we are -0.3% on the s&p. four days of losses on the cards.we had ben laidler optimistic. douglas cast

futures positive 18 points on the s&p, put 4% on the nasdaq. 57 points into positive territory. e quarters of 1%. this is a bounce back after a four-day slide on the s&p. we can touch on that later. to the bond market, tends, up three basis points. lisa mentioned the strong 30 year option, let's talk about the options and supply, performance of the primary markets so far this week. u.s. investment grade, 60 billion in total through wednesday. the team at bloomberg is counting. in treasuries this week, 132.58 right now. this is a resilient market with a ton of supply. tom: the market has turned upside down. we could talk to lisa about this , but as you mentioned, it is nuts. jonathan: we can talk to lisa about it right now. lisa: a lot of people thought issuers hauled off in august and they are all coming to market now. more than $75 billion over three days sold by u.s. investment grade companies is shocking and broke records for a number of issues. you wonder why not and at what point will some of the proceeds be used for something like leverage our mergers and acquisitions are t

equity futures up put percent on the s&p. trying to get the show back on track. you missed it. tom: within the lines of your cramps, stay in. jonathan: the euro dollar ok. we had a dollar in change in wti. lisa: when you say getting back on track, i knew you were not talking about the s&p up again, you were talking about our last hour. 8:30 p.m. we get ppi data for the month of august. we have seen rising input to manufacturers and this has led some the highest price increases going back more than a decade. people have been experiencing this in stores because companies have been passing along a lot of this gate what this has led to is consumer expectations for the rise to the highest level since 2008. these are some of the most important numbers to watch. high inflation expectations usually beget higher inflation in the future. at 9:20 a.m., it is the 20 anniversary tomorrow of the 9/11 attacks. a lot of people in the industry know people and love people lost in that day. the nasdaq will observe a moment of silence to reflect upon this moment, a pivotal one, as the narc city tr

down durable 9% on the s&p. good morning -- down 0.9% on the s&p. good morning. francisco blanch coming up. do not miss that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. pressure is mounting on congressional democrats to raise the debt limit and avoid crippling default. senate republicans have blocked a bill that would suspend the debt ceiling until september 2022. it would also keep the government operating past the end of the fiscal year two days from now. the leading crude benchmark rose for the sixth day in a row to the highest since october 2018. there are signs that demand is running ahead of supply, and there has been a flurry -- from u.k. bankers. the latest emergency measure and a crisis that has engulfed prime minister boris's government. when it comes to likely republican presidential candidates, wall street's money is on florida governor ron desantis, not former president trump. this after the $55 million ron desantis raised came from the finance industry. boeing forecasts commercial aviation should be back to

we are unchanged on the s&p 500. tom: look at the peco screen, that is where i look at economic data. this screen does not look like the last decade, even the last two decades. five point 3% year-over-year cpi, that is new for america. jonathan: transitory looking different than transitory -- looking less transitory. we are seeing inflation outstrip price. music companies are adapting, but they have some problems going into year-end. tom: i think a select group of companies will. what will be interesting, and what our listeners want to do, is parse out the people that can adapt to this higher inflation. they could be the winners, their margins stay good. jonathan: is supply issues persist. lisa: this is the argument from bank of america saying inflation pressures will get real. a lot of companies have been able to pass along costs to consumers but wagers -- wages are not keeping pace. that means sales will fall. jonathan: is out the -- you saw the downgrade of nike down to neutral on rising supply concerns. this is a

dirty eight on the s&p, up .9%. this is your bounce back on the yield coming i couple of basis points yesterday, up a couple basis points today, and later, we stay on top of the global story and catch up with lawrence boone of the oecd, the chief economist. from new york city and greenwich, connecticut, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news i'm ritika gupta. prime minister justin trudeau in canada one a third term but fell short of getting the majority he was seeking. that mean the lip -- means the liberal party will have to rely on other parties to get legislation passed in parliament. the conservative party once more of the popular vote for the liberals. jerome powell has a challenge this week to convince investors the plan to scale back asset purchases are not a one way to raising interest rates. fed policymakers begin their two day meeting today. they are expected to taper the fed's $100 billion in bond purchases. . boris johnson says there are too many domestic priorities to negotiate a trade dea

." >> five days of losses on the s&p. good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio alongside tom and lisa. the nasdaq this morning, up 21 on the s&p. it is a final leg on the road to september 22, tom keene, the next fed meeting. tom: that is front and center. but what i see more than anything is that you've been really good about four down days, five down days. 1.7%, we have cratered. could you get any more gloomy? jonathan: a typical chapter in the book, the drawdown. anything could change this week. could anything change the fed decision next week? tom: no, the answer is no. but what could change the gloom that is out there? the gloom was tangible. we need to frame up in our conversations on radio and television how you extract yourself from the gloom, knowing you never know what it is going to be. is it going to be earnings? jonathan: let's get the resident gloom. lisa: i think that separates itself from the idea of a downturn. just slower growth going forward. my question is not about the fed, but when will m

on. claims, retail sales, just around the corner, futures in six points on the s&p. down .1% after a bounce in the equity market yesterday. looking at the same thing as you, dollar strength right through g10. euro-dollar negative 1.1769. a lift on yield, 1.3158 on tense. lisa: exciting. i wonder how much markets will move on the print at 8:30 a.m. it has more prints than usual. retail sales coming out and i am curious to see the deceleration we are expecting. what will be the market reaction given cpi and where we came in? are we getting pushback from consumers able to absorb some of the price increases we see. we also see initial jobless claims expected to take up on the hurricane disruptions. and 9:40 a.m., we get the chair and ceo chuck robbins joining a program jon ferro will be posting later on. i'm curious to see how much she talks about supply chain delays, chip shortages, and how much people are adapting their personal offices to work from home. at 10:00 a.m., july business inventory data that seeds into the same conversation with supply chain just ructions. t

on radio. the equity market, we are unchanged on the s&p. s bloomberg. ♪ >> the white house says three quarters of u.s. adults have received at least one those of the coronavirus vaccine. still, there has been a recent surge of cases. tomorrow, president biden plans to outline a new strategy to get the pandemic under control. the u.s. is well behind many other countries and inoculate in. -- inoculating its population. china has moved to complete -- hong kong's election system. in the last 10 months, there were 300 elected legislators. shipments of chinese made cars to a local market rebounded last month. domestic chinese shipments rose almost 50% from july. exports from shanghai, most of them headed to europe. yesterday, the largest cryptocurrency as legal tender. and had a rocky start because of a technical glitch. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in the last eight weeks, there has been a giant realization that

on the week, just about positive on the s&p 500, -16. down 1/10 of 1% on the nasdaq.ay since 42 days ago that we had a move of more than 1% on the russell. the point of tension for all of you, the tension in china evergrand. evergrandis a penny stock facing issues. it is -11% at the close and hong kong. evergrand is negative on the stock, the bond deeply depressed. we will see what happens with the $85 million payment. we have had example after example that the focus will not be on dollar bondholders. we had clarity on what will happen with the local currency bonds in the dollar bond, and we are finding out where the priority lies, making sure the buildings that have not been built get built, and the regulators and officials, that's what they want to do with the funds that evergrand. lisa: what does this mean for international investors in china who say they are trying to liberalize but their actions say something different? jonathan: let's talk with leland miller. is that lehman question mark not the right place to start. bitcoin, -56 percentage points as china says

we are -1.76% on the s&p 500. we are down 2.60 on the nasdaq 100.ch lower on the small caps on the russell. we are lower more than 2%. futures lower and the yields lower. we are down five basis points on tans. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. jonathan: risk aversion this monday morning. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i jonathan ferro. we are down on the nasdaq 100. much more so on the russell. into the bond market, yields lower five basis points, down to 1.3090 on the 10 year. dollar stronger across the board. into crude, wti 70.50. the risk very much focused on evergrande. it is focused on this market. tom: stay with us.

down 13 on the s&p, about .3%. the russell down nine or 10 points. 133.45 on 10's. get the story. stability. every friday in september, the 22nd meeting of the federal reserve. 187.9 3 -- 1.8793. the euro dollar, 1.1785. there is one story people are finding fascinating in europe. the chief economist gave them an inflation forecast outside of the published inflation forecast, which -- the ecb hated the story so much, they came out and said the story was not true. 1.1785, that is a stronger euro. it was suggested all would take was a change in the probability, 0%, no hikes in the ecb, to 10% might be enough. is that enough? lisa: i thought that was well done. jon: thank you, lisa. i appreciate the support. tom: that was overwhelming. jon: back to you. tom: thank you. very good. we welcome all of you on radio and television. this is an important conversation, not to be taken lightly with the silliness. this could go back to when jon and i interviewed bob prince and we struggled with being at the zero. margaret patel has seen it all. listen carefully as she discusses th

futures unchanged on the s&p. s bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. president joe biden is urging california to send a message to the nation by keeping gavin newsom as its governor. polls show he should indeed survive the vote. the president appeared with newsom and repeatedly linked the leading republican candidate larry elder to former president donald trump. russian president vladimir putin has gone into self-isolation, exposed to several people in his entourage infected with the coronavirus. his spokesman says he is healthy and says he tested negative for the virus get more people are back at their desks in london's financial district than at any time in the last 18 months, according to data compiled by google. more than half of the employees in the city of london were in their offices on thursday and emptied out in march of last year with government lockdowns. china will consider new rules for minors. beijing will reportedly set up a nationwide platform to deal with online

we have been talking about the low one 30's for the last month, now the low one 40's, 14080 -- one .408. and the u.s. dollar. lisa: the scope of these moves, we saw actual movement, the biggest move up in yield yesterday going back to february. the biggest gains in the s&p 500 as well. like the fed did its job. fed chair jay powell and the vice chair will be at a fed speak event. i want to hear what they say and i want to hear about the balance sheet and how they view the threshold. we saw a new all-time high in new york on a thursday evening. we saw that we have a new all-time high of nearly eight point $5 trillion for the balance sheet. what's the risk of letting it grow versus starting to taper at a time of economic uncertainty? at 10:00, there's a question about home sales, there has been deceleration. i am curious to see any ramifications for the expectation of tapering. if you look at mortgage rates, they have reached a low of about 3% in the united states. how much could that climb as they pare back some of the purchases of mortgage debt. today president biden is hosting world le

equity futures down eight, -0.2% on the s&p. lliant interview earlier with anna han on her bullish call. it is founded on earnings. david wilson drives forward the conversation that earnings matter. dave: they absolutely do. if you are looking at a comparison between earnings and stock prices. tom: i'm all-cash. i'm looking. dave:dave: it really depends on your timeframe, what that relationship looks like. keith lerner at truist was pointing out that earnings have grown faster than the s&p this year. if you pull back and look at a little more than a decade going back to 2010, around the time you had a low in earnings, it is a different story. over the course of the past year and half, the bull market we had an u.s. stocks, the s&p 500 has really pulled ahead of the growth in earnings. that is the key point. tom: that is a multiple expansion. dave: you could say it that way. that is one way to look at it. but beyond that, you look at the top performing groups like technology, you go back over the last 10 years, you see a far bigge

a list up.2% on the s&p 500. getting your attention, morgan stanley advising the gdp tracking number from 6.5% previously. that is quite a revision. tom: it is a good precursor to get to brian. it is a 90 day one off. when do we see that? i am not sure how they can say it is a discrete quarter slowdown. >> what they expected, a sharp slowdown. they thought it would be evenly distributed. a lot of it has come through the month of august. the ongoing problem we have not worked through, demand is fantastic. supplies is not. we have seen that in every data point this year. september was important because we saw -- we thought these difficulties would ease and heal. september, in the eyes of so many people, it is so important. tom: payroll tweaks for tomorrow from -- brian, you see them bring down assad d august. how do you adjust and invest to the uncertainty of q3? the uncertainties of q4? >> we believe there would be a slow down. when you think about how disastrous the session was and how quick the recovery was, it i

positive 14 on the s&p, an advance on the quarter.ongest quarterly winning streak went all the way back to the end of 2017. equity futures on the nasdaq up .4%. we advance thereby .6%. to the bond markets, quick question. where do you think treasury yields are on the quarter given how it feels? there of five basis points. does it feel like we are only up five basis points on the quarter? tom: you mentioned it is the volatility. jonathan: unchanged on the day. was that your impression of me? that was quality. no one thinks that i speak like that. a bit of sterling strength, some real sterling weakness, tom. this one is getting harder to read. that is the point coming from jordan rochester. tom: let's start the show. this is important. we are starting now. what is prime minister johnson want? does he want a weak sterling or a strong sterling? jonathan: given where the inflation numbers are and the issues with energy, i imagine they want a stable one. is that ok? i imagine the government would like a stable currency and they don't want a

jon: the market reaction, there's not much of one is there? if you bring up the chart, just a little dip on the sf of session highs. tom: but we took the bloom off. jon: a little bit, sure. given where we were monday morning, we succumb away on on this, we woke up at worried about what would happen with these interest payments and here we are sitting staring down the barrel of an $83.5 million interest payment for this company. we still do not know what will happen. lisa: and you clearly have the concern about contagion that china seems to be gauging and preparing for based on reporting. to your point our earlier when you were talking about who owns the u.s. denominated bonds, there was a bloomberg done -- bloomberg story that indicated even chinese officials do not know who owns these bonds and they are trying to figure out who they will he note -- will be negotiating with. we do not know the full story and neither do chinese officials. jon: china making preparations for evergrande -- evergrande's demise. up a half of 1%. tom: i have got a minority position in evergrande. jon: you made one move

equity futures up 12 on the s&p, advancing about 0.3%. microsoft out with a $60 billion buyback. in the context of its market cap, that is not a big one, but maybe that bails out the 50 day moving average for this s&p. tom: amazon is hiring more people than god. i looked at the warehouse yesterday, the median income in allentown, they are going in median wage. jonathan: yields in a basis point. euro-dollar stronger, $1.1824, advancing a couple of tenths of 1%. lisa: 8:30 a.m., the first read on september activity, september empire manufacturing survey coming out yet expect to continue to slow down -- coming up. expect it to continue to slow down. they have been able to charge pretty significant prices, even as their import prices have somewhat slowed down in terms of the pace of increases. meanwhile, at 10:30 a.m., we get eia crude oil inventory imports. the reason i find this interesting is because we have seen direct correlation to how much oil prices have risen their , now the highest going back to early august, with inventories getting depleted. is it simply a supply story if

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positive 0.67% on the s&p, 29 points. ond market, yields are higher, but only by a basis point to 1.3209%. counting you down to that fed decision, special coverage coming live on bloomberg tv and radio tomorrow afternoon. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. . ♪ ritika: in canada, prime and the prospect of another fragmented parliament. trudeau -- prime minister justin trudeau faces the prospect of another fragmented parliament. trudeau won a third term, but fell short of a parliament or majority. a potentially risky showdown with republicans. democrats will include raising the debt ceiling in a bill that could lead to a government shutdown at the end of the month. investors of shell are getting an unexpected $7 billion payout. the cash pledge comes less than two months after shall raised its dividend by almost 40% and started to billion dollars a share buybacks. that explains to raise delivery rates your by the most in at least a decade. the average package delivery will increase 5.9%. some fr

up 22 on the s&p. about a half of 1% on the s&p 500. into the bond market yields higher by a single basis point foreign-exchange not much going on. euro-dollar positive by about a 10th of 1%. 71 .55 on wti. kailey: a nice rebound in the commodity complex. a lot of it comes down to supply and demand. that applies to the housing market because at 10:00 a.m. we will get home sales expecting to moderate month on month because there is not a lot of inventory out there. prices are also high and that may deter some buyers. for oil specifically we will get that crude inventory report. american petroleum institute put out data yesterday showing a massive drawdown and if the eia echoes that, the impact this had on production in the gulf coast. at 2:00 p.m. if the event of the day, the fed will make a decision, language on tapering and socioeconomic projections. specifically relating to inflation. not just when he talks about the tapering issue versus rate hike lift off but also the debt ceiling and we will get questions about trading. jonathan: y

up 20 on the s&p 500. bounce back from yesterday's big day of losses on the s&p come the biggest one-day loss back to make. -- back to may. in the bond market yields turnaround but only little bit. crude turned around a little bit. euro-dollar does not. 1.1654. there is dollar strength in that dollar strength sticks this morning. tom: dollar strength is interesting and maybe it signals the end of the economic estimate. right now for bloomberg surveillance and all of new york city it is about recovery. some of that leadership has come off of deutsche bank. christina riley's interview with bloomberg in celebration of their move to midtown. i have to say come in the heat of this pandemic, we are here, we will stay here and we will open offices. jonathan: does the deutsche bank center. formerly known as the time warner building. tom: joining us is architect matthew luzzetti with deutsche bank and also their chief u.s. economist. give us a snapshot into christina riley and you opening up the new deutsche bank ce

we are down five on the s&p, down .6% off the back of three decent days of gains on the s&p 500. l back just a little bit. our attention is on the bond market. it is about where we were and where we are. to use -- twos are back to 28 basis points, yields higher by a basis point today. we were in the low 60's and early august. they are pushing on percent. tends -- 10s are pushing that. we are starting to price in a bit of a hiking cycle here, starting to have the conversation about how loosening potential tightening -- how loose any potential tightening will be. that is the debate for the bond market this morning. tom: that is the partition right now. it really is two parts. the bulls are saying calm down. jonathan: just for you. let's finish on this, crude. five weeks of gains. $75.11. i have to go back to the call from bank of america with the triple digit crude potentially in the middle of next year and wondering whether we get it this year through winter if we get a cold winter. the power story right now -- tom: here we go, blaming the weather. jonathan: -- in europe is phenome

not such a good morning in this market. -58 on the s&p. there's a bit into the bond market, quite defensive. treasuries come into or three basis points. that's the market salary. we will stay on top of this on bloomberg tv and on bloomberg radio. saturday evening, i'm minding my own business and i get a message about the u.s. open winner and i start watching this interview with her. she is asked to name her three dream dinner guests. take a listen to at the u.s. open winner had to say paid -- say. >> daniel raqqa auto, michael jordan and the third would probably be tom keene from bloomberg. i did my a levels in economics, i was having to keep up to speed with the latest news and he made it in a way using analogies that were relatable and quite funny and very understandable. jonathan: i already knew, watched bloomberg surveillance and if you are watching, good morning. i have to say i'm disappointed. the other issue i have is she understands you? [laughter] tom: i am reading in on tennis like nobody. what i can do, my hockey coach look to th

up 16 on the s&p, advancing one third of 1%, following a downside surprise on the adp report.dp report has been a big downside miss relative to the actual payrolls report on friday will stop that was let's months story -- report on friday. that was last month story. edward bolingbroke of bloomberg highlighting the jp morgan piece, stocks removed to 190 on the 10 year treasury, right now 1.3138. another market where there is huge revision on both sides of the debate. tom: that will get us through september and through the end of the year. what should we do in the market? i love this sentence. you need to be neutral, you need to be nimble, and you need to buy corum debt. noelle corum joins us. it is buy the famous corum dip. how you keep -- noelle: if you think about what is driving markets long-term it is the macro drivers, it is growth, it is inflation, it is policy. growth is robust. it might be disrupted by some of the risks that are looming, like taper, delta variant. the consumer is very healthy. we are unburdened by debt and we are saving. we have the demand. you saw in t

on the vix now. jonathan: your equity market comes in 0.75% on the s&p. crude, let's sit on that for a moment. $76 on wti, $80 on brent. bank of tom: you interpolate it outcome a $3.94 a gallon of gas is one eyeball on where you go as you go to $100 a barrel. should we state the bull case right now? state the bull case where this swoon is an opportunity. >> earnings growth we think can be in the high single digits, but the concern today is whether yields are moving too far, too fast. the issue is that as monetary policy becomes contractionary instead of expansionary, how do we get to this growth rate? we are looking at a strong consumer, strong manufacturing data, all of that to continue. what we are seeing is that growth is being postponed. it is not evaporating in the third year of the market. we can see strong earnings growth come from the top and pricing power because margins are about decade highs. companies with pricing power could show that earnings growth going forward. tom: will be news outstripped any margin erosion? saira: that is our view. we a

your equity market up 17 on the s&p, up 0.4%. we are on course for six straight quarters of gains. tom: it's been choppy. what i would note, even with the equity recovery of the last number of days, the vix still near a 22 level. there is still that choppy tension as we go towards the new quarter. jonathan: euro-dollar, a break of $1.16. the weakest euro we have seen going back to july 2020. strongest dollar we have seen all year. what underpins that move? tom: i'm going to suggest i don't know. finally, what is underlining this quarter is how quiet this has been. jonathan: how well anchored is this move? how durable will it be? lisa: i'm going to provide a potential narrative at my absolute peril. i think it is fascinating to see you move up the stronger dollar, higher yields in the 10 year, and weaker equity performance . how much is this a quantitative easing unwind trade? this to me as one of the questions as we watch real yields rise to the highest since june. jonathan: equities risk off, bond yields higher usually positive for the u.s. dollar. luke kawa of ubs is going to weig

your equity argot on the s&p -- putting market on the s&p, unchanged. it is a bond the -- it is about the bond markets. tom: it is absolutely fascinating. you mentioned bonds. i will let you talk about this with lisa. look at oil. jonathan: on fives, looking at 1%. lisa: this is a question of are we seeing the beginning or is this the end in terms of a response to a global withdraw of pandemic era stimulus. how much will this continue, with five-year notes in particular? jonathan: we have to talk about the german election. the euro weaker by .2%, a break at 117. here is the quote, europe needs a huge rebalancing between fiscal and monetary policy before the euro has any chance of moving sustainably above 122 and a broad-based coalition is unlikely to deliver it. tom: it is absolutely amazing. to the idea, these are markets recalibrating and some of it is the politics of germany, but it is the real yield market where you look at the litmus paper of the negative yields. it is not a breakout but a lesser negative yield pressure. jonathan: how this will any

after 24 on the s&p. the nasdaq advancing 0.33%. there are two interest payments due tomorrow. cal currency bond, a dollar bond. this is the dollar bond. it is trading at $.25 on the dollar. since hundred six $9 million in interest -- $669 million in interest. we have heard little about the local currency bond. we have heard nothing about this one. tom: that maybe the physics of the bond world right now. i need to give you the physics of earthquakes. australia, moments ago as substantial earthquake of nicaragua. not massive, but right up there. jonathan: quickly, it yields are higher by a serious -- a single basis point. there has been no drop for a while. similar move on 30's. 1.8665. tom: you're really yield is that friday is going to be interesting. less negative. jonathan: have we got a positive one anytime soon? tom: my job is not to give opinions. jonathan: we will see how things work. tom: it is going to be interesting, to say the least. we need to dive down into what is left of the theoretical debris of our monetary policy. we do this with julia. julia, what is the theor

six days out of seven down on the s&p. futures are up a little bit, advancing by almost 1/10 of 1%. cpi gets your attention will yields lower. the euro is stronger. crude 71.50. a lift there and i think it's still the call of the week to hear from bank of america on this. talk about the risk, the potential that could come six months sooner if we get a cold winter in the united states. tom: i think it's important. 30 people guessing on whatever the topic is, there is a tendency and when people who are typically in a center tendency moved to an outlier, that gets our attention. jonathan: everyone is woolwich. the next year, q2, the south. is pretty bullish tom: what is the terminal function? jonathan: dpsc. when you look at the south side, they are pretty bullish. when you look at the median forecast, they are still below where we are now so we haven't seen the capitulation on that call. out of china, two point 5% retail sales in china, a huge downside to price and we were looking for seven. the median estimate was seven for

positive 0.6% on the s&p. thereabouts on the nasdaq, likewise on the russell. o unsettling, the move in the bond market. two's, tens and 30's, this time last wednesday, a close at 1.30%. it is the pace of the move, 20 basis points in about a week. a 20 basis point move in a week gets your attention. it is the direction and the speed that rattled this market. what is interesting for me today is that you can turn yesterday upside down in the equity market, turn the bond market upside down. you will deliver today, higher yesterday. equity market lower yesterday, higher today. dollar still stronger for four straight sessions. we push a 94 dollar handle on the dollar index. $93 97 cents. some dollar strength on the screen this morning. tom: this was a really different day on currency markets. there's a lot of nuances, whether it is loonie or peso. jonathan: look out for the central bank speak a little later. lisa: 11:45. tom: how does she know that? jonathan: she's a machine, tom. tom: i'm in the "surveillance" nap by then. jonathan: a dangerous man. i mean, come on.

equity futures unchanged on the s&p 500. we've downgraded september. lisa: the importance and expectation for growth, as well as how clear a read we will get on the labor market, returning in a way that remedies the frictions we are seeing. if you talk about record highs and the incredible momentum behind the s&p, when didst the market reflect the economy? -- does the market reflect the economy? jonathan: jonathan -- said the economy is still broken and he is bullish. lisa: is the reason people are so bullish is because the fed will -- pad companies in the s&p 500. jonathan: what we don't even talk about anymore, d.c. and the fiscal effort in washington. it barely comes up and it is not on the radar. kailey: we also have congresspeople still on their extended researchers -- recess. the tax ways and means committee will start working on that language this week and we are getting commentary out of the likes of joe manchin who is not on board and thinks the price tag is too high. there is the question of whether you can agree to the amount and how you pay

shaping up as follows on the s&p, advancing 0.75%. sterday, the biggest one-day all the way back to may. crude positive by 1% to $71. bank of america, those forecasts for chinese growth, that caught my eye. i know it cut yours. kailey: there's a multitude of factors here, not just the potential default of evergrande. the fact that commodity production is going to be lower, as well as the delta variant. how strict china has been with some of its restrictions when you see resurgence in cases, that sits china apart from what we are seeing in other developed countries. all of that factoring into the forecast for bank of america. jonathan: it is about china, and you've got the perfect conversation. tom: dr. nouriel roubini got way out front of that crisis into thousand five, seeing things up to 2007. a little window right now before we get to the present moment, there was you and i in davos at a hotel. it was a late night. we sat there and penciled out the reversion of the mean of the housing market. you said, it has got to end, and it did

on the s&p, we are unchanged. the big question as we kick off this morning, have we already had an early downgrade to september? lisa: because we are going to get the delta variant slowing the return to work, how much does that prolong the shift of people back into jobs and the jobs data tomorrow will be interesting to that point. jonathan: goldman sachs out yesterday with a downgrade for this year. your read on that this morning? lisa: it follows what morgan stanley did. the slowdown has been more significant than people have thought in the month of august, and yet they are not seeing sufficient rebound in the fourth quarter to make up for that. i think it is serious. academy securities came out with a note showing that if people remain out of these jobs long enough, what is to stop them from getting automated? for those positions to disappear? that seems to be a concern. jonathan: a good point. this is meant to be the road to september 22. it feels like we are deemphasizing the federal reserve meeting on the 22nd

done more than a 10th of 1% on the s&p. the same move on euro-dollar.a little bit more, a 10th of 1%. a weaker euro. yields come in three basis points. erasing some of the move sprayed the move higher over the last couple of days. let's talk about the china story. mr. dalio in a bloomberg radar event saying it's a part of the world will neglect not only because of the opportunity provides but you lose the excitement if you're not there. damien, there's been some excitement in china that's for sure. let's talk about with happening in credit. >> we have to focus on the largest property manager in terms of debt outstanding in china and effectively downgraded to double see which puts it into almost default. you 13 million in cash on hand, -- have 13 million in cash on hand. they will be spending interest payments on bank loans that are due on the 21st of this month. effectively the default is in the works and that's not a good thing. we see the spill over in china credit specifically. all of those bonds trading at a significant discount in the case of one's

carter will vote yes on the passage of s.189. >> for what purpose does the gentleman from new york seek recognition? mr.tonko: pursuant to h. res. 8, mr. morelle yes will vote yes on s.189. r-rl as the member designated by ms. frankel, pursuant to h. res. 8, i inform the house that ms. frankel will vote yes. as the member designated by mr. cooper pursuant to h.res. 8, i inform the house that mr. cooper will vote yes on s.189. as the member designated by ms. manning, pursuant to h. res. 8, i inform the house that ms. manning will vote yes on s.189. the speaker pro tempore: for what purpose does the gentleman from illinois seek recognition? >> as the member designated by mr. grijalva pursuant to h. res. 8, i inform the house that mr. grijalva will vote aye on s.189. the speaker pro tempore: for what purpose does the gentleman from california seek recognition? >> as the member designated by mr. cardenas pursuant to h. res. 8, i inform the house that mr. cardenas will vote aye on s.189. the speaker pro tempore: for what purpose does the gentleman from new york seek recognition? >> as the me

jonathan: on the s&p 500, a little bit of a bounce with the emphasis on "a little bit." futures up 5, 1 10th of 1%. tom: i don't buy it. jonathan: why? tom: one of the first questions and esteemed chairman of bloomberg said to me, tom, what about moving averages? the answer is taken singularly, it is bad math, bad study. you've got to use a set of moving averages, and no one's doing that. jonathan: that's the most fired up you've been this morning. tom: it is. they almost fired me. jonathan: i'm tense, 1.2735. -- on tens, 1.2735. the show would be so different. tom: let me roll over for a minute. jonathan: take a break. wti wrapping down about a dollar on crude. lisa, 71.41. lisa: the markets and how there is not much action, not an incredible amount of data. 8:30 a.m., import christ -- import prices come out. supply chain disruptions on both fronts, how much are import prices increasing as a result and what is this saying about china, the transmission mechanism to the united states? what is the path along rates to the end consumers, fly manufacturers? we've been talking

jonathan: it is the sixth straight quarterly gain on the s&p. we are doing ok. but let's be clear, q4 could really be choppy. we got some issues to resolve, washington being one of them. the federal reserve another. we got to get through earnings season. tom: one of the best things about this show is lisa abramowicz is never on talking points. [laughter] jonathan: without a doubt. tom: the assistant speaker katherine clark of the fifth district was with us, and she was on talking points. they don't work with the mess in washington, do they? lisa: basically, they don't want to give a commitment or give any sense that there's a lot of disagreement right now. we don't have a sense of where the balance of power is in terms of what we will actually get. the fiscal spending cliff is one of the issues that i think has been one of the most understated. we talk about monetary policy, but we are seeing this runoff of some of the benefits. how much will that bleed into consumer spending beyond september, beyond the third quarter, into year-end as we bring forward our christ

on the main two. the federal reserve, and the second-story for the week, china. we are taking this very well right now, up 22 on the s, advancing 0.1%. yesterday was a tidy session, too. lisa: that is the most interesting thing. we are talking about tightening policy and the potential risk from the chinese economy, and no one cares. i am trying to understand. jonathan: someone cares, lisa. lisa cares, tom. good to have her back. next on the program, on tighter monetary policy, an exclusive conversation with norway's central bank governor. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. japanese prime minister yoshihide suga is warning about china's growing military influence ahead of the first in person meeting of the so-called quad group. he said the changing power balance could threaten japanese prosperity. he will doing leaders from the u.s., a straley, and india tomorrow at the white house. beijing says the quad group is engaged in cold war mentality. philippines president rodrigo duterte has signed a law taxing casinos. tax collections will be used for universal health car

it is a snooze on the equity market, unchanged on the s&p and similar on the nasdaq. i know tom is watching. in the bond market, that is with the headlines are, yields higher again and this curve is steeper. the sicko and perhaps because the fed said it is going to begin tapering sooner, and other people are saying it has to do with the chain issues and others saying maybe it's higher wages. the answer really will determine the path of the rest of the economy and friendly markets because these outcomes are not the same. jonathan: what he think that may be the window is closing for the fed? lisa: the question is tapering or tightening. tapering they were going -- they are going to do, a lot of people say it will not make a big difference whether it is january or february. if it is to the point where we see a turn in the economic cycle, what will be the incentive to raise rates? they got to taper fully before they can raise rates according to their own communications. jonathan: your take on this, is that the bond market starting to pick up a little bit more as we push o

. want to spend money off -- on the nft "s— the nft 's. you for being on _ the nft 's. fascinating thank you for being on the - the nft 's. fascinating thank - you for being on the programme. we appreciate it. before we wrap up the business news, i want to show you financial markets. wall street saw quite serious losses monday and that is being felt today by japan. japan was closed monday for a public holiday but you can see japan down almost 2%. the hang seng down by one third but yesterday hong kong lost quite a bit of ground and this is all to do with the ever grand property company that is laden with debt currently in china. it is really causing ripples. you can see the american markets and how they ended the day on monday. now let's take you live to montreal and the liberal party's election night headquarters. they are all gathered there. we are expecting justin trudeau to address the crowd fairly soon. we're hoping to go live to that he does. of course he has not got the majority government he was seeking when he called a snap electi

the doubt legs over 35000 and the nasdaq is on fire. jonathan: the s&p is up as well. the bond yields are in about one basis point. in the next hour, the portfolio manager will join us shortly. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> a divided u.s. supreme court has decided to ban an abortion law. they put the law on hold while the legal fight goes forward. opponents are the measurable ban abortions but 85% of the patients it will affect in texas. the remnants of hurricane ida ripped across the northeast. streets were inundated and traffic was a mess. in central park, more than three inches of rain fell in just one hour. about 2.1 million jobs in the u.k. are still affected by the pandemic. the institute for public i'll see warned of what a hidden jobs cap. the british government is preparing to end its support program at the end of the month. china is ramping up financial support for small businesses hit hard by the pandemic. the people's bank will provide $46 million to lend to small and medium-size companies. the economy has shown further sides of slowdown with more v

it is the biggest one-day drop since may on the s&p 500. much worst on the nasdaq. .9%. yields have come in at 150 on the u.s. 10 year yields. we are progressing aggressively higher. it is 16. 59. we are hearing from chairman powell little bit later this morning. tom: there are idiosyncrasies that we want to watch. the turkish lira is nine to the dollar. i want you to explain substantial further progress and what litter for -- liverpool is doing in football. john: they are the top of the league. tom: they are well-positioned. the french giant insurer, with their support of the gentleman, the lads from liverpool. there is an executive officer who is joining us now. it is client risk. i have to say congratulations on the acuity of your study. you go out and speak to thousands of people. explain why this is different from last year or the others of the thousands you talk to? thomas: we are doing a study for the afa, and what it is important for others to understand is that it is maximizing them. you can see the hierarchy is changing over time. last year, the pandemic was th

we are -0.3% on the s&p. four days of losses on the cards. tom: i love that we had ben laidler optimistic. douglas cast watching. he's very cautious on the market. he looks for a market hurricane. jonathan: i don't know if the sarcasm translates or not over bloomberg radio. they have been really marginal moves into thursday. in about 45 minutes, the ecb joins in. tom: everybody is going to hang on every word of the press conference. you are expert on it. but the press conference may have some real value. she's got to change the dialogue in what way? jonathan: we should get some understanding about the pace of purchases. 30 minutes past the next hour, it is the news conference. at the start of the news conference, you will get some forecasts just in terms of what they do with their outlook for inflation. tom: we just heard from johns hopkins university. the pandemic is no different over there. she's got to be pandemic affected. jonathan: that is the story for the pandemic emerges the purchase program. the key is emergency. are we still in the

on the s&p, we are -0.2%. once again with my partner in crime, tom keene. welcome back. the ecb decision just around the corner. tom: i don't know if it is a big deal or if they will do anything. i have to admit, this is where lagarde gets tested at the press conference. does she want to be assertive? i have not observed that. jonathan: the risk today, a reduction in the pace of

the big guys. one of the big ones. >> 's the one fence spoke about, eli lily alzheimer's drug and then horizon computersnt around the thyroid eye disease drug. >> chris i believe is a j.p. morgan analyst. there were some smaller lesser-known companies such where investors who don't mind risk excited, they could be ten beggars if they hit it out of the park, where some of these companies? >> that's certainly the hope, a weight loss drug and another is athletic which is targeting eye diseases and we have bio chris pharmaceuticals, a rare but disorders. >> it's important to understand that if you don't want to take the single stock risks, we have mutual funds you can buy an index fund that owns a lot of biopharmaceutical companies or an active fund manager. next, roundtable embers will get their own ideas for the coming week jack will tell us smart tvs are finally living up to their name. stay right there. ♪♪♪ 's 's jack, the improvement in picture quality in recent years has been incredible. need to go to again when you're on your 75-inch? interface super come to, i can't they be like my phone and easy to

chevron, one of the few, very modest, chevron up a quarter of a percent but one of the few bright spots on the dow up 27 cents. the energy parade continues over on the sumberger, conoco phillips some of the stocks leading the index. there you go. energy one of the few bright spots, sliding on the s&p 500 and nasdaq which is applied materials which got downgraded from new street research to 140-dollar price target. chip sector is south, applied materials following the treasury yields spiking. we've seen it hit all sorts of tech sector, growth stocks. applied material down as you can see now nearly 7%. been that kind of day, bond yields up. tech getting hammered. nag dak in line getting hammered >>> china's pinduao taking a hit, down 7% at this hour, that stock. from big tech to gaming, evs, cryptos, china has been dropping the regulatory hammer left, right and center, sending shockwaves throughout the world. our "countdown" closer who has 3.5 billion in management still thinks china has good returns for the global investor. he joins me now to explain. ahmed, great to see you, i think one country investors were a little weary about right now is china, s

the house that mr. payne will vote yes on s. 1301. as the member designated by mr. albio sires, pursuant to house resolution 8, i inform the house that mr. sires will vote yea on s. 1301. the speaker pro tempore: on this vote, the yeas are 219, the nays are 212. the bill is passed. without objection, the motion to reconsider is laid on the table. the speaker pro tempore: for what purpose does the gentleman from california seek recognition? >> mr. speaker, i ask unanimous consent that the ordering of the yeas and nays on the motion that the house suspend the rules and pass the bill h.r. 978 be vacated to the end that the motion be considered as withdrawn. the speaker pro tempore: without objection, so ordered. the speaker pro tempore: for what purpose does the gentleman from massachusetts seek recognition? >> i ask unanimous consent that it be in order at any time to take from the speaker's table h.r. 5305 and the senate amendment thereto and consider in the house without intervention of any point of order a motion offered by the chair of the committee on appropriatio

jonathan: from new york city this morning, we are up 15 on the s&p. radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. introducing xfinity rewards. our very own way of thanking you just for being with us. enjoy rewards like movie night specials. xfinity mobile benefits. ...and exclusive experiences, like the chance to win tickets to see watch what happens live. hey! it's me. the longer you've been with us... the more rewards you can get. like sharpening your cooking skills with a top chef. join for free on the xfinity app and watch all the rewards float in. our thanks. your rewards. >> committed to fiscal 22, as yo