forjoining us on bbc news. your reaction to what we are hearing, that these talks are shaping up very swiftly in doha? well, it's remarkable on one level. the whole thing is mind—numbing even for those of us who have been following this. remember how fast the taliban fell 20 years ago, so we know that afghans don't like to fight in a losing cause, so not entirely surprising that much of the government security forces would collapse like this. given that they have, you wouldn't expect the taliban to negotiate over anything, and i am still sceptical that they will. it's fascinating. we are processing information as fast as it comes in. as you just reported, developments are happening by the hour, at a pace that even in the annals of rapid military conquest and war, is quite something. i obviously hope and pray that somehow there is an agreement whereby the taliban decided to basically say

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