countries from opec as well as non-opec member states. that is a talking shop anyway.hey may as well speak while they are there. as he opec president said yesterday, the countries are always having informal discussions. opec governorador meeting with the new secretary general yesterday. opec also put that out in a statement. the venezuelans have said they have been in discussion as well: with the secretary-general about doing something. there are always these talks going on. it makes sense for them to speak when they gather. the reason behind it has to be the $10 drop we have seen in oil prices in the last few weeks. prices did come back somewhat yesterday. a lot of people are seeing this as opec trying to talk to the market, signal things, and push sentiment to get prices back up to where they are more comfortable around $50 perhaps. where they were. when opec felt more comfortable with the way things were going in the market. rishaad: they put out a statement that also included positive views about the oil prices. $50. what are they suggesting? anthony: in june after

francine: what is the difference between opec and non-opec now and from 1999?99, non-opec where observers. they were not really active. they were following what opec is doing. now, russia is more active. they have had more meetings. there is also the geopolitical situation behind the whole story and that was not existing then. geopoliticalre power in the region. seeks more likely to stabilization of the market, because they would like to see the geopolitical situation stabilize, as well as the oil market. francine: thank you, mr. jacob pebley of, former opec minister, joining us exclusively on "the pulse." still with me is simon french, chief economist at tenure gordon. we care about oil with correlation on stocks. it seems stronger than ever, and at the same time, the equities are ignored. what is going on? simon: i think it is because of the feed directly into central bank policy, because it feeds into inflation expectations. what mario draghi and governor kuroda need is a significantly higher oil price. they should be buying oil. and i have said that on the

next month, opec and non-opec members will be meeting in algeria. that meeting is an opportunity to meet and discuss the market situation including any possible action that may be required to stabilize the market. but a meeting does not mean an agreement. in april, there was a similar gathering doha. then saudi arabia refused to freeze production. after its regional rival iran said it would not lower its output. iran is trying to curve back market shares. opec members venezuela has been pushing hard to shore up prices. the president maduro called the saudi king earlier in the week as well as vladimir putin of russia. >> i'm in touch with members of opec. because we are running a series of meetings. this month and september to review and prelaunch the plans during about six months to stabilize the oil price at close to there are 40 per barrel. >> opec officials said talks on the global oil production freeze could be revived if oil prices went down. following the saudi statement, the price of oil has rallied. >> let's get a check of markets now. a mix

will the filings do more to move oil prices on a day to day basis than what opec says when opec meetsred that opec is some 30 million barrels a day. the u.s. is a .2 million barrels a day. in terms of the big swinger, opec remains the big swinger, led by saudi arabia, saudi aramco. they will continue to be the big player out there. the u.s. can help with shale. we were at 9.2 million barrels a year or so ago, so we can help influence global oil prices, but still the big game in town is opec. opec is pretty well-controlled right now by the saudi agenda. probably as it should be. they are up around 11 million barrels a day. it is a lot of oil. producer,re a smaller you cannot tell saudi arabia what to do or not to do. joe: that was john hofmeister. speaking of energy, chesapeake energy has agreed to give up its barnett shale holdings, exiting the birthplace of the shale revolution. it will cut shipping and processing costs by 750 million dollars between now and the end of 2017, so this is part of a big cost-cutting, eliminating $1.9 billion in long-term pipeline agreements. the stock is

opec president was making some noise about talks in algiers, even though couple of delegates from opec say that these will not involve a renewing of production talks. we still seeing will move higher. that's helping stocks in the energy industry. -- exxon, schlumberger, and apple in that story. new features for the next iteration of the iphone. on the downside,, balancing the gains in energy, drug stocks are falling back. wrestlers with falling after negative drug results. allegan reporting sales that missed analyst estimates. .ealth care on the downside vonnie: this julie hyman of the markets desk. mark richt and has more from the newsroom. clinton'sing hillary policy as more of the same, donald trump thought to portray himself as the presidential candidate who is focused on the future. his speech was interrupted by protesters, and he focused on job creation and tax reform. donald trump: we will limit the carried interest adduction, a well-known deduction. and other special interest loopholes that have been so good for wall street investors, and for people like me, but unfair for amer

what opec and on opec countries can come in and do a deal.hink the freshers -- i think the pressure is currently with iran, wanting to increase production with iraq. minister is also saying it wants to increase production. i think the environment is not conducive to a freeze. having said that, i think many countries have more or less maxed out on their production to date. greatt think there is a deal of upside in many of the major producers anymore, but you never know. in june of this year, oil prices of $50 a barrel on the back $3 million of daily production as ame out of canada, result of the buyouts thereat of terrorist activity in the nigerian delta, and also ongoing problems and issues in libya. there is still a $3 million overhang of production out there. there is 500 million barrels of oil in storage. saying,what you are there would be quite a bit of downside pressure on oil prices. where do you see the current balance between supply and demand, and how would that affect prices through 2017? ofi think we saw the impact those issues i j

do you think opec will continue as a lasting forest?micather question. >> oil prices collapsed in the mid-1980's. everybody thought opec was finished. then, global economic conditions changed. in particular, china came onto the scene. china's tremendous growth in the 1990's and beyond was helpful in driving oil prices higher and higher. as they went higher, people began to think that opec mattered again. now, the global economy is softer than people expected. china is showing signs of growing pains. the u.s. and the rest of the developed world want to live in the world of nominal gains that people have assumed. all of those things eat away at the demand for oil. because of the fiscal positions many oil producers find themselves in, they want to produce more oil. so, it is certainly true that oil prices are higher than they were one week ago, which is encouraging for the oil producers, but they are still a long way short from where they would have liked to have been, and a long way short from where countries had assumed they would be whe

this is the saudis saying what opec said last week.that the market picked up on was that the saudis are ready to talk and they are willing to do something and they are willing to do something potentially -- potentially in september. the main message is that they are on the case, that is what they want to tell the market. they will not let the market run wild. they can potentially intervene, they will not say what they might do or when. there are a couple other things in a statement from the minister, which could impact the market. they say that demand is good, we saw their crude production in july, increased to 10.7 million barrels. that is according to the iea and the reports to opec. they say that there is demand for the crude and the prices that we have seen, dropping into the 40's, that is not sustainable. it should pick up by the end of the week. yousef: the moves we see with production, the countries are trying to position themselves as strongly as possible for the informal talks. and it is at the high levels that they want them

the opec meeting was somewhat with a more consensus, a more united opec. we may see that again.age for possibly individual quota and collective quota in november. rishaad: right, the point being that libya is coming back slowly but surely -- surely. nigeria producing more. iraq wanting to produce 5% more as well. this could bring oil down. barnabas: well, you are asking that is the story, if the case. it is the truth production levels in the middle east has been going up. saudi arabia itself producing levels as well. higher.ey are producing libya is going up slowly but surely. there is one site of the equation, u.s. production has felt. the entire production, climate, is largely being based on what the is producing and what middle east is producing. and bringing the cuts that could be united states, production in the u.s. has fallen. thein all, we do hope that informer meeting with the official meeting by the opec, to give more views on what the production is going to happen. for now, everybody's interest, the producers especially is to increase. it could be a strategy that i em

as well as non-opec member states. they might as well speak while is the opecre president said in his statement yesterday, the countries are always having informal discussions. ecuadorian solve the opec governor was meeting with the new secretary-general yesterday. and the venezuelans have said they have been in discussions as well with the secretary-general about doing something. this cop talks going on so it does make sense for them to speak when they gather. the reason behind that has to be this roughly $10 drop we've seen it oil prices over the last couple of weeks. as opec is trying to talk to the things andsignal push sentiment to get prices back up to where they are more comfortable, around $50 perhaps. that's where they were when opec seemed a bit more comfortable with the way things were going in the market. they also included positive views on where the oil prices are headed. what are they suggesting? june after the last official opec meeting, the next one is coming up again in november. they said they saw th

opec talks slated for next month.re is a hope that they will come to some sort of freeze agreement. what are they seeing here? >> a lot of this is a media game. they keep on playing. their game.s really >> whenever they feel the prices are getting to a number they are not comfortable with, they start to come up with leaking some of this news and talking about unscheduled meetings. hit $40.39 and bounced back, that gave a technical move. it is closer to $50 now. overall, the freezing of the production will not do much for the world price. i think these things are capital market moves. whether it is to cover certain shorts. whether the dollar goes down, we find the commodities and oil goes down or up. yousef: coming up on the best of bloomberg markets, the middle east. s to buy for going -- is dubai forgoing luxury? ♪ welcome back. the battle to attract high net worth travelers is fears, but one that dubai has been winning. but now they are looking at the mimarket traveler. we spoke to our guest about status as aemirate

close to $50 as the former opec president said a production freeze will be agreed next month. in japan, exports down for a 10th straight month. the yen adding to the mood. saudi arabia and the u.a.e. expected to provide funding to egypt as it tries to finalize a loan from the i.m.s. and the latest twist in troubled malaysia. they will take legal action against fraudsters. it is 5:00 a.m. in london. welcome to "bloomberg markets: middle east." the federal reserve has the latest minutes coming out. we're no clearer as to what is going to happen in the future. we have people saying the september meeting was essentially live but there has been a kibosh on that. that is playing out when it comes to the treasury markets isn't it? >> absolutely. investors clamoring to the hope of some sort of clarity on the fed minutes. let me show you the impact that it did have. this is your 10-year yield. take a look at how the u.s. -- when the fed minutes came out. you have agreements or relative agreements that there is going to be little risk of inflation. fine. but to dwite on the labor market

you will have opec producers, non-opec producers, they met in february where they failed to conclude the best they can hope for is some kind of freeze. i think the idea of a production cut has been completely ruled out. but there is some kind of hope. there is hope for some kind of freeze. the real question is will it change the fundamental picture. if you look at spare capacity, with the exception of the saudis, who are more or less happy -- anna: there was a great gadfly piece over the weekend talking about, if there isn't going to be a freeze, who was going to block it >> we got some charts that show how since april production has increased, production in iran. that country has come back in those charts are interesting because they show you how perhaps these two countries might be happier -- but in this case he says it will be iraq and nigeria, who have been suffering the outages. >> they are not too far off their target. they have really ratcheted up production. the saudis have a couple million barrels of spare capacity and they could increase, but it is the nigerian specifically

efforts for new meetings soon the between opec and non-opec members, with russia at the head, the largest non-opec producer and exporter of oil. why? to stabilize closer to $40 per barrel or higher. a fundamental source of income. in the aftermath of of brexit, chief executive nissan is speaking out. the japanese carmaker employed over 6000 people in december. he would only be taking new investment decisions in the u.k. once the outcome of the brexit talks are known. production is exported to europe. us thely for relationship, which is between the u.k. and europe, is very important. the question is what is going to customs, german particularly the products. these are very sensitive elements that are going to determine how and how much we're going to invest. the olympics kickoff in an hours time. thousands of athletes will be competing. how much do the winners get to take home? reporter: how much is that gold medal worth? the answer depends on what country and athlete competes for. it is up to each olympic federation to determine the reward money. a gold medal winner in deserves $10,000. g

john: i think opec is an ms.he verge of collapse, nigeria is an country, other countries in trouble as part of opec but the saudis ruled the day because they have the most production capacity and they are on a geopolitical agenda to say to the russians and iranians, back off. the only weapon they have this oil price. somehow, the russians and iranians are not listening or do not want to listen to the "back off" message and the consequence is saudi and keep and producing and so they deal the economic pain and iran and russia but they start to back off. you are hearing some rough edge talk about maybe the production freeze, maybe the meeting coming up, the informal meeting, will explore the prospect of a production freeze. that would be a signal, but whether that happens or not, we will not know until it happens or it doesn't. in the meantime, i understand the saudi point of view. they feel a mortal threat in the region and they cannot count on the u.s. for support. that is gone. this administration not support inm

also, we're having reports and goldman confirms this in the note, opec and non-opec members are rampingproduction. everybody is fightsing for market share. cassic cldilemma. >> also talking about conflict areas. >> like nigeria. >> yes. may be thawing out a bit. maybe production doesn't get disru disrupted. >> gets added. >> right. >> so some selling pressure on oil after a tremendous run up. >> bull market. >> back in early august. we'll see if this pull back is for real. >> there you go. oil prices the focus. gold prices as well. if you take a look at the gold trade, one of the hottest trades in 2016. 1343. they've been up massively. 15, 16% over the past 12 months. as for the dollar, that factor into that story as well. currency always a part of that story. at least for right now, euros gaining strength right now. 11325. yen, 100 .15 last trade there. dollar weakness against the pound. 1.3179 there. kiwi up by .20%. big move higher there. >> they weren't dubbish enough to say central bank governor said don't expect a stair step of lower rates coming necessarily. and so it shot and yo

you can see the kind of impact that the opec or the possibility of a freeze at the informal opec talks in algiers has had on the market. rish: yeah. we are going to check on the state of play in the markets. take a look at what is going on in hong kong. japan and hong kong, closing out the morning, down one third of 1%. just two hours away from the open for the markets and the .mirates for delhi anddown dubai. let's check in on the first word headlines from around the world.here is shery ahn . shery ahn: china wonka saw a 10% jump in profits. net income rose to about $800 million, 5% lower than what analysts were estimating. the company's management has been under pressure since bond on became the developer's biggest shareholder. lower costs and higher margins have helped afford askew metals become the best performer. for your profit jumped ninefold. the market outlook for 2017 is positive based on demand from china thanks to its infrastructure plan. pfizer is said to be nearing a deal to buy u.s. biotech company medivation for $14 billion. sources say an agreement could be announced a

that is something that all the opec members are contending with.on, great to talk to you and get my conspiracy theory head out of their. caroline? when you talk about oil, you talk about the ramifications we have seen on the emerging markets. one of the biggest u.s. investors and the emerging is soundingchina the alarm about his growing worry over the policy direction in the country and the way it is taking. he even wrote a letter to the i'mernment, writing, " increasingly concerned that china is eyeing a short name, which is in conflict with the sustainable long-term strategy at development and for the progress." for more, let's bring in the justin,f that letter, the director of emerging-market equities. let's kick it off with china before we moved to the fed. talk about your concerns. gdp? jet to ddp -- debt to how worrying is the debt situation in china? justin: good morning and thank you for having me on. the debt circumstance needs to be understood in context. you suggested,as there has been an enormous expansion of credit in this economy and

only cointreau opec members -- only for opec members are in the top 10 oil producers. have mexico, brazil. we also have canada. i think it is very unlikely that they would go to opec. right now, we see saudi arabia, iraq surprisingly came around and said they support control. what we are hearing is all energy ministers saying they should have control as long as it does not affect production. i think it is likely they can reach an agreement to halt production. if they did, you have the u.s., the second-largest producer in the world, wrap up production if the price of oil hits above $52. yousef: staying with commodities, we are seeing a lot of pressure in the pressure he -- pressure in the precious metal space on the back of increased rate hike expectations. how would you place that? guest: i think gold is stable. it's probably going to remain stable. it has lost a little bit of ground because of the strong dollar. i think currently the price is 1300. $1300 floor is not broken, that it will probably remain at that level. if it is broken, we will probably see a rally down

we have the opec data came out in the last 24 hours. this is a chart that shows you saudi oil production as it stands. the mainline you are looking at is the bloomberg analysis that is an analysis of saudi oil production. this is the number that was reported to opec by saudi arabia that is 10.6 7 million barrels per day in the month of july. it beat the previous high in june of 2015. some of that goes back to the relentless summer heat that does cover this part of the world at this time of year. a lot of it has to do with as you mentioned the dogfight is going on in terms of defending market share against iran. saudi arabia is making a statement to the world arguably through its opec counterpart through the informal meeting. rishaad: they're just coming on stream 20 minutes ago. existing stocks under a bit of pressure. we got a hang seng positive by 2/10 of 1%. japan of course has a public holiday today. we are two hours away from the opening of the emirates markets. that is coming on 10 a.m. local time. it is up by one quarter of 1%. t

alix: opec freeze, maybe not so much.ousef gamal el-din joining us from dubai, the headline to watch. jonathan: bonds and focus on one side. gilt yields falling to record lows as sellers go on strike. the bank of england failed to buy enough longer dated gilts to reach its goal. they had this message for the bank of england governor mark carney. >> there are a lot of people bidding us the bonds. mark carney is billing me for bonds and he still cannot have them. jonathan: you're in timmer -- jurrien timmer joins us now. he is not selling. has the bank of england got a big problem? jurrien: i suspect operationally they will work things out. when yields go negative, change the basket of what they can buy so i'm sure they will figure something out but it speaks to an underlying fact, there is an insatiable reach. if you are an institutional investor in the u k and europe and have to match liabilities, why are you going to sell your bonds? even at inflated prices. people that did not sell yesterday made money and the market to

what does this do to these informal talks coming up in opec.eingight be touted as informal, but they are gaining more and more important, especially from market participants. >> it is very difficult for opec to talk about freezing outputs at this stage, given the bank report and given what we have seen coming out of opec for the last actually, couple of years now. if you look at the change in supply, supply has been coming off. growth has been coming off. the main driver for that has been predominately, the non-opec producers. within the non-opec producers, it has been the u.s. oil producers. for us, that is where the attention needs to be in terms of the impact on oil price. that is with the big change in supply has been coming from. yousef: absolutely. who is being affected most by this drop right now, especially in these gcc countries? all of them are having to revise their budgets, aren't they? >> absolutely. it has been a key theme we have seen sense th since the oil prie collapsed. there is been a cutting back on expenditure. it has affec

talkarted with opec freeze early august.came out and said, they will talk about some kind of freeze. what happens to oil? that leads us to a critical point, positioning and the market. , the yellow is long and the white a short. they have not yet been reduced. is, did we see a lot of short covering in the past week or was this a lot of long continuing to be added? does that propel oil even higher . the on repositioning in the market? the other key factor that we saw for oil was the dock their -- dollar. this is the correlation between the dollar and the wti index. they move inversely. we are far away from one at about -.2 but you have seen this correlation, anti-correlation, diverges really pick up. if the dollar is able to move up that might pull back the oil rally. if the dollar continues to be soft, oil could get pushed higher. jonathan: the bull market three weeks after a bear market, i do not get it. the conversation continues from new york city for our viewers worldwide. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is bloomberg

what level will opec countries freeze production?rently, there are about one million barrels a day higher than january. the production levels are still very high if they free -- very high. if they freeze at current levels, we still believe supply will continue to outstrip demand. if there is a pullback in , it brings an additional challenge, because you will see shale producers perhaps coming back under the market. we still think that the upside from these levels are going to be limited. been incredible, this reversal of bear market into bull market territory right now. at the beginning of the year, there was a lot of speculation that we could hit $60 a barrel. do you still see that? do you still see bullishness? guest: i think it will be difficult to hit the $60 mark. is the wealthseen in the u.s. has actually increased in the previous few weeks. you have seen u.s. production starting to stabilize. you do see prices go up much further, i think you will have additional production coming back in. the key factor with opec is that there

i saw the press release come in monday morning from opec. i go to meetings and i received the note.re was a very formal press release announcing an informal meeting in algeria next month. that is very surprising. if you receive a very -- on very formal letterhead this announcement that there will be an informal meeting on the sidelines, there is probably some meat on the bone here. i think that is why we have seen prices price this week created -- this week. it is something i caution my clients about. this was some fundamental upside for the price of oil. julie: what does price stabilization action mean in this case, do you think? does it mean a production cut? jason: there is an increased probability of a production cut. i think there is an almost insurmountable challenge to perceive -- achieving that cut. that does not mean there will not be more discussion and will be a lot of discussion, an official discussion and especially after the cooperative tone of the december opec meeting in vienna. it was very different than we have seen a number of meetings. i think that does increase

>> it is a situation where opec talks and the market reacts.verything about this meeting is routine. it is a routine meeting. even the talks are quite routine. talk to eachrs other about the oil market with the meeting in various places. the market seems to have tempered the talks, hoping for a deal. the market is rebounding from the bear market. it didn't below $40. his are coming together. a lot of speculation seems to be pushing the price up rishaad:. what does it mean for a few members who want this production freeze? a lot of resistance from tehran. is this -- is there any agreement on that? >> what you can compare it to, the last time that these talks were first flagged, the market is in a better position than it was. you compare that to the start of the year. supply was outpacing demand. at this point, it does not look like there is any need for a freeze or cap production. the ministry saying there was no need for any type of meeting. at this stage, it looks like it might be talks, speculating on the sideline. ,ntil we hear anything form

andfreeze non-opec countries, it has nothing to do with a particular move?anybody is seriously thinking that saudi arabia that three days ago announced their production was at an all-time russian production is at a post-soviet era high, if they think that these two are going to come together at the end of the season, mind you, the reason why i am so bearish is that demand for gasoline this summer has never been stronger. and we are going to finish with more gasoline than when we began. by threerops off quarters of a million barrels a , if we can't exercise but glut when demand has never been stronger. saying? are we really we might get together and we might discuss this. it was a short squeeze. it is far hard for me to believe , given they don't want to fund iran's nuclear arsenal. >> we're at a time of the year with the recount usually beginning to increase. and we see a flat line. take a look at bloomberg as of last friday. rising only by two from an all-time low of 81. why is this happening when we have this in the u.s.? >> part of it is we came into the

what about additional measures by opec? do you see them coming together and taking a stand?ek: no, i don't. i think for a variety of little dull -- political, economic, and geopolitical reasons, opec is going through a bit of a -- yousef: identity crisis? says does notec matter. it is what they are doing. their capacity to surprise the market with increased output is very much limited. on the other hand, you have the potential for supply disruption. i think the risk is always to the downside, not to the upside. yousef: thanks a lot. always a pleasure having you on the program. tarek: thank you very much. yousef: the chief executive officer at nomura asset management middle east. still to come, we continue the oil conversation as opec is seen more likely to strike a deal. some say it could be less worthwhile. we will get you the details we will get you the details there as oil prices range at hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customiz

blame opec. blame opec. rally the country. you want to sort of have this massive sort of alternative energies bill you want mass transit. rally the -- blame opec. rally the country. and carters says, i'm not going to give that speech. i'm going to listen and try to do the steps that pat talked about because i believe that if i don't talk about this larger crisis of confidence i won't be able to lead the people. so he goes on television, after ten days at camp david, where everyone is wondering what is going on, and he says to people, you know, we have a crisis of confidence and the way to end this is by using less. >> he blames it -- i'll quote -- carter responded to the gas lines by criticizing the country for self-indulgence and overconsumption. because americans have little optimism about the future, carter said, they turn instead to mindless consumerism and then the coat from the speech. too many of us worship self-indulgence and cob assumption. humanizing is no longer defined by what one does but by what one owns. we disc

the political leadership who said we cannot risk dependence on middle eastern oil, by 1970 you say opec was producing twice as much oils as the united states, so we are in a dangerous situation. >> and yet one that leaders are not actually fully aware of because the other thing that happens in this. as art the domestic decline of some the supplied declines it we become a major importer of oil so 1970 we do not import that much, by 1973 we import about one third of our oil needs. >> so george hw come i thought maybe i'm wrong but i want to clarify this because of it's not right i want them to be aware of it and also deal with it in the radio broadcast, but i thought hw say were brought home the fact to not risking dependence on foreign oil. >> so the oilmen in this country, and he sort of is this back-and-forth characters by now he's in washington as a congressman, their warning and sounding the warning but no one is really listening. >> i see that the political leaders it's the oil interest. >> yet he's there, he's sort of their loan republican voice from the south but no one is really

opec output. here is total output. this is a long chart.t means a little bit of convection to greater output. if you add two zillion barrels to where we are, you get up to the suppose it capacity about 46 million barrels. >> i would have that redline a little lower than where you do. what you probably count between the delta and the red line is capacity from places that have not been producing like nigeria. i will go with that, but the bottom line, do you see any lessening of supply out there? opec is close to capacity. iraq that has gone almost full out. for increase.uch saudi arabia is a hair under 11 million barrels per day. mark: citigroup head of research earlier today on bloomberg " surveillance." coming right up, wiped out. within $2 billion in bank bonuses as the bank struggles to make a profit. this is bloomberg ♪. vonnie: live from london and new york. i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. 10 minutes away from the end of the closing date in london. vonnie: a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news. jetblue ma

venezuela oil minister says a meeting between opec and non-opec members is likely to take place.hing fr a forum to negotiate a deal on oil prices. this follows opec's confirmation it will meet on the sidelines. from the 26th to the 28th of september. >>> glancing at commodities and you've got a little bit of a selling taking place in crude, but, again, on the back of what was a massive rally, we saw a big old rally that took place, there's speculation opec could try to curtail output. seeing that there. >>> rand stad is agreeing to buy monst monster. the dutch recruiter said they're financing the acquisition using existing credit lines and estimate the merger will be immediately fr earnings. completion of the deal is expected by end of the year. >>> now world pay is expected to pay first dividend. the payment processer benefitted across business areas as well as leaner costs. said although britain's brexit vote increased uncertainty it would not have a, quote, material affect on the company's trading performance. >>> pandora shares have been slumping after second quarter earnings

falling on concerns of opec willingness. joining us now is anthony. what is the position going into this meeting? this keeps coming out in different parts. >> we have waited to see what they would do and there was a meeting and iran did not decide until they were going to go and then did not. and he that he would go made conciliatory tones about the agreement and how opec needs to work to re-stabilize this market and that they have to get back to this market share. this is the position that they is going to continue to be produced, although not there yet. >> this shows us where we are at this highlights how evolved and they kept coming pre-sanctions and how deal look? then want to get to this and and the market is coming up and we are seeing this spread tightening and there is a lot of going on and analysts are looking at this market and they say that this is coming together. if there was a freeze, that would move things along and some are looking into next year and they say that they will be a little slower. in the bank of merrill lynch, they said th

it's not anymore been driven by the opec policy.d supply and in the end is being also decided upon by the marginal producers and the marginal producers are coming from the u.s. i think the 50 level in the medium turn would be a healthy level. right now i think the prices should come back. >> why is it counter productive to raise prices too early. >> first of all, we see a spike in the saudi arabia production. so try to convince me to cut my production in the light of few rising production beforehand and the countries like nigeria might be saying wait a minute, we didn't get to our levels so it's very difficult to reach an fwreemt and even if they reach an agreement and implement it, who will be profiting from it? so it will be way to early. the only strategy the opec should stick to is wait and see. it will take them several years to see the prices rising to the levels more or less affordable or agreeable to, but there is no other strategy unfortunately for them on a sustainable basis after they change the strategy two years ago and

francine: i want to talk away from opec.mething significant which our less oil-savvy readers do not know. u.s. exports of crude oil also rising. that could be at a record in september. u.s. exporting as much as one million barrels of crude. when will that happen? edward: the one million barrels will await a rebound in production, but we are well above that half a million barrel a day number. we have had this ironic situation where crude exports are growing. they are growing. they are going to the far east into china, into venezuela, of all places, and into europe and israel. meanwhile, because of the impact regaining market share in europe, we are seeing a lot of crude oil from iraq, russia, -- that used to becoming from iraq, russia, now coming from the u.s. continue this with citigroup as well. lots to talk about. coming up on bloomberg radio, on the election, he served the president. austen goolsbee, the former chairman of the council of economic advisors. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: these are live pictures from the ci

they cannot control opec.venezuela was dependent on oil. the economies crashing and saudi arabia, the leader of opec put budget cuts in place. >>> alison, thank you. and republicans warning that donald trump would be reckless as president and danger to national security. "new day" begins right now. frurz. >> 50 former gp national security officials signing a letter to stop the party's nomin nominee. >> she is the candidate of the past. >> ours is the campaign of the future. >> trump's policies would throw us into a recession. >> i want to jump start america and it won't even be that hard. >> don't let a friend vote trump. >>> team usa on fire. >> lilly king striking gold. setting a new olympic record. ryan murphy. >> day four in rio. the women's gymnastics team going for back-to-back gold. >> michael phelps back in the pool. going for his 20th gold medal. >> it this is "new >>> will phelps win gold in the butterfly, yes or no? >> of course. >> there sit. good morning, welcome to your "new day." it's tuesday, a

and that's why the opec meetings are so important in the next four or five months.s bearish and opec will continue to grow into this oversupplied market and what we have seen i think that supports the idea of a freeze is that opec's really sort of exhausted its commercial opportunities in the market. there's no room to grow. there's no buyers to grow right now and so a freeze is a nice way to make the optics of no more demand look actually somewhat bullish and that's our angle for that view but i agree right now, currency's number one and sentiment is probably number two as far as when's moving the price over the past call it four weeks. >> your current take is a september freeze is basically priced into the oil market but maybe a cut in november would not be? >> yeah. i think a cut in november would offer material upside. from a fundamental standpoint the move from 38 to $48 doesn't do a whole lot. it doesn't make any oil producers profitable or cheap from an equity standpoint and so a lot of that move is noise and just trading. i don't think you get a real supply/

. >> new data out of opec indicates the cartel is not likely to come back on its production and time soon. last month production rose or a $6000 a day, that's up to 33 million barrels. it's close to an all-time high and it's a sign the world's biggest oil producers are still battling for market share. oil output from saudi arabia the world's largest producer actually hit an all-time high last month. >> the global market started off at a mixed bag. the index in china down index in chinatown have a .% japan dennis cape down two tenths of 1% while the hong kong hang seng gained half a% and korea's cosby up two tenths of 1%. london down 27 points. ryanair, minors are hurting a little bit as a hot oil prices pull back. i just saw the breakdown of the european market energy the weakest technology the strongest and that's been the theme of late. check out the dow right now futures up 41 s&p up. nasdaq futures up 11. >> energies week let's check out where oil is trading. down 1 dollar yesterday and 32 cents today, gold 1351 announced. >> meantime the dollar, uk pass 129 so still dropping dow

ever cut , if of their exports overall there is an agreement between opec and non-opec that we want stables back? will the u.s. be part of that agreement? adam: the idea that the united states would be part of an opec agreement is a pretty big stretch. that is something that has been talked about for a long time, but i think it is a political thing. it is certainly not a statistical question. tom: let's talk about the political thing. adam, does the united states have an energy policy? adam: well, tom, we do. energy policy really derives from three other large policy choices. there is the economy, there is national security, and there is the environment. you put all three of those topics together, and energy policy generally tends to come at the center of all of those. so it is really age arrive thing. it is not where you start. derived thing. a it is not where you start. remember what russia did, but they destroyed supply and demand. mr. putin's russia -- they have a lot of bills to pay, don't they? adam, what do you see on russia? adam: tom, i thought you are asking one of your other gue

onlyintervention, maybe verbal intervention, but opec tries to drive the market up.e the on $50 when we approach the $55 mark, we will start seeing signs that u.s. hedge ands could hence we could see higher production. theat the moment seems equilibrium price. i do not think we will see much deviation from that level, at least until we go to that meeting of the international energy forum in algiers at the end of september. ,> i want to point to a chart 2833. it shows fluctuation in price and not even the last year, down 47%, of 95%, down 23%. these are phenomenal moves for oil. clearly, there is momentum happening. past $50 for a while until this meeting? have been the traders riding the momentum for sure. if you look at the longer-term picture of the market and you do that chart for a longer-term picture, you go all the way back to 2014. current prices remain quite low. the beginning of 2014, the market was between $120. despite the big rally over the last four weeks, we are still around $50 a barrel. probably the market, the momentum of the market is clearly dimini

talks between opec members and non-opec weighing in on the conversation as well.ve spoken to say a freeze is not likely to happen, but we have had influential voices agreeing with the former president of opec who think that because all of these numbers are pumping at record highs, they have additional incentives and additional leverage to come to some form of an agreement at this meeting. so, that possibility, low a ist is at the moment, weighing in on that sentiment picture. bloomberg intelligence is saying optimism is likely transitory. that is why prices will be transitory as well fol. guy: think you very much. we have july or retail sales coming up. that gives us a picture of the british economy after the vote. then, angela merkel, holding a working dinner with donald tusk. francine lacqua will take you into "the pulse" next on bloomberg television. and jonathan ferro and i will be on the radio. ♪ francine: it divided fed minutes shows official split on the next hike. retail sales for july. the labor market shows. and oil, on the verge of a bull market. oil mi

people are starting to think, will that be a forum to resume talks between opec and non-opec producersch broke down in april? so far, people are not warming to the idea. we suspect there are suggestions coming from latin america. we will see what develops. caroline: it's interesting that we are seeing what we heard from yousef as well, a ramp up in bearish bets, a record amount. the blue line, we see it surging higher versus the white line. butprices still falling, taking out a little bit today. is there potential for a short squeeze here? talking to people in the market, ish on where oil prices go? >> there a seasonal thing here. typically at the end of summer, people shut down refineries in september and that cuts demand for oil temporarily. we've seen oil prices fall in each of the last five septembers. of course, you've also got the prospect of higher interest rates in the u.s. mightare reasons people want to pile on bearish bets, we remain vulnerable. guy: in terms of balancing those factors out, how significant is the fed factor in that? >> it is hard to say. typically, the dolla

it seems that opec has taken some cues from the central bank.hile it is trying to monitor expectations and talk up the price of oil, we have seen success with wti at $45 a not aboutt it is borrowers an actual supply. vonnie: saudi arabia is really the chair. they impact the market more than any other. will that continue? javier: the comments from saudi arabia are the critical ones. it will make the market take it more seriously than in the past when other countries in the past have been talking about a potential freeze. what thek about saudi's are saying and that they are open is needed to take some corrective action. it is unclear what that collective action with the. would be. production is at a record high today. there's a gap between what saudi arabia is saying and what saudi arabia is actually doing. mark: we have been here before with doha in april and we were so optimistic. what have we learned from april? javier: the main lesson was iran. iran is key for any deal. you need the saudi's and iran to be on the table to freeze production. bec

opec is not finding religion.hey have a meeting september 26th in algeria of both opec and non-opec members and just forget it. it rallied over the past two weeks. it entered a bull market after reversing losses more than 20% in early august. let's get to the floor. new york stock exchange. anybody thought this thing would spike, forget it, because supply is just too great. china with refined exports spiking as well, so there is more supply? >> yeah, liz, you and i have been right. we've been saying 50 is the top. 40 is the floor. that 45 magnet keeping pulling oil back but three reasons why it is down today. number one the dollar index, all commodities priced in dollars. dollar went up, oil went down. number two, rebels in nigeria saying they will cut back a little on the fighting. there might be a peace accord. i've been hearing that since i was in high school. iraq saying they will come online with 150,000 barrels. i don't see that happening. they said that before. it's a lot easier to say i have proven reserve

when we get the opec report. then, look out for currencies.pound. this is bloomberg. ♪ this morning, the brexit vigilantes tell governor carney to get used to negative rates. gilt yields plunge. will they just say no to the governor? don straszheim on failed productivity. and mr. trump speaks without a teleprompter. the secret service is aware. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from our world headquarters in new york. francine lacqua is in london. what most interesting day. focus, united kingdom gilts. francine: as qe picks up, there was a snag yesterday when mark carney could not find long maturities that he won it to buy. -- that he wanted to buy. tom: part about covers this hour. right now to our bloomberg first word news. here is taylor. politics new bloomberg national poll shows hillary clinton maintaining her lead over donald trump. the survey has clinton leading 50-44 among likely voters. when third-party candidates are included, her league goes close to the margin of error. donald trump was in north caroli

opec is very dysfunctional.entary on the market moving here and there, but in the last six months, we have moved from a massive surplus of a million and a half barrels a day to a balanced market. now we are moving to deficit. it is not a one quarter deficit. it is a five-seven quarter deficit. as soon as we move inventory, the pressure is going to build. alix: it is not opec focused. it is u.s. focused as you mentioned. on the flipside, you have eight weeks now of u.s. production starting to pick up. what gives you the conviction that we are going to be able to cap that? francisco: i do not think we need to cap that. our forecasts are that u.s. production will have to increase sequentially from january onwards to fill the gap. next year we have a deficit on average of 800,000 barrels a day. embeds a sequential improvement introduction. the u.s. is coming down to a .4 million barrels a day. at the end of the year, it has to improve sequentially. that basically means that from january onwards, production will have

whether or not with le get a freeze from opec. let's shift the focus to your special, which is the gas market. the outlook. interesting enough you say there could be some stabilization in the oil market, but for lng the worst is yet to come. why? >> gas prices have depressed quite a lot over the last few years. there shouldn't be much surprise there. in a lot of the gas in europe and global lng trade it's linked to brent. as the oil prices dip, so does the gas prices. the global market is really a turning point at the moment. so in 2015, global production was about 250 million tons. by 220, it will grow by about 16078 million tons. that's 65% more. now those investment decisions were made at a time where the outlook for the global market was much brighter and tighter. instead it's going to hit the market at a time where global lng demand, particularly in asia, the most of the debt was expected to grow is going to grow at a lower pace. the implications for this is a lot of lng has place to go is going to end up in european sport hu

because all these countries, opec producers are producing at record levels even if their cutting won't make a big difference. >> the meeting is a red herring. in reality, nothing will come of it anyway. nobody is interested on an individual basis to cut at this time. iran, there is some understanding with where they're coming from. we want to get back to where we were. but we're willing to talk and be part of this. we're not saying no. >> on their terms. >>> then you look at the many of them coming on board significantly with -- [ inaudible ] libya is still coming back. iraq as just mentioned. nigeria to some extent. u.s. shale -- we've gone from 50 to 50 40 back to 50 again. that makes a difference. >> we're talking about the fundamentals. how about we talk about the dollar impact. if we see one or two fed hikes this year, the dollar will rise. what does it mean for oil? >> yeah. just a couple of months ago as well. we were talking about whether or not oil would be the driver of equities. where equities are going. we're flipflopping towards are we looking towards oil or other moves. w

when it comes to opec, opec has been increasing production by one 1.5 million barrels a day year overay. the saudi's are pumping at maximum capacity. i think there is more downsidely motivated than upside in places like libya. i think opec this unlikely to be able to expand production. they could stabilize oil production, but stabilize would mean we still have a glut. production,tabilize that will basically reflect where we are. what we are seeing is a balanced market. we were oversupplied in the first half of the year, the market allen's. the problem is were not seeing what we need to in the second half of the year. a rangees probably bound, but over the next 12-18 months, the direction is higher. rishaad: thank you so much. still to come, the japanese carmaker joining the race for china's electric vehicle dollar. we are live in tokyo. ♪ stories,some motoring uber is the dominant player in 108 countries. uber ishows the most use. tesla adding a powerful battery to the model s and ask. -- x. is three hundred 15 miles, 500 kilometers, trying to appeal to sports cars and dizziness. enth