our opec and saudi arabia in charge, or is the -- are opec and saturday via internet, or is the marketarge? tom: there are those that believe we will break $30 to -- $40 to $30 per barrel. the more progressive it will become, the lower level we reach. when we get to the low levels, that is when we put in the bottom in my view. we may have put it in, but i don't think there will be a big ounce to come from here. if we go even lower, we will get a more powerful self correction. mark: what about opec members that are having trouble balancing their budgets? what dollar per barrel must they have to stay profitable? and how much pressure will that put the cartel under to act decisively you -- decisively? tom: each member will act differently. but you have touched on an important point. venezuela nigeria and iran are all sensitive to these low prices. it's hard to see the first two of those navigating 2015 without some kind of debt default or major restructuring of their financial house. mark: if there is some sort of that default or major restructuring, talk to me about the ripple effects. w

perhaps some cracks coming in opec.e we'll have a guest on opec breaking for you in just minutes. meantime existing home sales hitting a nine-month low. diana live with those numbers. diana. >> well, brian, not a great start to 2015, and whatever you do, do not blame it on the cold because the biggest drop in sales was in the west where temperatures were, dare i say, temperate. still up 3.2% from a year ago, but last january was so sluggish that it's not hard to beat that. realtors calling it a notable speed bump and blaming a lack of homes for sale. take a look. inventory-wise things do look worse out west. california las vegas, denver all seeing big drops in the number of homes for sale compared to last january. even moving east in texas and chicago, not much for buyers to choose from. miami is the out liar, and we talked about over building there. new york is doing better. boston not so much. why aren't people listing their homes for sale? could be that they can't afford to move up. home prices have started to increa

opec production has no increased because opec countries have substantial budgetary obligations. and the input into their budget, their income is sales. you may ask, well if that's the case why did they allow oil price to drop so substantially. let me walk you through a thought exercise. saudi arabia produces barrels a day. much more per capita than in other countries simply because oil is very heavy subsidized as it is in other opec countries. a third of that production is consumed domestically. that leaves 6 million barrels a day for the expert market, global sales. at $50 a barrel you're making $300 million a day selling six million barrels a day right? now what if you decided to cut production by three million barrels a day which would offset the kbrout in production in the united states that we've seen over the past several years? go down to three million barrel as day of exports. does anybody think prices would not go back to three digit level? well over $100. but let's be conserve tiff and say $100 a barrel. you would be making exactly the same amount of money. so now we n

oil jumping again today after opec cut its forecast for non-opec oil supply.cross the united states have been lowering the number of riggs and service. joining us barclays head of energy research commodities michael cohen. good to see you. i know you had one of the most bearish forecasts on wall street. 44 i think, on brent for the end of the year. do you take that higher given what we've seen the last few weeks in term of rebound in prices? >> yeah i think we will consider marking the market just on the last strength that we've seen. but we do believe that oil prices still are likely to go lower from here. i think there's a couple reasons why. we have to understand why we got here in the first place. you know, refinery margins have been exceptionally strong. we're in the dead of winter. and the market is going to focus on several indicators as to why prices are expected to be higher later on in the year. and the market has been very focused on the rig counts. so what we saw in the last couple weeks is rig counts falling pretty precipitously by about 80 or 90

opec is producing 30.we find a legitimate counter balance to opec and the idea of a north american energy confederation makes some sense. some folks look at me crazy and i'm not saying it would work together but we need to talk about what we can do to counter balance what o.pec and the shenanigans they've been doing and stop their ability to manipulate the price of oil. >> i have a simple question. if we're not going to talk about managing the price and output what would this proposed new consortium do? it would be an industry advocacy group? what would be the stated goal? >> for one thing it aligns the interests of us mexico and canada. for the last six years we fought about the keystone pipeline. it would make a lot of those things make more sense because we're in this together. with the reform in mexico their production will rise. the shale boom in the united states. the canadian oil sands, production is rising. we can at least act as a standalone unit to opec. as it is now they can run amok and do what

there is core opec, the gulf states. strong balance sheet. then you have distressed opec.th. distressed opec would like to cut production. you look at the stress -- distressed opec and the countries demanding that cut what are they going to do? they have no other option. what will they do, bomb each other? it is unlikely to happen. >> time for a data check. u.s. futures down .2%. not a lot of movement in the tenur tenure. -- 10 year. germany with an unconditional rejection of greece's offer. nymex crude it down a little bit. >> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." olivia sterns is off today. in europe, the soap opera continues for the ecb. >> ecb has decided it too would like to communicate. john farrell joins us from london. you have the first ever minutes of an ecb meeting. is it a good read? >> i have in my hind -- hand -- they with the lid. this is the minutes of the meeting. the consensus on qe, pretty clear. they say it was the only option. fairly vague. we know there was a 50 billion euro bond buying plan every month on the table. they decided to raise

, that's all of opec.tough time meeting demand. joining the panel is former head of the tda, glen mccullough. i want to talk about this, have you done it all, in charge of the tba, you're in the oil patch, and i want to ask, could it be possible we are winning the war, the crude oil war they think saudi arabia started, could the american producers be winning? >> absolutely america is winning, america is winning with ingenuity, designer and entrepreneurial spirit, and it all began with this hydraulic fracturing, and shale oil and actually accessing the oil and natural gas deposits rich throughout the country in other areas of the united states. the united states is winning but in a global market, as you mentioned, and opec is certainly a strong player. charles: here's the thing, what would help? because i hear people saying now is the time to change policies like exporting crude. of course we had another ugly incident with a rail car blowing up, exploding. maybe now is the time for the keystone pipeline. wh

because and that is still dominated by the opec cartel - - cartel. this will give you a thought exercise. despite what we see today going back to 1973 global population was around 2 billion to 87 billion global gdp since the 1973 has increased by a factor of 14, 250 million cars on the road then and 1 billion today. global demand with 55 million barrels a day now is 88 million barrels a day to day. bulblet get opec production in 1973 and what it is today we are in for a large shop because it sits on 72 percent of the oil reserves which is the cheapest to produce the yet in 1973 produced 30 billion barrels per day you would suspect with the massive growth of population and gdp that opec production would have increased? today it is 28 million barrels per day is the fundamental story of his has not increased and it is obvious because opec countries can substantial budgetary obligations and the input into their income is energy sales so they have to maintain a particular price to balance their budget. the might of the alleged price is drop? today's saudi

is it fair so say the rise in supply whether the shale revolution in america or opec and non opec countries. that's the reason oil prices have come down so much? >> maria without question one thing i often see, opec didn't decide to give us a christmas present this year. the reason prices are dropping over the last year from $3.27 a gallon to $2.17 a gallon is because we're producing so much more energy. that's how it works f. we continue to grow our energy base in this country, we become energy secure and reduce the price at the pump for consumers. the benefit they've receive sod far if it were a tax cut would be equal to more than $100 billion in the consumer's pocket. >> you've talked about the importance to the keystone pipeline. the president continues to say he's going to veto this. what are you going to do if the president vetoes this in the next couple of weeks? >> that's the great irony. we're producing more energy strengthening our country, benefitting businesses throughout our economy. on one hand the president takes credit for hit and on the other hand he is trying to block it.

and the nigeria comments from today, unless the opec nation from nigeria has been promoted to opec leader of saudi arabia, it doesn't matter. >> what about natural gas? they told us the price would drop and the production would drop off. it never has. >> let's jump back to the rig count. as these rigs come offline, then you're going to start to see the supply of oil decrease and i think we're going to see that come in the spring and so therefore, i actually think and a lot of people actually think right here oil is going to find its base and so -- and i think that's a positive. >> all right. >> very good. thank you all. appreciate your thoughts. >> thanks, everybody. >> busy week coming up. >> we have 50 minutes to go in this session. keeping an eye in the nasdaq. right now red arrows pretty much across the board. not by a lot. >> coming up more economic data out today. home sales fell to their slowest pace in nine months. diana will have a special report on what's ailing the housing market. that's coming ahead of the spring selling season. >>> and up next a new terror threat issued again

we are looking at most of the company in non opec linking first. take the lower cost of oil because these are long-term investments. and they can bear the brunt of lower oil prices, particularly saudi arabia as we saw from yesterday's news. >> when i look for the price -- this is for the traders out there -- look at a penny stock. it bounces around a lot. can go up 20% on nothing. i'm looking at wti. flying high the one day. what is going on with the price of oil? why is it behaving this way? >> it is extremely high uncertainty in the market. opec-related uncertainty, demand relating uncertainty coming from europe. on top of that, you have got the euro versus the dollar. all these aspects have led to increased volatility in oil markets, which if you look at the money they have gone up to 60%. historic highs. we are looking at high volatility causing the up-and-down, increase in decreases we are seeing in oil prices. >> the question i will ask you is when i've asked a few people. this time last year, no one was saying that this was an oversupplied m

charles: let's shift gears, i think that opec is already taking a victory.y came out with 2015 -- they say that global demand is actually going to go up and be over 29 million barrels per day and the non-opec supply will drop significantly. and that was just a month ago, that number reflects swift action. >> the news is oil up even higher, going up to $53. and there's still a lot of crude sloshing around out there and there's no doubt that there's going to put pressure on prices. and what does that mean for the american consumer. >> yes, your way to fix low prices is if you have supplies and flow and demand, i don't know if i believe opec, but we have that many rigs, supply comes down to midback your spices, even if this goes forward, i think that we have found eight bargain. >> you all know that it's more of a bear, but now it's more neutral. so it's time to start shopping around. charles: by the way city said oil was 20 bucks. and something tells me that they might be short. >> there is one issue that has not been resolved, and the earnings beat consistent

brendan: let's revisit a question we had -- is that it for opec?called for the death of opec many times, but this time it is for real. the saudi's have nobody to talk to. who in the nigeria or iran or iraq or libya was there to really make a decision? this is a next essential crisis foresight radio. -- annexes central prices for saudi arabia. tom: stay with us, futures up to, this is bloomberg "surveillance." ♪ >> this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get to our top headlines. the governor of oregon is being pressured to walk away from a decades long career in politics. he is under investigation. he has been abandoned by most of his party's leadership. north carolina is launching an investigation into the murders of three young muslims that were gunned down inside a chapel hill apartment. the fbi is trying to determine whether religious or ethnic hatred was among -- were amomngng the motivations. renowned new york times columnist david carr has died. carr wrote the media equation column and penned a memoir about his fight with drug addiction. >> th

opec is betting on a big u.s.ery, that's where the demand is coming from in the new numbers, yes the jobs report was better than expected and the revision was very good. however, i want to see that actual growth turn into gdp, and until it doesn't, we had citi say they expect a run towards $20 a barrel, and i think ultimately we're probably going to falter in the 52-55 range before we settle in. melissa: gas prices rising again today. up for 14 straight days to $2.18 a gallon. still cheap according to aaa, that seems like we've seen a bottom there. what do you think? >> short-term bottoms okay, however, like i said before, i want to see real u.s. growth justify what opec had to say and see the price per gallon is going to go for the consumer at tank. we've proved that a cut in oil prices doesn't flow to the bottom line. the consumer hasn't shown up for retail sales to let us know that's doing well. i want to see where the great savings comes from and get the u.s. engine going again that's why i think we'll falter

and opec is cutting its forecast of oil supply growth from countries outside opec by the most in at leastrs. the organization predicts that non-opec nations will pump about 400,000 less barrels a day than previously estimated, because of the recent slump in oil prices, putting pressure on u.s. drillers to idle rigs. shell and many others have curbed spending plans. up next, a self-described adventurist responsible for this viral video -- a volcano diver -- yes, he dives into a volcano -- he talks about how he uses technology to capture some amazing video in one of the hottest, most dangerous places on earth. ♪ cory: you might think he has one of the coolest or craziest jobs in the earth. his experience is startups that connect people with once-in-a-lifetime adventures, and it led to this viral video called volcano diver. 3.7 million views on youtube. he is now out with a new volcano video. this time he was sponsored by a handful of technology companies. what inspired the latest stunt? check this out. sam/l: i always look for experiences most people do not know exist, and i wanted to make

opec is cutting its oil supply growth from countries outside opec the most in at least six years.zation it is the non-opec nation will pop about 400 lap -- 400,000 less or day than estimated because of recent price rows. the seven-month slump putting pressure on u.s. trailers for companies like shell, chevron, and many others to curb spending plans. "bottom line" will be at the top of the hour. >> 20 leaders meeting in turkey. structural reforms for europe. all of these reforms are forthcoming. greece convinced finance ministers to advance its debt obligations. the former imf first deputy managing director john will join me. we will also have more coming up from washington. peter cook on the meeting from the white house today between president obama and the german chancellor. those stories and more when ice you would've to minutes. -- when i see you in a few minutes. >> a viral video. yes, he dives into a volcano. he will talk to me about how they use technology to capture amazing video inside of one of the hottest and most dangerous places on the earth. ♪ >> sam calls himself and

do you think opec can do anything? >> not really. opec in individual countries are in southern states. although they try to coordinate and defend the price by adjusting for production and so on. it may be that later on when they defend the price, they would consider the libyan people have been suffering and they would not impose--they would let libyan companies to produce much more in order to compensate. >> always good to talk to you. thank you. >> a pleasure. >> 41 suspected fighters in one of the biggest military operations in northern sinai in several months. airstrikes from a group called the sinai province, which has pledge i i allegiance to al-qaeda. >>> al jazeera journalists mohamed fahmy, baher mohammed have now spent 406 days hyped bars in egypt. they along with our colleagues peter greste were accused of spreading false news and supporting the muslim brotherhood. charges that they and the al jazeera deny. peter greste was released earlier this week. mohamed fahmy, baher mohammed are still in prison, and al jazeera demands

the opec and non-opec nations to adjust their projections. >> reporter: declining oil prices have also affected the nation, which has fallen more than 10% since last august. but it has led to an unexpected development in prices near the board were malaysia's neighbor singapore. crowds of singaporeans are now flocking to malaysia for cheaper shopping. this shopping mall in malaysia sells the same clothes as in singapore, but at less than half the price. sales at this shop surged by 15% in december compared to the same months the previous year. >> we're happy. we can shop and buy a lot of things here. >> they are having a serious effect on malaysian people. the price of imported fish and rice. >> meanwhile, the weak currency is having a major effect on people's lives. the price of imported fish and rice has risen. local people like to have breakfast at street stalls but with rising import prices store owners are struggling to maintain their standard prices. one way they can cope is by cutting the amount of rice in each dish by nearly 20%. they also reduce the size of the other ingredient

>> the next opec meeting is in june.definitely a lot of time for them to assess the situation. if opec takes no action intra-june, even if they keep their supply constant, the oil supply from the united states, the declining supply together with the demand remaining stable, it should eliminate the surplus from the market in the second half anyway. with or without action from opec we would expect this extra supply to evaporate. we would expect oil prices to continue in the second half. we don't think it is necessary for opec to take action intra-june. -- in june. >> one of the most interesting things about the removal of the euro cap was speculation about who would be next. a lot of that speculation is on gcc companies and saudi arabia do you think saudi arabia could possibly loosen that peg to the dollar? is it sustainable? >> the move by the swiss national bank, happening at a time when we saw a massive drop in oil prices and a massive u.s. dollar has given to some change in gcc currencies. i think saudi arabia sits in

that means diversifying our sources of supply away from the opec countries. yes, it means more efficient automobiles. it also means more expiration and development of oil and natural gas here in our own country. in order to free ourselves of opec, we must become less depend on outside sources of fuel. the answer obvious to anyone except to those in administration, it seems, is more domestic production of oil and gas. we must also have wider use of nuclear power. with safety rules, of course. there must be more spending on research and development of substitutes for fossil fuels. and years to come, solar energy may provide much of the answer. for the next two to three decades, we must do things like mastering the chemistry of coal. additional multi-billion-dollar programs are not the answer. recently, there has been talk of excess oil company profits. i do not believe that we've been given all the information that we need to make a judgment on this. we should have that information. government exists to protect us from each other. it is not governments function

we need more energy and that means diversifying our sources of supply away from the opec countries. yes, it means more efficient automobiles. but it also means more exploration and development of oil and natural gas here in our own country. the only way to free ourselves from the monopoly pricing power of opec is to be less dependent on outside sources of fuel. the answer, obvious to anyone except those in the administration it seems, is more domestic production of oil and gas. we must also have wider use of nuclear power within strict safety rules, of course. there must be more spending by the energy industries on research and development of substitutes for fossil fuels. in years to come solar energy may provide much of the answer but for the next two or three decades we must do such things as master the chemistry of coal. putting the market system to work for these objectives is an essential first step for their achievement. additional multi-billion-dollar federal bureaus and programs are not the answer. in recent weeks there has been much talk about "excess" oil company profits.

the plunge in oil prices has some members of opec concerned.hey want to discuss options, but the saudis are stand in the way. all the drama as we get an early start on your money next. he's out there. there's a guy out there whose making a name for himself in a sport where your name and maybe a number are what define you. somewhere in that pack is a driver that can intimidate the intimidator. a guy that can take the king 7 and make it 8. heck. maybe even 9. make no mistake about it. they're out there. i guarantee it. welcome to the nascar xfinity series. >>> let's get an early start on your money. u.s. stocks pulled back from record highs yesterday. barely moving right now. wall street waiting to hear from janet yellen. she testifies before congress today. the stakes are high as the fed debates when to raise interest rates. raising rates too soon could hurt the recovery. >>> plunging oil prices may be scaring opec. an energy meeting to address the crude oil crash. last time opec met, it decided to keep the output the same instead of cutting sup

adding support, opec raising its 2015 outlook for demand. the rise in oil prices are certainly a contributing factor to the rising gas prices but other factors, like seasonal maintenance, and a switchover to a more expensive blend of gasoline for the summer driving season is what's making it more expensive for consumers to hit the road. >> we're seeing a bounce from crude oil for two things. one is rig counts. they shut down some. they had to. and then from there, we have opec coming out with greater demand for 2015. these two put support in the marketplace. crude oil rallying, it will have an impact on unleaded gas and brings the prices up. we'll also be moving into the driving season switching over the refineries. so unfortunately, i think we're going to see some higher prices at the pumps. >> reporter: analysts are forecasting another 10 cents hike in the coming weeks saying we could see prices back to $2.75 by the summer. >> i think we could see another 20 to maybe 25-cent increase in unleaded glass. >> reporter: there are those saying i

other bullish factors include opec.aster economic expansion will help demand growth accelerate. throw into the mix bad weather lower production. that is boosting the outlook for oil. chuck into the mix, an etf tracking oil. also we have to gauge tracking expectations for oil volatility. those are the bullish factors. but the rig -- he says it is still fragile and the recent turn may turn shale production profitable again leading the industry to keep up output. goldman sachs says reduction intra-u.s. rates isn't enough to sit efficiently curb output and address the current excess. arguments on both sides, what you think? is the worst over for oil? manus: time for the top stories on bloomberg. greece may request an extension of its loan agreement, a step that could ease a standoff with creditors over the future financing. greece and the euro area members have been at odds over the formula used to extend the 240 billion rescue the lawn -- beyond its and of february expiry. infighting that is undermining eighth fragile truc

opec says there will be less of it. opec cuts. they reduce the u.s.ply growth rate for this year. this goes to the microeconomics that the markets are buffeting up against. >> there is no evidence that u.s. production is going down. if anything, oil and shale producers. they need to produce -- they need to pump even more to make their debt servicing. u.s. inventories goes to the roof even . >> opec's reducing the growth forecast of not opec supplies. they are saying is this is the way we see the world but they are not at their own numbers. >> this is why the market is obsessed with recount numbers. those numbers have come down. it takes about six months before the declining counts to lead to a decline in production. >> where's ethan harris on u.s. growth? >> we need a short-term. 25% s&p 500 spending is energy-related. $1.6 trillion junk-bond market, 16% is energy-related. oil prices stable of $50, that stock is trading $.70 on the dollar. it will go to $.30 on the dollar. we think there is not question the drop in oil prices europe -- is bullish in t

and outside opec. i think it was between the opec countries but also russia came to vienna with mexico. i'm convinced the countries would have reacted differently. >> i was there at the meeting. >> i'm sure of that but then they offer nothing. why should we care? we have the lowest cost production. my piers lookeers look to me to do most of the effort. they stieddecided it was not up to them to lose market shares which is the truth and they decided to let the market go. probably the price went down very quickly and i think they expected it and that is what he recently said for everybody. >> $70 barrel. >> but there again it's complex for them because it's not only a question of demand it's a question of supply. >> it was really a tough time for everybody and people still speak about it but life continues as you know. >> you can watch steve's full interview by tuning into the cnbc conversation tonight. well worth a watch for your nshlg energy positions. we must hold our ground. this is the warning of ta

so far we haven't seen any meaningful production cuts from outside of opec and many u.s. producers can turn a profit as long as the price is above $40 a barrel. plus those who can't turn a profit doesn't mean they can stop drilling. that's right. i'm talking about something called held by production contracts. many in the u.s. have lease agreements where they only hold the right to their acreage as long as they keep drilling and producing. so even if they're losing money they may have to drill anyways so they don't lose what could be a valuable lease hold. how about opec cutting production. it's not happening. so they don't seem to be inclined. what about stronger global demand? the decline in oil is a huge boom for economies and lower prices will lead to more robust demand for crude, seeing some of that in europe. but the bulls see it happening quickly. i'm with the bears because i won't see a meaningful pickup in oil demand yet. even though there's a million barrels in excess floatling over the world today. but the battle between the bulls and the bears rages regardless

opec decided against cutting oil production last year. tumble in the months following. could a big change be at store at the pump? that's next. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you have enough money to live life on your terms? i sure hope so. with healthcare costs, who knows. umm... everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor.... can get the real answers you need. start building your confident retirement today. shopping online is as easy as it gets. ♪♪ wouldn't it be great if hiring plumbers carpenters and even piano tuners were just as simple? thanks to angie's list, now it is. we've made hiring anyone from a handyman to a dog walker as simple as a few clicks. buy their services directly at angiealist.com. no more calling around. no more hassles. and you don't even have to be a member to start shopping today! angie's list is revolutionizing local service again. visit angieslist.com today. major: here's our new traine

opec and saudis are talking to russia, also. so may be russia, plus opec.hen that rally above $100 will happen even sooner. >> morgan, thanks. we'll hold you to it and have you back and see what happens. >> thanks. >> coming up airplanes, satellites and magic kingdom. a lot of movers today. first another headwind for gold mann sachs, may face a loss of $3 billion. what is the potential fallout for investors? we'll debate that next. >>> competition for trader of the year continues. in the ultimate portfolio challenge. keep up with every move in the halftime report. plus exclusive insight and analysis behind the trades. sign up now on cnbc.com/pro for your limited time free preview. the portfolio challenge on the halftime report. in my world, wall isn't a street. return on investment isn't the only return i'm looking forward to. for some, every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. our commitment to current and former military membe

shell or the russians do you think opec and traditional producers are in a game of let's just see how long we can survive these lower prices and to challenge what happened in terms of those nonconventional suppliers because they believe it was the u.s. and others that created this decline. >> i hear there's high cost production that's growing. high cost production in north america in particular. why should they as low cost producers shut in to allow the high cost oil to be produced. i think they do want to test this market and test it pretty hard. >> do you fear the u.s. shell boom is challenged before it's even really begun to be a long-term part of our energy mix. >> it's come up 3 million barrels a day is quite extraordinary. we haven't seen that happen anywhere in the world. you look at the rig count which is dropping like a stone now. i think you'll see that shell is shell. it will really got parts of the shell can sustain $30 oil but those on the fringes of that will struggle and we'll see eventually by definition it will flatten out and drop. >> let me ask you a question you ha

most of these have had opec in the middle. opec has been the party that cut out the supply, so the market didn't really have to balance. now we have opec that is declared ichts through saudi arabia unwilling to cut supply. we were higher in production last week than at the beginning of january. if we're hoping for a supply cut, we're going in the wrong direction. this is why, ed. this is an important point. we went to the bakken and to the midland and calgary. once a rig is producing, it will keep producing. it takes a lot to shut down a rig. it's ease where i to not drill new wells, but to close a rig is hard. >> well, not only is it hard, but the rig that is are being closed are not exactly the most productive ones. if you look at the data on rig count versus production, about 70% of the production is coming from about 30% of the rigs being deployed, and guess what, those rigs are not being shut down. those are the ones that have initial production rates and sustainable production rates that are many times larger than the ri

it just seems that the news we're getting out of opec is changed. >> all right. so if you -- you are a betting guy. you have to bet on the markets every day. are you betting that it continues to move higher and if so by how much, and are we going to go lower and by how much? >> well, with the price action that we had recently since we went through yesterday's highs, technically it does say that we should test up to $60 in the very short-term. whether or not that holds true in the long-term, i don't know. i don't see anything happening fundamentally that's going to keep it up at those levels. >> appreciate your perspective. ty, up to you. >> well, sue, as bob mentioned just a moment ago, energy stocks have been rallying this hour. with oil prices soaring over the past few days oil service companies most notably perhaps are going along for the ride. dominik chu has been tracking the big movers in the oil sector, and here's some that have done pretty well. >> well i mean if the overall oil sector is filled with all different kinds of companies, you got the explorers

and opec which used to control the oil market here in the u.s., think about it opec used to be the all-importanteral of oil, not so much anymore. there are so many more players now. they've really lost standing in this marketplace. shep? >> clearly have. gerri willis we'll look for you at 5:00 eastern on the fox business network. if you don't know where to find it, foxbusiness.com/channelfinder. coming up next, the support that the united states gives jordan and what could the nsa do? our spy agency. there's a problem because we don't have a lot of eyes and ears on the ground in this fight against isis. where's the nsa in the middle of that? that's as our coverage continues live tonight from amman. stay with us. test. >>> a fox report now on the deadliest train crash in the history of the nation's second busiest commuter railroad. now on the scene of the disaster in new york. it's north of new york city. a jam packed rush hour train slammed into an suv at a railroad crossing last night killing the driver and five people on the train. investigators say the electrified third rail crashed through t

opec's production is basically flat and all the growth has gone elsewhere. of it to american frack ers. so what they said, they said enough. we not going to cut production and i think what they are playing is a glorified game of chicken. they are saying, we can take lower prices longer than the cheaters. meeting budgets is not the question. they are over $100 of barrel in venezuela. even the new cost of the full cycle cost of drilling oil for american fractures -- betty: $10 oil will cause pain for everyone? gary: once the wells are drilled, what does it cost to get you out of the ground? it is about 10 dollars to $20 a barrel. wilbur: i disagree, with all respect. you'll have to tell me you wrote another book. here is what i think you are missing. oil has gone down $50 a barrel. the amount of excess supply is about two percentage points. all you would have to have would be a few of the big people cut back 5% or 6%, which would be cheaper than the $50 hit they are taking. this is a lousy trade. this is already a mistake and trade on the part of the cheaters.

i have to admit i would not have been the the first to opec opec speaker -- to expects speaker boehneruch person. the way they have been struted around washington after g.o.p. margins in midterms, you would be forgiven this if you thought lobbyists were corporate potent tates. they did help with their money and power and americans voteing for the republican party that had a net gain of 9 seats in senate 13 in house, but it seems that speaker boehner gets it understanding that g.o.p. dominated those midterm elections because most americans are sick of a lawless administration that is no less authoritarian because our president grims and charms while we issues eticks rather than doing hard work of negotiating and reaching a consensus. speaker boehner says now this is an issue for senate republicans and democrats to work out. the house has passed and sent its bill that would fund department of homeland security, and is is styne the president's fiat. speaker boehner told fox news sunday if dhs funding runs out senate democrats and their leader, president obama tor blame. he is right. we al

know is the forecasters are guessing, and that is before the chatter of what we heard an emergency opec meeting. traded under $50. xec for you home gamers it's a mid size oil and gas producer. major acres in texas, and oklahoma back in the third quarter of last year before the collapse in oil prices hit, it looks savy they sold off noncore assets strengthening the balance sheet and allowing it to focus on its holdings. it slashed the capitol budget in half. and still forecasted down three to plus 8% growth. still going to grow. more important though, management indicated that they would be willing to make acquisitions if they see deals that are truly worth doing. the stock has rallied nearly $23 since the price of crude stopped to plummet in mid january. the bounce seems deserving considering how the run has been. let look at the chairman. he had a better sense of where the company is headed and what is going on in the oil industry in general. welcome back to mad money. good to see you. thank you for coming on. i have to tell you, you have done a lot of things right. you raised the capi

saudi arabia will do what it wants and so will the other opec countries.s kind of fallen apart as far as power. why would you hold a meeting? who cares? betty: their next meeting is in may. as we go to the opening bell after the news out after greece and euro financing accepting the agreement -- ♪ he's out there. there's a guy out there whose making a name for himself in a sport where your name and maybe a number are what define you. somewhere in that pack is a driver that can intimidate the intimidator. a guy that can take the king 7 and make it 8. heck. maybe even 9. make no mistake about it. they're out there. i guarantee it. welcome to the nascar xfinity series. >> welcome back to "in the loop." the dollar rallying ahead of janet yellen testimony. in athens, greek stocks rising on the news, european stocks rising on the news the euro region finance ministers have approved greece's package of economic measures, paving the way for the extension of the country's bailout agreement, a four-month extension. we are sort of pulled by two factors today, but rea

opec has not been cutting production.at january, opec has been ratcheting up production to just shy of 31 million barrels per day. a technical point -- if you look at the oil price over the last 50 days and you take those 50 prices and divided by 50, you get the mean and that minas $58 per barrel, just north of where we are trading right now. that is called the resistance level. traders tend to sell when they see that they are close to those numbers. perhaps that is a few of the reasons why we might be seeing it little bit more attention paid to the fundamentals and the technicals amidst what was a pretty serious decline in the price of oil. >> let's talk about short covering. was that what happened? what sparked the rally we have seen? the charts are amazing to see. >> it kicked off on friday. while i don't have a crystal ball, we do see a little bit of a correlation between a report that came out in the united states that gives you the number of rakes that are actually in operation and the numbers that have been idled.

. >> but it's not opec threatening to push prices up again. it's a union dispute at refineries around the country. we'll have the details. >> if something doesn't break free, it will spread. gerri: is the government lying about the unemployment numbers? one influential ceo is causing a stir with his comments. >>> after republicans in the house vote to repeal obamacare what's their plan for a replacement? the alabama congressman leading that charge will tell us. >> my legislation instructs the appropriate house committees to move forward with alternative solutions that aren't run by the federal government. >> also the former governor of indiana, mitch daniels, is here. he is the new president of purdue university and he is starting a much-needed revolution in higher education. we'll hear all about it. >>> coca-cola's new milk hits the shelves. did you ever think milk could be so extraordinary? well we did. gerri: it's a premium brand, premium priced milk but would you drink it? all that and more coming up on "the willis report" where consumers

. >> today opec's secretary general thinks we've hit a bottom.t can arrange 40, 50 bucks, he said we'll be back to $200. >> i don't think we'll see 200 any time soon. i agree that we're at a bottom. if you look at the fundamentals and technicals right now with oil, they hit a 17 and a half year -- bounced through it. that's usually a sign of a bottom. the other thing we haven't brought up yet is the strike by the united steelworkers shutting down refineries. that's another issue that will bring it. one other thing is the value of the dollar. you know, one of the reasons why oil stocks were getting hit. us stock market was getting hit. the fear of deflation. right? when we've had every major bank in the world printing money to fight that, maybe the market turnaround is saying they will have success. >> phil we have you on record. this is the bottom. a lot of people will put money to work because of this. we have the opec secretary general and phil flynn on the same page. we have steve forbes on whether the strong dollar is a black swan event. i di

opec will defend its market share against the united states by drilling even more. supply goes up.rices will remain low in my opinion. >> as well they should. you would do the same thing in their position. i agree with you. supply and demand. it will be a long time before we get out of this dilemma that we're in and probably, i would bet prices will probably go lower before they go higher. but the real issue is how long. and i think it will be a lot longer than people think. liz: we're up 138 points. thanks to all of you. we'll talk to you next time. thanks. we do have new developments today. by the way, this is a day-by-day story. this ugly labor battle that could shut down our vital west coast ports. the ports are open again. the talks between the owners and the dockworkers have now in the past 24 hours turned even more tense. we sent robert gray live to get the real story on the ground. robert. >> hey, liz. that's right no talks ongoing at the moment. they'll continue tomorrow, i'm told. we did see the crane operators back in action, a limited amount of them. that's part of the

is it going to be opec, russia? countries like iran and venezuela or are we going to work with our closest friend and ally canada, to produce our energy here at home. look what it means to our consumers. a year ago, the price at the pump for a gallon of gasoline was a dollar higher. if it were a tax cut, the drop in gas prices at the gas pump would be a $100 billion tax cut in the consumers' pockets. where do you want the energy produced, who do you want to be the energy leader in the world, the answer is pretty clear? . they want to work with canada. when the president says no. no tom investment and producing more energy in this country, no to the very nurk we need to move that energy around our country safely and remember it is oil produced in my home state in north dakota and montana, domestic oil we are moving to refineries. when the president says no, that is music to opec's ears because it puts them right back in the saddle doesn't it? when our energy is declining because that very investment is blocked, opec

it does not really compare very well to opec, which we know is only 12 countries. opec to work together. imagine how much harder it is for 8000 u.s. producers to work together. betty: where does the oversupply come from? is it out of opec or is it out of the u.s.? brad: in the beginning it was out of the u.s. a lot of production came out of the united states because of shale production. production out of iraq, it took many years for that to happen. and there was a civil war in libya. so production was offline there, and those things came online again as shale continued to grow. that is why you have this big glut that continues to exist in the market. betty: bradley olson from houston. thank you. u.s. manufacturing pmi is out. alix steel has more. alix: coming in higher than estimated at 54.3. estimates were for 53.6. this is different from the isn that we get that has been around for a very long time. the market data is relatively new, and according to michael mckee, it does not move markets very much. that said, it is over 50 over the expansionary number, and it i

we had opec deciding not to react to that, and effectively letting the u.s.be the new swing producer. and almost testing u.s. shale oil and renewables, and seeing what energy markets would do and refusing to cut. we saw countries like iraq and libya using more than expected whereas this year both of those countries have come down. we've seen oil recover faster than many thought, even a month ago. francine: what happens next? these are things that we've been talking about a in-day out. it is pretty clear that it is competition between opec and shale gas producers. we have kind of lost control of the market. is it going to remain volatile? is it going to hover near 60? guest: i think they see it as they are the lower-cost producers and they shouldn't have to keep making space for the higher cost producer and losing market share. that is what was happening. the reason prices were stable was because the drop in middle east production was being offset by rising production in north america. i don't see a change in opec policy. the big question will be how much u.s.