tom: would have olivier blanchard coming up later. review how he was dead on of the need to reflate. he was way out front of every other frontline economist in saying this is slow, this is a new lower terminal value and we need to reflate the economy. is that even feasible today after what we have seen with abenomics? lakshman: i think that is an open question. while we may have some good intentions, obviously, policy makers are trying to get things going, doing all these extraordinary things, even more than what japan did. look at the end result. it is still slowing. when you go back to -- yes, he was on port -- he was on point and trying to reflate. you go back to the basic ingredients. productivity growth for the entire working population, and demographics. how do you change those? if you can change the vector on those, you can solve the problem. tom: this is breaking news from citigroup, and edward morse, the backdrop, the buiter call on a global recession. the saudi arabian opec .attle will be a one at best. not changing but a ri

here is olivier blanchard on the complex.f oil the price collapsed, there was a question of what was behind. there were people thinking it was a high world demand or supply. we took a position that there was a collapse of opec to the right. and non-oil producers, this is good news. did you see how she cut that? it was perfect. that was the most important. betty: i don't know what that means. tom: the video. chart, they nailed with the imf said about opec. saying that this is about saudi arabia and the oil coming out. professor plan c -- d thought weanchar would be more benefited by oil prices. betty: not at all. i see the lower gas prices, but they are not low enough for me. tom: you are driving a hummer h2. betty: i am driving a hybrid. tom keene. more ahead on bloomberg television. speaking about the climate. will hear from the director of the environmental protection agency and how calpers is pressuring companies to clean up their act. it is the season for bank bonuses. two is scoring big, and who is being paid too much? f

-- so is olivier blanchard are correct? john: i would disagree with that.f the currency up at 4.5 percent? if we do, that means we have a roaring economy. the difficulty with meaningfully higher long-term rates coming of earnings that are down to flat this year. john: and are these real rates or nominal rates? are we discounting inflation? is inflation the real story driving the 4%, 5% long rate? vonnie: where did we see the dots go? are lower in 2017, 2018. long-term, the fed will fund the rate at 3.4% -- at 3%, 4%. it is still high. i think inflation picks up this year, but it does not accelerate into 2017. guy: which is the anomaly? the middle of that chart or the end of that chart? if you think about an economy and where it is going forward from here, that downward trajectory obviously is something we would be focused on for a long time. but if you look at to the becky in the, the middle of the night -- at the back end of the 1980's, which one is odd? of 1875 --, the toe to 1981 --of 1975 since 1994, since nafta was first put in place, inflation in the

this is -- with olivia -- with olivier blanchard. stay with us.ondon, we get your morning started at "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ tom: you wonder where currencies will be, on the commodity moves we see this morning after a .eaker yen russian ruble, we have a 69 print. that is a huge deal, indicative of the hydrocarbon pressure. right now, to look forward to "bloomberg ," here is stephanie ruhle. stephanie: thank you, mr. tom keene. on friday we saw the markets close up, so we are monitoring, and we also are monitoring oil, which continues to slide following the opec meeting. we will break that down with terry duffy, who has talked about real estate in the experienced economy. what isest will tell us driving people into shopping malls. it is not just sale prices. .an schrager will be joining us it is about the experience, tom. are you enjoying yourself? are you experiencing something? i experienced a very big weekend in miami. an art boat --h we sat down and talked about an art bubble. tom: right now we need to prepare ourselves for nine days ou

with start with comments olivier blanchard a. he warned that they need to take action now.to start before it is too late. that is the difficulty of it. even when we have increased the rate by 25 basis points, we are still very far from the rate with which we should end up. for these reasons, this is the time to do it. china's trade its club keeps getting worse. it fell in november for the fifth month in a row. the trade data comes after a report shows that china's factory conditions fell to the weakest level. worsens, johnmp brown spoke to bloomberg in london about where he thinks oil is going in the long run. nothing is impossible. i think long run -- $20 in today's context is probably wrong. but that is as far as i would go. alix: anglo american is scrapping the dividends for the first time since 2009. they will suspend evidence for the second half of this year and all of 2016. they're pledging deeper spending cuts to help them withstand a collapse in commodities. time now for the bloomberg quick takes where we provide background on issues of interest. today, breaking dow