omair: the expectation has decelerated sharply.ot of the inflatation before the revisions on friday, a lot of that was led by transportation service, like airfare. the deceleration was from the reversal in airfares. as you know, the revisions bumped up that fourth-quarter number in core. it looks like the picture for used cars is that they are firming into the spring. those prices turn fast. wholesale prices increased 7-8 weeks ago, and retail prices are picking up quickly. used-car prices helped in terms of the disinflation story in q4, but unfortunately, tail end of q1 and early q2, they will become a problem again in terms of helping push forward inflation higher. for me, the next few months are about the upside risk to core inflation. and we have sort of gotten away from the disinflation story we had in q4 of last year. tom: what is your take, there was some hand wringing the last couple of days about the seasonal effects, and how that points to higher core inflation. omair: i was surprised to see core inflation higher on the b

during part that john williams, omair, just mentioned. the new york fed says he's worried that these prices will become entrenched. why, if i'm a retailer, am i going to lower my prices as quickly as i raised them? what's your terminal rate expectation, and do you expect a pause this year, maybe a pivot? i doubt you're going to expect a pivot this year from the fed starting to cut rates this year, right? >> yeah, no. absolutely no pivot. certainly not the way the data the's come out. you mentioned the job market number, the cpi now. i think a pivot is, you know, a pipe dream at this point. a pause if i still think could come at some point, but we continue to push that timeline further and further back. liz: right. >> it's the now looking more like perhaps in the second half, but if the data continues in this manner, and i think the next couple of months are still pretty dicey in terms of inflation, the fed's probably got a little more work to do here. liz: well, what did i tell you guys? look at s&p, it is down a point. we start thed at t