and the - is both the obr and the institute _ is both the obr and the institute for— is both the obrng about the - institute for fiscal studies talking about the medium j institute for fiscal studies - talking about the medium term position— talking about the medium term position in— talking about the medium term position in tax _ talking about the medium term position in tax and _ talking about the medium term position in tax and spending, . position in tax and spending, and — position in tax and spending, and saying _ position in tax and spending, and saying if— position in tax and spending, and saying if we _ position in tax and spending, and saying if we go— position in tax and spending, and saying if we go on- position in tax and spending, and saying if we go on as - position in tax and spending, and saying if we go on as a l and saying if we go on as a country— and saying if we go on as a country we _ and saying if we go on as a country we are, _ and saying if we go on as a country we are, we - and saying if we go on as a country we are, we won't l and saying if we go on as a i

first of all, i think we can check with the obr, but my understanding having correspondence with themluded , £20,000 is actually included, but it's pretty small. in any case, the £20,000 compared to the very substantial net benefit of the average migrant, that's the first point. the second point, as i say, yes. look, look, i'll show it to you, which is not captured in our tax and spending profiles. >> okay? okay. >> okay? okay. >> so a fair point. >> so a fair point. >> but you actually say 20,000 may be too high, but they haven't tried to. this is just this is 20,000 over the lifetime. >> so it doesn't it doesn't change the fact that as. so let me let me just explain that on average they say a migrant on average they say a migrant on average wages is a net benefit relative to an average. but they also, as you say, they don't include dependents . but the include dependents. but the thing you mention is that dependents are actually very likely to be working. so dependent. here is a term relating to the visa status is not an economic term. and in fact they could also be children and the

have you read the obr letter? oh, you have seen the obr letter. >> you dismiss that, would you? >> the obr is a bunch of left economists. i think the obr is a risible organisation. >> you're a highly intelligent man. how can you dismiss the office for budget responsibility as a bunch of lefties? how irresponsible for you to do so. it undermines your credibility. >> many forecasters the obr got right. >> how many? none. how many forecasts? anyone? anyone can get right obr. all they can do is do their best. >> no, they don't do their best. they're useless. they have been out by billions of pounds, not just years out. their forecasts. five years out are worthless. they are not worth the paper they're written on. they have been out by tens of billions of pounds months before the year end. >> you'd go for the liz truss model , >> you'd go for the liz truss model, presumably as a supporter of liz truss. do you think she did a good job with the british politicians? you think she was responsible for politicians making decisions on the basis of their understanding of economics, rather th

the obr report doesn't actually say that the average migrant is making a net contribution.nts that are earning the average wage of the british population are making a net contribution. and as i said earlier, they're a tiny proportion of those that are currently coming into the country. the report that you cite, the obr report, there doesn't actually make the claim that you've just suggested. >> so hang on, who's going to wipe my bottom? as matthew so elegantly put it? >> well, we've got nine, 9 million economically inactive people in this country already. i don't think by bringing in more people, a lot of whom we are now seeing as well are actually going into work. i mean, people do come in on the health and social care visa, maybe work in the in the sector for a few years, but then they go on to do other things. so the idea that it's a long term solution to the health and social care crisis is to just we've got an ageing population. >> we're getting older as we're not having enough children. as someone on this panel has already said, and these people are not coming in to h

the obr doesn't to do stuff by— investment? the obr doesn't to do stuff by accident.u would support that? yes but i would also want - stuff by accident. you would support that? yes but i would also want to i that? yes but i would also want to see wealth — that? yes but i would also want to see wealth taxes _ that? yes but i would also want to see wealth taxes and _ that? yes but i would also want to see wealth taxes and unless we i see wealth taxes and unless we tackle the fact that we do not have a fair taxation system that doesn't redistribute wealth fairly we are not going to give the members of the investment we need and we won't rebuild our public services. we need to seek policies like equalising capital gains with income tax thresholds and we need to be looking at digital services tax.— at digital services tax. some of that may be — at digital services tax. some of that may be coming _ at digital services tax. some of that may be coming but - at digital services tax. some of that may be coming but the - at digital services tax. some of - that may be coming but

and now what we're seeing in the west and what's reflected in the obr's prediction today is that when aren't enough babies born to replace people who leave the workforce, you have this total funding deficit. there are not enough taxes to pay pensions, essentially, and not enough taxes to pay healthcare. now, we've kind of covered that up with immigration, which isn't a real solution to this problem, but it's kind of fudged the figures. that hasn't happened in japan. that's why it's so much more stark, but very soon it's all going to go bust, as the obr have actually been saying for some time, but people haven't paid attention. >> and what do we do to encourage people to have more children? because the state makes every effort to make it expensive to have children. there's very little support and an awful lot of extra cost. if you have children . you have children. >> yes, absolutely. and britain has one of the least generous systems towards families in any of our competitor countries. so the tax system is an obvious target for reform. it shouldn't be the case that a household that has

richard hughes, the chair of the obr, was very clear, he described it as one of the largest year overgainst forecasts outside of the pandemic. his words. we have had to take tough decisions to stabilise the economy and repair the damage, including targeting winter fuel payments, whilst protecting pensioners. 800,000 pensioners are not taking up pensioners are not taking up pension credit. we will align housing benefits, something the previous government deferred year after year after year. because our commitment to the triple lock, pensions were protected to increase by over £1000 in the next five years. the prime minister also inherited inflation back target, interest rates being cut, unemployment and the fastest—growing economy in the g7. but that is not the point because the prime minister now has to start taking responsibility for his own decisions. if, as he says, the public finance is his priority, it was his decision and his decision alone to award a train driver on £65,000 a pay rise of almost £10,000. it was also his decision that a pensioner living onjust £13,000 decision th

burden in the uk is the highest it has beenin in the uk is the highest it has been in 70 years and the obrit is going to go to the highest in 80 years, before any additional taxes that might be imposed in the budget. business is waiting and watching, and frankly concerned.— watching, and frankly concerned. �* ., ., concerned. and what about the bu ers concerned. and what about the buyers everywhere _ concerned. and what about the buyers everywhere from - concerned. and what about the buyers everywhere from the i concerned. and what about the i buyers everywhere from the uae to jersey about having a buyers everywhere from the uae tojersey about having a four day week? it is argued it can reducejob burnout and increase talent. our employers likely to give the option? i talent. our employers likely to give the option?— give the option? i think many -la ers give the option? i think many players are — give the option? i think many players are already _ give the option? i think many players are already giving - players are already giving people the option and everyone has the right request flexi

look, those according to the obr, those who come here to the obr, those who come here to work are on in the uk, the average wage in the uk, the average wage in the uk, the average wage is around 35,000 a yeah average wage is around 35,000 a year. in london it's something like 44,000 a year. so they're only paying in half that and they're only receiving half that and they're paying in in accordance with the amount that they're receiving, which is a pittance compared to the benefits , the cost to the nhs, benefits, the cost to the nhs, to schools. i mean, all these things have to be factored in if you're going to establish how much it is. you can't just leave it to how much they pay in tax. there's a great deal more than that when you're working out how much in each individual you and i cost the state. >> and that's what these eye—watering figures prove. now, what's the way out of this? because we need immigration, skilled immigration, high earners, you know, americans, swiss , maltese cypriots swiss, maltese cypriots typically earn very, very good money per capita compared to the aver

but the obr also looked at the average migrant and the high skilled high wage migrants.igh skilled, high wage migrants are a net contribution to the uk treasury . but interestingly for treasury. but interestingly for the average migrant . so the average migrant. so i suppose this this discounts those at the very top and those at the very bottom. they have to live to the age of 93 before they become a net drain on the uk treasury . the average migrant uk treasury. the average migrant is a net contributor right up until they live well beyond their life expectancy, surely that suggests that there's a part of our migration system thatis part of our migration system that is working well. >> so this is where i would quibble with the obr. i'd argue that the average migrant, you know, you look at the cohorts that have been entering in 2021 to through to 2023, and what we are seeing is fundamentally 70 to 80% of them are earning less than the migration advisory committee's own report suggest they need to be earning to make a net contribution, which is around between 38 and £45,00

first of all, it comes from the obr and i don't believe anything much that comes from the obr, and secondlybut secondly, even if credible , even if it was true if credible, even if it was true and meaningful, even if it was true and meaningful, there are lots of reasons why we need less migration into this country and why we should be taking active steps to reduce it, but this is not one of them. the main one is that we've built an economic model, which is overly dependent on importing low paid labour, and we have to break that economic model if we're going to, increase productivity in this country and actually advance economically. and the only way of breaking it is to is to cut off the supply, if you like, to the businesses, because as long as they can get cheap laboun as long as they can get cheap labour, they will not do the automation, they will not do the investment, they will not do the modernisation which we need to do. and that's where the argument should be focused and that will benefit us all over a period. and figures like this, which you know, say these figures which will just

that's the obr's report. but we've got this rather amusing story., i want to say amusing grimly, grimly ironic. let's say prime minister's purse stolen at police conference amid early prisoner release. so dame diana johnson was addressing. she's a police and crime minister, was addressing this conference and had her purse stolen during the conference in a brilliant demonstration of the problem, if you like. she's basically they're going tough on crime, tough on the stop that guy. and he was running out. she's like, that's chanel. and a guy immediately stole her purse, which in a way is perfect and in a way is ridiculous. but it's pure britain 2024. >> it's perfect. what i liked is, is that the conference, they're complaining that it was they're complaining that it was the police superintendents association somewhere up there in warwickshire. if i know where that is, and i do know where it is. and they were complaining that they're not having enough police staff. yeah. and you know, this is at the there's they're all police there. >> yeah. >> yeah. >

it's tough to inherit tough £22 billion black hole, which the obr did not need.nheritance. that is what they left now back when they were in government. they would have pretended it wasn't there. they'd have walked past it, put it in the long grass. we're not going to do that because we were elected to change this country for the better and stabilise our economy. no prime minister no prime minister wants to do what we have to do in relation to the winter fuel allowance, but we have to take the tough decision to stabilise our economy to ensure that we can grow it for the future . and as i've said, we the future. and as i've said, we are working hard on pension credit. we are allowing housing benefits, which they did not do for years and over five years. it's projected increase of up to £1,000 for those on pensions. we answer the tough decisions that they made up . they made up. >> bebe rishi sunak the government doesn't have to choose to take money off low income pensioners in order to give it to highly paid train drivers. that is the choice that he has made, and

i would say, looking ahead, it looks like much of the government bodies, the obr as well, they are excitedrowth. if she could borrowjust idea of investing for growth. if she could borrow just to invest, that could take some pressure of the day—to—day spending. pressure of the day-to-day spending-— pressure of the day-to-day sendina. . ~' , . spending. thank you very much indeed, linda. _ spending. thank you very much indeed, linda. a _ spending. thank you very much indeed, linda. a quick- spending. thank you very much indeed, linda. a quick look- spending. thank you very much indeed, linda. a quick look at l indeed, linda. a quick look at the weather now. hello. the weather is continuing to cause some significant disruption out there. we've got some intense rainfall that is leading to flooding problems for some across parts of central and southern england in particular. here's the radar from the past few hours showing where we've had the heaviest of the rain already. it's been particularly persistent for parts of central and southern england here, where we do have an amber warning in force

mail, nanny starmer�*s ban onjunk food ads, and an unsustainable path on overspending according to the obr about this warning from president putin that if we give permission for these missiles to be used in russian territory, he says we are at war with them? i territory, he says we are at war with them?— territory, he says we are at war with them? i think ukraine has a riaht to with them? i think ukraine has a right to defend _ with them? i think ukraine has a right to defend itself _ with them? i think ukraine has a right to defend itself and - with them? i think ukraine has a right to defend itself and should | with them? i think ukraine has a i right to defend itself and should be assisted but i do think we have to be careful about rhetoric, with ukraine and russia but also in the middle east with iran and the escalation of war. we should be working to find solutions that's not just ramping up the arms race. thank ou ve just ramping up the arms race. thank you very much. _ just ramping up the arms race. thank you very much. all — just ramping up the arms race. thank you very much, all o

employee, but this was the last time bilova takes part in an operation, or should i remind you of the obrm like a father to it. in general, for her return to the authorities, formally there are no obstacles, the key word here is formal, in short, you heard me, let me go, come on. i forgot my change yesterday, yes, now, please, continue doing this, you will either be killed or put in jail, at best, stop it, got it? bye, zhenya, wait, i hope you liked it here, if something is wrong, tell me right away, okay, and we will help you, i really want you to feel good here, i need to tell you something, yes, of course, what is it, you are very kind and... beautiful, you will still pick me up, right? of course, behave well, don't zhali, yes, we'll take him for the weekend, and i 'll drop by to see you this week, you promise, i promise, wall-crackers again, great! what kind of people are in my hut, you warned me, i at least cleaned up, you know him, well i know, with a morchok and what, haven't seen him for ages, where to look for him, i have almost no idea that you're such a rude person, i 'm talkin

what's going on here is the labour government had to do something to show the markets, to show the obrce for budget responsibility. they will take tough choices on spending and if that means taking away universal benefit from millions of voters, well, they'll do it and they're doing it. but there could be a long term cost to that, certainly, but it's not something which they wanted to do. i was in brighton just now with sir keir starmer. he addressed the tuc conference, the issue of the pension credit, the issue of the pension credit, the pensioners winter fuel payment payments didn't come up at all, but he did make clear to the union members there that the difficult economic situation means they can't keep paying out big pay rises going forward, and there'll be lots of people who will feel less well off. i think after the october 30th budget. >> and chris, it's also worth pointing out that the chair of unite the teacher's union and there at that tuc conference, they said that taking the winter fuel allowance was picking the pockets of pensioners. paul novak from the tuc was strongly a

the obr has made that clear . that's a fact. that clear. that's a fact. the vote, if you're a labour mp who is calling for there to be a debate about this because you disagree with the government, you should have the whip suspended. i am hugely in favour of the labour leadership taking a really hard line on this. it's government policy. it's a financial motion. it's important to the health of the economy and we can't have hard left about the health of old people though. >> andy, you know, i'm looking at neil duncan jordan here and i don't mean him any ill will whatsoever. but i would, i would take a stab at it that he might be relatively near pension age himself, you know, and you're saying that you should have the whip removed as well as his winter fuel allowance. if labour got a problem with old people. >> no, obviously not, but let's be clear about this. only elderly people, older people have been more protected than any other age demographic in society over the last 15 years. thatis society over the last 15 years. that is an absolute fact. if you look

, was the obr's projection that the government's debt over the next 50 years will rise to being 270%. if all we did for a year was to clear the debt, we could do it. if we didn't spend anything on anything else. but that is ballooning. if we carry on on the present trajectory. so to believe that this 22 billion is really the fundamental problem with the state of the public finances is completely wrongheaded, and bigger cuts are going to have to be made. >> well, yeah, but this is it. and in order to do anything to get rid of some of that debt anyway, it's got to be growth, growth, growth. he spoke a lot about growth before the election. he stood in front of banners with growth behind him. have we seen anything that suggests that he's going to go for growth ? for growth? >> no. i mean, i think that's what's so disappointing . you're what's so disappointing. you're right. it has been the mantra of this government. and while they were in opposition, that they're going to be laser focused, laser focused. that's what keir starmer sold us on economic growth. but economic growth doesn't rea

. >> what about the obr? >> what about the obr? >> they've got my nomination, nina. thank you.ountry, has he become the most hated man in britain right now? i think he has. >> oh, okay. all right. nina, mine is an, a sculptor called anto brennan, who is the belfast artist who produced the queen's statue, run with her and the duke of edinburgh and the corgis , duke of edinburgh and the corgis, which was unveiled, which is absolutely atrocious . absolutely atrocious. >> atrocious? yeah. >> atrocious? yeah. >> it's the one who doesn't look anything like her. it doesn't look anything like. >> it. looks like she's got a beard. yeah >> could be. >> could be. >> that's because it's seriously not good. >> no, it's not good. it's not good. okay, well, they would have all been worthy winners. i've gone for lambeth council. mainly because i did feel that that sculpture has had an absolute kicking all day. and i thought the last thing he's going to want to see just before he goes to bed is me. give him one more little kick to the head. there we go. and. but look. thank you very much. i've

the obr is looking into the processes _ government.al for government departments to have in the year spending pressures which are usually worked through by way of supplementary estimates or indeed by controlling expenditure within other parts of that particular department. but the central point here is that the labour party is coming forward with this £22 billion so—called black hole, it does not stack up, as i have said, have of it relates to be political choice they took to pay public sector workers above inflation pay increases without any strings attached whatsoever, and thatis strings attached whatsoever, and that is what is really going on here, and this isjust to that is what is really going on here, and this is just to cover the fact that labour, during the run—up to the general election, told the british public that they would not be putting up taxes in a whole variety of different errors, and i think we are going to discover something very different at the end of next month. fiur something very different at the end of next mon

they don't want to reveal their hand in public yet, but i can tell you this come the budget and the obrook what the figures are. >> yeah, i think i think you're right. i think we're probably going to see a horrendous tax raid in the october budget. i think it's absolutely ludicrous that throughout the election period, labour were saying we're not going to increase taxes on working people, whatever that means , and then suddenly saying means, and then suddenly saying we are going to increase taxes, but it won't be on working people. it'sjust but it won't be on working people. it's just absurd. but it won't be on working people. it'sjust absurd. it's for the birds. this idea that you can increase taxes and not hurt anybody if you increase vat, if you increase corporation tax, it trickles down back to trickle down does go back to consumers. and ultimately actually a lot of the time if you increase corporation tax, the cost ends up going to wages for employers for employees. and indeed also in higher prices. so we end up footing the bill anyway , on the point about, sort anyway, on the poin

speaker, the fact of the matter is this they left a £22 billion black hole and they hid it from the obrchard hughes is absolutely clear. it's the largest year ahead overspend outside of the pandemic. now of course, when it comes to mitigations and impacts, we have put those in place ramping up pension credit , put those in place ramping up pension credit, dealing put those in place ramping up pension credit , dealing with pension credit, dealing with housing benefit and linking it, something that the party opposite did not do for years. and because of the tough decisions that we're making to stabilise the economy , we can stabilise the economy, we can make sure that the triple lock shows that increases in pensions will outstrip any loss of payments. but before before he complains about us clearing up his mess, perhaps he'd like to apologise to the £22 billion black hole. rishi sunak. >> mr speaker. mr speaker, this has got. mr speaker. >> i want to hear the question . >> i want to hear the question. >> i want to hear the question. >> mr speaker, when i was in government, i delivered rec

. >> amy turner so this piece in the telegraph uses data from the obr.iable set of data. but it only looks at low skilled immigrants when they arrive. and it assumes that they're going to stay low skilled throughout their life. and if you take the average immigrant coming into the uk, the data set changes quite significantly. and the average immigrant will take out far less than they put in. and that's down to things like the fact that they don't use the education system because they arrive here as adults, so they don't take out that £6,000 a year or whatever to get educated. but they might have children. so i think it's a bit unfair that we look at the low skilled migrants. we assume they're not going to advance throughout their life, and we don't look at the average immigrant, i think, who is a net benefit. >> but if you're looking at a snapshot and you're saying that in that snapshot, they're costing £150,000, and then you want to look at another snapshot later on, i mean, this is a specific look at low paid migrant workers and the immediate drain, th

i'm sure she's doing the best she can, but in my law, if i was to be looking at that and even the obruestioned their vat rate on private schools, if i was to look at that, i think what 1.7 schools, if i was to look at that, i think what1.7 billion is what you think you'll raise as soon as you lose a certain percentage of those people and they start going into an ever increasing, filling up state sector, you're going to be paying sector, you're going to be paying more for these people. it doesn't even make any sense. doesit doesn't even make any sense. does it make sense? i think it's £7,500 per pupil that goes into this sector, into the state sector, which parents who have kids, who pay for them at private school will be paying that as well as the private school. so i don't in fact, if anything, private schools help to reduce the burden on state schools. i don't get what her economics is, but coming up later on, we'll have some parents from an organisation who are looking into this, and i think there are people who want to sue the government on it as well. you're with me. i'm nana aku

one of the big mistakes of the premiership is that they ignored the obr.e treasury and the bank of england. and so the messaging that came out was, was really negative . and people were really negative. and people were basically betting against britain. they they people thought that, you know, some lunatics had taken over. we don't know what's going to happen, you know. so yeah, it's very much about messaging the actual amounts, you know, that were involved in the in mini—budget, even if the estimates have been correct and they turned out to be huge overestimates. we're not that not that enormous. it's just the way they went about it and the message was we're going to keep on cutting taxes and we're going to keep on borrowing to pay for these tax cuts. that's what spooked the markets. it was very largely about messaging. >> well we'll see. we'll see what happens. whether she is able to find this 50 billion and continue to borrow to invest. thank you very much indeed. christopher snowdon from the institute of economic affairs . institute of economic affairs

the obr, the office for budget responsibility, which kind of tracks public finances.nt body and they put out a report two weeks ago, and the headline of the report basically was that unless something drastically changes, britain is going to go from 100% of gdp, which we hit this month , of gdp, which we hit this month, to 270% of gdp in 2070. so nearly three times the income, the annual income of the country and what the obr is communicating to the public and to the politicians is effectively that there's going to be austerity for a very long time, there's going to be cuts to government for a very, very long time. and i think basically this was i mean, i'm speculating, but i think this was communicated to the to the labour government to some extent while they're running. and then it was put on their desk when they came in, probably. it was put on their desk when they came in, probably . and so they came in, probably. and so i don't really buy that there's 10 billion left of space. i mean maybe they can they can show it by doing some creative accounting . but if they'r

so for many people, this is a cut that they are doing to show the obr to show bond markets.ts of the economy, but many pensioners watching gb news today are deeply upset with this cut coming in november. >> it is extraordinary, given the choices that the government could create any energy. won't even create any energy. and of course the clamping down on north sea oil and gas that's going to cost a lot in terms of tax receipts. there is so many things that the government is willing to spend money on. it's very interesting that they've chosen pensioners as the ones to clamp down on. >> yes, entirely. and i wonder whether this may be an albatross that goes around the necks of this government through the five years. we think back, don't we? to the lib dems when they, they hiked, tuition fees in 2012. and if you ask anybody now what what are the lib dems do in government. they mention to you tuition fees. it's dogging them. 12 years later, and i wonder whether pensioners just won't forget this. the problem is this is 10 million people can vote and they're losing this money. and o

it's not inside the obr forecast that won't be released until we get there.t rachel decisions are. clearly, i'm not going to comment on them, mostly because i don't know about them. and until the forecast is done, we don't know what's there. >> but also this idea of it being an inheritance. 9 billion of that 22 billion black hole has been set aside to give pubuc has been set aside to give public sector workers a hefty pay public sector workers a hefty pay rise. so it's not an inheritance , that is it? it's inheritance, that is it? it's a choice. all of these are policy choices, aren't they? >> so every single government has accepted the pay review body recommendations. the thing i'm really worried about at the moment is my mum needing an ambulance and a doctor not being there. 1 in 10 nursing vacancies at the moment are vacant. you pay a competitive wage to get workers in there. we are a responsible government. we will get doctors and nurses in post. we will get the trains running on time. it's part of getting this country moving. >> but the pay recommendatio

it's a report by the obr which says the uk's debt is set to triple over the next 50 years.d by a number of different pressures. one of it is an ageing population. another seems to be the cost of net zero, which we know has been costed to be in the trillions. one of the issues we also have is that we have a demographic crisis. we're having fewer babies and people are getting older and the health costs are going up. >> but what does it mean to viewers? i mean, is debt a problem for a big country or can we just handle a bigger debt? well, some people argue there, but they say that we're actually going to have to have higher taxes. >> and i don't think that people are going to people will agree with that. i think people feel that we've got the highest tax burden. we've had since the war, and we actually can't take any more pressure. now, the best solution overall to this is growth is higher growth. i mean, growth is higher growth. i mean, growth has been anaemic for goodness knows how long. they're also projecting that it's going to be even worse unless we have big changes in p

. >> just to respond to that, the obr have have expressed another one of these wonderful technocratic his point. >> matthew, make his point. >> matthew, make his point. >> the office for budget responsibility have questioned the state of the finances and the state of the finances and the openness. i think, of the finances that the tory party left. there is certainly poverty in this country. we've got an enormous number of children in poverty. as a consequence, in part of 14 years of tory rule. do i want 10 million more? do i want to see that? do i want to see that change? absolutely. havei see that change? absolutely. have i criticised labour's policy on the pensioners, on on the winter fuel allowance? yes, i have, because i think people just above and even a little bit more than just above the threshold of the means testing are going to suffer. do i think it was good policy or good politics? no. do i think that we're talking i think we're talking here about deliberately trying to target. do i think you've said that he was he he's using this. >> he's talking 10 million pensioners to t

the obr. .. they said i was right on that.— i was right on that.ght on that. there is a question of principle, that. i was right on that. there is a i question of principle, that many people want to see immigration come down but many people want there to be enough carers in the social care sector, for example. they want there to be enough nurses in the nhs, enough people available to work in the bars and restaurants when they go to london for a special weekend of treats. it is an important question of principle. would you be willing to see jobs stay vacant, the economy perhaps shrink or not grow as fast as you would like it to but if the numbers of immigrants came down? would that be a price worth paying? down? would that be a price worth -a in: ? , , down? would that be a price worth .a in. ? , , ., , down? would that be a price worth .a ini ? , , ., , , down? would that be a price worth ain? ,_, paying? firstly, and this is an important _ paying? firstly, and this is an important point _ paying? firstly, and this is an important point of _ paying

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and also the obr are looking into this policy because it doesn't bnng this policy because it doesn'tit will then it's meant to , then that's no it's meant to, then that's no good. and then we've also got the vat on private schools. these things are turning into to appear to be coming damp squibs aren't they . aren't they. >> no they're not. i mean, look, you know, the last time there was a tightening on non—dom status in 2017 under the conservatives again, there were major predictions about leaving the country. actually, just 2% of people left the country. and do you know what? even if the non—dom change doesn't raise a penny, an additional money and i do not believe that will be the case, i think it will generate funding. >> well, this is still i think it doesn't matter what you believe, does it? i mean, if it does, it does, it doesn't. so if it doesn't, what's the point? >> i'm just coming on to that. now, if you let me answer the question, it's still the right thing to do because it is fundamentally wrong in terms of fairness and principle that people claiming that their primary r

this policy is about showing the obr, showing the markets they can make tough choices on government spendinghat, despite all that, chris, he will get a great reception today. keir starmer, he will, he will, he will, he will say though, looking at the brief words overnight that he will warn, we can't keep paying out big pay rises. they'll be quite tough choices . and they quite tough choices. and they will say clearly that the winter fuel allowance is one of those. >> that's chris, i'm andrew pierce, we're here. we will be here for keir starmer's speech. i bet you can't wait for it. it's going to be the biggest. the first speech by a labour leader to labour prime minister to a conference since 2009, to the weather. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar, sponsors of weather on gb news >> good morning. welcome to your latest gb news weather update brought to you from the met office. blustery showers moving into northern areas this afternoon as a band of rain clears down to the south of the uk. and behind that band of rain is turning quite a lot colder as well into this afternoon. so a fairly cl

she said nothing about the broken model of mass immigration, which the obr said two weeks ago is costing00 a year for every low skill, low wage migrant coming into the country, which many of them are. >> she spoke of the cost of the rwanda scheme. >> she said she spoke about the cost of the rwanda scheme, but she didn't talk about the actual model of mass immigration in our country. she didn't say anything about social care. she talked about, you know, the winter fuel payments, which are going to save 1.5 billion. she didn't talk about the elephant in the room, which paul johnson and the institute for fiscal studies have said is the really big problem facing the british people, which is how are we going to pay and support a much larger number of older people in the future? she didn't say anything about that. and just lastly, i mean, this was the line for me where there are vested interests, labour will take them head on. well, actually, where there are vested interests, i think labour will say, let's give you a pass to number 10 downing street. let's take the apartments in new york. let'

taken together alongside the obr's fiscal risks and sustainability report, they depict a perfect storming pressures on the nhs, growing numbers dropping out of the workforce and spiralling costs to the public purse at a time where there is already a £22 billion black hole in the public finances. this is what we are up against. i have beenin what we are up against. i have been in the department of health and social care for two months. day after day i'm shown graph after graph with all the lines going in the wrong direction. recognising this is criticised by some for being gloomy. it's not actually, it's something this country hasn't been used to for a long time. this country hasn't been used to for a longtime. it is this country hasn't been used to for a long time . it is honesty. for a long time. it is honesty. this country has had enough of politicians who turn a blind eye brush issues under the carpet and delay decisions until after the ever looming next election. this government has resolved to be honest about the problems facing our country and serious about solving them. you saw

the obr says that it will affect 7 million pensioners. that's paups million pensioners.s paul's comments, and annette says yes, there should definitely be a debate and a vote about scrapping the winter fuel allowance. it's beyond bad that reeves is taking away this lifeline for millions of pensioners. do you think that labour are running scared when it comes to the winter fuel payments? i believe we might be able to. are we able to reintroduce james price? are we? i think we can't. there he is. second time lucky, my good man. so yes, which way do you see this leadership campaign going? who's. who's the front runner for you ? for you? >> yeah. you can't keep me silenced for long. thanks so much for having me back on. i'm not i'm not backing anybody yet. i'm still waiting to hear what people are saying. i think it's a good contest so far. i think that kemi badenoch performance was almost flawless this morning. i think that you guys were right in that that migration, immigration is going to be such a big issue for conservative party members and also for voters as well, that

nation speech before parliament opened, pointed to the ons, the independent ons figures and also the obr'shere they said actually public borrowing was greater. earlier in the year than expected and that was evidence of your mismanagement. and that was also to blame for the reason they were having to make these winter fuel cuts. they were saying that , yes, pensioners are saying that, yes, pensioners are better off thanks to the triple lock, but actually they had to do this because it would cause a run on the pound otherwise. >> politics is about choices. what they have chosen to do is to give train drivers inflation busting pay increases. they have chosen to spend all £9 billion on increases to public sector wages , rather than protecting wages, rather than protecting pensioners this winter. they have prioritised this deliberately and the british pubuc deliberately and the british public know that. >> laura, how long do you think labour and keir starmer, the prime minister, has left? how much goodwill is left? how long can they keep blaming the tories for mismanagement? and when are they,

just continuing on that that question the obr revealed a couple of days back that low skilled migrantss is far outweighing the tax take for low earners. so while we do appreciate our doctors and nurses who have come from abroad, the figures say that it's disproportionate . it's disproportionate. >> look, the fact of the matter is that there are lots of reasons why there are pressures on our public services and migration flows is one of those factors. but by all means, certainly not the largest factor. one of the reasons why our public services are so overstretched is because the conservative government have absolutely run them into the ground. if you just think about what's happened since 2015, when the conservatives have been in power on their own, they've slashed public health budgets by 25%. these are public services. these are programs that help people to stop smoking, to help them lose weight, to live healthier lifestyles. you know, to stop there , to help them with to stop there, to help them with their tackle their addictive behaviours. i mean , these are behaviours. i mean, the

and the obr provide transparency to opposition to governments, to journalists, to everybody ahead ofo, to you and your viewers to, to question the labour government. but we are certainly questioning the validity of that . but on the validity of that. but on the pubuc validity of that. but on the public finances, you know , after public finances, you know, after the crisis in ukraine and the energy price crisis and covid, where we spent 400 billion, we've never shied away from the fact that public finances were being strained by the level of debt that we racked up as we supported families and businesses. but we had a very clear plan, for example, to make savings on welfare, to crack down on tax avoidance. labour have not taken those forward. what this is really all about is what they always wanted to do, and that's roll the pitch for tax rises, which will come in the budget. they are now starting to admit that that will harm growth. and i thought this government was all about growth. so that's what we would have done. and we're very concerned by this. labour government's proposals to