julie: we are getting headlines from opec, its latest report on production, and opec is saying it is retaining its growth forecast. in the meantime, total february output from opec fell 175,000 barrels a day on iraq, nigeria, and uae. , theboosting its output biggest gain since 1997. all of this from this opec report. this comes on the heels of a report earlier today saying that interested in freezing production until it raises production more in line with its historical output. , couple of other things producers opting to pump with losses rather than stopping output contributed to that 2016 non-opec supply forecast becoming more uncertain. this is a monthly report that comes out from opec. there's outputt will fall in 2016, and we are watching oil on the back of all of these headlines. it already was lower for the day because of the iran news, continuing to fall. here you have it, the latest trades and it is bouncing around the bottom and not seeing a lot of reaction. it is not anything very different from what we have been hearing from other sources in terms of the iea make a forec

more insight, a former opec chief economist, dr. sami, how bad must things be in saudi arabia has indeed billion dollar loan according to reuters. >> most opec countries are highly dependent on oil for and exchange, the government budget, expenditures. the persian gulf, saudi arabia, kuwait and others are in pretty good shape over a period of time, but saudi arabia looking for additional funds to supplement more avenue although they support the capacity because of price decline. they can probably sustain its because saudi arabia has debt capacity to raise 8 billion, the more concern is other opec countries that are for like venezuela, nigeria and others, they will have a more difficult situation. liz: i don't know who wants to lend to countries, not much of a turnaround, though we have oil up 3%. to this concept of a freeze. three weeks about this possibility, is this a fairytale? can opec ever find religion and decide to freeze? we will do it if iran and everyone else does, you know iran doesn't want to do that. >> correct, absolut

ourif opec as last -- lost -- power, what is leading the market now?> oversupply and at least some of the countries have done this, to see how weak production might be. we are in a big experiment. the first of the shale era to see how they will respond. it has been far more robust than some opec countries thought it would be. will seetually we about u.s. production falling and then we will be in the rebound. the rebound could put a cap on it again. scarlet: paint a picture of u.s. supplied, it is extraordinary. quickly have the bart chart -- u.s.hart, it shows that supply has come very close to what saudi arabia had back in 2012. this is remarkable. >> what is even more remarkable is what they did not use, this adding up all of the crude oil and liquids, biofuels. the u.s. is producing more like 14.8 million barrels a day against the saudi's 12 plus and the russian's 11 plus. alix: you can attribute the recent rally to this conversation that opec, even if they do not have a lot of power, even -- it doesn't their rhetoric have enough to support the mark

relevant, and what is on the upside now if it is not opec? is opec still relevant?nder $40 per -- under $40 per barrel. group on what leads the market to the upside now if it is not opec. >> opec is added to the supply. we see how weak the production might be. we are in the first big experiment, first experiment of the shale era to see how shale is going to respond. it has been far more response -- far more robust than this market share venture. eventually we will see u.s. production falling. and then the next episode of what the rebound will be. >> let's also painted picture of u.s. supply. i hadn't realized how much u.s. accounted for the supply. you came prepared with us. supply shows is u.s. comes close to what saudi arabia had back in 2012. this is remarkable to me. >> it is remarkable on a slight you didn't use. if you add up a lot of things like crude oil or natural gas liquids. the u.s. is producing 14.8 billion barrels per day -- 14.8 million barrels per day. rallyhave seen the recent attributed to a conversation of a opec freeze. rhetoric that seems to hav

of the non-opec producers, russia and the united states, they're the largest. the russians have been encouraging a freeze, but the united states hasn't said anything about sending a representative to this meeti in. the market seems skeptical of an accord taking place here. it would be easier to achieve consensus if all the parties got e we can see another leg lower but not necessarily drastic as the 20s. more realistically like in the upper 30s. >>> still ahead, the hotel battle heats up but would the fight for star wood raise the eyebrows of regulators. . >>> a report late tonight that the white house is expected to withdraw its california legal action against apple. that report, according to usa today which cited a government official. the government had asked to delay a hearing last week when the fbi said it was working a third party to gain access to an iphone used by one of the san bernardino shooters. amon, what do you make of this report, and does it suggest that the fbi, the justice department has cracked into that phone? >> it does suggest there might

so you will not see any cooperation in the foreseeable future in opec as far as production. arabia will continue to put up barrels of oil on the market and will continue to compete for market share with iran in asia. i know we have gotten some bullish headlines out of china today, but that is clearly a sign that something is still wrong in that part of the world. that when you have saudi arabia and he ran competing in a market , in a market that is in the doldrums, it does not spell higher prices. carol: you don't think the middle east competing, at some point, they will not see that it is hurting them to go so low? at some point, is there a breaking point? stephen: there is, but it goes beyond the economics at the standpoint. as i referenced before, we have sunni and shia chasm in opec. the stakes have never been higher. in many respects, saudi arabia cannot and will not finance iran's growing hegemony. also, the inelasticity for oil is falling. because we are introducing substitutes to the markets. electric motors, hybrids, driverless technology. if saudi arabia does not a

it said opec pumps 90,000 less barrels per day last month. all positive signs that will support oil prices. but it's not just the iea report influencing prices, it's also seasonality. >> usually around memorial day is where we have our climax here to see if the market really is a strong usage market. again, i can't foresee it yet. i think it's going to be a big driving season. and i do see the prices holding firm. >> $40 is a key psychological level for oil prices. we're edging closer and closer. but does this rally have legs to break through and hold? >> crude oil, i would think we're talking about $36 to $42 near-term. i think with a very strong driving season we could work our way probably to the high 40s. >> last year we saw similar bounce in oil prices in early spring but in late june prices dropped dramatically again. the concern right now is the recent rise in price might actually encourage more production. which would only depress prices once again. >> i don't think this is a market that's a runaway bull market. there's a lot of inven

how much do you trust this kind production from opec?embers outside of saudi arabia will produce as much as they can. they need the money. mohamed: yes, i agree they will produce as much as they can. that is where they are. -- on come back on screen the stream, that is what will happen. but the other opec members, they are at maximum outflow -- matt: they can freeze at those levels? course they can. that statement has no level. stephanie: why? mohamed: because they cannot produce anymore. either you need it or you are protecting market share -- saudi arabia. it is clear. produce the maximum and drive out the high-cost producers. much does this helping struggling to hit inflation targets? mohamed: this helps. the last five weeks, oil and commodities has come back, talk of a u.s. recession that has declined. and i think there is a tactical change in the inflation outlook. i do not think it is a strategic change. >> is that your answer to mark barton's question? i think it is tactical, but it is not structural enough for me to be confident

, atook at opec 8:00 we will see the opec monthly oil report. for february, 33 million barrels a day. we will see if that number grows or falls. there are a number of interesting details that we will pull out of the port -- out of the report. jon: thank you very much. a big weekend for china, a lot of data. pressure is already mounting a couple of months into the year to reach the gdp target of at least 6.5%. over the weekend, the central bank governor said there is no measure tomajor boost growth. recent data points to a slowing economy, but china's industrial output and retail sales, slowing in january and february. enda curran joins us from hong kong. how do these figures, these data of the week, playing into all of that? enda: like you say, we are getting a decent read on how china's economy has started 2016. notwithstanding seasonal , it is an disappointing start by all accounts. we are seeing sluggishness in an area where we were hoping for traction. hading into this year, we interest rate cuts, heavy fiscal stimulus, and a sweep of measur

will we have to take a rain check for that much awaited meeting march 22nd bout of opec? that question has u.s. markets off to the dow jones industrials high but certainly below at this moment at 1 point we were down 179 points, we are lower by 28 points but it is oil put, it is red. traders at the stock exchange and the nymex, oil brought us down from being cut 179 points, what is getting get off of the floor? >> it is amazing the market is doing as well as it has given all negative data points we are throwing in earlier today. clear the we opened higher, had a very sharp reversal of of serious resistance levels, dow up 17,000, nasdaq $47.50, the rustle around 1100, the s&p 2,000, the euro reversing was a big part of that. right now we are looking very good with a chance of may be going green before the end of the day. liz: i can bring it to you because oil and the pact brought the market's down. we have been jumping, major indices, suddenly came down when it turns out a pact can't get its act together. they have a march 20th get together because robb doesn't want to joi

russia is one of the non-opec producers that may be there. obviously they're more interested in implementing a freeze at this point. but unless you get all the parties together, and even if you do, consensus is so hard to reach. >> that begs the question, can we see oil back at $50 or $60 a barrel by the end of the year, as some strategists have gone on a limb and are expecting? >> yes, some of the investment banks, some of the analysts out there, they are holding firm to those forecasts. they think 50 or 60 is possible. then i have others on the other side of the table that are saying, no, actually from here, this is a little bit maybe of a head fake run-up, we probably are going back into the 20s again and there's a possibility of that before things get better. i think you've got to settle in for a bumpy ride this year. i think 50 to 60, very optimistic. >> gasoline has been going up just a little bit where i buy it in suburban new jersey. what are we looking for over the next few months and then into the fall? >> you know, it's difficult t

is opec, is saudi arabia really to blame for all of this?e they painted themselves into a corner? >> the saudi's are not to blame for this. we had a shale revolution. we had 5 million barrels of new supplies coming in from shale. we also have supplies coming in for mother areas. so, $7 million -- barrels a day -- 7 million barrels a day of new supply coming in. they did the only thing they could do. they had no other choice but doing what they did. rishaad: would a freeze, which is being touted at the moment, a freeze and output at january levels, an agreement with russia on the table possibly, would that make any difference whatsoever? we would still have a output at these levels. surely it would still incentivize people to cheat? absolutely. this frees is nonsense, a joke. i don't understand why people get so excited about this. if you are bankrupt -- venezuela, bankrupt at $100 a barrel oil is of course super bankrupt at $35 a barrel oil. , it means for russia nothing. rishaad: we have even more production coming possibly. we were talking

>> is opec still a factor.k online mean for the energy market and how will krud impact countries like russia and venezuela. >> here we go again, profits from home flipping hitting a ten year high sparking fears that trouble is brewing in the housing market. is there a reason to worry? a live report straight ahead. >> final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ there is a house in new orleans ♪ >> announcer: live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is box. >>> yes. the eggman himself. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell. counting down breaking economic data we'll see on jobs. adp yesterday, today weekly unemployment claims and that's at 8:30 eastern and filings are expected to hold steady around the 270,000 level and then at 8:30 fourth quarter productivity which is expected to be revised slightly lower. futures have been trading slightly lower for most of the session

weaker dollar, april 17th meeting of 15 opec and non-opec nations. where do we go from here at $40? >> we have to absorb this and digest it, but like i said over the last few weeks, this market could only really go higher. it was to the point where there was no more negative news that could come out and things are falling into place here. stock market goes down, the dollar is not run, a way, the talk of the opec nation getting it together of sorts. driving season coming ahead which will be a big driving season because of the lower prices. everything is going its way here. now the market has reached subjective. i had a long-term objective of 41 1/2. liz: i remember. >> we spoke about that two weeks ago. i hope the fellow that was against me didn't have a big position. he's in bad shape if he stayed short. but again, let's put it this way, now we're going to digest this and the inventory reports may tell us if we can get there. we're about two weeks ahead of my prediction, i thought we wouldn't hit $40 until the end of this quarter. so right now the market is showing good health here,

opec is going to meet with of this month. in the meantime, prices continue to rise in anticipation of that if it's going to happen. looks like the days of declining gasoline prices are over. my local station got the lowest of 1 houston, texas $49 in new jersey it's back up to $1.54 already. >> still haven't seen those numbers in a while. thank you, bill. >>> man, what a day and the rest of the week huh? >> i know. this is just the beginning. it started yesterday. we hit 60 degrees. now we're well into the 60s already. this warm weather overachieving on this tuesday. 65 outside in central park. just a fantastic day to ep joy that pre-spring warmth that we have going on. this is going to continue for many days. beautiful afternoon taking shape. record warm weather coming not today, the record is out of reach for today, but tomorrow and maybe even the next day we could have the warmest days on record. a little bit of cooldown. still temperatures will trend above average. here's a live look. we have a weak front trying to move th

caroline: when we see the eventual meeting, opec and a non-opec, set to occur, does anything wholesome terms of a level cap? >> my opinion is no. essentially, iran said we will not abide by any freeze until we have reached presenation levels, higher than where they are today. saudi arabia and opec's strategy cause the collapse. gaining market share. if they freeze production and iran produces any grace to pre-section level they will lose market share. last time i checked, saudi arabia and iran were not geopolitical friends. caroline: we need demand. >> demand is weak. we need supply adjustment to see something positive on a sustainable basis in the oil market. caroline: on that optimistic note. great to get your opinion. bloomberg analyst on energy. still trading higher. are up but over the week we are down, the european close is next. have a safe journey home, a pleasure presenting with you. do come back. ♪ >> it is noon in new york. i am scarlet fu. >> i am alix steel. mark: i am mark barton. this is the european close. mark: a breakthrough in brussels , eu leaders reached an agreeme

abc: i think the dialogue within opec is encouraging.come to terms with freezing could -- freezing reduction. -- freezing production. our we are beginning to see companies -- you look at the very gross reduction -- gross production. there is going to be some constraint and supply in the medium-term. this will be a stabilizer for price, regardless of what you're beginning to see at the present. the price can go anywhere. i was expecting to see changes. prices are the way they are today, we are going to be seeing constraint and projects that will increase supply. we will believe the supply supply -- the supply demand fundamentals will see -- guy: d.c. supply picking -- do you see supply picking up? abc: africa demand is rising good -- is rising. we are seeing that improving. if you look at the global demographics, you will agree with me that even though there has been oversupply for the past number of years, demand will continue to grow. even when you the emerging markets, india is very aggressive with growth. though itrowing, even is been

and non-opec.could trend a little sideways and it could see some correction is speculators say we have done too much too quickly. if we look on the balance system, the market should move a higher. this escalator can be very helpful. everyone wants to see the trend developing. they may quickly jump on that and push process higher. and pressure from the bank that will make them sell and hedge their production forward and that may lead to more pressure on the forward curve. few people are talking about $20 oil at the window very quickly? >> they can quickly happen again. you could see the neutral zone come back, you could see more yemen oil. you could see faster oil from iran. the market has everything in the cards at least for the next couple weeks. thereafter, things will be a more -- a bit more bullish. >> thank you. we have got to take a break but we will be looking at an online pushing japan's prime minister to act. >> this is trending business coming to you live from hong kong. sri lanka central

oil and opec, we did our work for opec, they don't have to do anything right now.oil has rallied significantly. oil is at a point where i think it might take a break, running against real resistance levels even if we talk 30 to 40 and top end of that range. nothing has changed as far as dynamics going. there's an excess supply. >> you should have been a bond trader, just with that outlook. >> just read the big short, interesting one. >> fit into your thought process. have a good weekend. >> you too. >> good stuff. bojangles is still trading below the ipo price even soaring at an earnings beat yesterday. up 22% today as breakfast wars are heating up and creating more competition. joining us now is bojangles ceo, welcome to you. >> how are you doing? >> great to have you here. there's interesting contrast playing out in the market, el pollo loco and the stock is reacting nicely. how do you make sure, markets are quick to take out those who they don't think have the life, how do you make sure you can keep growing? >> we've been doing it for several years, it's not som

--you think opec will see will freeze and cut production?harles: i don't think opec will give us relief from the problem that we have. that, theat to do saudi's have to be convinced their cutbacks should be -- that they should, once again, be the swing producer in the oil business. they will keep opec aligned by forcing their oil into the market and keeping prices low. the situationat is going to get better because we are not investing the money that we should in all the big oil companies, including chesapeake, for the same reason that with office down so much and profits off so much, they can't put the money back in the ground that gives them the new supply. and the result is that we are seeing the oil industry slow and stop and start to reverse around the world, for lack of capital expenditure. this willec knows happen. i think we will see a gradual improvement in the second half of 2016 and prices. and then a notable improvement in 2017-2018. scarlet: thank you so much. that was charles maxwell. life still ahead, herbal short seller will

anna: we are getting more detail on the april meeting of opec.k at the risk radar and tells us where we are trading. let's focus in on -- we've got the dollar in there, pretty flat. despite the fact that we had a couple of officials talking about hawkish -- talking caucus late about the possibility of rate rises in when they might paul: -- when they might fall. sans: w.a.r. p says francisco in atlanta trying to push that agenda. that seems to be the move. the reason i have been moved there is the ramp up an oil is causing a rally in dollar ruble. well essential banks in russia -- will central banks in russia tolerate that? they may come in and intervene. bloomberg's first word -- anna: let's get to bloomberg's first word news. kumutha: the yield on bloomberg's tenure treasury rose -- 10 year treasury rose yesterday. they may raise interest rates as soon as next month. >> evidence by economic data that justifies a further step at one of the coming meetings, for the steps in raising rates possibly as early as the meeting scheduled for the end of ap

opec members but not all of them.ome of them have opted out including libya and iran and with the resignation of the iraqi oil minister last week because it's unclear that that country will have a delegate at that meeting and while the saudis may show, they have no reason to freeze or cut production and they have made that clear. the russians is have been encouraging a freeze and they are likely to play along but there's been no talk of sending a u.s. delegate to attend this meeting. with all of the parties not coming to the table here the market seems a little skeptical that an accord is going to take place. it definitely is going to be easier to achieve consensus why everyone is going to be there. with oil trading under 40 expectations are here for another drop, maybe not as drastic in the 20s but mid to upper 30s, certainly realisticity moment. >> oil watch remembers focused on opec it's uber that our next guest says could be the biggest threat and here what was said this morning on cnbc. >> when somebody or an ene

it will be the strong winds the opec up out of the southwest.st fiftys and 40s. a quick shower late. we've adjusted a keeping saturday try. still the middle of march verye little chance for going to see if anything accumulate. looks good. putting our running up to speed. peek at fort 80 coming out of twinsburg as you had around the curve and up temporary no big deal as you head into town also a nice claim this morning's stuff that is popping up it's with lane and i've interaction. and in and state panel and columbus last night. i plus that indian strong they talked for keeping the number they did that last evening scores off the glass. so they fired 32 three-pointers last nighte- they hit nine at them but they went on to win 72-63 count. that's when the mavericks will visit downtown cleveland. he returned to cleveland late monday night decisionan the final game therefore again. when they try to head stay ahead these never one seat both are earned in struck out five batters.re the calling cap next .net is a standstille yesterday was uco pro days.te the browns had

they got rid of opec. there is no opec.e other countries that rumor the price up so they can make a little extra money. opec broke up. tended. so when i read this stuff, i always think that's someone -- some country trying to get oil up a little. they succeed. there is no opec. none. it ended. that was the point. the cartel broke up. that's why oil fell to 26 on, yes, february 10th. >> right. >> retail, pier 1 for the quarter, in line, 18 to 22. estimate was 20. we'll get urban tonight. >> pier 1, nice they affirmed since they've not affirmed for the last three years. it's been a disaster. alex smith has kept his job. urban, we want to see. the companies that have done well when you look at retail, tjx and ross stores. those are the winners. they buy stuff from the guys who don't have too much inventory. that's the winning trade. >> yeah. >> last week a losing week for shareholders in valeant. that stock came off dramatically. the announcement began with the return of mike pearson. they say they will host a conference call

nicole: a violation of nearly 6% yesterday in hopes of opec production cuts. coming close to the $40 a barrel mark. 39.46 a barrel. lauren: the president had to capitol hill to boo lawmakers but may be a waste of time. nicole: march madness officially gets underway today. we will tell you who made the final cut for the tournament. 5:23 a.m. in new york thursday, march 17th. happy st. patrick's day to you and welcome to "fbn:am," your first look at today's markets, the latest breaking is and what to expect the day ahead. nicole: presidential candidates now heading west ahead of next tuesday's contest. both parties will have primaries in arizona and caucuses in utah on march 22nd. democrats are set to hold caucuses in idaho. for one or donald trump claims significant victories in tuesday's primaries on "the o'reilly factor" last night talking about potentially running against democratic front-runner hillary clinton. >> we have a little run in two months ago and i helped her a lot because frank to her numbers came down very big after that. that was my only real c

remember, there is no opec anymore. there is no opec.rent countries try to talk up the price of oil by saying these things. all you have to do is listen to saudi arabia. they're the only ones with the excess capacity. there is no opec. there is none. >> right. you said that. there is no opec. >> well, just trying to make the point there, trying to drive it home. >> saudi arabia -- >> there is just saudi arabia. >> there is the opening bell. >> wait until they start fracking there. holy cow. >> s&p on your screen. at the nyse, bailey house, providing housing and services to people with aids and hiv in new york city. at the nasdaq, it's politico hosting america's fiscal future at the nasdaq. and mohamed el erian, chief economic adviser at allianz and ben white, cnbc's political contributor, doing the honors today. >> things are happening very, very fast. we've had reversals in gold. we've had reversals in the dollar. i just urge people, don't make -- this is an emotional moment for stocks. i would not take action right now if you feel like

how do you invest in the opec outlook among other things?ike kelly is at seaport global securities and joins me now. you heard what dom said, i assume. after this rapid run-up, the odds are over the next month, a short period of time, chances are oil will not move higher still. what do you think? >> i guess all you have to do is own valero. >> simple. >> we look at the next month, we think the next 30 days is a very crucial period and we'll get either -- in our eyes, a ramp back to 50 potentially, or we could see a retracement down to the 20s. and the critical factor in our eyes is this mysterious meeting that is potentially going to happen between march 20th and early april, between opec, russia and maybe some other nonopec producers where could have a coordinated freeze. just spent the week marketing accounts in the east coast and i think the consensus thought there is you do have a coordinated effort, we push potentially much higher, going to 50, that doesn't happen. the focus is going to return to bloated inventories, across the world. a

analyst say the price jump has to do with various market forces involving opec and some refineries cutting production in response to an oversupply that we saw earlier this year. 9 is on your side trying to find you the best prices on fuel.we found overnight these three.in cincinnati: 1-64 at the kroger on paxton avenue 1-73 at the speedway on east 10th street in newportand in lawrenceburg, 1-56 on west eads parkway... coming up ... winners and losers ...donald trump puts on a big show on super tuesday ... but did he win 'enough'?why his competitors say ... the race for the nomination is not over yet ... plus ... dancing with the stars won't look the same this season ..who's twirling into the sunset and why .... you're watching 9 on your side the super tuesday results are in. democrat hillary clinton and republican donald trump won big across the map. both of the presidential contenders one step closer to their party's nomination. here's abc's stephanie ramos with all the details from washington. pkg :super tuesday is over with both frontrunners in each party cementing their lead. clintonth

and non-opec oil exporters plan to meet in moscow on march 20th to discuss an output freeze. at least they're meeting is what some of the bulls might say. >> we'll see if anything comes out of it. jeff gundlach predicts those assets will struggle in sympathy with oil, calling crude the key to everything. >> i know there's a lot of belief right now in risk markets. i think risk markets now have a very poor risk-reward setup. if we use the stock market as a proxy, it seems to me that the s&p 500 maybe has 2% of upside and probably 20% of downside for a 10-to-1 risk-reward ratio. >> last week he said double line was planning on closing out some of its stocks purchased in february. he suggests unless oil rallies another $10 a barrel or more, in his words, a lot of companies are going to go under, which will kill the banking system. on gold, he predicts prices will continue to rise and hit $1400 an ounce. gold prices today, let's have a look. just below flat. he's calling for 1400. we've seen resistance. every time we got closer to 1300, we haven't managed to push through it. gene

you have opec or at least some members, 15 opec and non-opec members will meet with ex, or with iranither way in april to do what? i don't believe anything these people say. >> i agree with you. right now, what i'm looking at is 38 1/2 up to 40. i'm scaled in seller. we need a price correction back to the downside to get rid of excess supply of crude oil. even if they did get together and do come up with something they're talking about freeze in production which keeps at same level we had when it was in the mid 20s. even if they did that we're still heading back to the mid 20s. right now i'm very bearish on crude oil. we're in oversupplied market. numbers came out less than of a build but there is large build and excess in the market. only way to correct that is much lower prices. liz: call it one million barrels per day in ex-excess of the demand. great to see all of you. teddy, chris, alan, never gets old. it is nut here. we're waiting for any decision out of missouri of the want to let you know that. still too close to call on republican and democratic side. second we get that inf

how much do you trust this kind of reduction in production from opec?seems like most of the members outside saudi arabia are going to produce as much as they possibly can. they need the money. but i think that is where they are. this is maximum production. libya comeback onstream? what will happen to iran? for most opec members, they are at maximum up performance. matt: so they can freeze at that level? mohamed: of course. that statement had absolutely no value. stephanie: why? mohamed: because they cannot produce any more, so of course they will freeze at that level. either you need it -- venezuela, nigeria, ecuador -- or you are predicting market share -- saudi arabia. bailout will of a this be for central banks that are struggling? mohamed: this helps. what has happened in the last five weeks? oil and commodities have come back. talk of a u.s. recession has declined, and currencies have supported inflation in europe. i think there is a tactical change in inflation outlook. i do not think it is a strategic change. david: is that your answer to mark ba

opec ando wait for what they decide.that we are not really seeing any great action from opec countries. the market could see a movement going into. francine: if people like you need to make a call on it, is a good time to get back into the industry? shot toil prices have a the downside in the early part of this year. we see normalization from those levels. it does look like it's breaking higher. can break in to the low to mid 40's. it's going to take some time. you've got a lot of excess energy around. you need to pick up the seasonal demand before you get there. we could see oil prices in the mid 40's. tom: jump in if you would like to discuss. we talk about demand. is the demand dynamic of oil in europe normal in any way? think for the oil question, the most important issue to think about is the impact this has at the ecb governing council meeting next week. there is a lot of talk about pressure on draghi to deliver additional stimulus. inflation is not moving in line with targets despite the bank having brought on a t

this is exactly the problem that opec countries face. not russia and saudi, it is russia and saudi against tankers and oil. michael: that is going to be coming down a little bit. inventory estimates have been just sort of striking. i think what is interesting though is that crude prices against those charts have not been crashing down and going further south which i think is a little bit of a signal that the short game in oil is starting to come to an end. at should be -- those should -- normally super short oil but between positioning and between probably there is -- drillers see that chart too. it ultimately, you know, at some point when that inventory gets to 100% -- francine: are we underestimating the lack of liquidity in the markets and the impacts it could have on the banks? energy and also negative rates? michael: let me try to take that question one by one. as it relates to energy, i'm sure that is the big thing. jpmorgan was out a few days ago. they have ample equity to cover their energy book and all of that kind of stuff. i t

a meeting will involve opec and non-opec companies.n russia and oil producers put a cap on the crude output. poisedork plaza hotel is to go up for auction next month, ending two years of uncertainty. david and simon held a mortgage on the hotel and schedule a foreclosure auction for april 26 according to a person with knowledge of the matter. that is your bloomberg business flash. i did not realize donald trump owned this in new york as well. tom: it is an amazing place. they happy to your room going in the main lobby but the bar has been closed for i think pushing 10 years. caroline: not enough martinis. tom: it is like the bar in london. it is a big deal. it has been a mess for at least a decade. when the donald trump to buy the hotel. that would solve everything. francine: i actually went to see the famous plaza hotel. there you go. the bank of england. jimmy joined by murray. when you look at bank of england today. mark carney has the weakening pound and that is continuing to go downward. there is a lack of confidence because of th

mark: tell me about opec. of movement in the price to thispartly due notion that russia and saudi arabia will freeze out, and we gather a meeting could take place in the next few weeks. you see this happening and happening an impact? has ahe potential freeze positive impact. we look at oil prices on a long-term basis. opec is producing near its capacity. , as demand continues to increase, what is that demand will be filled by? u.s. and u.s. shale producers will fill long-term supply. u.s. shale is here to stay. producersselma shale are earning the same rates of return a $40 that they used to at $90. tell us how that happened. $40 oil will be the new $80 to $90. that producers have done by cutting the cost of drilling each well and also increasing the recovery rate of each well they drill. he used to cost $10 million to drill a well that would produce 500,000 barrels of oil. the cost ande double the production, to increase the break even. see a way from bankruptcies? rob: we have seen 40 bankruptcies already. w

members and non-opec members.saudi arabia will definitely be attending the meeting but the russian minister says there will be 15 producers there but it will be interesting to see who isn't attending. they are trying to regain market share with about 92,000 barrels per day more to produce on a daily basis to get to the 4 million barrel per day mark like it wants to. we will also play no part in this agreement. that said, they have to start somewhere when you have reduction in the u.s. declining in stockpiles growing at us lower rate that is feeding to this optimism in the market and the reasons we're holding about $40 per barrel when it comes to brent. >> the question is, can we sink above that level. commoditiesbout elliott, no shock there, is there? moves goinge actual on here. to have this joint venture in the united states refining business. they've been together for 18 years and are going to go their separate ways. shell is looking to talk 30 billion dollars worth of assets. for the saudi's of course they wil

this a lot of questions about opec and u.s. production. is a lot of questions about opec and u.s.ction. you ultimately want to see some balance and not have an immediate turn back on of something -- that is where people are unsure because they do not know where that supply comes back in. on anyi will seize opportunity to bring in credit. let's talk about credit and oil. you mentioned the shale production. osewhat point are th guys forced into bankruptcy? sarah: look at how much issuance there has been this year. that takes a bit of the pressure off credit. the equity window closes, does that also close the credit window? there are a lot of questions about that and still a lot of questions about the clearing price. that has been the controversy since the production beginning. what is the real shale production cost? where are you finding opportunities? you have to make investment decisions and allocate assets. sarah: we look for dividends. have much the mps better situation for dividends than the service companies do. when you are in a low crude environment, they will move with the

efforts between opec and non-opec producers will be done without iranian participation.have one chart i want to bring it to our viewers attention. we rally so significantly. that is a 40% rally. this is the iranian out. we will come back to this. it's not all a pretty picture in iran. hans, join the conversation. hans: the iranians sound like saint augustine. are want to be sure -- you chased, but not quite yet. they want to get to that production level. who else's reading their augustine? who wants to get to a level and do some more sinning before they get to that point? production ramped up hugely in the last few years. they want to bring more oil to the market as it rejuvenates sales. one of the significant kinds behind that -- things behind that is the pipeline feeding is down several weeks. there was a big nigerian pipeline down as well. there are things driving the rally. the thing that's got people focused is just how shale production is falling in the united states. manus: the momentum is building. these are the net short positions. the short positions are droppi

the incentive at opec is to produce as much as you can. why?eed it or because you are contributing market share to saudi arabia. produced the has maximum and driven out high-cost producers. >> central banks are really struggling with inflation targets. >> this helps. to go back to mark's question about what has happened in the comefive weeks, oil has back. talk of a recession has to kleins and currencies have supported inflation in europe. -- talk ofclined, the recession has declined and currencies have supported inflation in europe. things have changed, but they are still tactical. they are not structural enough for me to say with confidence that the ecb will no longer worry. carol: that was mohamed el-erian speaking earlier today. what youcoming up, need to know to get ready for next week. ♪ scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. .hat you miss? don't miss this a data dump. we get to see both sides of the chinese economy, the manufacturing and consumer sides. february does include the volatile lunar new year. looking at data points in china all the time. al

wti fell for a third day on news opec could curb -- iran and libya are the two opec members that havedged to attend the production toss. trading's of gold today, investors are backing away from the precious metal on signs the u.s. economy is resilient enough -- prices are closing at 1219. a consummate to gold after lenny $2 billion, standard charter is asking client get payment insurance or provide 100% collateral. the industry has been marred by default and bankruptcy with small firms overextending themselves. we want to bring in joe with our medics and -- metals reporter. why are they making these demands? >> there is a lot going on in general, among the many think they are trying to rein in. looking at the diamond industry specifically, trying to the ante for the standard. essentially take loans they need to buy rough gems from the minors. going to try to rein it in. in 18% drop in diamond prices just last year. you are seeing there is a moment when we will see some watching out. >> who are these middlemen and what do they actually do? >> they are family-owned. a numberalking about

but if there is a breakdown, opec doesn't go back and at least normalize production. and or the chinese do not go back and actually start re-fleeting. then you start to see lower lows within the commodities complex. we got comments from the fed vice chair, fisher, with governor brainerd. she said she had to rules for monetary policy. the first was that we should not take the strength of the u.s. labor market for granted. these were two roles. the second is that we should put a high premium on clear evidence that inflation is moving towards the 2% target. fromng at emerging markets a fed perspective, often people talk about how the fed is a big driver of what's happening in emerging markets. how concerned are you about the pace of the fed rate hike and what do you see as the risk? thing, the risk of a continual dislocation if the federal reserve raises rates two or three more times this year is rather high. you will start to see that on the commodities complex and currency side. we don't believe that they will raise rates as much as they are actually signaling. we are

much to comect from the opec and non-opec meeting next month.they are just going to meet, and i touch production, do not think they can, you will see oil prices dropping again, and overall in asian comes down, hiking fed should not be before that. i am not being dovish. i said two years ago they should hiked interest rates. hike now,aying if you be prepared for a market calamity. mark: when they hiked in december, the risk for balance. they dropped that in january. do they reinstate the balanced risk parts of this statement, or do they keep what it was in january? >> i think they can stick with what they want in january. i say talk is cheap. you can always hold open the possibility inflation will head toward the 2% target. hike now, be prepared for a market calamity. mark: when they hiked in december,you can keep repeatinge employment situation has improved. global say, the situation has improved. they do not say something reasonable unto they have to. you spoke about the situation, there is the case of the sharp reduction and the u.k. growth ra

most of the opec producers in january that are on this list of people who are so-called planning to freezeput are already producing at level that are unlikely to be breached going forward. exception ofe saudi arabia, none of them can produce any more oil than they are already producing. >> right. when you look at iran, iraq, and what they are planning to do this year, they are planning to grow output. foring constant output these countries is likely to do a whole lot when you have production growing in opec. matt: we see production rolling in u.s.. >> we do. if you look at the top line number, down only 43 barrels a day. when you break it down to the city that there has been continued growth in the gulf of exit code -- gulf of mexico. 48n you look at the lower onshore output, and is down around 50,000 barrels a day month over month. when you break that down further, you are looking at 30,000 barrels a day plus or minus declines in north dakota. overseas 2000 barrels a day decline in texas and new mexico. $30 oil is clearly having an impact. >> you have said before in your research that you