. >> hello, ohio. >> i love ohio. >> and sizing up the crown jewel of battle grounds with ohio state attorney general mike dewine and former ohio governor ted strickland. plus, the politics of numbers. explaining the jobs report and weighing its impact with moody's analytic chief cheist mark zandi and douglas holtz-akin, and white house correspondent jackie kol linz, and cnn's chief white house correspondent jessica yellin. i'm candy crowley. and this is "state of the union." >>> it was not unanimous, but there was overwhelming consensus among viewers and pundits that mitt romney shined in denver's debate season opener and the president did not. the new yorker magazine summed it up with a cover cartoon of romney debating an empty chair. the captain "mitt stands alone." campaigns are only as good as their last news cycle, so on to danville, kentucky, and thursday night's battle of the number twos. joining me now are philadelphia mayor michael nutter, a long-time friend of joe biden, and republican party chairman -- a confidant of paul ryan. mayor nutter, stand by with me, and i want t

ohio. now, when your running mate is a guy who believes the same thing as the rape mumbling senate candidates richard mourdock and todd akin, not only do you have to ignore press questions about that policy, but you cannot put your running mate in a position where he's maybe going to have to answer questions about that. not with 12 days left. you need to send that guy to alabama. you need to send him to glenn beck ville. paul ryan has been essentially hidden on the only talk to the far right fringe base of the tour. mitt romney, himself, picked up the pace a little bit from yesterday when he had a very slow day. today mr. romney had three separate campaign stops all in ohio. the real story in terms of campaign ambition right now, though, continues to be president obama, himself, who right now is finish up a 48 hour overnight nap on the plane, eight state campaign marathon. >> we are pulling an all-nighter. no sleep. and if you're not going to sleep, you might as well be in vegas. >> that wa

and ohio responded. ohio made voting easier. the state of ohio expanded early voting starting the next year. starting in 2005. every single ohio election since then, including the republican presidential primary this year, ohio has offered this expanded early in-person voting. the new system seems to be working just fine. but now just in time for this election, specifically ohio republicans have been trying to cut early voting back to go back to the old system, the way it was in '04 with the ten-hour lines. a federal court ruled on friday, that if ohio has been able to handle expanded early in-person voting in every election for the past seven years since 005, then ohio republicans cannot stop the counties from using that same system just in time for this election this year. ohio's republican secretary of state today said that he's going to appeal that decision. he's going to appeal it all the way up to the u.s. supreme court. he's so desperate to shut off early voting in this election, to go back to the ten-hour lines from '04,

week in ohio. politically. both candidates are going to be here, and it's going to be a hard fought campaign, but the good news from my perspective is that president obama has maintained a small but a very consistent lead in ohio. i don't know of any poll that has shown the president not leading over the last few months, as a matter of fact. >> do you think it counts for the rise of independence? >> we have a good ground operation. >> what do you think -- >> i'm sorry? >> what do you think accounts for the rise of independents towards the romney campaign? what's going on there? >> i'm not sure there are many true independents. i think people who even refer to themselves as independents typically feel some kind of allegiance to one of the major parties or the other. ohio is a very closely divided state, but ohio's unemployment, as you know, is 7%. the auto industry, which ohioans value greatly and provides a lot of jobs for our people is doing really well, and thanks to the president, and so i think

there is a republican advantage in ohio. ohio is more republican than the nation.nternally, this one democratic statewide office holder, democratic senator share odd brown, all the others are held by republicans. republicans have strong majorities in both houses of the legislature and congressional is 12 to 4, lines are drawn 12 to 4 t may end is up 11-5 because bette sutton may win a district. but it's a-- s so it's a republican state going in. the irony is for mitt romney, is that john kasich who you saw in the piece, the governor, is extolling all these good news that we just heard. and the romney people don't want to hear that because part of their message is we've got the economic key. and it can't have already happened in ohio under barack obama's watch. >> woodruff: let's broaden it out. you said that you were talking to david about the difference between ohio and the rest of the country, what does it look like across the country right know in the campaign? >> you know, i have read so many very confident people over the last 24 hourx totally confident that o

even in ohio.he reality is senator portman , a lot of people in ohio and many people will be voting could not pick him out of the lineup. even though he's our u.s. senator, he's not terribly visible. it might have given romney a marginal bumper. -- bump. maybe it would've been enough to swing it, but i don't think it would have had a big impact. guest: this is where dan and i disagree. i think it would've had a huge impact. ohio has not had anyone on either national ticket since the 1940's. i don't think you could give measured the jolts of enthusiasm and excitement you would've put into grass-roots republican activists, knowing they had one of their own this close to the white house on the national ticket. he could've locked up hamilton county. he easily defeated the lieutenant governor in the senate race. one of the top fund-raisers, he's been around the block in washington a few times and is well known. i think he would've locked up a pivotal southwestern corner of the united states for the romn

ohio, ohio, ohio. it is all about ohio. richard wolf and former ohio governor ted strictland will join me next. and in the rewrite tonight if mitt romney denounces todd akin for talking about legitimate rape, why doesn't he denounce the republican who uses the bible to justify slavery? that's coming up. [ male announcer ] feeling like a shadow of your former self? c'mon, michael! get in the game! [ male announcer ] don't have the hops for hoops with your buddies? lost your appetite for romance? and your mood is on its way down. you might not just be getting older. you might have a treatable condition called low testosterone or low t. millions of men, forty-five or older, may have low t. so talk to your doctor about low t. hey, michael! [ male announcer ] and step out of the shadows. hi! how are you? [ male announcer ] learn more at isitlowt.com. [ laughs ] hey! hi! how are you? i"i'm not in favor of a a$5 trillion tax cut. that's not my plan." mitchell: "the nonpartisan tax policy center concluded that mitt romney's tax pla

you went from dayton, ohio, to marion, ohio. >> if anyone comes to the white house from ohio, they'll get a hershey bar this big. >> pandering to ohio. the race for ohio is going to come down to the margins. mitt romney doesn't have to win these big democratic counties. he just has to hold down the president's score. george w. bush won the race in 2004 by limiting kerry's gain. something he couldn't do to barack obama in 2008. look at three of the largest counties in the state. kerry won by 227,000 votes. in 2008, fewer people voted but president obama added to his margin. he won by 30,000 more votes. in lucas county, in 2008 obama won the county by nearly 70,000 votes. and then of course there's franklin county which includes the capital of columbus. one of the faster growing parts of the state. in 2004, john kerry won it by just 48,000 votes. four years later, president obama more than doubled that total. he won by 116,000 votes. that's one way to watch this is on the margins. the test. does he maintain those margins? add to them? the challenge for mitt romney, can he do with a bush

in ohio?maybe that's just the way they are. >> trying to win. >> any way possible. >> looks desperate to me. >> so let's talk about nationally a new poll that's out released by "the new york times." >> the poll shows a virtual dead heat between the two candidates. obama leads romney by just one point, 48%-47% among likely voters nationwide. president obama still holds a comfortable lead among women, and mitt romney enjoys an almost identical advantage with men. among independent voters, romney now enjoys a 12-point lead, 51%-39%. >> why is that? john heilemann, why is the president losing independent voters by double digits? what's inside that number? i mean, it's been breaking that way. is it obamacare? what is it? what is it? >> the stats are where the swing is. independent voters -- there's a question about independent voters and the extent to which at any given set of independent voters, where they lean. there's no question that independent voters right now, as currently constitute in the

it's ohio today. it was supposed to be virginia today, but he moved all of those events to ohio because of the storm. look where he's spending monday. it's the midwest. it's where they feel they have to pick off a couple states. it's not just ohio. it's ohio plus something else. >> as i talked to the romney campaign, they were emphasizing this momentum. they feel the debates gave him a second look to carry him through election day. obama folks, look at the electoral map map. we could be in for quite a finish if they are both right. >> they are both right. we talked the popular vote. polling out today, if you look at the president's lead for instance on the west coast in california, the lead has been cut in half. i have done back to the envelope map. romney makes up 6 million, 7 million, 8 million votes. he could pick up a bunch of votes in the non-battleground states. go to the battleground. i'll show how easy it is. if you take today's polls, the president is winning in virginia. wisconsin is on the

ohio, ohio, ohio. it is all about ohio. richard wolf and former ohio governor ted strictland will join me next. and in the rewrite tonight if mitt romney denounces todd akin for talking about legitimate rape, why doesn't he denounce the republican who uses the bible to justify slavery? that's coming up. mike rowe here at a ford tell me fiona, who's having a big tire event? your ford dealer. who has 11 major brands to choose from? your ford dealer. who's offering a rebate? your ford dealer. who has the low price tire guarantee... affording peace of mind to anyone who might be in the market for a new set of tires? your ford dealer. i'm beginning to sense a pattern. buy four select tires, get a $60 rebate. use the ford service credit credit card, get $60 more. that's up to $120. where did you get that sweater vest? your ford dealer. >>> mitt romney is trying to close the gender gap before the election, but meryl streep is trying to stop him. and mitt romney is now afraid of answering questions from kids. the kids on nickelodeo

>> reverend, he's going to win ohio, and he will win ohio big. here in the northern part of ohio, the recovery in the auto industry, the hiring that's happening in the steel industry, the work that's happening in energy exploration and natural gas, driving steel production, all the investment we have seen in manufacturing, this president has made a big difference across ohio. if he can a congress that worked with him -- >> so you believe the president will win big. >> i believe he will win big. i certainly do. you can feel it when you're with the people. they're disgusted with the ads. people are sick of what's been happening, they know how hard he's working. they respect governor romney, but they believe that for ohio, president obama has made the largest difference. he's taken us forward from the bush years. we don't want to go back to the policies that got us to this point in the first place. when mitt romney said he wanted detroit to go bankrupt, let the auto industry go bankrupt, our people heard that. one of eight jobs in ohio are connected

and the guy says, they're somewhere in ohio. take i-75 north. as you know, everybody is in ohio. i want to ask you the direct question, governor, you've got e 7% unemployment. it's better than the national average. who deserves credit for that? is it the president? is it you as the republican governor? or neither one of you? >> you know, david, it's probably the job creators, we're up 112,000 jobs, the last four years, we were down 4,000 jobs. how did we get there? we've made ohio safe for business expansion and business attraction. we balanced our budget. we're running a half a billion dollars in the rainy day fund. we've reduced taxes and our regulators are people who use common sense. so when you do all of that in a state that's within 600 miles of 60% of the country and great diversity among its people, we've just really kind of cleared the way for people to feel confident that they can invest here. you know, i i'm interested in this auto debate.nt because you know of the 112,000 jobs that were created, according to the bureau of labor statistics, you know in america today, t

not ohio. ohio is different. why does romney think he can win ohio and catch up? the demographic group that mitt romney performs best with is white men. the demographic group he's performing poorly in ohio is white men. auto workers in toledo, akron, northwest part of the state. >> i think the reason for that is a, what rachel mentioned, the fight over union rights. a lot of counties that voted for kasich in the election swung overwhelmingly in favor of the unions in the referendum. secondly again the auto rescue. which makes a big difference in that quadrant you talked about. which is white working-class voters. and governor kasich dissed michigan, which i suppose is what you do when you're governor of ohio. i was up there this week. michigan has had one of the biggest drops in unemployment. when obama took office, michigan was a mess because of the auto industry. they've had a huge drop of unemployment. even though they a little bit higher now than michigan. and i was struck that governor kasich suggested that everybody was for the auto rescue. no, they weren't.

what's your sense in ohio?> my sense in ohio, i felt very confident that sherrod is in a very good position. i think the president is in a good position. i think we can take nothing for granted and have to run through that finish line and get out the vote. people are voting early and the democrats just have to stay focused and i think we're going to have a good result. >> the republicans clearly have attacked public education. what are the chances of prop 32 getting money into public education in california? are you confident it will pass? >> you mean prop 30? >> yes. >> yeah. i do believe -- prop 30 has been endorsed by "the l.a. times." it is a perfectly reasonable investment that our least vulnerable citizens need to do to invest in our most vulnerable citizens. i'm confident it will pass. but again, we need turnout there. we need turnout in michigan. i'm up here campaigning for bridgette mary mccormick running for state supreme court.

at least in the southwest ohio area.n other parts of the state as well that there has been a higher number than in 2008. >> yeah. >> and i'm not sure what that means in terms of who is turning out the vote. you see both candidates urging their supporters to vote early, and then drag somebody else to the polls as well. >> and craig, that actually also is we had weekend voting back in 2008 as compared to this time. and we're actually seeing larger turnout of early voters this time around than we did four years ago. >> david, my understanding is there was a survey and found that nearly one in five respondents have already voted in ohio, and that president obama is winning them by a 63% to 37% margin. that's according to the nbc journal marist poll. if those numbers are true, and we have no reason to believe they're not, what might that tell us what we might see on the first tuesday in november in the buckeye state? >> well, i think that's not to discredit any sort of poll, but i think that is probably a little skewed. >> ok

ohio state, ohio university, kent state, bowling green.o sort of draw in these folks and since early vote has started, they can just bus students and young people who come to these rallies over to early voting locations in these counties. so obama has sort of done that while leaving the campaign appearances and sort of blue collar areas to people like bill clinton and joe biden. but young people, they aren't watching tv, they aren't consuming media in the same way that older voters are. only somewhere between 24% and 28% of young people, according to pew, watched your traditional television. so the campaigns are targeting them digitally. social is big in this election for persuasion. they want to put out infographics people can share on facebook and twitter. at the end of the day it comes down to traditional get out the vote efforts which are already under way. early voting started in iowa, for instance, on september 27th so people are already voting. >> you're making me feel very old because i didn't understand some of the things you ment

ohio state, ohio university, kent state, bowling green. to sort of draw in these folks and since early vote has started, they can just bus students and young people who come to these rallies over to early voting locations in these counties. so obama has sort of done that while leaving the campaign appearances and sort of blue collar areas to people like bill clinton and joe biden. but young people, they aren't watching tv, they aren't consuming media in the same way that older voters are. only somewhere between 24% and 28% of young people, according to pew, watched your traditional television. so the campaigns are targeting them digitally. social is big in this election for persuasion. so obama has sort of done that while leaving the campaign appearances and sort of blue collar areas to people like bill clinton and joe biden. but young people, they aren't watching tv, they aren't consuming media in the same way that older voters are. only somewhere between 24% and 28% of young people, according to pew, watched your traditional television.