the oecd chief economist will join us.es economy looking at 2.9% this year, 2.7% next year and that 2020 2.1%. leaders of the oecd giving a summary of their crystal ball ahead. with us.ay from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ refineeed to nurture and and the institutions that support. >> let's get the bloomberg business flash. the insurer humana may take stakes each other. about acompanies talked variety of joint ventures. last month walgreen's ceo told shouldrg the companies have gotten a insurer for years ago when it's paul was higher. ofa -- theall goan hasof carki shed light on the problems in nissan and another company. a speculation that he was a victim of a coup by enemies at nissan. a whistleblower testifying to their -- european lawmakers about the region's worst money-laundering scandals. he said almost all the money flowing to the estonian branch -- he also said what the intelligence agency was doing during the scandal. on china, november 30 the chart chief, we go asia economics correspondent. does the

there must be better spending on communication in the italy it is very low complexity oecd.n a government mandate. thank you for coming in. we shall let you know what happens today and in the weeks ahead. it is quite important for italy. asian stocks have been sliding this morning after wall street slumped overnight. the falls in the us were driven by a selloff in apple after a profit warning from one of its major suppliers, which exacerbated concerns that demand for iphones is slowing down. while tech stocks were hit hard, other sectors are also this felt the pain. our new york business correspondent michelle fleury gave us the details. some of this was due to a sell—off in the oil. if you look at stocks like exxon mobile, they saw more than one percentage point drop. that its concerns about slowing growth. if you talk about goldman sachs, this stock for its worst loss in many months. this is to do with the scandal concerns in malaysia with 1mdb and who knew what at the bank and how far rocket went. there are concerns about some of the investigations going on. and then you

come close globally and bill and the issue should be addressed to analyze let let let the let the oecd. fun fun gingin hope hoping to mean we are the are the and it is now now s see this is an excellent way possible simply. to twenty twenty one twenty if the if the discussing unions spain it's a resilient k.. six anyway with the national tax tax. very very basic very very for for an agreement. thank you very much i can say that without without a doubt about that because that is. in the sense that you have to change it with. meeting at you. know that i've had times hang out on online like i died. and then. use use that we really have season. because it's not. jan generating only know. most a three three arches and because no structure. will judge judge jeanine. and i'm sure she was shoes made basically for the time. he is a i'm on it whatever. it is it some some in the white house. says his. six thirty one right right they use. i'm saying satan's also face phase because because early in the day. researchers to be here on will not. let him hang haining with with president he said that he

thee down at the bottom of oecd, the 30 rich countries, along with greece and turkey in benefit spendingbut there is something there, so let's get rid of it. medicaid, which goes to the undeserving poor. let's undermine the social peopley, which working just rely on for survival. lavishause we have to gifts on the superrich and ensure the corporations have profits bulging ouout of their eaears. pretext foror the tax s scam was s that it was gog to sharply increase investment. that was pretty outlandish to start with. and the corporations already have just overflowing with profits and wealth. and predictably, did nothing of the sort. those are the domestic programs. then come all of these international horrors that we're talking about. i don't want to suggest that the mainststream democrats are all that better in these respects. somewhat. there is a progressive wave among the sectors of the democratic party that could lead and a much more constructive direction. arethe midterms next week going to have a critical impact , andhow the country goes given the enormous power and wealth of this

look today or 15 years ago so two thirds of the young college educated workforce and the traditional oecd markets india and china will account for half western europe and north america that includes the uk and canada in germany we have to think where it will be distributed more broadly to be more competitive as a place for people to come in part of the goal of the book and what it is we are trying to accomplish and ways we can improve the world as a whole thank you for the opportunity to talk about it. i look forward to the panel. [applause] . >> can you hear me in the back? thank you again for that great presentation that is the main message and one message that i got that we know but that we don't think about was in one particular place. the more italians can go to the place to be more productive but there are also winners and losers were tax reform and when it comes to migration that is positive overall for the country where these people are coming in there seems to be more of a disconnect and you have done a lot of work on migration and in those circumstances and there are some people

in 2000, about two-thirds of the young college educated workforce, so those between 25-34, for the oecd countries, with lookout to 2030 india and china will account for half of those young college graduates. western europe and north america which includes the united states but also the uk and canada and germany and france, that will account for 18%. we have to think of a world where talent is going to be distributed out more broadly and we will have to be evermore competitive and attract us a place for people to come to a both policy and business. part of the goal of the book is to highlight and understand what it is we're trying to accomplish, what we are right now and think about ways that we can approve going forward of use for the work as a whole. so thanks for the opportunity to talk a bit about and i look forward to the panel. [applause] >> can you hear me in the back? good. well, thanks again everyone for coming. thank you for the great presentation. i think it really captures most of any messages. i think one message that i got through in reading it was something that we know bu

he will have an interview with the oecd secretary-general next hour. stay tuned for that. you can find all of the fantastic optionality we use on yourloomberg, g tv on bloomberg. pull up the charts. battle of the charts coming up later on the program. this is bloomberg. ♪ london, i am guy johnson. vonnie: in new york i am vonnie quinn and this is the european close on bloomberg markets. deutscheany has raided bank and a money-laundering investigation in their quote -- and of headquarters is among the places searched. we are joined by our banks of water who joins us live. they share price has dropped. what do we know about this investigation and how serious it could be for deutsche bank? >> we know that the police deployed 170 law enforcement officials that raided six locations including a private home. one suspect was in the raid. the scale of the operation was quite big. hard to say what it means. everything that smells like a legal problem can cause nervousness among deutsche bank investments -- investors because of their past. we do not know how much it will go int

we are with the secretary-general of the organization for the oecd and he has a macro view of what isoing to be going on at the summit here. obviously, the g20 meeting is probably the least important thing happening at the g20 meeting. the most important, president donald trump meeting with xi jinping and talking about trade. we haven't seen a lot of damage in the data yet. selloff quite a bit in the third quarter. is that a canary in the coal mine, or is this may be overblown as an economic issue in the world? rather drastic a impact already. i will give you a fast example. six months ago, in may, we projected that the growth for 2019 was going to be 3.9% or something like that. maybe 4%. global growth, world growth, scratching 4%. , sixst put out last week a projection for 2019, 2020, we will grow 3.5. and 0.5%. 0.4 half of one point. in six months time, i called in my economist to say what happened? well, that is trade tensions. atember trade is now growing 3%. it was already growing at 5% per year. it should be growing at seven point 8%. if you are not sure that you will sell, or

we have been somewhat successful in the g20, in the oecd framework, and in other frameworks in scaling back their work streams. i mention the financial stability board earlier in my remarks. >> thank you guy will get senator merkley, allow him to close out this panel and thank you, gentlemen. >> so i was reading the world bank has some 60 billion of projects in china. i was thinking about that as i seen china evolved from a first trip there, an economy based on bicycles to another trip with a few more ring roads around beijing, and a system choked cars to yet another trip where i witnessed a massive new metro systems and 200-mile per hour train system. should we still be sending development loans to china? >> in my view, no. in the world bank reforms that have been put on the table, the world bank management has committed to this year, they will be winding down graduating china from ibrd lending. that's the part of the world bank that is currently still lending to china. however, the asian development bank still lends and plans to continue lending, and could i think substantially scale

oecd came out with their new outlook growth forecast and brought italy's growth estimate down to 1% forhis year, 0.9% next year due to a weaker jobs ratio. >>> this is the first global automaker to obtain a license in china and the timing is notable. this comes amid fears of a broader slowdown, pull back from the chinese consumer that stuck is up about 1%. guys. >> thank you very much. >>> let's get a news update or sue update, sue herera back at hq. >> good morning, everyone. here's what's happening at this hour investigators believe space heaters are to blame for a deadly fire overnight in maryland it happened at about 1:00 a.m. this morning flames engulfed the home and two people were killed >>> six people were injured this morning in a crash between a texas commuter train and a semi truck. the truck was hauling liquid asphalt. the cause of the crash is under investigation. >>> a man was caught on camera trying to siphon gas from a u-haul truck in oregon, but his plans went up in flames. surveillance video shows the man running away from the scene with his pants on fire. investigator

digital tax seems like it won't take place for a number of years in europe and it might be up to the oecd to push forward the agenda first. if that doesn't happen, europe might come to agreement on a digital tax. listen to the comments he was making about digital taxes >> i hope we can face this, and i hope that we will remain strong and united to face the american administration. because i will be simple and clear, i cannot accept to have google, amazon, facebook paying less taxes, 40 points less taxes than my butcher or my book shop. i cannot accept that either some anything thnations, governments want to explain to the people that they accept google, facebook, apple paying less taxes than smaller companies, good luck for the next european elections. >> i think that was directed at the german finance minister to go after donald trump and to forward the agenda on digital taxes. without german support this interim digital tax will not happen you have a number of different states in europe going after taxes individually it is a problem. if you want to administer taxes individually across b

watch out for new economic forecasts from the oecd.e been hearing, the european commission publishes the budget plans of euro area countries. watch for comments on italy's att reaching e.u. fiscal roz 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. for more insight on what the e.u.'s reports on italy's debt could mean, kevin costello joins us. a headlining have seen just a few minutes ago, actually, in lastampa. saying he may be open to what it positions. we are seeing yields move lower presumably on that report. is this the hope that the markets can take from this? kevin: i think it probably is. he is said before that certain that the spread with german yields may come down, but this seems to be the first time there is a report he may be willing to we lacks a little bit of a stance on the budget itself. the two things that could be affected would be the so-called citizens income, and even the thing heirement age, a has been championing all along. ok, and of course, we are looking to see whether the e.u. could open its deficit procedure against italy on wednesd

the organization for economic cooperation and development, that's the oecd, i like to drop that a lottariffs and higher interest rates could slow economic growth. now, despite that ominous forecast, the solid 70% of americans said they are shopping today, i have even confessed that to my friend jolene kent who is in glendale, arizona, for us. she has her finger on the pulse of how people are feeling and what they're buying. >> yeah, ali, it's been interesting. i know you bought a belt and you made your contribution, but here folks are buying a lot more than just a belt for $20.99. people are forking out money by the hundreds. what they're really seeing here is a more enjoyable shopping experience and here's why. anecdotally experts across the country and here at glendale galleria says it feels quieter than usual but the spending is up because so much in terms of discounts. so, you're seeing that both here at the mall in person and brick and mortar stores and then also seeing it, of course, online. some of those black friday online sales that have been stretched over a week or a couple

the oecd did this, the wto secretary did this and world bank has done this. these are exercises that are an attempt to identify trade restrict did practices in the interest of greater transparency and the interest of hopefully eventually leading to negotiations in various areas putting limits on practices. the fact that aipac is doing this is good, if they can get an agreement to put it out publicly, that's even better. it's a long way from that to accomplishing something in terms of eliminating some of these practices. but i think, what aipac has been good out over the years is successions of small steps that lead to something and i think this would be a good example of that. you will also see the standard rhetoric that comes out of every one of these things about regional integration and the importance of the free-trade agreement for asia-pacific. this has been a goal for 20 years at least, i think were not should -- were not much closer to it now and it's useful if they continue to restate it and maintain commitment that even though the steps towards actua

the oecd did this, the wto secretariat did this.the world bank is than the. >> these are exercises that are attempt to identify trade restrictive practices in the interest of greater transparency and in the interest of hopefully eventually leading to negotiations in various fora that will tend attempt to put e limits on the practices. the fact a apec is doing this. if they can get agreement to put it up publicly that would be even better. there's a long way from that to actually accomplish something in terms of eliminating some of these practices but i think what apec has been good at over the years is successions of small steps that eventually to something and this would be i think this would be a good example of that. you will also see the standard rhetoric that comes out of every one of these things about regional integration as importance of the free trade agreement for the asia-pacific. this has been a goal for 20 years at least. i suspect, i think we are not much closer now than we were in the beginning. i think it is useful t

reflections, he pointed out that covenants come from the middle east and the culture of what he called oecd's. and then he said, and what makes hanaway says luxuriant, large and lasting. one thing only. the wellspring of his heart. and if the wellsprings of faith and freedom go, no talk of freedom and no amount of the constitution will eventually keep freedom flourishing. so certain things are relatively obvious that need to be done as part of this restoration. at the same time as we look at this rubicon moment in the light of history, and you can see the incredible warnings of history. caesar addressed us thought that he created a permanent republic, imperial republic there was. that is why rome has got the title the eternal city. was the system eternal? no. we look at the genius of the american founders. they believe across the board you could create a free society that could stay free forever. never been done, but they believe they have the way. very few americans today could even tell you the system they created to keep it sustainable. and while they neglected it attack to come in no one'

compared, when we compare ourselves to several latin american countries and certainly oecd countries. there's several reasons for that. one of them was a low tax base, and if i'm not mistaken the reform was undertaken by the pena nieto administration early in his administration in the second year. it did raise significantly the income tax and also broadened the base. i can't remember the exact numbers, but the number of persons paying income tax has increasing difficulty. and there was also an effort to close loopholes. and yes, it is important to have a reasonable tax base because if not, it's difficult to address some of the challenges that we have. there's always a debate about what's the best way to tax people and nobody likes taxes but i think if you look at the figures, and they cannot bring them to my mind right now, the percentage of taxes to gdp, i tax basis increase from the past years i think addressing part of your concern. i leave the last one for ambassador wayne. >> thank you. it's an important question but not an easy one to answer. certainly in my years in mexico we t

and studies from the imf and the oecd, recently published in science advances consistently show that more immigration does leave specific on asylum seekers and refugees produces more overall economic growth. that is something that confuse a lot of heterogeneity among countries and among social groups within countries that we have discussed. but the big picture for the effect on the broader economy and thus the potential for redistribution, the potential for job creation, potential for investment and job creation for natives is generally positive for that reason. it is reasonable to expect that this all-out assault unlawful immigration fee is which is very likely what already has substantially decreased migration is likely decrease it even more over the years to come is going to harm the u.s. economy and harm it for a very long time. >> let's take one more question just here and then we're running out of time. thanks. >> on with the workers for the initiative here at brookings. first, thank you for your research and continued that evidence in this topic. my question is linked to the a

the oecd ranks china 59 out of 62 in terms of openness.i says he is going to buy more in the next 15 years. the europeans and u.s. companies unlikely to see any concrete policies out of the speech to address their concerns. >> thank you so much. tom mackenzie in shanghai. the vice president will give the keynote address in singapore. haidi who isgo to standing by. thank you so much for that. our next guest is a china veteran. a little bit of a stumble in the stock market this year. explaining the scale of that challenge is our next guest. gary is a founding partner at the seattle-based venture partners and until recently based out of china. really great to have you here. this trade war is centered around technology and made in china. who is going to emerge victorious? what are the issues we are not talking about? >> i don't think this is a trade war. that is not how i think about it. i also think if i was in the trump administration i would focus on china 2025 as opposed to tariffs. i think the way venture capitalists think is we are not a

by the way, they go back to principles agreed in the oecd in the early '90s and you will find them iny piece of legislation dealing with data privacy is from europe, through to japan, through to latin america. so the gdpr is fully consistent with that. i think what has made people sit up and pay attention, let's be blunt, is the fact there's an enforcement mechanism. if you're found not to be in compliance, you can be fined up to 4% of turnover and this woke a lot of people up to say, oh, wow, maybe we should be paying attention to this. that's been the real catalyst, to be frank. i don't think it's been such a dramatic -- our line, i think it was said to the senate when he testified this week, our line is this is evolution, not revolution. it's a consistent -- what we have done is change the legal nature of the instrument, and my member states who are many ambassador here from eu member states, i'm delighted to see them, will confirm this, we had because there will always be people who feel their data is not being correctly treated. these complaints will be dealt with in the normal w

. >> the oecd came out this morning and revised downward forecast for the global economic growth, not.7 to 3.5 -- maria: you're telling us to go into global stocks. >> because you want to buy ahead as opposed to behind. you don't want to chase returns, if you're a longer-term investor you want to position portfolio for the long term and what's going to happen. the macro trends on international and global can't continue forever and sooner than later they will turn around. the catalyst, by the way, the stocks go down before the euphoria is over, right, they tend to be anticipating as markets are as well. they are looking ahead as well. >> i would be incline to go to pendulum strategy. [laughter] >> but i will say unlike 2000 where there was real divergence, small cap was down. you are not going to get such a reward, one of the problems in the market right now is diversification isn't stopping you from losing money. dagen: you know why that is because of the unprecedented monetary stimulus. >> no, it's because of all the unprecedented number of etf's giving money. i am not going to do li

is when people see on their screens great figures brought in from the us presidency, the imf, the oecdne these days, aggravated by the personality of donald trump himself. nasa scientists are beginning to gather data from mars, after successfully landing a probe on the surface of the red planet. the insight spacecraft‘s descent through the martian atmosphere, lasted just seven minutes — slowing down from six times the speed of a bullet, tojogging pace. relief and joy at mission control. after plunging through the martian atmosphere at six times the speed of a bullet, nasa's insight spacecraft safely planted its feet on the surface of mars. now the science begins. it's going to be a really busy two or three months for us. i am really hoping that the energy and the feeling today is going to carry me through those next few months because it is going to be needed. when we get our first mars quakes we will get a bunch of images over the next few days and it is incredible to be on this mission and say tomorrow when i come onto my shift i will see an image of mars that nobody has seen before.