oil production over the years, it is increasing by a billion barrels a oil. all expectations are it will continue to do that. on the other side, what you also see is that u.s. producers are becoming more and more efficient and, of course, increasing their efficiency by almost 20% every year or every year and a half. even though they'll be hurt if oil prices come down, if you just wait long enough, the efficiency gains in production will, in fact, offset some of the decline, but that will take time. >> picking up on what tyler just said, there was a time when opec called all the shots and they have a big meeting on thanksgiving day, actually. is there some decision that they can make whether to cut production or any other move that you can make that really will influence the prices of oil. >> that's exactly correct. right now opec has a major decision to make. all indications suggest that opec is probably producing a little over a million barrels more than the world actually needs right now. to the extent that opec can, with cooperation from opec members cut t

domestic oil.s discouraged domestic production and left us more dependent on imports. then in december 1978, iran, racked by political upheaval curtailed production of crude oil. cut off from this major source, oil prices to the united states again more than doubled. frustrated consumers were reacquainted with the energy crisis as long gas lines reappeared. oil suppliers put pressure on the government to decontrol gas and oil. mr. schlesinger, what turned this around and made decontrol acceptable? first, there was the opportunity created by the fall of the shah. public concern was rising when production ended in iran. governmental concern was rising even more rapidly. alarm ultimately became more than alarm-- almost panic in the industry-- to acquire additional supplies. some action had to be taken by the government. by june of 1979, president jimmy carter announced the gradual phaseout of controls on domestic oil. once controls were lifted, did the wildcatters jump out to start drilling again? yes

if oil becomes too cheap. where do you come down on that? >> i agree. >> those guys who are making $100,000 a year with a high school diploma, and flying out to places in wi lliston, they want that to happen as well. will it be the same? >> the north dakota did a study of this exact question and came up the best fields in the balkans will remain $28 a barrel, and higher cost fields will be at production at $42 a barrel. that does not say what you would do if you were drilling today. these are existing wells that have largely been because they come on so fast and crash downward have largely been depreciated through the tax code. >> what about new production, will it punch a hole in the ground. >> no, new production you're certainly going to cut back on. >> which has consequences with state revenues, but also for the united states treasury, professor? >> yes, ultimately it depends on, again, and i keep coming back to this. it's growth-related. all of this is growth-driven. yes, the u.s. treasury is going to take

expertise ons in oil and other kinds of oil prices. she brings the background that includes positions with the international finance, the u.s. albrights, the stonebridge group. this is quite a collection of achievements. she has contributed to a that includes npr, bloomberg, and a host of others. masters degree from john hopkins. will pomerantz is the director of the canon institute. he will him -- he will explore the impact prices in the russian federation. he practiced law in moscow for several years. there are no reports of corruption in moscow, so this must have been a light practice. at the kennan institute, he directs the kennan institute rule of law program. he has written on russian law in a number of active journals. law degree and a phd from the university of london. your, if you would raise -- david is a senior scholar at the wilson center. he is an active part of the middle east program. years for the35 washington post. addition to the middle east, he spent time in southern europe and in africa and went on to focus on natio

shale oil production.is shrinking and that is important to note when looking at the consequences of cheaper oil. that's according to josh snare, he's the u.s. oil correspondent for reuters who joins me now. shale might be part of the problem for once opec has real competition in terms of marginal oil it's not just a matter of opec turning down the tabs and knowing that oil prices will go up. we have a world where there are other players who can produce oil, and keep the price of oil low. >> absolutely. but shale production tends to cost more than what it costs to produce oil in saudi arabia. so love fracking or hate it, there's been an absolute revolution in oil production in the u.s., millions of barrels per day increase over the last three or four years, that costs more to produce. the saudis may be saying, hey, you know, welcome to shale producers, but i don't want to seed so much market share. i need market for my own oil. >> so the truth is, if you are drilling in saudi arabia, which is very similar t

the oil smuggling is different. that is not something that we've seen terrorist organizations doing in the past, but getting paid, you know. >> contraband. >> for contraband, that's been around for quite awhile. >> let's talk about taxes. in some places we heard that they're collecting taxes. are these real taxes? >> oh, it's like the mafia collecting protection money. they are forcing people often at gunpoint to pay up at the risk of being shot if they don't. it is not taxes in the sense that it's a legitimate government collects tax. >> are you concerned? we've had had some tell us that they're more pleased with the governance that isil provides than what they had before. >> what we're see something just the opposite. there have been reports coming out recently proving this point. isil comes in and says, you know, we're like, you know, a new type of terrorist organization. we're not going to just force you to heed your ways. we'll try to deliver services. the reality is quite the opposite. if you look at mosul tod

is awash in oil. and also, too, there's a realization that, okay, europe is going to do qe next year and the dollar's probably going to be strong. all three of those factors kind of combined all at once to just really hammer crude. >> meg green, give us your take here as people are voting live right now, same question. is the worst over for the stock market here? >> you know, i don't know what the worst is but i know that volatility is here. every time when they stopped, you know, buying bonds when qe stopped last year when they were threatening the market volatility was horrendous. so now we know they're ending this month and i hope they do. europe needs to start giving us a little juice over there. that's the problem. and oil, you don't have opec agreeing. they're all just floundering out the oil they can. russia is producing. so, you know, everybody's on the same path. that makes lower prices. it's supply and demand and there's tons of supply around. but the markets, you know, i like small caps her

with oil's decline, oil was $30 a barrel ten years ago. we are hardly cheap with oil. we are cheaper. what are the best energy stocks for your portfolio right now? let's bring in skip ailsworth. what say you? >> well, certainly we have had quite a correction in the energy sector the last couple of weeks. i think one thing i point out this lesson demand is really a noise level decrease. our daily consumption is in the low 94, 95 million barrels a day. 200,000 barrels is less than 1%. it is indicative that demand is softening. and many reasons for that. and in our country we are kind of undergoing an oil revolution much like with natural gas a couple of years ago. we are finding more oil and producing more oil than we have and coupled with the lower demand world wide hence the prices have fallen. so that fairly simple straightforward supply and demand situation. >> i am hoping to do a little myth busting. a number of headlines have been scaring people. the chief economist claiming u.s. shale production needs at least $80 in brent a barrel to be profitable. is it possible

let's get on to oil. shell presented or earnings that beat estimates despite lower oil prices. so much to talk about when it comes to oil price. talk to me about shell. falling.tion is capital investment is falling. what they have managed to do is take some costs out and started up new fields, particularly deep water fields. these are fields in nigeria, gulf of mexico, malaysia. they are adding new production that is offsetting some of the declines in more mature areas. they are higher-margin barrels which is helping them out. >> talk to me about the price of oil, which is one of the unknowns. some people are seeing thickets he a crash from this point because there is too much oil out there. >> where is the demand going to come from? china is probably not going to happen. china's economy is not going to me central government forecasts for this year. if it is not going to be some it is not demanded, going to be supplied. you look for the marginal producer, u.s. oil for the canadians. -- or the canadians. have we seen any production cuts? it certainly does not look like it. the p

oil patch.t is -- i will put that down in the third or fourth level. >> got it. >> as to the saudi's motives. >> you always make it much clearer for us. pleasure to talk to you as always. the founder of the schork report. >> thank you. >>> all right, t -minus three weeks until election day and candidates on both sides of the aisle have been touting the state america's economy the good, bad, and ugly in order to earn your votes, kevin the director economic policy studies at conservative think tank american institute. he says lower oil prices could spell trouble for the democratic party. join joining me from washington the. typically if gas goes down 10 cents a gallon really cross the country and if it keeps going down, usually there is a bits of a lag between the price of oil and gasoline, isn't that good for the party running the white house? >> right, well these things can go both ways, so if we get a big increase in supply, then the price can go down if and that can lower gas prices and make p

there's oil. >> the oil flowed down the street through a drainage ditch and emptied into a marshy area. the heavy crude had come from alberta, canada, thousands of miles away. >> what are the booms for? >> they are to soak in the oil. they are supposed to -- >> literally? >> yeah. literally -- >> that's what they're for? >> they're supposed to repel water and soak in oil. >> steyer had come to mayflower to gather ammunition for what may be the biggest fight of his life -- trying to stop the keystone pipeline from being built. steyer worries more leaks like this one in mayflower could happen. the proposed keystone pipeline would stretch from the canadian border across the u.s., and connect to existing pipelines that carry oil to refineries on the gulf. steyer says the oil would be sent directly to the international market. >> it is not going to the united states. what the true argument is, it's going to be more oil not from the middle east, that is true, but doesn't mean it's more oil for the united states. it just means there is more oil not from the middle east in the world market. >>

. ♪ >>> the price of oil is falling thanks in part to the u.s.racking boom, helping americans pay less to fill up at the pump. an expert says the good times will not last, predicting $200 plus a barrel >>> plus, russia's president vladimir putin speaks out. 10 years in gaol, will it quieten mikhail khodorkovsky. children in poverty, only romania is worse than the united states in developed nations. how is that possible in the world's richest country. i'm jen rogers in for ali velshi, and this is "real money". >>> this is "real money", and you are the most important part of the show. tell me what's on your mind by tweeting at ali velshi, and facebook.com/ali velshi. america's oil boom is growing prices for a loop, helping to push them down. there's more energy online from north dakota, texas and others. according to the latest data, the united states is turning into the top producer of oil products, beating out the big wigs saudi arabia and russia. when the price of oil comes down, gasoline usually follows suit. given american's love affair with t

not oversupply of oil. not less demand and if that is true, as soon as the forced liquidations end the price should be able to start bouncing back. but before you draw conclusions don't forget we have a top oil man and the major gas man coming up and they may not be on the same page when it comes to the falling price of crude. matthew in texas. >> caller: hey. thanks for having me. two stocks to ask you about. conoco phillips and phillips 66. they have been taking a beaten since summer highs. and i usually hold on and ride things out. but the next 12 months don't look good at all for the energy sector at all. so i'm thinking about selling out and just buying back in at a later date when it finally bottoms out and putting it into a different sector. >> i'm not going to tell you that is wrong. because conoco phillips only yields about four and change. and that's not stopped any of the major oils. going through 6%. conoco could certainly do that. phillips 66 the refiners, margins getting you. they aren't bad b

the oil service index down 2%, take a look at oil.ght, you are right about your discussions. models go in at $80, when below $80 you make a different kind of trade i'm think you're absolutely right to point out, lower gasoline is a great news for the united states. remember the oil shale bloom has been a boon to jobs in the united states and to the extent when below $80, it might impact viability of the shale plays. certainly plays into this here, may affect jobs here. citi had a good story two weeks ago, analyst report talked about the full cycle cost of shale. drill a new oil drill, the coastal cost gets marginal in the $70 to $80 range. definitely some of the plays, new play, when drill a new well might be marginally less feasible and impact jobs. that's one of the reasons we're seeing a concern. but of course lower oil is good on the gasoline side. effect on the big names. look at oxy, conoco, exxon, that's ten points on the dow for exxon mobil. osx down 2%, as i mentioned but halliburtons and schlumbergers hit more because they'r

oil, inflation-adjusted oil. support seen in another time and place, 10 years ago. the prize is not looking so good. with us with rbc capital markets. to further this discussion, what does 80? dollar oil mean for north dakota? >> the conspiracy theory means that the saudis are letting it go to bankrupt shale. that is going to be a challenge like saudies arabia. if this continues, that will really put pressure on saudi in two years to three years. the notion that they could drive down the price and wait this out, it would take 18 months to 24 months to really stop this. that is why i don't think this is -- >> you are rereading daniel juergen's book. 86 waswas like this -- like this. >> 1986. >> the difference in 1986, the saudis and opec came out saying we are fighting for market share. this time, we have whispers. we had the saudis not making a lot of statements. >> they are producing 200,000 barrels more now than they were in the middle of the summer. >> the difference, they are producing 200,000 more now and sa

they all use oil. they burn gasoline to get their products to market and their products are bought even if the economy gets weaker. in the meantime their dividends exceed the coupons on bonds which means they're superior bond market equivalents because they yield more and in the case of procter & gamble management is slaughtering duracell to make you even more money. that's not the same old proctor. then a second group of buyers the skies are more bullish. they think the lower price of gasoline will fall right to your bottom line and the bottom line of industries economically sensitive, namely the airline which is are doing quite well with cheaper jet fuel as we learned last week when we saw their earnings. their profits should be larger as the biggest costs goes down. the big variable costs, make sense right? united parcel and fed ex. have you seen those? under this theory their numbers are going to be and their stocks are furiously breaking out and that's right. now the real risk takers believe that

if we get anything above $70 i think the oil industry will be a lot better with $70 oil than $80 oilse the backlash from very high oil prices is that capital spending will go into projects that are really not economic at lower oil prices. david: fadel, forgive me for interrupting, we don't have much time. got to ask you this question. why then are the saudis pumping more oil as the price is going down? one would expect them to pull back a little bit, they're pulling back a tiny bit but they're still pumping a lot of oil. are they trying to kill the u.s. oil fracking? >> exactlily not. absolutely not. david: what is it, china and russia. >> russia and iran will two countries will likely take market share from saudi arabia longer term and there is proxy war between saudi arabia and iran going on for the last two years. so saudi arabia will use everything to basically contain the iranian, you know, spread of power into this part of the world. and obviously russia too. cheryl: fadel gheit from oppenheimer, always great to talk to you about this topic, thank you for being with us. david:

starts to export the oil and put it onto the international market, buyers will flock to cheaper oil, crude oil prices will go up, so exporting may not be the way to go. cheaper gas prices are a bright spot for consumers, something real they can hold onto. triple a say we could see the numbers drop and that gas stations are already selling gas for less than three bucks now. >>> our market monitor tonight has energy picks, he says the direct beneficiary picks of the renaissance, his company specializes in energy investments, rob, good to have you with us. tell me how worried if at all you are about the decline in oil prices and the possibility that there may indeed be a sort of price war that could affect the profitability of some of these american drillers, particularly the shale drillers that have made money as oil has rested mostly above 100 bucks a barrel. >> yes, we see the prices decline off the summer highs, the stocks coming down with them. that is a great thing for the u.s. consumers, the gasoline prices have fell as well. boosting the economy. specific to the oil stocks thems

we don't need to go down every time oil goes down or up every time oil goes up. it's the middle of earnings season. let's put oil on the back burner and focus on earnings. if you're going to invest in a name if that company is coming out with solid earnings and growth forecast, and you can buy it like the airlines at a much lower price because oil has gone from 104 down to 79, do it. >> stef, i still feel like i'm trying to find my answer. >> you just got it. >> that was one answer. >> i think you have to figure out why is oil going down. demand or supply. i think it's a little bit of both. the u.s. shale revolution -- >> if it's demand the answer is no. stocks might have a problem. >> i think you have to -- first figure out why is it going down. it is a little bit of both supply and demand. on the demand side and i think you to look at europe and i think you have to look at china, the economic data. >> the data has softened recently and that has exacerbated the problems that we're having in the united states where we are actually producing huge quantities at thi

oil prices are important to us. any major oil company.n the context of the reform process we have embarked on in mexico, the short-term impact of prices will not divert us from taking long-term decisions. developmentosts of is around $22 per barrel. our projects are profitable at current levels, as we speak. therefore, developing shallow water or onshore fields continues to be our plan. including, as well as you have mentioned, deep water projects at current levels. are stemming from energy reform and look interesting. we will pursue them. >> good morning. it is guy johnson as well. what is your expectation going forward for the oil price? it seems to have caught many by surprise, the drop we have seen recently. didn't catch you by surprise and what do you expect from here? is an important participant in the market. we've been monitoring the price. we are in the business for the long term. as i was mentioning, the projections of the oil price will not divert us from taking this long-term decision. our view is that demand will take up. asi

this oil needs -- company needs oil higher and has leverage that you have to worry about.idn't think oil will get down them. you can't get it down into the 70s and still feel good about sand ridge energy. jordan in new york. >> hey, jim. very, very big supporter of your show. >> thank you. >> calling about kite pharma. what do you think? >> it's okay. but you're getting big discounts for good companies. this stock almost always goes down when it reports. they have a lot in the pipe. i would rather have sell gene. fran. >> caller: what do you think about emes? >> no. we have gotten away from the sand stocks. we are not going back. we took a look, made a lot of money in emerge energy and said ka ching, ka ching, let's not be greedy. now raymond in texas. >> hey, jim bo. how's it going? >> all right. how are you? >> caller: doing well. what do you think of abr? yield 7.5%. i bought it on the way down. >> it's okay. these are kind of mezzanine, don't know what they own situations. i've got enough problems owning really good companies like blackstone. they have a great record t

oil demand forecast. is this a temporary drop or the beginning of a further price crash? >>> calls for the u.s. to impose travel bans from certain african nations starting to increase but how difficult would something like that to be karioth? how would it impact other travelers? we talk to a former united airlines captain coming right up. ♪ so ally bank really has no hidden fees on savings accounts? that's right. it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates. hard it can be...how ...to breathe with copd? it can feel like this. copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. spiriva is a once-daily inhaled... ...copd maintenance treatment... ...that helps open my airways for a full 24 hours. you know, spiriva helps me breathe easier. spiriva handihaler tiotropium bromide inhalation powder does not replace rescue inhalers for sudden symptoms. tell your doctor if you have kidney problems, glaucoma, trouble urina

oil stocks versus oil.n you see oil ripping, this is a name you want to be in. >> electronic arts moving higher. big beat. >> these guys guided 50 cents. they came in at 73. the move in mobile gaming and console sales are what's driving this. this stock is effectively doubled. it will trade up to close to 40 bucks in the afterhours. i guess now it's pulled back a bit. if you look at 98 times earnings, i don't know that you need to chase this one. >> still ahead, oil down 17% so far this year but could a bear market in oil mean a bull market for equities? that's next. and now you can get some "fast money" everywhere, on your phone, laptop, ipad. log into cnbc.com/livetv. you will need to input your cable provider information to get that access but that's a small price to pay to get "fast money" everywhere you go. cable provider information to cute little guy, huh? this guy could take down your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking p

even more oil. in the years to come -- david: i understand that, but, john, let's move on because i don't much time. if they continue to do that, at what price, if the price of oil continues to go down because saudis continue to pump and we get it from fracking, this other technology, at what price point does it become uneconomical, unprofitable for our drillers to keep drilling in the more expensive way? >> it varies by reservoir. really hard to say but i would say, if we start seeing pricesle drilling shut in in the u.s. david: final question, john. it is the same question we're asking our viewers, sometimes lower oil prices are good sign for the economy. sometimes they're a danger sign or warning sign for the economy. what do you think it is now? >> i think it is in between. the reap i say that is, demand is down. supply is hope, but supply is up because of new fines, not because of lack of demand. in other words, the relationship is just a little bit off right now. it is not going to stay that w

comparing oil to whale oil, which is obviously, you know, it's nowhere now.more shocking prediction. you're basically saying that oil will be completely replaced at one point by another energy source. >> if what lockheed martin has reported, and it was reported in a large number of areas, but nobody seems to be pick it up. i can't imagine that lockheed martin's people have lied. if lockheed martin has a fusion reactor that is going to be commercially operable within ten years, that takes care of energy supplies for the world. suddenly it makes fossil fuel absolutely unimportant. could lockheed martin have lied? could all of the reports have been fallacious? it's possible. have i my doubts as to whether that's true or not. we'll see. but i'm surprised that that has not gotten any coverage. and right now we have to say with 245 days of crude oil in the spr, why the obama administration has not released some. and i have to suspect that they probably shall. that alone will take $15 off of crude oil in a very short span of time. so i'm sorry, but crude oil, its fu

what is the most extensive barrel of oil that we need on the global oil market?hat is the question you have to ask. traditional you was sort of say maybe some of the canadian oilsands, maybe the ultra deep water off the coast of brazil. to bring that oil to market is quite expensive, and if you the right prices, you will not develop those resources, so it is not a question of -- well, what can the cheapest player in the market produce for? it is a question of -- what is the marginal cost of the oil that would come off the market, and that is what will impact the price. host: steve, you are on the air with rob barnett. caller: i'm kind of curious as to what these oil cubbies are going to do it about 20 years and we start running on a fusion reactor, running on the really -- we are virtually never going to run out of energy, and it is completely nonpolluting. i did a little study with the hyper theory on company. if we put three in the center of manassas, the access would be $20 a month, and running wires and maintenance going to that, in between the metamorphosis

let's get back to our oil and gas story. oil at 82.82 as we speak.still wanted those big rigs. i bet you it now. >> down $0.50 a gallon or so. filling up at the flying j down here. you are absolutely right. as you reported earlier, $2.10 for retail gas. 3.634 delta diesel. that is good for everyone. stuart: i know we will see headlines in usa today or something. i do not believe a word of this for one second. do you? if you do look at the numbers, if we are paying $0.50 less a gallon for gas, do the math on it. stuart: a lot of those operations, they barely get squeezed when you have diesel at $4 a gallon. i know some of them. >> there is a whole load of it right now. it is one of the people you are talking about right there. don: to do you have one full tank a week? >> i have to cars. about a tank for a week. stuart: chief gas and cheap diesel is good news. stuart: it could be a game changer. we will deal with this after the break. ♪ 3rd and 3. 58 seconds on the clock, what am i thinking about? foreign markets. asian debt that recognizes the shift i

right now oil in the u.s. is about 80, $81 a barrel, and the energy information administration, which looks at this stuff, has said that only 4% of the wells in the u.s. are not profitable at $80 a barrel. most of the firms that have gone in here are going to keep drilling, of courses, because they sunk a lot of costs in the ground to produce the oil. if question is if we go to $75 a barrel, or even lower, what would that mean for the profitability of these wells? already we're beginning to level some of these firms are going to continue to drill but may curb their investment plans for next year, you know, when your profits failure going to try to cut your costs and engage in more saving. and so that's the question right now for the u.s. and most economists thing this is a clear benefit for the u.s. nobody is suggesting that a drop in gas prices is going to harm the economy. but i think what's different this time is that it's not as across the board a positive. there are some losers this time, even though most

we get the fact china is using more oil but not as much as we thought it would, hence why oil keeps going but semiconductors? heaven forbid, did you see that today? analog devices, my kron and cyber semiand everything in between. that has been an area of strength in this market. it was unscathed by the rolling bear markets and commodities and machinery companies and oil and gas businesses and vast of industrials, involving chemicals and paper and electronics and automobiles. suddenly with one vicious preannouncement, the entire group is in tatters because it's out of china. the federal reserve acknowledge the the strong dollar could slow the economy but that breath taking bear market occurred -- and therefore wasn't in the midst. we also know the incredibly responsible head of the european central bank is doing he can to pull europe from the brink of recession. until today the chinese leadership and angela merkel seem complacent in the totally negative turn. their acknowledgement of weakness is worth acknowledging and led to a nice rally this morning even as we ultimately gave up the gain

take a look at oil since june.have tumbled more than 20% since mid-june, but instead of cutting back on production to reduce supplies, which is what opec normally does, the biggest producers keep pumping more oil. oil prices could drop below $80 a barrel, before producers feel enough pressure to close the spigot. that's the thing you have to worry about it. it may actually be a wolf in sheep's clothing. falling oil prices are exposing some major strains in a group that is supposed to work together to keep prices steady. i'm talking about opec. it's biggest member, saudi arabia is not responding to lower prices by cutting production. and that's not sitting well with other opec members who are busy not making as much money as they could be. but as duarte geraldino reports, opec's discord could spell good news for american drivers. >> reporter: monday the national average price was near its lowest level in part because the price of oil is down. fuelling that drop are several factors, more supply caused by u.s. oil pro

>> oil. >> they have oil. >> oil. >> forecast. >> or natural gas.the way, which is interesting because chesapeake went up big when they sold those properties. >> chesapeake, the largest gainer on the s&p today. >> but this is what the market looks like when there's no ebola news. and there's no russia news. this is what it looks like. >> what do you mean by there's no ebola news? we're still getting ebola news. >> okay, no really terrible today. >> not like yesterday's terrible ebola news. >> the government was out there, they were saying some things. maybe somebody feels reassured. i think we all know here that if we got bad ebola news in the next hour and a half, the market would reverse. it's very event driven. i hear -- i read through what putin has been saying. and i think that he's basically saying, listen, i'm going to cut the natural gas off. that would be recession. so we've got a little break. in the negative action today. and it allows you to buy snap-on tool or united health. allows you to take a hard look at hca and decide the quarter w

what about oil? crude oil testing $80 a barrel again today. let's get over to the n ymex hee in new york city. i understand you took money from dom chu on the golf course yesterday. >> i did, actually. but you know, windy in the back half and we're even. for now. but let's stick to oil prices not my golf game for a moment. another roller coaster by all accounts and an intraday low of before we bounced back up. we closed at $81 even and down just one penny. goldman is saying that we could see oil prices down to $75 in 2015 and traders saying this is possible but we're going to trade the tight ranges based on the technicals until we get there. of course, this close under 80 is really paramount. we couldn't do it today. technically that's important. we haven't closed under 80 in 2 years or so. our bob is down to four-year lows and looking at $3.08 a gallon is the national average. losing 18 cents in 2 weeks. traders saying they think the prices will go lower and the national average to probably under $3 and means that people are saving $50 at the

can oil trade in the 70s? the ceo of continental resources, the largest player in the shale didn't exactly rule out more down side, but he doesn't expect oil to stay down. listen. >> are we in a situation where we could see $60 oil? >> no. i don't believe it, in pacfact, believe oil will be back at $90 before we know it. >> the biggest liquefied oil in america ruled it in. >> some companies are clearly concerned that the price of oil could go dramatically lower here. >> i think it could. >> you do? >> yes. >> really? >> yes. >> do you think it can go to 70? >> yes. maybe even lower. >> dr. doom of oil. oh, boy, we could split the difference with $81 today. let's put it this way. the charts tell us the smallest decline is in the cards. carly garner, the technician who told me everything would any higher said we would bottom at 77. none of that reassuring although he thinks it's gone right back. here's the thing. much of the additional oil we're expected to produce will be cut back in this country because by flo

>>> all right, so why is oil lowering so much, there is a concern for investors who own oil-related shares. here is the founding partner with again capital, you again? >> back. >> nice to have you here. very simply stated why are prices falling as much as they are, as fast as they are? >> it is a one-two punch, tyler, part of it is the slowing economy in europe where the demand for oil is key. the wheels are coming off opec, there is a battle for market share, they're looking at the abyss. we'll keep pumping and fighting for market share, this is the saudis and kuwaitis, saying this. >> in the past they might have cut production? >> in the past, just last year the saudis cut production about a million barrels a day. they're not doing it yet, i think because they want to send a warning to russia and also what they're doing in syria. the shale miracle, what we have been experiencing, a big part of this. and the saudis are drawing a line in the tar sand saying you know what? we can produce much cheaper than you, let's see how long you can old on. >> so john, you're on record saying you may se

oil prices.ill have much more on this. >> and that brings us to our twitter question of the day. we asked you all -- is opec still relevant? here are some of the answers. yes, let opec drop production and you will think it is october 1973 all over again. saudi arabia has not done anything and they have remained silent. next answer, still relevant, but with a limited lifespan. yes, opec has- not figured out that $86 is the new floor. is this the new floor? >> let's go quickly to ed morse, not optimistic on the price of oil. >> no, he think that is the mid $70's. >> that one area of support. thank you so much. tobias levkovich with us from citigroup. futures up 10, dow futures up 79, oil $81.48, a comeback off the brazilian elections. >> we will continue to keep an i on that, oil still in a bear market. "bloomberg surveillance" on radio continues. "in the loop" on bloomberg television is up next. have a great rest of your morning. ♪ >> good morning. it is tuesday, october 28, you are "in the loop,"

thanks to the shale revolution, demand for oil is down, but additionally domestic oil production is at record levels. citigroup predicts that the u.s. could export as many as 1 million barrels of oil per day by 2015. and the oil prices could dip even lower. reuters reports this week that saudi officials were saying they would accept oil prices below $90 per barrel and perhaps down to $80 for as long as a year or two. they hope perhaps that by doing this they will discourage the search for shale, natural gas, and other such alternatives to their oil. but are these low prices really sustainable? well, charma's team at morgan stanley compiled data for "gps" which show what is each country would have to charge for a barrel of oil in order to balance it's national budget. saudi arabia just has to charge $88 per barrel to balance the books according to charma's analysis. this is up from only a few years ago as it expanded its welfare state in the wake of the arab spring. still, it's affordable for the saudis but not every country is as lucky. libya for instance needs oil to be at $180 per ba