taylor: cowen managing director oliver chen. we appreciate it. in the meantime, we want to bring you a market alert. nasdaq turning positive on the day, we had a nasdaq that was trying to flirt around noon going green. this index was up more than 1% when we woke up this morning. positive, not by much. 1/10 of 1%. it is the resiliency of these markets that continues. we will talk of of the resiliency of the rate markets. ian lyngen of bmo capital markets joins us next. the outlook for treasuries next. this is bloomberg. ♪ taylor: this is bloomberg markets. treasury is weaker, lower yields higher. investors are starting to digest the cooler housing data. ian lyngen with bmo capital markets joining me in studio. rp keeled -- are peak yields behind us? ian: it will take a lot to get back above 350. have consolidated it, the biggest potential when it comes to u.s. interest rates is in the front end of the curve. the fed will continue to hike rates that will put upward pressure on two-year yields, maybe three year yields depending on how aggressive the

also withstand discounting oliver chen is senior analyst and managing director at cowan joins us now oliver, so how does this work? back to school i think of clothes, i think of supplies when kids get older, maybe you've even got some furniture mixed in but what doesn't get bought in an inflationary environment, or do people just trade down and buy cheaper? >> well, what's happening is that trade-down is happening consumers are looking for values we're calling it back to school back to discounts. and what walmart and target are doing is very effective in terms of offering many items below a dollar $100 laptops with inflation being a big problem with the consumer. retailers are prepared for this. many more markdowns and more inventory than retail really wants. so we're cautiously optimistic we're forecasting back to school of down 1% the street's looking for down .5%. so we continue to watch the environment. our top ideas here are target and ulta >> okay. so what does down 1% mean? because i take it you're talking down 1% in revenue but people are having to pay more, right? for the sam

. >> oliver chen basically says they've got inventory up the whatever see, this is what i'm talking about. inventory, i'm talking about this at my investment club 12:00 meeting, inventory as mickey dressler would tell you, is the bane of every retailer and we're getting a glut of inventory throughout the system in part because the fed made it more expensive to keep inventory, but they don't have any place to put the inventory because they've also made the consumer so scared the consumer is being told to worry. look, it's like the goldman piece. money managers, you better be getting ready to worry i don't like that. but it can work. >> certainly you talk and banks there's a report out today about credit suisse potentially looking at some av layoffs to help revive. and we've talked about the banks and -- >> the investment banking. we know that goldman sachs is quick to be able to -- if they have divisions that aren't doing well, very quick to slice those divisions. i remember when i was at goldman that mortgage business wasn't doing well and then one day you went down and there was no mortg