coming up- the lure of big oil, and the oil industry's own tests in the arctic. we want to hear what you think about these stories. join the conversation by following us on twitter and at aljazeera.com/techknow. >> "inside story" takes you beyond the headlines, beyond the quick cuts, beyond the soundbites. we're giving you a deeper dive into the stories that are making our world what it is. >> these are the nightmare scenarios that haunt people when they think about oil in the artic. bp's deepwater horizon blowout that dumped more than 3 million barrels of oil into the gulf of mexico - and the exxon valdez spill - which devastated pince william sound. but for decades, the oil industry has been joining forces to prepare for the unthinkable in the arctic. one of the key questions? how will oil behave in ice? the industry's current work on that question is being done by the arctic response technology joint industry program. they did not respond to techknow's request for an interview, but this video is posted for public viewing on their website. >> ice can often be o

oil demand is met by oil and 93% of transportation is fuelled by oil. so i also think it's important given these facts that these terrorist targeted organizations, we need to diversify our economy in the interest of national security. in the past 6% of our nation's gdp goes to purchasing petroleum. 40 years ago, we created the strategic petroleum reserve to prevent the economic security impacts of crude oil disruptions. the chairwoman and i remain committed to making sure the reserve is a strong asset for our nation. we recently worked to make sure that the reviews identification of infrastructure investment needed for the strategic petroleum preserve given the shift change over our resources and where those are, that those investments need to be made. in the transportation bill, sales of this were authorized. it needs to be protected from further shredding. it's important we have this as a resource for us to protect against instability in oil markets. while i'm sure we're going to hear a lot of discussion today from our panelists about the larger impli

oil demand is met by oil. 93% of transportation is field by oil. -- fueled by oil. i also think is important given these facts that these -- weists organizations need to diversify our economy in the interest of national security. and he passed only 6% of our gdp went to purchasing petroleum. 40 years ago we created the petroleum reserve to prevent crude oil disruption. the chairwoman and i remain committed to making sure the strategic oil reserve is a strong asset for the nation. we recently worked to make sure identification and infrastructure investment needed for the strategic petroleum reserve, given the shifts change we have seen in the u.s. over resources and where they are that those investments into the made -- need to be made. authorized in the sprawl. it needs to be protected from further shredding. it is important we have this as a resource for us to protect against instability in oil markets. while i am sure really here -- we will hear discussion from panelist about the national security and dependence on oil, we need to to continue to make sure we are d

oil demand is met by oil. 93% of transportation is field -- fueled by oil. i also think it is important given these facts that these terrorists organizations -- we need to diversify our economy in the interest of national security. in the past, roughly 6% of our nation's gdp went to purchasing petroleum. 40 years ago we created the strategic petroleum reserve to of crude oilmpact disruptions. the chairwoman and i remain committed to making sure the strategic oil reserve is a strong asset for the nation. we recently worked to make sure the quadrennial review's identification of infrastructure investment needed for the strategic petroleum reserve, given the shifts change we have seen in the u.s. over resources and where they are that those investments into the made -- need to be made. in the 2005 budget agreement, -- theere authorized spro. it needs to be protected from further shredding. it is important we have this as a resource for us to protect against instability in oil markets. while i am sure really here -- we will hear discussion from panelist about th

if you buy oil from i.s.i.l. you pay at substantial discount than you would in the regular market. >> absolutely. when the global oil price fell, so did the price they would receive for their own oil. refined products are also subject to world pricing. whatever they sell inside their territory is a little bit different because that's delinked. they basically have a monopoly. but threefn there ar even there, there are connections to the world price. it also hurt iraq a great deal, it wasn't a one way bet against i.s.i.s. >> family members who have been killed, you are right if enough family members are captured and killed these prices start to add up. tell me how that works into a targeted strategy of defeating i.s.i.l. >> sure. that's a side benefit to a targeted strategy. what we did find both when they were al qaeda in iraq and then islamic state of iraq and then when they were i.s.i.l. they basically have a promise. they have a payroll and they continue to pay family. payroll was based on family size. they con

rally high even as oil goes up? action i see some things that are outright encouraging in the real world not the stock trading world with the hedge funds and stuff. first we have had four big time earnings reports of late, darn den, carnival, sin gas and conagra. darden, parent of olive garden put up excellent numbers for every single 440 calorie piece of salmon that is to die for. 440 calories. anyway, while the price of gasoline wasn't mentioned darden is historically the most correlated to lower prices at the pump. that's positive. carnival is a total energy carnivore as cruise ships are among the largest users of fuel out there. they are able to raise prices as their costs go lower. sintas showed 6% organic growth. jobs being created, lots of finally conagra or cag reported a quarter that contained good growth in the bottom line. it isn't easy to put up strong numbers if you are in the food business. the new management team seems to have a better handle at its costs. nike gave a terrific earnings report, that is

oil exports. it's been in place since the 1970s, arab oil embargo, and in return democrats are winning extensions of tax credits benefitting the renewable energy. oil is trading at 11 year lows. settling below 35 a barrel. the world is awash in cheap oil, and analysts say it's one reason little will be exported any time soon. no matter, the slick dealing succeeds inform keeping the government running, proving that compromise in washington is possible, and part of the compromise means there's something in the deal for everyone to like and dislike. mike viqueira has the story. >> reporter: after weeks of bridgesmanship both sides used what was a dirty word. >> it's a compromise, i understand both don't like some of the compromising, but that is what we have. >> they want an end to the ban on oil, an effort to find markets for a resurgent oil industry. the ban baits from a time of puck police car anger and anxiety during the oil shock of 1970s. many say it was never effective in keeping the prices do

it's the worshipping of the false god of higher oil. or even the demigod of slightly higher oil. this bullish stock pandering to the rising stock of oil was a threefold impact on the market that defines crazy town because it's so darn positive. why do the bulls like -- what do they like about all of us paying more at the pump or having our goods be more expensive because of the cost of energy? first to the crazy town aficionados, higher oil means less stress to the system. we are nowhere near the point where we don't need to worry about oil and gas companies going belly up. we need it at $45 a barrel to keep most companies alive in this country. there's some cheaper oil, but it's being used up by cash strapped firms going after the lowest hanging fruit in the portfolios. trouble with oil companies can sell futures and lock in, say, 50 bucks a barrel which keeps them around to play on and maybe pay dividends. at this moment we're $9 away from that $45 level even after today's big run. that's pretty darn fun. anytime we get away from the idea that oil is headed down to the 20s the

oil demand is met by oil and 93% of transportation is fuelled by oil. so i also think it's important given these facts that these terrorist targeted organizations, we need to diversify our economy in the interest of national security. in the past 6% of our nation's gdp goes to purchasing petroleum. 40 years ago, we created the strategic petroleum reserve to prevent the economic security impacts of crude oil disruptions. the chairwoman and i remain committed to making sure the reserve is a strong asset for our nation. we recently worked to make sure that the reviews identification of infrastructure investment needed for the strategic petroleum preserve given the shift change over our resources and where those are, that those investments need to be made. in the transportation bill, sales ofauthorized. it needs to be protected from further shredding. it's important we have this as a resource for us to protect against instability in oil markets. while i'm sure we're going to hear a lot of discussion today from our panelists about the larger implications of

oil. if we cut off their revenue, that would be an important part of destroying their capabilities to launch their terror attacks around the world. mr harrell: it is clear that isis is not a threat we should contain, it is a threat we should destroy. >> thank you. mr. webster, any thoughts on that as well? we have heard these comments that the limited attacks in iraq and syria have been related to environmental concerns. then we have paris and san bernardino, the strategies change. any insight? webster: i am a global market guy. i would agree with peter that it would seem when you are looking at this, that the cost in terms of collateral damage against what isis brings particularly as , i am looking around the world at increased risks to the global supply system over the next several years, anything we can do to roll that back would be a positive thing. >> this gets back to, we don't want politicians running this war, we want the u.s. military to destroy isis. mr. webster, my question is h

no oil demand growth.we still have to produce new oil amounts of 4 million per day just with the decline. so lucky human beings when there are new and young people. itpeople. it comes to a certain level and then goes down. so we have to find new things can't produce new things just to compensate those declines, and it is the main story. each year we have to bring the production level of investments. i am worried, whatever the demand growth is called would've to demand growth is strong: million barrels per day and higher we may see that challenge and markets over the next years to come. the focus for this year's energy outlook. you expect india to reach agreement on associate status? if not why and if so what are the issues that are holding that up? >> thank you. retired from the world bank. thank you for an excellent presentation. he did not mention the words carbon taxing your entire presentation or carbon pricing. i want -- i am assuming that all of your projections are assuming that something like that

oil, i.t. no

and so when we produce oil and gas out of them, we have water to dispose of. >> for each barrel of oil brought up out of the ground, 10 or more barrels of water come with it. after the oil is separated, the water has to go somewhere; it's put back underground in disposal wells. >> back in the 1930's we decided the best place to put it was deep in the ground about a mile down. problem is, is that our volumes have increased and our rates have increased, and now what we have is pressure hitting faults and making earthquakes. >> so, i did some calculations. there's a lake in the middle of oklahoma city called lake hefner. and so it's about two of those lakes per year, going down into the ground. and that's helped people understand, you're gonna drain out an entire lake a couple times, and shove it into a formation a mile down. >> we wanted to see the wastewater injection process for ourselves. so we met up with angela spotts who helped start a group called stop fracking payne county; she took us on a drive on the outskirts of stillwater. >> this is a commercial injection well, where the tr

oil exports. i can't speak to the domestic side of that equation. >> i think it's important for the global energy security, particularly considering that the investment in nonopaque oil is reducing and the share of oil export is going to increase from 50% today to 75% in the next decade. so it is important to have especially middle east tackling all of these terrorist attacks and threats. it is important to have alternative resources, especially from the u.s. >> mr. webster? >> thanks for your question, senator. as you are probably aware, i just put out a couple of studies on the crude export issue. and our findings is that this is a clear win for the u.s. economy. and also for energy security. it's difficult to find a case where this is not a positive. >> thank you. doctor, when the united states put the restrictions in place, the sanctions in place on iran, at that time i believe iran was exporting 2.5 million barrels a day. after those sanctions had gone into place, i believe their exports decl

the $30 oil today is the $100 oil. basically, we have to come to grips with reality. and the new normal will be between $65 and $75 in a couple years. >> stewart, john made it clear they're still profitable and cash flow positive even at today's prices because they have such low operating costs. they've been in markets like the permian for over 80 years. i referenced the old adage sort of semisarcastic adage in the oil business that all the money is made in the down turn in previous down turns chevron has been aggressive buyer. texaco comes to mind. they got chesapeake assets last year. do you think they should be aggressive buyers of other assets? >> i think chevron has a lot at play for 2017. they're trying to build out two major lng projects. they're trying to streamline the operations at the same time. they're trying to protect their dividend in a very low crude oil price environment. i think at best they're probably treading water on free cash flow in 2016. there's a lot that can go wrong given the strategies. i t

oil companies during this time were encouraged to get oil and gas from other countries.y 1970, we imported 1/3 of our oil and gas, relying on others to meet new needs. then in the big middle east 1973, producers cut off oil shipments to major consuming countries. when the embargo was lifted, the price of foreign oil had jumped from $3 per barrel up to $12 per barrel, four times higher than before. $20 billion left the united dates. no one was spared the impact. >> looking at my bill, i'm getting upset. paying more for electricity every month. the gasoline is going up. i am used to being able to go when i want to, when i want to, but suddenly i think i'm going to have to start curbing my habit. >> my family and i have tended to conserve energy implementing the use of our cars, plus cut back on heat in our home and cut back on air conditioning. in general, a conservation ethic has come across our house. >> most people are pretty selfish. let summary else do it. when it comes to home, they just want to go along the same old way. narrator: although some went on in the same o

this speaks to oil and we have seen a major growth of oil production in the united states, tied to oil, perhaps demand but when i had the privilege to -- to present in 2009, we sat here, that is a silent revolution taking place in north america with all these implications and we are seeing this as a result of lack tight oil and shale gas, huge implication for energy works for geopolitics but a lot to oil security in terms of lack tile oil but we also know that the price is a very important factor for the profitability of the many projects there and our expectation is, if the prices remain at these levels, we may lose significant amount of oil in the united states. for example, the prices remain about $50, we may lose from today about 2 million barrels per day and it is the very reason putting together the -- all other factors for just what we see today, what is happening in iraq. our production expectation of iraq is revised down. another major driver of the lots of oil in the markets today. and oil demand growing higher than 1 million barrels per day, we expect that the oil prices wil

if that was the onlyer o driv oil prices, if you squint your eyes carefully oil should be at $46.here are other drivers and the whole model basically cheap, but not as cheap. oil through most of the decline has not been cheap. the cheapness of oil relative to fair value is unusual. and that has basically allowed positioning, i would argue. certainly short positions have been rising, but there has been a steady possession that has not -- procession that has not come off the table. alix: except -- binky: except for a brief time during september 2014. that's why i call it the curious case of oil positioning. that we haveline had, these positions have not really moved and we noted previously that we seemed to suggest that there is a fairly significant sort of investment or asset allocation flow that is, you know, basically impervious to what's happening with price. so, do you buy it here? binky: given the volatility i was say that it's starting to get interesting, but it is still a bit early. yes, the trade literally taken would be too short the dollar and long, basically, oil. alix:

oil companies.xt 20 years, we see a 40% increase in energy consumption, and that is largely tied to economic growth, urbanizaton, and really prosperity for people that previously did not participate in the economy. if you look at what is happening around the world, we are seeing unprecedented breadth of economic growth. if you go back many years, the economic growth took place in the u.s. and europe. now we are seeing asia and africa growth. and as more people enter the middle class, they are going to need energy. ♪ ♪ martha: i was told when i started that i couldn't be a director because i was a woman. and i have been directing now for many years, but certainly not as frequently as i would have had i been a man. maria: i was going into meetings on projects with people as a feature director who had worked with academy award nominated actors. so i should have been taken seriously in these meetings. but i wasn't. it was always a sense of, can you really do this? that a man could do it better. lexi: pe

is oil and gas.year russia will probably contract somewhere under 5% but it has kind of leveled out. it's not the kind of crisis that was expected six or eight months ago. have sanctions in russia and russia's putting sanctions on turkey. so this could continue to spiral. betty: staying with energy and its impact on climate change, talks in paris on climate change are entering there's a can we in efforts to curb greenhouse gases . a u.n. study found carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in industries likely dropped this year, the first decline on record during a time of strong economic growth. with the ceo of pacific gas and electric at the conference. he said the state of california's converting to renewables at a fast rate. incredibleaking progress. today, 30% of the electricity we deliver to our customers comes from renewable sources. hydro anddd in our nuclear, that's more than half the energy we deliver to our customers that is completely non-greenhouse. haveve a partnership and crafted a v

oil prices. doesn't matter. this is a machine-controlled stock trading environment and the algorithms, the ones like amazon, other customers that like oil also bought the s&p 500 that's what makes the decision. the linkage will work until it stops. if you peel away the silliness of the market being controlled by the s&p 500 futures that are linked to oil you discover companies like carnival, darden and nike that are reacting to the commodity in a smart and reasonable way. nonrelated news is also being viewed positively. celgene sent the stock creaming higher, there are so many shorts in that celgene name and they will feel it tonight. i'm not buying roots which is about a mile away from celgene. the fact that some rationality can prevail in a welcome sign that not everything is totally nuts, i like that, you ask the credit markets could be weakened if the energy companies go belly up, that's a reasonable assumption and there's also a possibility we will explore of later in the show that oil might

>> oil of being ahead of reports. hedge fund malaise deepens. 49ers $50 billion in which ine -- set for $950 million wit withdrawal requests. welcome to countdown. 6:00 here inone london. it's take a look at the commodity markets. we have to talk about parity between wti, the u.s. benchmark, and brent, which is the global benchmark. wti gainingpresents on brent. this chart goes back to the start of the year. we have seen the pace of that game by wti close the gap on brent. just around the time that we saw the u.s. government, the decision air to end the u.s. export ban. decision to end the u.s. export ban. we get u.s. crude inventories as well as an update from opec. plenty going on in the commodity space today. >> royal dutch shell, europe's largest company -- largest oil company, agrees to take over bg group. meanwhile, movies has downgraded oil ratings. managere fund majority-owned by carlyle group suffered $950 million in withdrawal requests in the third quarter. assets 85% below their peak last year. nike shares

how much further does oil fall? when do traders stop looking at oil as a proxy? chuck: i think oil is near its bottom. we have seen a fallback and production in the u.s.. 95 millionis down barrels a day. we have seen a reaction already. i don't think will go that much more. i would not be surprised of oil is bouncing toward the dollar's by the second half. vonnie: what becomes the metric? chuck: the variable they should care about more than anything is the labor market in the united states. we've seen the fed hike rates once. they willld everyone only move gradually. but are not they can deliver on that promise depends and how inflation forms. the labor market is getting tighter. -- unless the repeal the laws of supply and demand, that flows through to prices. wishfulthere is some thinking going on with fed policy. michael: we have not talked about the greek yield. it has gone away. they were the story for how many years? it has sort of ball off the radar screen. we're going to talk more about that and whether or not he will have any more greases in the future. w

just last summer south of galina, bakken oil crude oil railroad train derailed and the oil spilled into the mississippi river. you probably saw photos of that, smoke and fire and everything. that train was going 25 miles an hour. we don't have the infrastructure to move this oil by rail. every barrel of oil that goes through the pipeline is not being shipped by train. that's good. pete welch: or over the road. bill gerrhard: or over the roads. lastly, i think it's national security. you probably remember this. and early '80s opec had their boot on our throat. opec is a cartel form the mideast. we we were not supposed to whole mantra after that was let's become energy independent. we have an opportunity now to be energy independent. this is sort of personal with me. i have a 19 year old son and a 16 year old son. i don't want them or anyone's sons or daughters for oil when we have it domestically here. i'm in favor of this pipeline for a lot of reasons. imminent domain, my understandin g, almost 77% of the land has been acquired by voluntary negotiations with the company. i'm sure the co

analyst,oil and energy the author of three books on the oil industry and an investigative journalist,ing numerous investigations and exxonmobil. >> some of your work has talked about the connection between the oil industry and foreign policy. would it be safe to say the oil industry plays an important role in u.s. foreign-policy? >> absolutely, key and crucial. >> at this point, many of the early figures -- many of the prominent figures in the war in iraq, for instance, have said that it was a war for oil. is that correct? >> absolutely. we have seen over the last several years increasing statements by those who were deeply involved in the processes of the decision to invade iraq, to make clear that while oil was not the only or sole objective of the war, it was a clear intention and objective of the war. and as i have reported extensively in that objective, it was exceptionally successful. roled it exxon play some in this politics? >> exxonmobil is a major funder of george bush as well as george bush's father. and for those here who aren't from the united states, george bush junior,

shale oil flooding the market. at the same time, demand for oil has fallen due to a slowdown in economic growth in china and europe. a recovery in oil prices could be long coming. when french energy giant says it does not expect oil prices to rise at all next year. the head of the company says the glut of supply will worsen over the next few months. >> there are few single factors that influence oil price. let's talk to our guest and frank for it. how does it affect markets? >> as usual, there are winners and losers. this is just a normal reaction. so, the immediate losers are the oil companies. any company related to the direct industry. we are seeing exxon, the united states go down. the oil company in spain is the biggest loser. that means direct losses. it has a big impact on the economies, those that are most reliant on the oil prices. this also means the economy of venezuela, which we also had on this edition of "dw news." and there are many companies indirectly affected by lower oil prices. we have winners.

he buys oil from d.a.e.s.h. sells it to the syrian regime and international oil traders. most recently the u.s. department of the treasury made this public. another chess player in the oil trade. we have documents that we will make public to the world. >> reporter: russia is demanding an apology from turkey for the loss of its plane. turkey is urging russia to keep a cool head. for now, the war of words goes on >>> britain as prime minister says air strikes against i.s.i.l. targets in syria will take time and require persistence. david cameron has been speaking for the first time is since they gave the go ahead to go into action in syria. >> reporter: there will be very strong support from muslim countries, gulf countries that have asked us to take part in this action as part of a process that will actually help to deliver the political and diplomatic change that we need in syria as well, but we're going to need to be patient and persistent. this will take time. it is complex, it is difficult, but what we're asking our pilots to do but our thoughts should be with them and

oil rally in q2.n everybody started increasing their forecast and then oil starts to soften again. having said where oil is today, brent is at 38, 36, the average this year is much higher. 54. in the scheme of things, $54 oil is not the worst thing. next year that is going to be a big concern for the emerging market countries who are dependent on oil exports. iaea report, if we theshow a crude chart, problem is it is a slow, steady decline. i don't see what would change the conundrum because no one is cutting any production. oil expert -- nan ryan: you get a change of tack from the saudis. what you're saying about the saudis being reluctant to allow availanians to sort of themselves of this treasure trove that they have not been able to export to markets is very true. i was at the opec eating. in fact that was one of the reasons cited by the secretary-general for not having a production target at this meeting, which was almost unprecedented because they said we have to wait to see what happens with th

oil's gravitational pull yanking the markets down, dow jones industrials down 136 points, but as oil drowns, the dow is trying to fight back, cutting losses. at one point as steep as 245 points. well, not oil, but the threat of terrorism looming large today on capitol hill and across the nation. as i just mentioned, take a look on your screen. that's a live picture of the house floor. the house is expected to vote to restrict the visa waiver program. that means the visa-free program for people from 38 states coming in for less than 90 days, they may vote to tighten this thing within this hour. we'll let you know the second it happens. this action comes just one day after billionaire republican presidential candidate donald trump said he would ban all muslims from having this country. it has touched off quite the firestorm on all sides of the aisle. in fact, comments are dripping and jumping in every second. i'll bring those to you. trump also calling members of congress messy and confused, blaming them for the current situation. so we are going to ask one of them about that. congress

look at crude oil. crude oil has been driving this market.ou have been talking about it now for a couple years almost as far as i can tell, but crude oil, ever since we took out $40 has been making this market sick, and the reason is because 15 of the 20 largest sovereign wealth funds in the world, which equal anywhere 5 trltz $5 trill6 trillion are heavily invested. under $40 they cannot bet their budgets. we already see it with the saudis. all of that is a correlating. the other thing you want to pay attention to are noncorrelated asset classes, managed futures for example. managed futures are something people are always scared of but you have managed futures in mutual fund type of structures. so you can actually go out there and start to protect yourself. but this is the time to do it. brian, you have been interviewing me for a couple decades through a couple different networks. i don't get cautious often but we're entering that period. '92, '88, these were bad years for the market. this market could get hit 20% to 30% next year. >> wow, 2