our fellow opec member iran to the u.s. that's not going to happen the saudis are an ally of the u.s. so there's a lot of moving parts. you were talking about tariffs one of the other things people are looking at is the u.s. tariffs against china. if you look at that and go down below some tweets and noise around it, it seems to me that china is going to switch away from buying the u.s. barrels and they'll move over to west african and other sweet barrels. that leads to a change in trade flows, that affects the market you could boost the price of brent. that's a benchmark price for a lot of crude oil that's another thing pushing the price higher >> let's talk about that spread then between wti and brent right now it's at $7 or so a couple days ago it was $10 what is driving that distinction and how important is it? >> the distinction is between the types of crude grades. between wti and brent, one is seen as more of almost a land locked crude, though it's opening up these days. the other one is a backbone of so much of the

> opec has made the difference? >> uh-huh. so, you know, some of these are very small. for example, an iron bridge. a gal vennizer or exporter. some were smaller or well established companies. but what matters more than anything else, i think, is the average american needs to recognize that u.s. foreign assistance has changed and modernized dramatically over the decades. that this component of it returns money to the treasury but also helps create export opportunities for american businesses. i spent eight years in manufacturing. we both spent times in manufacturing, ray and i. we're a small percentage of the world's gdp for the growing market. we have to continue to grow export market opportunities. having opec or a modernized development financial institution is a key piece in continuing to win in export market world where we face aggressive competitors who have larger, better resource cfi. if we can get opec and ps engaged, i think we can win the global market. >> we look at the logistics part of the operation. i

we're in the basement of opec. these are all energy, oil, opec reporters.e're stuck in a stairwell can we get stuck in a stairwell trending on twitter? we're waiting to go upstairs to talk to the ministers. the opec meeting, there is news because of this. the opec meeting was supposed to have begun an hour ago it's been delayed. there are numerous reports that saudi arabia and iran are still trying to hammer out a deal. saudi arabia would like to raise production, iran is not necessarily against it but there's certain things they would like there's a lot of things out there maybe they want. everyone is waiting here so we're stuck in this stairwell waiting for an hour-delayed opec meeting to begin they'll let one group up, then another group. some of these folks here have been waiting for a couple hours. if anyone is watching from opec. we're still down here. again, we are waiting on this time to go upstairs, talk to some of the ministers. the way this works, they will put out their decision later on today, and hopefully we'll get a chance to speak with them

we go to the first surge in opec and the second surge in opec.rew, what is so important is 1996 which is a collective memory of the opec cartel before persian gulf 1 and the china oil boom down to the collapse as well. what permeates the opec discussion to me is 1986 and that first collapse of post-opec oil. andrew: a lot has been happening since then in terms of the efficiency of economies and their consumption of oil. since then the intensity of the production, the oil intensity of production has dropped substantially since then and we're on a slow path turnl as other alternative energy sources are gradually coming online. it's early to say it's the end of petrol fuel powered cars but look at all the check trick cars driving around our cities already. >> the deal to increase production. >> i'm sorry. >> we are looking at something new and based on this new is to live the overcompliance from the market. >> how did your discussion with saudi arabia just go? >> good. >> a good discussion. what did iran get, sir? >> have a good discussion and will

opec. david: the mourning grou brave. -- the morning brief. pmi from the united states and as we just heard, opec ministers are meeting as we speak in vienna. we are waiting to see if they have a deal. over the weekend, watching turkey, presidential and parliamentary elections, coming up on sunday. alix: time for the first take. we are joined by stephanie flanders, who apparently doesn't sleep. and marty schenker. i want to look at opec. if you look at brent, higher, may or may not get a deal, how much, when? what role did president trump play in these meetings, that a u.s. president has not played before? marty: he has been tweeting that oil prices are too high, specifically targeting opec. i doubt they are thinking about what donald trump will say if they reach an agreement on increased output, but he is providing a nice distraction for those who are not particularly interested in opec. alix: hey now. the saudi minister yesterday was talking about consumers. do right by the consumers. you

>> i am optimistic that our conference on friday, tomorrow, with opec, and non-opec on saturday will come up with a consensus decision >> what has been the big problem, the big sticking point so far, sir? >> it has been the usual process of extensive consultations by all parties within opec and between us in opec with non-opec partners which is typical in the run up to the conferences. >> when can we expect the announcement of a decision >> as soon as we conclude the conference on friday, the opec conference, the president of the conference will address the press to announce the decision and then on saturday we'll have a joint press conference with the non-opec by alexander novak of the russian federation, together with the uae. they will jointly address the world press. >> so novak will be the -- the russian oil minister will be at the meeting tomorrow and be a part of the decision >> we expect him this afternoon in vienna, he assured me he will be at the meeting. >> does opec believe that $65 u.s. traded oil is a fair price for oil? >> the issue of price has never been part of the

opec meets today. the number for the market, 600,000 barrels of oil. .hat is what is on the table can they get a deal across the line? anna: let's talk about where that leads? we have the risk radar that includes oil. this strong opposition from iran, we hear you about that one, manus. the broader picture, the msci asia pacific is down by .2%. it has been a busy week in terms of news flow. just like mirror image of yesterday. we've got china and korea going higher over in asia despite ongoing concerns with regard to trade. interesting to track where we got on the u.s. junior just u.s. 10 year. -- u.s. 10 year. central banking stepping away from extraordinary monetary policy. despite all of that and the rhetoric around trade, we haven't moved very far in the u.s. 10 year. with oil prices moving higher as we anticipate for the news, a good time to talk about what is calling him a desk what is coming up on the oil story. -- what is coming up on the oil story. we will be talking to christof ruehl. manus: h

sam: opec will dominate the day again.ave got to look at the oil and gas index down the last three days. oil is up, so it will likely rise. majors, but the mid-caps. a lot of oil producers in london getting a little boost today. guy: airbus has said this before. why is this different? nejra: it is talking about the prospect of a no deal scenario for brexit. airbus saying it may pull its u.k. investments in the "catastrophic event the country leaves the eu next year without striking a brexit deal." about 14,000 people in britain, manufactures wings in the u.k. and said this late thursday that if the prime minister fails to broker a deal, it would lead to severe disruption of u.k. production. airbus would be forced to "reconsider its investments in the u.k." and its long-term footprint in the country if it tumbled out of the bloc without a deal. in terms of a transition deal, that is still a position of concern for airbus. absolutely, and then the supply chain story, as well. thank you very much. we are working our way towar

would you agree opec is changing >> opec and opec plus or what we call the vienna alliance it is a different arrangement. the involvement of russia in particular as well as other non-opec is significant. so russia is very much part of the ongoing dialogue >> can they continue to control the price? >> i think that they're focused on inventory levels and stability of the market. so i don't think they are seeking a price. but i think rather it's a level they're trying to do i think at least discussions -- people are concerned about sufficient investment for the next three, four years that's the question that hangs over this whole discussion >> two more quick questions. are they listening to stomers? which customers? india and china or mr. trump and his tweets >> there's no question they're listening to their customers and they're listening to the united states. listening to india listening to china even russia, where there's consumer pressure. this is feeding into it. i think the voice of the consumer is being heard here >> if all the risks out there, of all the risks you have identified venezu

opec is meeting in vienna. oil was moving on friday. we were not sure if there would be a deal or not. iran, iraq ando venezuela, they will not say if they don't want anymore production to come online. we will see what happens. haidi: they could be quite a messy opec meeting as we get into that, the end of this week. some think decisions, bank of england, the fed speak in general. will be watching out for commentary as we get mario drag hi, governor kuroda and others. take a look at how we are setting up into the asian open. you have kiwi stocks a little bit lower, the kiwi dollar at 69.38. the u.s. dollar is mixed against the g10 peers. futures flat here. still under the $.75 level as we get a roll across commodities. gold seeing a bit up, .25%, and crude trading lower getting i that contentious opec meeting in vienna. looking at the agricultural index, everything from soybeans to copper to call getting -- coal getting impacted by these new trade tariffs first us from washington that retaliatory lists from beijing. now first word news

just two days away from opec's big meeting. brian sullivan is out in vienna, us austria for us to bring us the details. it seems like opec's relevance has diminished over the past few years, how importantly will we view this production cut or production issue coming out of vienna today >> as always you nailed it this meeting is important because opec needs it prove to the world that it's still a viable organization. about a third of the world oil is being pumpedthrough opec. they need to come together and get an output deal done. this is called the opec seminar. the meeting where they will make the decision is on friday. ahead of that, every major oil minister is in vienna, austria now. there's a lot of themes, but there's one major outcome. that outcome is how much, if at all, are the opec nations going to increase production right now they've been operating under a 1.8 million barrel per day cut. they did that a year and a half ago to raise prices. they will try to raise output here the question is will they get a deal done?

that is ahead of friday's full opec meeting.ottom line here, regardless of what happens, investors are all expecting that prices will head south. market had priced in a consensus of production output increase of around 800,000 to a million euros a day. underlyingat the agreement, it was successful. 1.8 called for removal of million barrels from the market. at the same time, it was also successful in not only bringing down, bringing prices up by $.50 but it took down global inventories around the world area we think about the range of options that are possible from the outcome of the meeting, any because whenullish demand peaks for the summit we are going to need all of those barrels. >> the crux of this is a ron. what is the reason for them not wanting to because if they raise production but in this case no. >> this is the interesting thing. oil pricest where have stabilized, opec is less effective at balancing the price isea when the cratering to the downside, everyone wants to get prices back up. and venezuela do not have the

christine said if you mention opec you will win. opec, opec, opec.nothing to do with opec but we will see if that theory works. forget the boe, forget the smb, not every day do we talk about the norwegian central bank. high for the norwegian side of that equation. eight month low for the euro side of that equation. norwegian central bank said its rates may rise as early as set timbre from a record low. the markets were not quite priced for that. they thought they might have a hike in the summer. they raise rates in 2011 and they are in a fitting from a rise in the economy. they are the second-best performing currency against the dollar this year, the norwegian krone. the second one is the norwegian krone against the euro. the nordea bank announcement shs it's not tied to the ecb policy in the way the smb is. going into september, they -- to euro-krona to job drop 9.25, taking into account that the nordisk bank is in hiking mode. opec, opec, opec. reason it's not for that but you are the winner. i think christine's chart was fantastic. >> i think we w

trump tweeting away about what opec is and what opec isn't.ou can see how there are so many nuances and subtleties to this whole story we spoke to one of the holdouts yesterday, bijan zangeneh, he represents iran. iran have many concerns. one is the fact they're maxed out in production unless they get more investment. two, that investment won't come if u.s. sanctions go forth and stop them expanding their oil industry huge issues for iran versus saudi, locally and geopolitically and against u.s. as well. i spoke to mr. zangeneh amidst a hell of a scramble yesterday and first of all he answered the question, do you think there will be a deal and then he starts railing against mr. trump. let's listen in. >> i don't think because every decision in opec meets the -- i don't believe in this meeting we can reach that the important things i would like to declare that opec is an independent organization and it is not american organization president trump has created a difficulty for the market, oil market by imposing sanctions against the two importan

in anants to take part opec monetary committee.dn't reach a consensus on the optimal output. this goes to the heart of what they were talking about last night, we are not going to be whipped by the united states of america. they don't support an increase in production. not least because they are not in the best position to benefit from that. these are unidentified people, this is a task munication. these are unidentified people on the technical committee. let's talk about one man what always had a -- has a big opinion on world affairs. he says he has a lot to worry about, the goldman sachs chairman and chief executives discussed what this means for investors. it was at the economic club of new york. >> when i got out of school, short-term government interest rates were in the teens. also abouttion was 10% and unemployment was above 10%. these things can happen. everyone is debating. lips are quivering, is the fed going to raise three or four times this year? i remember sitting in 1994 and they raised 50 basis points between meeting

mark: will opec listen? >> opec is in the middle of negotiating with itself. the saudi's have decided along with russia that they need to put more oil into the market. it's a subject of debate among opec members, how much oil they should put into the markets. there will be diplomacy within opec and outside in the run up toheir meeting. is one million the figure the community was saying opec would probably raise output by? most people are talking between 300000 and just over one million. yes, it is the upper end of the range. it is seen as a big increase by --er opec members who like what's important to remember, there aren't many members who can make that production. arabia and thedi uae and kuwait. madekely that washington its appeal directly to those companies. given, the reason being prices are too high at the pumps. is one directly correlated to the other? prices are going down already. time.there is some lag there's been a real run-up in prices this year. getting closer to the symbolic gallon in many parts of the country. prices have fallen because of tru

i think it is pretty clear, opec is going to increase production. we expect a one million today barrel increase from here to the end of 2019. it is a gradual increase. on a quarterly basis, it is basically priced to bring the market into a better balance. right now, we are growing inventories probably at too fast a rate. alix: the saudis said 1.5, and this is what putin said, he said we are not interested in an endless rise in the price of energy and oil, we are satisfied with $60 per barrel, above that can lead to problems for consumers which is not good for producrs. does 1.5 or 1.2 get him to$60? >> probably not. our baseline next year is $75 per barrel on brent. even if you bring 1.2 million barrels to the market, you will not have a surplus. you would have to ramp up from four players, russia, saudi, emirates and kuwait, to roughly 2 million barrels a day. that gets you into the low to mid 60's. if you increase 1.2, you'll probably stay around $75. while this is going on, we are losing venezuelan output and a fair amount of iranian output as u.

same with most opec members.l prices and partly about opec policy, is not geopolitics and who has influence -- it is about geopolitics and who has influence in the middle east. russia had not made inroads into the middle east before but now they have. how much is president trump looming in the opec meetings? we don't want to see cave-ins, president trump when he complains about oil -- exactly. obvious are some of them do point out in private that the makings of the heil oil prices are partly the response of -- higher oil prices are partly the responsibility of the white house. that is one element. the second element is this. increase production, bring prices down, maybe just enough to keep them there with a balanced book. also just enough to show willingness towards the u.s.. >> stewart wallace, the hardest working executive editor at bloomberg. >> he doesn't get to go to vienna. uncool. >> still with us is aswhin alankar of janus capital management. you just heard what our colleague said about opec, how does tha

i think it is pretty clear, opec is going to increase production.expect a one million today barrel increase from here to the end of 2019. it is a gradual increase. on a quarterly basis, it is basically priced to bring the market into a better balance. right now, we are growing inventories probably at too fast a rate. alix: the saudis said 1.5, and this is what putin said, he said we are not interested in an endless rise in the price of energy and oil, we are satisfied with $60 per barrel, above that can lead to problems for consumers which is not good for producers. does 1.5 or 1.2 get him to $60? >> probably not. our baseline next year is $75 per barrel on brent. even if you bring 1.2 million barrels to the market, you will not have a surplus. you would have to ramp up from four players, russia, saudi, emirates and kuwait, to roughly 2 million barrels a day. that gets you into the low to mid 60's. if you increase 1.2, you'll probably stay around $75. while this is going on, we are losing venezuelan output and a fair amount of iranian output as u.s.

and russia rushing opec to increase oil production again after eighteen months of tight control but iran and other members from maine fiercely opposed to friday's ministerial meeting is like basically one of the toughest in recent memory paul brennan reports from vienna will they or won't they that's the question vexing energy analysts ahead of friday's opec ministers meeting with the ministers agree a compromise or is opec heading for a splits it could be a shortfall by the end of the year something like one point six to one point eight million barrels a day it will take time for anything to filter through say whatever they decide to do in the next few days it will be installed but it will have an impact on the market but they also want to ensure against is that the stock over how that we've seen in recent years doesn't come back again the reason why there are no talks or increase in production is to dump on that volatility i give the market the consumers everybody enough certainty and sense of security of supply to keep markets in x. healthy situation in june twenty fourth teen op

opec plus meets. we are hearing different meats on what the saudi's one and with the russ its a highly political meeting. this was a huge deal ccessful deal. they want to strike a tone of they have to do something in terms of increasing production. sleep -said iran is umpi pn 30%o make , they output of their oil will have to do something. they want to keep this idea that they wereeter andf deal. guy: talking about the meeting taking place in moscow. yoplay it with your feet. guest: i have brazil winning. y: so do i you can put in all the groups, who is going to win, what the ous games look like, then you get on to what is happening with the knockout phases of that. come abrazil brazil-spain final a braa it of aoitoss wheyou get to that point. spain has got issues definitely with that. let's talk to juliette saly and find out what is going on around the world. china's central bank has heloff fodiately raising borrowing costs following the fed hike. --nomic data came in world's worse than expected. losi

rest of these non-opec countries helping opec.ussia will be able to contribute one million barrels a day increase so the market corrected. when you do the barrel math and you look at the supply risk, clearly the situation right now the oil market is very constructive for oil prices. david: as you look at what happened over the weekend, did saudi arabia step up and say we will be the guarantor that the price does not go too high? harry: in opec language, they are committed to market stability. the question is stability at what price? i think there been concerns from the u.s. and india in terms of high oil prices. saudi arabia may have responded by engineering this increase in output. when you look at the situation we face possible loss of iranian oil supplies as well as a wildcard, libya has seen its supply shuttered as a result of attacks on storage facilities. all of these things combined to produce a constructive oil price outlook. been tryingmay have to address concerns, the other factors around opec conspire to constructive ou

and divide that between the opec member countries. had 150% which means we have over 50% over compliance. we agreed before to do over 100% compliance, not more. confirm andd to emphasize on the last resolution recommend to6 and the opec member countries to adhere to 100% over compliance. >> many say this was a victory for saudi arabia who was under ,ressure from the united states this increase, as you describe it, the decrease in cuts. the you think this is a victory for the saudi's? >> officially, they did not say so but based on the reports we , this was pressure on opec and made some member countries. it is a strange thing for me that president trump put pressure on some opec member to limit their productions and impose sanctions on countries like iran. opec wants to remedy its action against the market. i believe president trump is doing against market fundamentals, against the free market. it is not a benefit to even the consumers. the higher price is because of the actions of president trump. >> following the meeting, he tweeted

opec agrees to boost oil production over opposition by iran. a white house divided, some officials wanting to restart trade talks with china. we will go behind the about lines. airbus,atum from telling theresa may to get her brexit at together or else. president trump threatens to impose tariffs. equities. at european under 30 minutes until the close of trade. i show you how much we haven't equities on the upside. ftse is trading higher. oil majors are rallying on the fact that opec struck a deal. not as much of like in the market as anticipated -- not as much supply in the market as anticipated. better than expected european data. pmi, germany, france better numbers in june. forecb has been calling normalization and think there is a bounce back for the second quarter. in greece, the five year yield coming down. on the back of a deal struck. a surprising deal. looking at the gdp levels of greece, the debt mountain at 178%. something has to get and it did. an easya creditors -- way to pay back 100 billion euros in loans. reprieve coming to greec

meeting coming up on whatever the end of next week i mean it was interesting to me usually opec sort of you sort of know where they're headed but the saudis went ahead and they boosted their production before the meeting did that surprise you. a hundred and sixty thousand barrel boost i don't know that it puts a big dent in it but it sure makes a good show i mean you've got to think about what's happening right now in india india now for the third time is trying to get the asian countries together to find a way to possibly either remove what they call this asian premium or do more business with the u.s. so when you talk about the shale output earlier you're absolutely right i think that the saudis have got to be put in a little bit of a show to quell the concerns that china and india have right now because they're getting ready to talk with each other they're getting ready to talk with japan and south korea and they want to put together basically an oil buying club and specifically with regard to india rajiv i mean recently they said that they would continue despite u.s. sanctions on

we also need to look at opec, tom. tom: we'll look at opec as well. 1:45, england-tunisia somehow related to his doctor's appointment as well. the world will stop. even opec will stop for england-tunisia, 2:00 p. this afternoon. sebastian will look at that. here is our first word news. reporter: tom, francine, thank you. in germany, there's been a high-profile arrest in the diesel emissions cheating investigation. volkswagen says the c.e.o. of its audi unit, rupert stadler, was taken into custody. he was arrested over concern he might tamper with evidence. in germany, the political future of angela merkel is on the line. er coalition is at odds over migration policy. the party is one of three in merkel's coalition, and merkel does have the backing of senior members of her own christian democratic union. in japan, an earthquake has killed at least three people and injured more than 200. the quake struck in the country's industrial heartland and had a magnitude of 6.1. trains and subways halted, and many factories stopped production. in colombia, the ne

an opec dealight ope increase?alk of trade the worries you would think that they would be negative, but they are not. eurostoxx futures keeping their heads out of water. ftse futures up .25 of 1%. after the vote yesterday ahead of the boe meeting, cac futures up .5 of 1%. take a look at treasuries. you do not see any risk off concerns in that market as the rates continue to climb. investors selling off treasuries %nd now we're looking at 2.94 on the 10 year. about what isk happening. will the rank of england take august off the table and how will the pound react? we will deliver that news for you at 12 noon here in london. russian market had a solid day. reasonably well bid. we did not get much of a sense of direction from the close of the s&p into what we are seeing an europe this morning. we could see an issue into the car stocks given what daimler has said. it will not be just a daimler story. daimler is not alone in this idea. this could be the biggest story are cut is triple widely anticipated out of china. ke

after friday's opec deal.hrunk to the smallest after friday's opec le. this shrinking spread. david: and of course mark will be joining us in a few seconds. sophie, thank you so much. -- apologies.eld what are we doing now? there we go. futures down. down about two basis points on the u.s. 10 year. investors reassessing, continuing trade tensions between china and the u.s., and those declining treasury yields. tumbleuities continue to from a horrid few days last week. one bright spot, the turkish lira. fx 24 is your function to get this chart. after the incumbent president claiming victory on the weekend. just in case you are wondering what you are looking at, the different boxes indicate how that moves across your global financial centers. move we areing the seeing in asia. interesting to see how much further this pushes down. for more on that and perhaps a preview, mark joins us to talk about this. mark, let's begin. what does this mean? >> i think investors are fairly happy that we've got a reasonably clear

goods and looking ahead to what is happening in opec news.irst it was saudi arabia and russia saying that they wanted to pump more oil. iran, venezuela and iraq saying this is not going to be happening. we have a big week ahead of us in what is going on with the trade and commodity front. seeing for trade, we are these punches being thrown. is there room for negotiation? are we at a point of no return? with these tariffs are put in place, there is a little bit of wiggle room to iron out the differences. talk is getting tough. ramy: july 6 is when they are supposed to be enacted. let's get a quick reminder of where u.s. markets closed on friday. we heard the news from china about the retaliation and we saw the markets respond. the dow down about one third percent. was energy weight because of what was going on with opec. the nasdaq down about .2%. with oil, the declines are continuing. -- crude was down. we're seeing further losses there. also see aluminum down and soybeans down on those trade war fears with china. thate: take a look at how is

we have the opec meeting. we haven't opec agreement to raise production. a million barrels per day. 600,000 effectively because of the ability of the members to raise production at this point. because it is on the lower end of the negotiated targets it looks like that is what is responsible for oil gaining. back above $67 a barrel. if you look at energy stocks, the best-performing group today. exxon, chevron, all trading higher eerie a broad rally. oilou look at the rest on people are rolling over a little too early. looking at the net long positions and you can see the net long. they are still going down. coming into the opec meeting. perhaps some people missed out on the rally and are chasing to catch up with that. other related movers we are 10%.ing, carmax surging first-quarter results beating estimates. morgan stanley called it a good print first stop that has had a strong run. shares,eleste you'll bidding for the protein business which it put up for sale earlier this year. tandem diabetics. fda has approved their implantable insulin monitor to elimin

opec is on a knife edge.ng into material deficit in the second half of the year, given some of the supply outages coming from iran, libya, venezuela. but if they do too much, they risk pushing them in terry's higher -- inventories higher. so i think the 600,000 barrels a day real production increase would be enough to effectively keep markets in balance in the second half of the year and keep prices at $70 to $80 a barrel. talk about how misaligned things to be going into the meeting in vienna. move ahead onudis their own anyway. presumablyll unilaterally increase production on their own, even if they can't reach an agreement. iran and venezuela can't benefit from an increase in output that opec agrees to. it is not in their interest to see opec raise production targets too much. but at the same time, no agreement would raise questions about the sustainability of the viability of opec, which is why, at the end of the day, opec will look to fudge some sort of agreement to show a sense of unity amongst the memb

there's a need necessarily to show the end users of oil that opec is responsive that's opec's sort of for why they would respond. they want to make sure the market is well supplied. not necessarily to show they are answering or responding to president trump because as you say, they want to show that they are united and an organization of their own but probably to stave off the political and geopolitical risk that could come with passage of nopec to underperformance here today. >> that's the first time i've heard about nopec moving through and the idea of using the anti-sherman trust laws. that's really interesting. >> it's an interesting concept we've got the ability to sort of leverage and do that producers have all the assets here that we could then go and file a claim against them and then execute against any judgment and violence of the sherman act. but as brian said, you know, the attempt to do that ten years ago was unsuccessful but, you know, we're in a different time now it's become hugely impactful >> we may not need them as much. >> right opec is in a different vein now. the

♪ >> president putin and mohammad bin salman meet before the next opec meeting. the trump effect.rade skirmishes rattle every market, and the president adds volatility to the commodity world. and it's getting hot in here. the drought rattles though market in the u.s. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel. this is "commodities edge." 30 minutes focused on the companies, physical aspects, and the trading behind commodities. we kick it off with spot on. joining me now is francisco blanche at bank of america merrill lynch, good to see you. spotlight, russian president vladimir putin and mohammad bin salman meet on the sidelines of the world cup, russia had no problem on the field with a big blowout and on the oil front it was the saudi's that made the headlines. they say and output increase is inevitable. "i think it will be a reasonable and moderate agreement but nothing outlandish. what does that mean? >> we will find out the details next weekend in vienna. the action is clearly happening in moscow and it probably kicked off a couple weeks ago. discussions have been going on for some time and it i

let's check oil ahead of the opec seminar which begins tomorrow and the opec meeting and decision on friday you have a couple big factors sending oil prices down more than 1% now. global concern over trade. the president's tough talk on trade has some concern that global growth could slow down. if growth slows, the demand for petroleum products may slow. we're seeing wti trading at 65 stateside. also questions about opec and how much they may agree to cut production last year they agreed to cut production to 1.2 million barrels a day, that has gone up to 1.8 barrels, now the talk is how much will they dial back on that deal? joining us now is the global head of foreign exchange strategy at societe generae gene why do you think the u.s. dollar has been so strong through all of this, kit, even with the tough talk on trade by our president? >> i think it's because other things are weak. >> currency markets are unlike any others because you have two sides to every corner. >> they are sounding more dovish, pushing back the first rate hike, mario draghi this morning sounded dovish from the

and non-opec meeting in vienna.hile they avoided individual country targets, it's expected that the increase in production will be led by saudi arabia. overall the move will see production increase by 1 million barrels a day. goldman sachs published a note saying it is $75 a barrel by the end of the year which is exactly where we are trading right now, steve. isn't it >> yes >> so you've spoken to almost every oil minister who attended the opec meeting. >> i spoke to everyone. >> here's the issue. we went in last week saying saudi and russia, presumably, had agreed to the extra 1.5 billion. what we're looking at is 1 million. it's going to be difficult to get 1 million extra production coming because of the supply constraints that exist. >> look, i can construct a whole argument about why it's bullish. i can actually equally well construct a whole argument why it's bearish as well it will be 1 million, others saying they haven't increased production at all. so there are arguments november 21st, 2016. 1.8 million bar

expectto be opec -- opec-plus and the others to reach an agreement in vienna.le discuss everything russia will discuss everything with opec-plus members. we have a great team down there and we will bring you news. grace, oil has come up very quickly. that is one of the reasons why you could argue emerging markets are in a tight space. do you expect oil to be around $70 per barrel? grace: we have a forecast of $67 as an average. approaches where it starts to impact broader economic growth, we go to the low range. grace, thank you very much, indeed. mario draghi is going to speak alongside his counterparts at the fed, pog -- bank of japan, and rba. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuver

with ministers agree a compromise or is opec heading for a splits it could be a short fall by the end of the summer like one point six to one point eight million barrels a day it will take time to anything to filter through say whatever they decide to do in the next few days it will be instant but it will have an impact on the market but they also want to insure against is that the stock over how that we've seen in recent years has doesn't come back again the reason why there are no talks or increase in production is to jump on that volatility i gave the market the consumers everybody enough certainty and sense of security of supply to keep markets in a healthy situation in june twenty fourth teen opec oil was trading at one hundred ten dollars a barrel by january two thousand and sixteen it had dropped to just twenty five dollars a barrel now thanks to opec limiting supply it's recovered to around seventy three dollars a barrel but there is dispute over what the ideal price should be. the saudi crown prince was warmly welcomed in moscow last week the two countries firmly agreed on th

you will catch up with opec as well. a lift jones despite the broader trade headlines and the president tweet regarding tariffs there as well. plenty more to come. this is tv . from new york, this is bloomberg. s bloomberg. mark: saying these are the families the media ignores, the houseent hosted a white event alongside angel families of those who have had loved ones killed by illegal immigrants in the united states. they say you never hear this side. the comes after criticism of the zero-tolerance policy which the president reversed. customs enforcement issued a notice that it may seek 15,000 beds and the pentagon says it is drawing up plans to house 20,000 unaccompanied children on military bases. themy corbyn says government under his leadership would recognize a palestinian state very early on and push hard for political solution to

> opec agrees to pump more oil. kind of. the deal sent energy shares spiking and oil prices jumping. >>> pumping the brakes. the white house threatenss tarin all european cars and that could make your next bmw or audi much morens expee. all that and more on "nightly business report" for friday, june 23rd. >>> geepg and welcome. i'm tyler matheiln in for b brewer. >> the broader market rally today on all street, the underpinning for that, energy shares rose. exxonmobil and chevron each up more than 2% after opec's decision to rai output. only moderately. that in turn also sent oil up the most in one day since november 2016. brian sullivan is in vienna tonight. >> opec did what president trump wanted it to do but likely didn't get the result he was looking for. trump tweeting today hopell ope ncrease output substantially. need to keep prices down. the group did agree to increase output by as muchs one million barrel az day, but oil prices rose instead. oil analysts says it's because the actual increase will be lese thaneadline

opec reality check. its threatsed off on to block agreements between the organization and its allies to raise crude reduction. -- crude production. and the intel ceo, brian krzanich resigning. let's go straight to that story. stock is down 1.6%. the s&p and dow are both down minimally. joining us to talk about this is garrett.berg reporter, we aren't going to litigate what he did. he broke a rule that was just discovered. explain what he did for intel, up 57% year-over-year. he is a well-respected ceo, the company facing tough markets moving into new areas such as ai and self driving vehicles. big questionsll about whether intel could continue to go another 50 years at this rate. this is not a good time to have an unexpected ceo change. vonnie: how does management look was theat krzanich person who put key people in key places, carried out key deals reporter:. reporter:they have now put their cfo in as interim ceo, robert swan. intel has always appointed a ceo from within with a clear succession strategy

are and you can't question the fact that opec might just be putting a little bit of window dressing on one hundred sixty one thousand barrels not enough and again aramco that aramco i.p.o. which isn't talked being talked about a lot the saudis need the crude oil prices to be up over seventy five probably closer to eighty so i don't think we've seen the highs yet well i mean the blaming on the highway oil prices i'm sure the saudis would say you know the meeting their goal and the other members of opec i want to ask about russia because russia was part of this one point six million dollars production cut back whatever it was sixteen eighteen months ago or so is russia going to ramp up production or have they already started. i think they already have they've talked about it they've been very transparent i think the russians and the saudis been very transparent about the increase of production they cited the reasons why whether that be venezuela or that the brazil angola the sanctions on iran and then also i think there's another topic that we're going to see coming out of opec which you

russia tying up with opec?there is only so much the u.s. to do. president trump can tweet. russiathe end, opec and will make their decision, and we will see what it's the markets, and the prices will move based on the supply that is actually there. scarlet: i'm gradually brought up opec plus. we are using that catchall term -- the countries are working alongside such as russia. what are the odds that russia would want or could we will join opec as a permanent member? i don't know if it is in russia's best interest to join the organization. it is the biggest producer in the world. do we want to be limited formally by a larger group? i can't imagine it will be any easier to come to a negotiated, close to unanimous agreement. scarlet: more leverage on the outside? julia: works on the top side. it works less on the downside. scarlet: david marino, thank you so much. bloomberg will have special coverage of the opec meeting from the beginning on june 21 new york fed president john wayne to speaking right now -- john

sort of but the ministerial meeting held in vienna on saturday we agreed to let opec and non opec countries raise output by one million barrels per day and go back to the initial production levels outlined in the december twenty eighth sixteen agreement right now we are exceeding our conformity levels by almost fifty percent and we decided to go back to the original quarters set out in the agreement so that production adjustment would again stand at one point eight million barrels per day instead of two point eight million barrels per day that we have now and so we can increase production by one million barrels a day they probably want to increase all the production they can now that prices are up what do you make of that statement. well if we're going to see that iran may not be somewhere where china india and turkey can go they'll gladly go to the russians that makes perfect sense the russians have been against keeping these production cuts and when you look at where oil prices are you know they could probably say there's some justification for it and so ultimately what we're going to fin

oil under pressure ahead of this week's big opec meeting.oing to find out what is weighingn oil right now. >>> mall madness what's hot, what's not and how to make money from both. it is monday, june 18th, 2018. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ ♪ >>welcome back thank you for being with us here on cnbc. i am brian sullivan. we are live from london today and tomorrow let's get a check on what is leading cnbc or as landon dowdy calls it what's hot on the dot. >> hot on the dot. developing story on audi rupert sadler has been taken into custody in germany. this is in connection with the diesel emission scandal. audi parent volkswagen has already pleaded guilty shares of volkswagen are lower this morning. >>> google investing $550 million in chinese giant jd.com. google will promote jd products on its service >>> and "incredibles two" taking the top spot earning an estimated $180 million the film smashing the record for the biggest domestic movie for an animated movie. topping "finding dori. >>> big weekend there. here's how your mo

coming up, we talk opec and trump tweets. that conversation is up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: economics, finance, politics this is "bloomberg surveillance" francine, comcast has made their long-awaited offered for 21st century fox, the largest u.s. cable divider -- provider. the assets are valued at $65 billion, and tops a previous bid from disney and sets up a bidding war. , the bidshare represents a 19% premium over the disney offer. volkswagen will pay a one billion euro fine imposed by german prosecutors for cheating diesel emissions regulation. inclusion's one chapter, even as new developments arise. the world's biggest carmaker says the settlement will have a positive impact on other proceedings in europe. volkswagen still faces legal action in more than 50 countries. rolls-royce is said to the cutting 4000 jobs as they tried to simplify their business and boost profit margins. the layoff brings the total jobs eliminated to nearly 10,000 since 2015. rolls-royce says the cuts will deliver annual cost savings

. >>> ahead of the opec meeting, oil is slightly lower.he price of brent crude and wti down and in the currency markets it will cost you 1.16 to get one euro king dollar continues to get stronger throughout 2018 >>> let's get to the news that is moving the markets. that's trade and tariffs president trump is ready to move forward and impose tariffs on 0 $50 billion of chinese imports that announcement expected to happen today eunice yoon joining us from beijing with more. >> reporter: thanks, brian we're expecting the trump administration to release the list of targeted goods as early as in the next few hours sources here in the american business community have told me that the u.s. trade representatives office have notified them that president trump has approved the list of tariffs at 25% also that list will reportedly be slimmed down from the original 1300 product categories to about 800 and that more tech products will be added to the list what's unclear is exactly when those tariffs are going to be imposed. we're expecting an almost im