and i think it has been the first warning signal first warning given by the by the president to opec to not let the prices run to i am it and if president trump pulls out of the iran nuclear deal next month as he has indicated he wants to do what's the end and that then that deal collapses what's the impact of that going to be on on oil prices. well i mean it could mean it should provide some some support although the fact of the sanctions will not be as large as the previous round of sanctions because the u.s. would be alone in doing them so what you would see you would see you should see a shift of iranian oil exports going more to to the you to the to the east. and the exports of iran towards asia have all already started to increase i think iran is probably going to discount its crude oil in order to keep the customers in asia that are less sensible to her the potential sanctions from the u.s. let's talk about another big oil producer venezuela because the u.s. is also looking at the additional measures against venezuela strongman nicolas maduro what are the implications of that.

oil is down and the question is opec and non-opec.saudi arabia and russia return the supplied to the market to make up for venezuela, iran, and any other outages? the indonesian mp is new to this have acould be that you nd theres point hike a would be a repeat and the dollar would be weaker. pressure, in terms of politics and we will stay with the emerging markets. l they stay up? we have the latest with the business headlines. >> thank you. italy has sank into political uncertainty as the populist leaders pull the plug after the president rejected the judge of the euro-skeptic germany-bashing judge. der said there was a conspiracy and made a only-failed's call for fresh elections. the euro rally. kimld trump's summit with is back on. he says, i believe north korea has brilliant potential and will be a great financial nation one day. kim agrees with me on this. it will happen! a surprise 2-hour meeting was held with kim ticket this -- to keep this summit on track. saudi arabia and russia proposed futuresurves and the fell 3.15%. >> i

now opec, of course, has cut production. are starting to see a return to normalcy in that opec is happier. iran said 60 or 65 dollar oil is something they are okay with. saudi arabia said 80. it's clear opec members want higher prices for oil than they got during 2016 and 2017. >> all right. thank you so much. i appreciate it. oil prices, everybody cares how much they are paying at the pump. gas, it matters. coming up, hurricane maria's death toll in puerto rico estimated to be 70 times more than the official count. what's behind this massive discrepancy? we'll take you live to puerto rico where the recovery is still under way. that's next. (anna) show me the movies. (male friend) thanks for the invite! (anna) front row? nobody puts baby in a corner. yippee ki yay movielovers. (vo) download the atom app and get $5 off your first ticket. . >>> please, please listen to this. the death toll from hurricane maria could be thousands more than the official puerto rican government's originality count of 64. the hurricane that ravage

opec member iran is seeking support from the organization in getting the latest u.s. sanctions lifted but that's not the only way to protect itself and to say see washington for its involvement in terrorist attacks in iran last year so i think donald trump is a key witness to kind of his mill. now the crimes of the i still terrorists have four or five people all over the world many people want justice to be served currently the islamic republic of iran is preparing a legal case but against washington it's based on allegations that the usa was involved in the terrorist attacks in tehran in twenty seventeen which i still claimed responsibility for. that lawsuit might seem a little farfetched but they've got some pretty solid testimony here's the president of the united states on national t.v. isis is honoring. president obama he is the founder of isis he's the founder of rise i think we'll give hillary clinton the you know if you're a sports team most valuable player and v.p. you get the m.v.p. award i says will hand her the most valuable player award her only competiti

opec. member iran is seeking support from the organization of petroleum exporting countries and getting the latest u.s. sanctions lifted but that's not the only way to iran is looking to protect itself it is also now suing washington for its involvement in terror attacks in iran last year citing donald trump as a key witness at mufon as more details now the crimes of the ice still terrorist have four or five people all over the world many people want justice to be served currently the islamic republic of iran is preparing a legal case but against washington it's based on allegations that the usa was involved in the terrorist attacks in tehran in twenty seventeen which i still claimed responsibility for. that lawsuit might seem a little farfetched but they've got some pretty solid testimony here's the president of the united states on national t.v. isis is honoring. president obama he is the founder of isis he's the founder of isis i think will give hillary clinton the you know if you're a s

because opec doesn't want it to be? stephen: i think opec would like to see quite higher prices. wouldn't? though we will see the seeds of problems further down the line. opec must be congratulating itself, arresting the dangerous collapse in the prices of two to three years ago. it is time to say let's relax a bit. the sanctions will work. non-us companies will have to fall into line because of the way the u.s. treasury works and the way sanctions will be made. i think they will pat themselves on the back and say thank you. unofficially, this will act in the those quotas. the higher oil price have the negative hold on the global economy that it has done in the past, compared to the last few times we saw oil prices this elevated? is it a negative because of what it does for the competes -- for the consumer in the united states and elsewhere? stephen: i don't think this level of prices. it changes a number of balances, it is so good for some countries and not good for others. deficits see greater and inflation. countries that do not have high taxes, most of the cost of petrol come

opec took another route. increased its call on demand to million barrels of oil 1.6 a day because of strong demand in the first quarter. who is going to be right? it depends on how long we hold $80 a barrel. it's been a week since president trump withdrew from the iran nuclear deal and europe is not taking it lying down. german chancellor merkel says everybody in the eu agrees it's not perfect, but they should still remain in this agreement and we should do further negotiations based on this agreement. joining me is bloomberg's chief energy correspondent. javier, great to see you. how many times do you say agreement in one statement? what options is europe considering to get around these sanctions? javier: they said they are thinking about staying on banks and the central banks to bypass the sanctions from the u.s. but the u.s. has responded to this thinking that we are hearing from diplomats, just putting them as a terrorist supporter. the governor of the central bank of iran. it's getting difficult for euro

he can force opec to do things by jawboning this. he can force the big oil companies to consider lowering their prices, giving all the profits they got from his tax bill. where is he? i yield the floor. and i note the absence of a quorum. the presiding officer: the

member not people people may not understand that venezuela also part of opec and used to be a major part but their productions been going down a lot what about venezuelans a decrease in production chris how does that play into this well it factors in quite a lot they've lost you know almost a million barrels a day in just the past year that's a lot to go down it really looks like it's collapsing at this point time of course venezuela is experiencing near complete social chaos and not just in the oil business so whether that i expect that to continue going down that venezuelan oil is going to come out of the fold and here's where the story we've got to get a little bit detailed with it venezuela's producing a kind of oil which is a heavy oil and that ships in large measure to u.s. refineries which are geared for that kind of oil heavy oil the shale oil that's coming out right now the u.s. refineries are not geared for it they're probably already fully saturated with any additional games and shale oil doesn't help the u.s. refining situation all that much. chris you want to have your

is a big opece meeting in vienna between opec in their allies or buddies june.that be? expected to be quite contentious to the fact and this reform happened you had the uae minister there as well. he made it clear to say that they will make a decision as a group. no two or three countries will decide on their own. members inside opec and outside opec seem to be in disagreement as to whether they should revise out that. so it will be contentious for sure. a lot of people say it will be difficult to reach consensus. , thank you.dern lena komileva stays with us. log on to your terminal, it is a bank terminal -- it is a bank holiday so you don't know what to do so you can study charts all day to dazzle your colleagues when you are back at work. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ sebastian: this is "bloomberg surveillance." -- responding to the demand for large can of business jets. they will build to know -- they will build two new jets. the global 7000 goes into service the second half of this year. some of china's biggest internet countries -- companies are

that meeting in vienna by opec.lking about how russia and saudi arabia have talked about rebalancing the oil market, and that will be front and center at the opec meeting in vienna on the first week of june. implications on the aussie. that is my chart today. haidi: lots of applications for these commodities in currencies. rish, who have you about? rishaad: we've bee talking thisn -- about t this. this is health care. it is a simple one. it brings up questions as to whether this industry group has gone too far. the china health care index is at the strongest level relative to the csi benchmark which is there in yellow. so, that is the base come almost. got some something like a medic ine company up 8000%. 9138%, since the beginning of 2005. we look at this company who does things with snakes and bladders. puup, what, 4800%> the health care index up 1100% since 2005. is this a crowded trade? have these stocks actually peake d? is this a place to put your money? this year -- the big industry groups in china. haidi: ye

>> a lot of the opec production adding to that.e running some infrastructure constraints quickly. we think by august, there could be some risk. those spreads could remain so long as we have that problem and the incentives are there deathly for the u.s. to export that crude to asia and markets outside of the u.s., but you are also going to have capacity constraints. it could definitely stay there in the market for a while. >> the oil market -- does it remain that way or do you see a reversal in the next two years? now, it would indicate markets are seeing definite it conditions. so far, that view is held in the markets, so in terms of when that changes, we need to see opec act and i think that would be the key trigger in which we see a given move from the .arket, but that is a risk curious, was in the u.s. supposed to be a swing producer? it seems like the saudi's are kind of in control on what is going on. what has changed do you think is oil what has happened prices are increasing about $80. downopec actually cut demand for global

opec likes to present a united front. that will be very, very difficult coming up into the next meeting >> thank you very much for coming on. >> thank you >> that will be something we watch closely, that next opec meeting. the u.s. futures ahead of the market open, all three indices looking to open positively this morning with the dow jones called up more than 20 points. that's it for today's show in london i'm willem marx. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. >>> it is 5:00 a.m., here are your top five at 5:00. warren buffett shocking everybody confirming he held talks with uber. we'll give you details plus exclusive comments coming up. >>> the trump administration reportedly working up new tariffs on steel and aluminum for europe. >>> new evacuations have been ordered in hawaii. mount kilauea continuing to erupt there. >>> the american city that some fear is overbuilding. >>> and the internet going wild to

there are a whole host of opec countries that like the agreement.ill be negotiations involved donald trump put the call in to the saudis, the emiratis saying help me out here >> peter boockvar just left the set, he said why is this happening, helema will know, probably the president making a phone call to the saudis >> that's traditionally what happens. if you look at the iran sanctions decision, that's something the saudis wanted, the emirateties wa emiratis wanted it, and donald trump i was told made repeated calls saying you have to help me out here >> so brent crude has turned around it's higher -- maybe the market is realizing, the saudis need or want slightly higher prices. >> maybe the market is assessing it won't be a million barrels hitting the market on june 25th. >> that possible even? >> no. it will be staggered but everyone is just waiting to see what's the volume going to be the saudis have to walk a fine line helping consumer anything thats out and helping the trump administration out >> we have a gigantic opec meeting in a couple wee

partners -- opec and their partners are developing on this?ething they will be mindful of each time? they did this time, but will they continue to do so? tina: no one has figured out how to respond to the president's tweets just yet. muchems to see how agreement the countries will have moving forward, but the oil price has crept up over $80 for rent, and hopefully this will put a cap on any kind of switching away from fossil fuels. davis, getting a look at the oil markets. let's get a market of the market action -- a look at the market action more broadly this week. an interesting week, largely down. not the nasdaq, picking up on the week. what is the overall there it is that can tie up all of this week's action? is thathird of political risk still matters, trade risk still matters. these were the big drivers both of and down that we saw this week in all of the major market and we are seeing them reflected in how we will end up for the week. we are clinging to some modest gains for the dow and s&p for the week. it wasn't bad, but we are gettin

become stronger name opec doesn't have a can ok game both be on track if the u.s. you know reaches of the major trouble and remember that high oil prices are going to bring more production on the u.s. side because it's only right and russia trying to cut that supply nothing was meant from the u.s. side there for the dutch it is that all time high so that is the answer yeah and with with prices this high and my guess is that we will consider continued to see ramped up production in the u.s. and other places niamh islam we sure appreciate you being with us always delightful to speak with you the chief market analysis at think markets thanks for your time. thanks prime. time now for a quick break but stick around because when we return our choose ashley banks updates us on the big pharma circumstance with president trump is just finished discussing his plans not long ago in the rose garden last danielle de bark you know book the founder of money strong helped us take a look at the economies of the eurozone and the u.s. can't not for good reasons kanye west and beyond

become stronger name opec they're going to have. the fact the u.s. you know. is the major focal and remember that high or. low production from the u.s. right because only price and russia trying to apply not paid well meant for the u.s. by their production all the time so. yeah with prices this high and my guess is that we will consider continue to see ramped up production in the u.s. and other places and i am a fly and we sure appreciate you being with us always the white ball to speak with you the chief market analysis at think markets thanks for your time. thanks prime. time now for a quick break but stick around because when we were target argues ashley banks updates us on the big pharma circumstance but president trump is just finished discussing his plans not want to go in the rose garden danielle debarked you know both the founder of money strong helps us take a look at the economies of the eurozone and the u.s. and not for good reasons kanye west and beyond say are in business and we'll get to all of that as we go to break h

>> minister novak, the current agreement with opec, what they call opec plus russia and other non-opec members will continue, but the target will be changed, because mostly what we've seen in the last several months is lifting prices, which was a bit too fast potentially, now opec is more worried about supply rather than demand so we've seen some interruptions in countries like venezuela. seen less supply to the global markets of oil, and now opec is worrying about trying to lift production quotas a bit to give more supply to the global market speaking about petrochemicals, we are using byproducts for gas production so more production basically means more stock for our business >> i think it's interesting you're agreeing to work in saudi arabia we were speaking about this off camera, one of the stories i follow intently is this russia slr sa and saudi arabia relationship, but you're telling me this is about technology >> in our case it's about technology so we're talking about a joint venture in saudi arabia with not even necessarily the saudi companies, but it will use the stock from

>> you not only need to look at opec, the saudi's came out at the st.g economic forum and said clearly that there will be a supply increase in the second half of the year, depressing brent and wti prices. opec this is a flip-flop, met and would carry on the policy. is this pressure from u.s. president? >> the opec secretary-general was blunt and said they are they sawg to the tweak from president trump in april when he said opec was at it again and he called prices artificially high. he told us today that when they saw that, they knew they had to respond. there has also been loud opposition that we have seen from democrats on the hill. a pressk, they held conference at a gas station to complain about higher gas prices into the summer driving season here -- season. vonnie: $67.80 and change and brent is down as well. a massive spread. what happens to the spread and how far can we fall before we pick up a little bit? >> the spread has widened today. there is a perceived glut in the market but not huge. the u.s. market is more gluttier. oil trade for a low

>> this is an opec member. oil production has a red collapse.f this is a bigger issue, you could see more sanctions from the united states into venezuela, it could affect global supply. they will export less, so that could be an impact in the oil price market. alix: do not only look at iran but also venezuela. thank you. now let's get into the three charts, three traits of the week. in washington, we have the latest numbers. the first report to give you 2019 inventories. let's kick it off with corn. >> when you look at what is happening with corn, the world surplus became in behind analyst expectations and that sent the market up. beeer ethanol demands and demands equals a smaller surplus and bullish for corn. soybeans? about will we see a reduction in imports from the u.s. by china? the big fear when it comes to trade. alan: we have been talking about trade were china and they have already cut back on soy exports from the u.s. but you son of evidence in this report. the u.s. global share of exports is expected to increase as it stays steady. ch

and mike is looking at opec as well as the broad oil market. sentiment is the highest it has been in several years. the permian bottlenecks will continue to provided tailwind for the market. kate and mike, thank you both for being with me. as we head to break, we want to look at some of the other big commodity moves of the week. soft commodities moving higher on the hopes that china will buy more u.s. goods. some of the winners, soybeans, cotton. coming up, a truckers' strike against rising diesel prices has put brazil's government in a corner. the latest from rio. this is "bloomberg: commodities edge." ♪ alix: i am alix steel, and this is "bloomberg: commodities edge." it is time for the data dig where we delve deep into market trends. natural gas inventory numbers out this week. we saw a build of 91 billion cubic feet, but overall inventories below the five-year average. natural gas are still under three dollars mnbtu. the big news for oil inventory was the build surprise. crude stocks built by 5.8 million barrels. exports falling, imports ro

opec reportedly saying oil glut has been cleared. this makes a possible move of easing those curves given what sony's -- saudis and what russia have said. here is asia so far. given geopolitical tensions are less a little bit, new zealand all of on the anz, but these commodity currencies, they tumbled last week due to the plunge in oil prices. 69.22 for the kiwi. the aussie holding at 75.58, but we had downside given that price of wti as well as brent. the kiwi trade as well. look at the big move in commodities releasing gold falling off, .3%. we have the 1300 level, but it is about the dramatic move in the oil market. suggesting increasing crude supply from the saudis. seeing $68 for wti. spread is thes widest we have seen in some time, and the commodity index .6%.ng lower by .2 3 -- let's get you up with first word news. haslinda amin. haslinda: good morning. italy remains without a government after a would be prime minister failed with a choice. he withdrew, saying he has done his best to form at administration. rejected ant econo

we heard opec over the weekend say they have enough supply.are not concerned about upcoming sanctions. you expect this to be disruptive or pretty well priced in to the global economy? diana: it is a difficult one to get a great read on, but probably oil prices have another live dollars to seven dollars of upside -- five dollars to seven dollars of upside left based on the sanctions imposed. it is further upside in the markets, but i think there is also, what is going on is global demand is still holding up quite well. that is something investors have been concerned about, the global , but wes quite weak think demand over the economy, particularly emerging markets, is better than what investors were expecting. that upside is good for oil prices. it is more upside in the near term. that might help with inflation. haidi: all right, thank you for joining us. senior economist here with us in sydney. tuesday, make sure you watch our conversation with turkish president satiety erdogan -- erdogan. : in the afternoon in hong kong. of of you can get aro

opec saying it has enough supply to cushion oil markets.lience that was once considered a market nightmare. 30 minutes away from the opening bell with futures of four points on the s&p 500 after the biggest weekly gain in almost two months. the euro dollar -- the euro/dollar up almost 1%. we begin with the u.s. and china. president offering a lifeline to beleaguered telecom giant as the country since its top economic advisor to washingt

but the spare capacity in opec is so small.ce all the iranian oil lost, they would be at national capacity. it would be pushing the prices up in the $1900 range. decide in june whether they want to relax production costs or continue as is. david: you mentioned 9200 u.s. dollars per barrel per oil. do you think this pushes forward timetables as to when we expect the markets to be balanced? or doesn't balance first, and then when sanctions do kick in first, andit balance then when sanctions to kick in, we fall back? market hashe already balanced. the market is tight because the market is holding back. if 2 million barrels were put back in, the market would not be tight. market will bee severe. continues production cutbacks, we will have $1900 worth. if opec relaxes, we could be -- but all the risk is the short-term on the upside. there are other factors pushing the prices up. of buyer reacs tion, what do you think europe and china are going to do? does have evolved to become big buyers of such oil -- those have evolved to become

he has chosen opec for the target. those convert into higher gasoline prices for americans at the pump. the average price of regular gasoline go up by a dollar a gallon the past two years. of what he can do and what the market is looking for, we have seen macron, merkel, we do have boris johnson in town, trying to keep this agreement. i think we are hearing people talk about the idea that the trump administration may do the same thing they did with steel and aluminum tariffs, punt on a decision and let this thing go while they continued to see the market effect. vonnie: pump prices are headed towards three dollars a gallon on average now. thanks to tina davis. mark: 10 minutes past 3:00 in europe. stocksfollowing european , less than one hour 20 minutes until the end of the session. bank holiday in the new k. volumes are down by 15% on average. , leading they advanced today. , rising as well. mark: i'm mark barton. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg markets. with growing concern over the reliability of the vex

june 22, that is when opec meets.ek, when you consider that the price inflation expectations, there was a case to be made for opec ,ot to extend production cuts and we are joined from singapore to talk about that. opec might need to rethink the target market. if it is the five-year average on inventory, and we are there already, he thinks we might see opec adjust their target to seven years, and we will see how that plays out. there is the iranian factor to consider. lots of assets to the oil conversation into the new trade week. betty: there isbetty:. a lot of factors undermining oil prices. let's focus more on the equity chiefs, ubs wealth market investment officer come a quite a long title. he is joining us and he will talk about how investors are focused on rising yields. i don't know about the risks they pose, interesting take. there is a lot of focus on the risks, but we will talk more about how that will affect equity markets. he has the ubs production on the world cup. haidi: [laughter] lead with that. we will

but are they including other opec members and those talks?ess than half an hour away from the european open. take a look at futures. u.k. stocks will be closed today. features and cash trading close in the u.k. we do see euro stocks futures rising .5%. futures and frankfurt up .33% area interestingly, we see ibex futures of, as well. it doesn't look like the spanish market is put off by this problem surrounding the payday and railway in spain. take a look at the italy-germany's red, one with a watching closely as it blew out in the run-up in the clash between matter relative and can't take it italy. the concern was you get this populist government in place with the finance minister who wants to leave the euro. now that concern might be dying down as the government collapses. we see the spread tightening a little bit from such a wide level. take a look at the gmm there. there aren't going to be any u.s. trading today because of memorial day, no u.k. trading day because of memorial day. you cans equity index, see there is an emerging market reb

of course that opec's influence on global oil prices would demonstrably diminish by even use that old eagle song lyric with all this whining crying and pitching a fit get over it get over it get over opec but my question to you is has opec regained some of its price power prowess due to their self-imposed cuts in the last year and a half and now due to sanctions do the trump sanctions actually help opec become stronger name ok it doesn't have a can ok game both be on track if the u.s. you know reaches a for each case the major trouble and remember that higher oil prices are going to bring production on the u.s. side because it's only right and russia trying to cut that supply nothing was meant from the u.s. side there for the dutch it is that all time high so that is the answer yeah and with with prices this high and my guess is that we will consider continue to see ramped up production in the u.s. and other places niamh islam we sure appreciate you being with us always delightful to speak with you the chief market analysis at think markets thanks for your time. thanks for. time now f

the question is when will opec bring it in.n't see opec making any decision in this quarter. end toy we won't see an those cuts, but the likelihood of the cuts being in 2019 are much lower. that is probably going to be more bullish. richard, tell me something. what happened to shale? shale was meant to be a swing producer that would keep the lid on the oil price. what is going on? >> well, i think it is. shale is growing and growing very fast. if you look between 2017 and 2019, shale oil is forecast to grow by more than 2 million barrels per day. so shale is growing. i think the market is just very sensitive to the geopolitical moves right now, and given the are of year we're in, we about to go into peak demand season. i think just a combination of factors are giving us this very bullish market. i'd add that we do have a lot of speculative money in the market not necessarily coming from the oil industry. moneyng that speculative stays in the market now that these big geopolitical decisions have been made, like the u.s. pulling

it is set for a fairly tense meeting, opec and saudi raising output.s moving in a few minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: will continues to slide in asia after the plunging friday, the most in 11 months. opec and its allies now say the market rebalanced in april as output managed to eliminate global surplus. let's get the latest on that with our bloomberg asia energy reporter. what does this mean for opec as they meet? will it be a contentious meeting? >> it will be tough. the decisions that saudi arabia and russia have come to that they will change policy and add more barrels to the market is a shift from the cut. but the decision they've come to without consulting most of the elements within the group. the uae minister said it will be a group decision. it looks like it will be a tense few weeks. a lot of diplomatic work on the saints. russia and -- behind the scenes. russia and saudi arabia have formed an alliance. if they wanted to increase output, they could do it. this group has worked as an alliance. they have managed to cut production together

on strums saber rattling about iran is also contributing to the worries iran is the third largest opec producer and experts say that could send to the price of crude over the eighty dollars mark now earlier i spoke to claudia ken fed from the german institute for economic research and with iran standing to lose access to the global oil market i asked her who stands to profit well of course those countries who export oil especially saudi arabia for example or the other opec countries especially because i had to cut in the previous month the oil exploration because our press was to go and now if the prices rising obviously being calm from oil exports will increase and those countries do benefit and how high do you think the oil price will go. that's very difficult to say because it's also a space speculation let's say that way because we don't know now we have a very high or a demand we have this geopolitical risk we still don't know what's ongoing in iran and the oil exploration there and here we see how high the fear is that the oil market will be under pressure in the future and this

francine: there is an opec meeting in june.are mad it is basically always saudi arabia and russia. will it be tempestuous? stuart: i would have thought so. one thing to remember is opec to this amazing ability remain cordial with each other even at the worst of times. tohink all of them have come the recognition that there is something more important than national politics. so we will probably hear somewhat negative comments from the parties, but fundamentally, they are all in this together, and they realize that. scarlet: what is the read from the market as to whether russia and saudi arabia -- saudi arabia withmove through increasing output? stuart: it was a verbal intervention, and it was uprising they turned it around that asked. if you we sick of, the saudi spoke about no need to increase production any time soon. and there was a lot of rhetoric coming from the u.s. in terms of trump's to be done oil and opec. will they actually do something, i think it is likely they will do something, even if it is only to take the marke

need to know about opec and their production. 32 million in just 32 billion barrels a day. -- under 32 billion barrels a day. you see saudi arabia followed by iraq and iran. we talk about iranian sanctions potentially coming into play. that is potentially bullish factor that could push crude higher. this chart of here, you can see the run up in crude production. as production cuts took place, you see that that led to crude inventories being lowered. as long as opec use these production cuts in place, you have also seen the big decline in venezuela production down here, down about 35% over 18 months or so. unless opec starts ramping up production again, that and the iranian sanctions, it creates a bullish dynamic where think crude could move 10% higher. abigail: let's bring this into the futures market and use another great function, the market depth monitor, the front month contract. >> this is simply how crude trades. this is the nymex quote. every contract is worth about $70,000. here are the bids. there are the offers or the a

opec member countries.tain producers that are naturally seeing production decline. we have seen sanctions in iran and venezuela, production being affected sharply. that could create some contention in terms of coming to an agreement among all the member states. russia and saudi arabia have certainly been giving indications that they could start to increase output. they are facing a lot of pressure as a result of higher of theat the pump, some highest prices we have seen since 2014. at the same time, it is important to remember that we have seen opec clear its surplus even as u.s. production has reached record levels. there are strong indications that this is a good time to start seeing output rise. mark: when like it happen and by how much good production be raised? -- could production be raised? amy: when i understand and what we are -- what i understand and what we are hearing in the markets is we could start to see production increases as quickly as the second half of this year. the opec member countries

impact >> we are also dealing with the fact that venezuela continues to bleed crude oil production opec has done something it's been unable to do for years or decades, which is actually comply with its own production cut mandates so there's a lot of different story lines playing out in the oil world right now, are there not? >> yeah, exactly so you've seen brent crude jump above $75 a barrel wti, the u.s. marker go above 70 a lot of factors come into play here you have robust oil demand at the same time cuts in supply from opec and russia as you say, venezuela is among countries where there's been disruptions to supply as well. the iranian factor just adds into the mix >> thank you so much we appreciate it >> thank you. >>> let's get back to your top money story. that is comcast reportedly planning a $60 billion all-cash offer for 21s century fox's assets sources telling cnbc that comcast would acquire a 100% stake in satellite broadcaster sky as part of any deal. joining us now on the cnbc news line is m&a correspondent with the financial times, aras arash massoudi comcast coming out a

opec sees a lot of threats not only from u.s.energy sources like wind and solar that could damage its market. wary of letting prices go to high. they will want to keep prices high enough, but also protect their market share and their market. anthony, we have seen opec and the allies say they already cleared the oil surplus. is that something that is driving them as well, that is being read on the terminal today? anthony: that is a big factor. this is a five-year moving for stockpiles they have been targeting. having too much oil in storage with keeping the price down, so they wanted to basically under produce and get people to buy oil out of storage to take the extra weight off the top of the market. they have done that. they can say mission accomplished now. that gives them some additional flexibility to decide what to do to decide when they want to ease out of this production cuts. as you mentioned, venezuela, angola -- those are countries having production difficulties. we have potential risks coming iran.inst the saudis will

and non-opec as we've had possibly forever. >> i don't know. the saudis a couple months ago when you had brent at $65, you they telegraphed the fact that when brent got to $80, they were going to start bringing it back online from my perspective, not that it was super telegraphed, but it was talked about it was very clear by them. i do look at this as a supply issue. this is absolutely not a demand issue. i think it's short-lived on the equity side, we had absolutely zero interest in this, and i say it's crazy selling, buying, anything. it was the worst -- think about this it was the worst commission pad on our entire desk today when news came out like this. >> i hear goldman killed it. >> here's the thing. you may want to go back to look at 2014 and what happened there. that was the year that qe ended. it was also the last time that the ten-year treasury yield traded 3%, briefly, and we were just briefly above it for about a week and a half. but one thing that started to happen in 2014, the dollar started to rally it had a 15% rally from its l

the breath over eighty and with w t i over seventy let me ask you speaking of the saudis we've got opec meeting coming up i think it's june twenty second in vienna but you've got the u.s. pulling out of iran those sanctions maybe iranian production of oil will slow then you've got the venezuela is probably most which look like their production may actually fall below a million barrels a day what does this all mean for supply and demand. this means that china india especially india are going to be very upset about the current levels of crude opec could not be happier they are historically behind the curve when it comes to making up for these gaps that you speak of whether it be angola brazil venezuela iran with the sanctions this gap is notoriously historically been very slow to close but if i'm the saudis or if i'm even shell producers i'm pretty happy about this because having crude above seventy dollars only serves me it's going to be tougher in the narrative will probably change if india or china really start to get upset about it but frankly where are they going to go opec's already

the breath over eighty and with w t i over seventy let me ask you speaking of the saudis we've got opec meeting coming up i think it's june twenty second in vienna but you've got the u.s. pulling out of iran those sanctions maybe iranian production of oil will slow then you've got the venezuela's problem most which looks like their production may actually fall below a million barrels a day what does this all mean for supply and demand. this means that china and india especially india are going to be very upset about the current levels of crude opec could not be happier they are historically behind the curve when it comes to making up for these gaps that you speak of whether the end goal of brazil venezuela iran with the sanctions this gap is notoriously historically been very slow to close but if i'm the saudis or if i'm even shell producers i'm pretty happy about this because having crude above seventy dollars only serves me it's going to be tougher in the narrative will probably change if india or china really start to get upset about it but frankly where are they going to go opec's a

a lot will presumably depend on the attitude of opec recent years.e of 0pec and russia as to whether they want to open the taps a bit more, and whether they are willing to do that. there is this expectation that saudi arabia and russia would try to make up arabia and russia would try to make upfor arabia and russia would try to make up for that decline in exports from iran, which is why market expectations not been as negative as in previous episodes. you look rahman, the situation it could find itself in, who are the winners at the moment from this oil price rise? well, it is anyone who is an oil exporter, you have saudi arabia, russia, those countries tend to do better. actually, the position of the us has become better in recent yea rs. the us has become better in recent years. now, it has become an oil exporting nation, so there profits tend to see a rise as oil prices rise. the merchant markets are really going to be hit hard here. absolutely, and the thing to remember about the merchant markets is that they tend to move as one asset class. as s

kick it off with opec ago, an incredible function on days like today.ou can see in this pie chart that iran is the third-largest producer from opec. in april, they pumped 3.70 5 million barrels a day. the big question is who makes up the gap as they come off the market? , you can see saudi arabia, iraq, kuwait lead the pack. the crown prince told bloomberg in 2016 he can get the saudi's to that level. 11.5 million barrels a day immediately. is dates to watch for now june 20 first, june 22 when opec and its partners meet in vienna. iran will be on the agenda. that is on the opec side. crude,orters of iranian the biggest customers, asia, europe, and turkey. china, turkey and italy leading the pack. they.s. made it clear would go after other nations doing business with iran and specifically target reinsurance. they have done this in the past. halting american -- a rainy and oil tankers. you have to think about china and india, they were a bit to fight and their desire -- defiant and given the trade friction with the trump administration, make him stronger.

opec talked about the supply gap but that is in opec.and iran that are seeing production not rolling. and if you look at the rest of down forador, it is lack of investment. alix: so the conversation for many analysts say you could be upside risk for $100. is the conversation better spent talking about $40? we see the value of tetra state. , it could happen again. it could happen in nigeria. it will last long because opec capacity,t half the it will come back and the u.s., brazilian and canadian production keeps going. rapid economica slowdown so the demand pushed on the oil price won't be there. alix: is the floor $40? or is it $50 or $60? thewe have been saying that and the soft $40 sealing is $75. .e have seen it go above $75 political risk is there. it comes and goes. and now we see low risk on the production.ith david w.: you mentioned to. where is demand right now? demand is being curtailed because of the high price of oil, is that true? did reduce their spread between the demand and the top forecast with the most optimistic demand

that story is coming in with opec and russia.to be a gradual supply boost in the second half. brent is trading now at 77.73. we are seeing one of the factors that is impacting these emerging markets now. turkey is an oil story. francine: after the proposal, if we cast our eyes back to how long they have been reducing output, this is been for a long time. at the time, they specified in the original agreement that this could go on as much as a couple of years. they preserve the political and economic life between moscow and riyadh. on what is in trending across the bloomberg universe. apple wins $539 million from samsung in the final throes of the court struggle on patents. bankers may have moved $13 billion to a baltic laundromat. yen dips asce, the president trump cancels a summit. it's speakerns why system just to share a very personal conversation. and pyongyang says it remains open to a summit with the u.s. we will get reaction on that story shortly. let's get straight to number first word news. taylor: sticking with geopoliti

we're back where we were >> never-ending opec news cycle.s have fun on a friday it's friday. it will rain all weekend stick around time for the top trending stories. we have the whole gang here. kate rogers is joining us now with more on what's trending as well as music trivia a fresh sign we've hopefully reached peak talk in this ridiculous yanny or laurel audio debate check out this video from the white house. >> yanny so clearly laurel. >> yanny >> it's laurel >> definitely laurel >> it's laurel but i could deflect and divert to yanny if you need me to >> definitely yanny. >> yanny is the winner >> sarah, it's been reported you hear laurel. how do you respond >> clearly you're getting your information from cnn, that's fake newsment anewsment all i hear is yanny. >> that's laurel >> laurel, america >> laurel. wlofrnlgts >> who is yanny? >> i hear covfefe. >> larry kudlow -- >> i know, a couple familiar faces. i think we reached total yanny/laurel fascination i heard yanny the whole time >> no, you didn't. you're joking. you're messing with

you think this will lead to the unraveling of the opec agreement?n't think so because saudi is still involved in the data ensure higher prices and increased their level of spending so their fiscal break even has increased this year relative to last year. it is about $85 and they are spending more to get their mission in place for their ipo and increased the level of social services spending. they need a higher price and they are invested in that, so i think they want to keep it continued, and they are worried about market share. they learned a lesson the last craters, youket incentivize more production from other players. betty: like the u.s.? >> exactly coming down. balancing the market and that of the necessarily causes a deal to unravel but you have to look at the fact there are conflicting incentives right now within opec. saudi is focused on higher price and i think iran and russia are focused more on lower price and keeping market share in customer base intact. a gtv chart that shows you one popular energy etf and how much volume are presented

the threat over eighty and with w t i over seventy let me ask you speaking of the saudis we've got opec meeting coming up i think it's june twenty second in vienna but you've got the u.s. pulling out of iran those sanctions maybe iranian production of oil will slow then you've got the venezuelan is probably most which looks like their production may actually fall below a million barrels a day what does this all mean for supply and demand. this means that china india especially india are going to be very upset about the current levels of crude opec could not be happier they are historically behind the curve when it comes to making up for these gaps that you speak of whether it be angola brazil venezuela iran with the sanctions this gap is notoriously historically been very slow to close but if i'm the saudis or if i'm even shell producers i'm pretty happy about this because having crude above seventy dollars only serves me it's going to be tougher in the narrative will probably change if india or china really start to get upset about it but frankly where are they going to go opec's alrea