and the ecb will be fully transparent on its omts. well report weekly on total portfolio holdings and monthly on the average duration of our holdings and the breakdown by country. let me now turn to the other topic you've chosen for today's exchange of views, namely the financial market union. the ecb welcomes the european commission's proposal for a single supervisory mechanism. which is very much in line with a statement of the euro area of 29 ths of june 2012. we're looking forward to working closely with the european parliament in this field. >> let's get some reaction to what he had to say about the omts. one to three year maturity, we kind of knew all that sort of stuff. the interesting thing is about how it actually works. because he's talking about we would exit an omt if they're not meeting the conditions or we assume it's working. how do you know it's working? because the definition is a distorted honest takmonetary po banks are borrowing at different rates. >> i think the exit would only come if the country exits from a pro

i think spain was a strong buy when the omt was announced. there are important limitations to what the ecb can do. i think a lot of people have interpreted what draghi has actually said. the ecb will not be a replacement mechanism for the political dialogue and certainly not for free markets. it's politicses that really matter with spain because spain is fundamentally solvent. so on the positive side, a lot of people want to see spain come to the table because they will get nominal conditionality return. it's not going to be anything like the problems that we've had already. on the negative side, i think spain will resist for as long as possible because of the politics. the trouble with this is that this is what mario draghi's leading too, as well, the whole combination of the european firewall of managing the crisis has got a negative stigma to it. if the omts is going to be the symbolic umbrellas representing a single sense of unity, this cannot happen by penalizing some members and transferring sovereignty visibly to others. it has to be j

. >> the omt certainly mitigated a lot of tail risks. how long do we have before it comes back? >> the key question is when does spain make the request. we have a cat and mouse situation in the markets at the moment whereby as long as spain does not ask for a request, although we've seen a rally in spanish bond yields, i think a rally is largely done. we might get ten year moving down towards 5%, but will we get them moving down to almost let's say french levels. the answer to that is no. if spain goes to the ecb and the esm and asks for sovereign bond market assistance, which frankly i think they need to come and i wouldn't be at all surprised if they do it in november, then you could see i think with ecb action quite strong downward movement in bond yields. >> it's for that reason that they won't push span, bond yields up. and as long as that's the case, the government won't ask for assistance if they can keep funding them. >> do they want to fund themselves or if the omt was activated, do they want to fund themselves at, say, sub 4%. >> all depends on the conditionality. and

we've had the omt. what will the ebc do next? because they've thrown the ball back into the court. is this bas >> basically leaving to the politicians. but the problem is that draghi's first move if august he put a bit more meat on the bones, but we're still waiting. markets are waiting for spain to put its hand up and ask for assistant. and the problem with all of this is that we could be here a week from now, a month from now, nobody has a clear time line. >> silvia would like to ask a question to you. >> yes. we'll try to get back to the issue of banking supervision and banking union. i had the feeling from when we came back from the eco fin meeting, already there was a bit of maybe we don't have to stick to the time line, and slovenia president was a bit concerned with the way maybe the whole banking supervision plans have stalled. >> i think banking is a bit of a red herring. it's obviously something politicians are thinking about, but specifically with respect to spain, i think it was pretty clear from the outside back in july, they said this is clearly going to spanish sover

and ever since the omt announcement, investors recognize that has reduced the tail risk. we have seen bond yields come down. spanish government has completed about 90% of it borrowing for this year. but we're still in the standoff between requesting a formal bailout and exactly some degree of conditionality. >> if that sort of data continue, would you suggest more recapitalization into the spanish bachks? >> that's right. >> and will we get any thoughts on whether they will be allowed to directly recapitalize? >> one of the key sticking points. the spanish economy is still in a recessionary state. a lot of the forecasts, including the imf is much p more pessimist tig. the real estate market continues to decline. that creates the latest moves. so a lot of the key fundamental problems haven't been sorted out but going forward spain will require assistance. but still lots of underlying problems in the eurozone that need to be sorted out. >> that's for sure. spanish students walked out of school to protest on the streets of madrid depends what they called a fascist government

but as recently we had the ecb announcing its new omt to save the emu. >> one acronym is now here to stay and leaders say it's one to remember -- esm, or european stability mechanism. >> it is designed to rescue countries that get in trouble. >> there is a big legal challenge in germany and now it is here. they're hoping it will turn out to be worth the wait. >> european finance ministers smiling after frequent outbursts. their signature as formally establish the bailout fund. it will prop up member states. >> getting esm on the runway shows that they're committed to overcoming the difficulties of our time. >> it shows we are predictable, reliable. eventually they will realize that. >> investors have been speculating that big eurozone states like spain could need help. they have denied that they will be needing a bailout. >> we have enough crisis in europe. i'm optimistic at the moment for future prospects of the eurozone. >> for now, it's still quiet in the luxembourg office. a bailout request could come soon. >> we will be in luxembourg for that meeting of european finance minister

the rumor is that now they're going to wait until january to activate omt, and so that's getting the markets a little bit nervous. but, we're sitting in a very tight range. it doesn't seem like the market cares right now. > > why is oil holding up? things can't be that bad if oil is up at these levels. > > just keep in mind oil has fallen off the map just the last couple of weeks, and i think it's just taking a corrective rally right now. supplies are thinning out. they were much higher even two weeks ago. so i think it's just a correct bounce. just look for oil to level off and perhaps go a little bit lower in the next couple of months. > > larry shover of sfg alternatives. thank you larry. > > thank you. 2 debates down, 2 more to go. the spotlight moved from the presidential race to the vice presidential candidates last night. v.p. joe biden and republican contender paul ryan stepped up to the plate in danville, kentucky, to spar over the economy and more. who will pay more in taxes who will pay less? the middle class will pay less and the people making $1 million will pay slightly

the fact that spain would go for the sort of a program with the esm that would open the way to the omt by the ecb, all that needs to be implemented. now, the treaty is being ratified. so as far as the treaty is concerned, i see implementation taking place. and i think the treaty is formulated in structured terms. so your target should be the budget corrected for the effect of the cycle. that i think is a sound approach. i would wish the treatly just to be translated in to real policy action. >> how soon do you think before spain should ask for aid? should they have done it a long time ago? >> i think they should have done it already p perhaps not a long time ago. there was a case to wait for the outcome of the stress test. but now definitely should go for it. the temptation to reap the benefits of the announcement without the real action i think should be resistant. we see the s&p decision is just an indication that those are extremely fragile and that the agreements need to be implanted. this is a framework. it's a framework for policy, a framework for ecb intervention. a framework fo

if what they're doing, if the omt is a monetary policy measure that is absolutely necessary to repair dysfunctional markets, why hasn't it happened yet? why are there political conditions set to dispensing monetary policy to doing its job? these are questions that are buzzing around here. has the ecb actually abandoned monetary policy a long time ago and entered into quasi fiscal policy? there's a lot of talk about that. but also, of course, the accountability of the ecb, if the ecb is asked more and more to take on tasks that it wasn't originally designed to do, to embark on crisis management, to embark on repairs of fiscal disparages, then the ecb must become more accountable. must become more transparent like the fed in the u.s. where have the trillion euros gone? which banks benefited from it? these are questions that the members of the various committees that we've been talking to have been asking us and say this is what we would put to mario draggy, saying basically okay, if you step up to the fray and buy us time, you still have to tell us what you're doing. i asked him among o

e debate was a searm of thse,atsi a an omt ryha t defend and defending it in the debates where, you knownd of like you cannot spin your way through. you cannot read off the teleprompter, it is hard w someone isuttit to ynd >>: arpd h n getting more bang for the polls with the 7.8 unemployment rate. >>guest: that is the other half. the public, because of people like jack welch, who did all th i that the fact he came out and educated the public the numbers are manipulateed and --. >>neil: he said there are no guards thererying to hold them of >>est: it isu d s vea ey ga ao of an insight into how that is done and he did it, i think he did it in great way to be honest. a lost my journalist friends think he did it in an intful way. yoouaeheni dn' a gr a she unemployment rate drop the way it did so he questioned that. ing he said because there is so much "squish" in the numbers and room to guesstimate where it is, do notayen. unoy.t r iyers dendg ustth real unemployment is much higher. >>neil: so when the administration afghanistans -- administration argues that the trend is t friend-. opte t

. >> a few details of how the ecb might run its omt program. buy heavily in the bond markets for one to two months under any omt program and then stop for the assessment period. the bundesbank would then participate in those purchasing despite its opposition to the program. so they envision large buying volumes of sovereign bonds for a period of one to two months. also questioned what the exit bank strategy might be, in other words how it would put a stop to outright monetary transactions. the answer appears to be that they would suspend purchases on a regular basis for a period that could last up to a month or more. at the same time, we're hearing the german government saying angela merkel will fly to athenss on tuesday to meet the greek prime minister.athens on tuesday to meet the greek prime minister. next week sees the vice president presidential debate before we get two more presidential debates. one of the major issues is it that looming fiscal cliff. president obama challenged mitt romney on his plans for cutting the nation's debt. >> wh

and then ben affleck has a new film on iran,omt afk bnom a oohooo....hahaahahah! oh...there you go. wooohaah m a d tr! no you're not. i know. you know ronny folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico sure are happy. how happy are they jimmy? happier than a witch in a broom factory. get happy. get geico. fiftn mites uld y eercore. manceho y make 70,000 trades a second... ♪ reach one customer at a time? ♪ heldocrs tbinsby ofrefoio ♪ into a fifth anniversary of remission? ♪ whatever your business challenge, dell has the technology and servic to help you solve it. as k t ibi obanttneer etth faler should fund the corporation for public broadcasting which will get $450 million next year alone. big bird has become the symbol of the fight. there is a lot more going on jog flong,bird lavar burton who was the host for 26 years. i know you're deeply emotionally involved with this and your point of view what just articulate it for the viewers tonight. t tofhe, esigesu enus big bird. what pbs represents for this untry and has for an awfully long time is the ideal that we wa to g eit e

the omt is a dividing line between which type of deleveraging you're in. the europeans have finally got to the place -- called a beautiful deleveraging. it's a better deleveraging. >> all that may prevent indices from charging much higher. there are individual companies that can do well in this environment. it was interesting to look at fair point group and other businesses that around the rescheduling of debts and the management of cash flow. you like these businesses? >> absolutely. i mean, i think there's great opportunity for rescheduling of debt on an individual basis. has had a great run last year, but it's about 88 pence at the moment. up 40%, 50% last year. it's an incredibly attractive investment. and should we see a pickup in terms of demand for people wanting to get involved in rescheduling their debt, and we think they will be at certain stages, this economy will see improved trading conditions. so really, great attractive opportunities. the markets themselves may rise a built, but i think through stock selection, you can really add value. we'v

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the omt, the outright monetary transaction program, is sitting there ready to go. be a good backstop. >> so what should i do? >> fourth quarter, we think will be only 1.2% growth. this quarter, we're going to get the first look at the third quarter. we think 1.5, then 1.2, then 0.9. a very slow deceleration. be defensive. go with your johnson & johnson, which just made a new 52-week high. that's the kind of stock to build on. also, you want dividend paying, good growth things and things you find in your pantry and medicine cabinet and closet. >> bob, what are you seeing today? >> look, no pull back. since june, we hit the bottom. there has been no pull back that's deeper than 4%. not a single one. there is no particular reason right now to believe that's going to change dramatically. i agree. i'm not particularly happy with the fact that the banks held up, but now that we're getting tech earnings, the revenues are not really there for the pc sales. also, materials in the industrial names are very, very defensive it right now and very, very -- just very cautious in

that precise, but the bottom line is that we've had this rally on anticipation of qe, on qe, on the omt in europe, and if this level cannot hold, the market's going to start caring about some of the data out there. the fedex warnings and that type of thing. at this point, i don't think it is, and the ism data was fairly good and fairly encouraging, but the market has to hold. i say 1,425, we go higher for the end of the year. the bull -- >> the bull costume? >> exactly. >> is a spanish bailout wrapped up in your belief that the markets will go higher? >> yes. >> that has to happen? >> has to happen absolutely by the end of october. >> j.j., where do you stand? >> i think we're going higher also. and, you know, really i think we may go up and touch 1,500 between now and the year end at some time. i don't think we're going to settle that high, but i believe based on everything going on right now. the market and see people out in the spx, out buying the calls, have been doing so for the last few weeks. and all we seem to see overall is bad news, bad news, it hangs in there. i like to see g

he'sn cet omts trailer. >>> it all started in iceland. i think i'm so certain to get wet i'll take my boots off. i never imagined that you could see glaciers this big disappearing in such a short time. there's a powerful piece of history that's unfolding in these pictures, and i have to go ck. the initial goal was to put out 25 cameras for three years, shoot every hour as long as it was daylight. that would show you how the landscape is changing. oh, this is the way to travel, my friend. >> we're putting really delicate electronics in the harshest conditions on thplanet. it's not the nicest environment for technology. >> i do not want to go any lower than this. it's just bottomless. >> i'm going out here on this broken fin and i assume it won't collapse. this is big stuff happening right now. okay, onward. this is the memory of the landscape. that landscape is gone, it may never be seen again in the history of civilization and it's stored right here. >>> james balog has come here from iceland and alaska with some urgency because what he h

we had news coming out of the ecb regarding the omt program. we saw the new fed program with qe-3. it was really, really fairly light data and so on that was pushing it. the fact we would now pull back is pretty common. we're off about 3% now. frankly probably still have about 4% possibly to go down. a lot of support at about 1370. i think for the most part, we're just kind of stuck in the mud of preelection purgatory until we weed through earnings. >> channing, are you as sanguine as the other guests, or is this the start of something bigger? >> it could be. i think what you have to watch is qe. earnings are going to be very important. the early evidence isn't good. i mean, we've seen a number of high-profile warnings. outside of yum and costco, i know it's early in the earnings season. earnings are going to be key. i think, you know, from a stimulus perspective, we're kind of out of gas here. we have to see good earnings. if we do see good earnings, i think the market could rally from here. i'm not ready to throw in the towel, but the early warnings signs are that earnings season

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in the first debate, we had kind ofn roc omt wch governor romney was both confirming that he would notut new revenue on the table and sinth hwagog b birtanndet sution. you can't sit down with the democrats and say, "i'm going to be bipartisan," and not offer anything. wht e puics ve to offer is revenue. and what the democrats ve to offer is spending cuts. d tt anbaaiwhh fl arbeusnehecod appease their own base effectively, they had both cuts and revenue on the table. that's where we're going t he o f aolion. my worry is the country doesn't know that's what's going to happen. >> kathleen, how would your experience differ if you had watched on nbc, fox, pbs, cnn? diitake a difrence which network you were watching? >> yes, the networks that held much of the debate in split reen iit you to sethe debate through the reaction of the candidate who wasn't speaking. >> and you think that's gfint? >> i think it's significant because it minimizes the likelihood that you're hearing what's being said. and it's tryingo eae teretive frame in which,f someone is eective nonverbally, they can undercut the

the omt is a purely monetary measure that is meant to fix dysfunctional markets.is that right, is that the line of argue mentation? >> we have fixed the rules which apply to all countries in the same way. >> you're clearly going out beyond the ordinary as the crisis demands. is there anything else which you haven't explored yet which you could throw into the bucket? >> since this all started, it's actually now more than five years ago, five years section weeks ago, they had to act in up chartered worries. the interbank market has not been operated. it's not at our will. several banks globally have done more than they ever thought to do. and of course we have -- i think there is -- i expect the focus that what we have done guarantee that what we say, we hold. >> can you foresee any situation where you say, okay, this doesn't work, we have to side step the banking system and give money straight to industry? >> i wouldn't go that far. it's very important in europe that we work full banking system. that's been the roll of central banks. banks borrow from us against co

the central bank crossed a red line when it decided to intervene and expressed conditionality of the omtrogram. >> either monetary policy or qui say fiscal policy and the ecb has started to move already in spring 2010 and now in the more visible way i have to say in this direction. this is not the task of the central bank. if it there is a monetary policy issue or a monetary phenomenon, then the central bank has to intervene. in the case that the ecb comes to the conclusion in its analysis that there is a deflationary market, it has to continue, use all instruments and maybe invent new instruments. but not in this respect now to say if country a and country b meet these conditions, then we will intervene, and what has happened since the president of the ecb made his announcement about to do whatever is needed, he made the statement in july now we are at end of october, so a long time has already passed. and if there is a monetary policy issue, then you have to at that time position dwa and to implement it immediately. >> ever since draghi announced this program, i have the feeling whethe

any sign of the ecb action announcing omt, qe, spanish yields coming down, bank sector rally, you think it's all in the price? >> what we saw earlier this year is that the whole market in europe was very driven by one or two sectors. banks were the swing factor in qe and q3 and the whole market is getting to an equiequilibrie. >> that was just water, right? okay. don't worry about that. talk about banks. finally good news ondeposits. the first rise in six months. greek deposits highest level since may. italian up 2.1% on the month in september. italian bank deposits have hit the highest level on record. french, german bank deposits, irish, cypress, all down 0.1% on the month. so make of that what you will. actually just a quick reaction. spanish bank deposit number, is that sort of reflecting what you've just said? >> i think we have to recognize that these bank deposit numbers can obscure a lot of the detail in terms of who the net holders are. but i think the real message from these numbers that the market will take away right or wrongly is that from the sentiment point of few, the fe

the omt announcement helped cut risk of a sharp economic slowdown and they say their surveys suggestll, the growth is weaker than the bank of england's august forecast. signs on the funding for lending scheme for the mortgage market are encouraging. >> speaking of encouraging, we actually have a pretty encouraging report on the jobs market in the u.s. the claimant count falling versus no change expected. the employment level rising to a fresh high. the unemployment rate at 7.9% compared with 8.1%. it's always remarkable how similar these rates are. nevertheless, average hourly earnings were at 2% year on year roughly in line with forecasts. but again, 29.6 million workers roughly speaking. that is a new high. you can see the sterling rebounding against the dollar. it had earlier in the session reached a four-month low against the euro. this after the weaker inflation data yesterday. we're likely to see a rebound there. jeffrey dicks is around the table. jeffrey, your interpretation of these figures? >> well, i'll start with the policy, if i may, because that's what really interests m

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he says the omt decision helped alleviate tensions in recent weeks and that it is now essential thatreduce imbalances. >> right, so he needs the spanish government to request this so he can do what he believes what needs to be done. that's why he's not independent anymore. above 2% inflation forecast may explain why the ecb defied some forecasts and not cut rates, brought that from 75 down to 50 or parody with the federal reserve. i think part of the problem is that the euro has been as strong as it's been. >> also saying the council firmly committed to preserving singleness of monetary policy. >> how can he do that in. >> the ecb is acting strictly within its mandate so maybe there are a few -- >> he needs to twist some arms to get spain to make this request so he can do what he said is necessary to buy spanish debt and the debt of other troubled nations. he can't do it on the conditionality he put himself as an independent central banker. >> i don't know why is music is playing. coming up, starbucks providing more than just your caffeine fix. their jobs initiative, we'll talk to ho

. >> omt. i'm using too many initials. >> i thought it was the omg program. i think that hollande means the last crisis is over, but he's working on a new one, causing one himself. >> joe, you mean because he's pursuing more of a stimulus approach? >> no, 75% tax rate probably doesn't make a lot of people -- who's still living there? and corporations are probably going to leave, too. but the greek bonds -- >> if there's anywhere corporations are leaving, like we've seen the coca-cola bottling company, they're leaving greece. so while no one loves high tax rates, i think they'll take it over general economic malaise. >> yeah. she's young. we'll see. >> the fantasy of french politics. >> kelly evans, thank you for the numbers this morning. >>> let's get back to last night's presidential debate. john harwood is burning the candle at both ends. joins us this morning. you were up late. >> can't even say my friend. that's now a pejorative, right? >> we're past that debate. >> we were up late. we had a lot of action to keep us awake. >> that was some debate. >> you

and after that, we can talk about omt, but we are ready to act. >> all right.a nice summation of what's going on in europe this morning. >>> let's get inventory numbers from sharon at the nymex with crude down a dollar. what about nat gas, sharon? >> reporter: natural gas is sliding and we are looking at an inventory report that may be a surprise for some on the street, an increase of 77 billion cubic feet for natural gas and storage over the past week. the consensus was for an increase of somewhere between 70 and 74 billion cubic feet. keep in mind, it's still far less than the five-year average. but the fact that it is a little bit more of an increase than storage levels than expected is part of the reason we're looking at natural gas prices slightly lower right now. keep in mind as well we saw natural gas $3.50 this week, gaining about 50 cents in a week. we've seen a little pullback even before the number came out. i'm joined by john woods who is a veteran trader of natural gas here on the nymex floor. and john, it has been an incredible run for natural gas

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