if you see sustained a higher prices, opec cuts may come into question -- sustained higher prices, opecmay come into question. oil is oversupplied this year. with the risk premium needed with the events in iran right now, it is justified. prices areo 2024, down 15% over where they were 15 months ago. basically, people are worried about near-term production, the strait of hormuz, those kinds of things. long-term, you are seeing the supply impact. nejra: are you participating in this at all in terms of buying or selling options? how exactly would you trade this? would you just waited out? patrick: i think it is probably the point where you can start looking to fade it right now. when everyone is fearful, moving the other direction makes a lot of sense right now. longer out on the curb. i think the short end spiking up will provoke some production. it will pivot around it. i think being short longer data -- supply demand fundamentals is driving that. nejra: would you trade it via commodity currencies? is that something worth buying right now? patrick: basically, australia and cad are two f

perhaps that opec cannot shoulder the burden alone for supplies is opec still concerned about supply as well >> they have to be demand last year -- growth was barely 800,000 bares a day the slowest we've seen there are signs auto sales are picking up there is more fiscal stimulus. things shouldn't be as bad as last year. we shouldn't be expecting run away growth either opec can manage the market that's why he said what he did we don't have enough capacity should production be affected. that is very, very fair. the market is underappreciating how tight it is given how crude oil prices are in this market, we've seen this uptick where we need to see proper disruptions before the prices go up >> we'll keep an eye on those moving red lines thank you for those thoughts on the oil market we appreciate it >> coming up on the show, should investors fear a bigger uptick we'll ask what you should be inwith your portfolio, if anything, when we come right back i wake up every morning to see how much weight i've lost and how much better i look. myww join today with the ww triple play! the unparall

opec is worried.t they are doing is having these discussions about moving the march meeting forward to february, as soon as next week. we noticed the push from the kingdom of saudi arabia was meeting russian resistance. if they were to convene an emergency meeting, the markets would expect them to act. nejra: stephen gallo is still with us. is oil going to find a floor soon? picture isthink the particularly rosy for various reasons. clear is they amount of non-opec production relative to opec production. it does not seem like that's going to change dramatically anytime soon. trading oil on the whole, rallies in the oil price, you want to look for selling opportunities. nejra: we are rallying, but we are still heading for the worst month since may when we had the trade war worries. how does oil but also other factors figure into how you would trade india right now? >> india right now, i think asset prices will do well in india. we are talking about this regarding the u.k.. you are in an environment of

that when a wrench into that opec or opec plus plan very quickly. i think the united states is like every other country there's a interests who want the price down interests who want the price all and that's the fight that they are hiding we all live with the consequences and have no real input on to this contest between contesting capitalist interests that's the rock truth of it professor richard wolfe thank you so much for your time the time now for a quick break but hang in there because we return oil bankruptcies are up and prices are moving what is the forecast look like for 2020 break it down plus we take a look at the state of the clean energy sector and where we'll go in the next year with tyson slocum from public citizen. leaks last leak. when you. look at that is to close most of the book but. it's still it's a bit mean there's. just a little. there's a lot of areas in the economy where china has caught up or surpassed us you know the mobile payments markets 50 times the size of the u.s. or over here still writing checks our banking system

we hope that what happens in opec and the opec partners in the opec plus agreement will be able to pad it out, if you will, to keep the industry itself from these kind of shocks at the end of the day, one thing they know beyond the fact they're keengping a very, very close eye on what happens with the shale industry but also supply and demand and the impact over the next 30, 36 months, the potential for recession, what will happen with the u.s. stock market, how likely that will be to impact their decisions to keep investing they're, frankly, have to answer to their shareholders. when they talk about what happens over the next year to two years in terms of their outlook, they were keen to point out that part of this will be revolving around the decisions of policy makers that has a lot to do with the u.s. presidential election whether or not we'll see someone from the democratic side taking the floor, whether bernie sanders or elizabeth warren. we'll bring you comments from the exxonmobil ceo as exactly what the contingency plan is if the united states moves away from fracing they want

that when a wrench into that opec or opec plus plan very quickly.i think the united states is like every other country there's a interests who want the price down interests who want the price of oil and that's the fight that they are having we all live with the consequences and have no real lives put on to this contest between contesting capitalist interests that's the rock truth of it professor richard wolfe thank you so much for your time the time now for a quick break but hang in there because the return oil bankruptcies are up and prices are moving what does the forecast look like for 2020 break it down plus we take a look at the state of the clean energy sector and where we'll go in the next year with tyson slocum from public citizen. but if she warned you posted by you can i do the dishes at the bottom or those jeans nudist beach and see me we need to you. cuz and about that when you guys e.q.'s will be home in years i mean guys without infringing balls. clock you will see sawing during fuzzy fights about to conduct out the bill for the most c

what does opec do next opec meets in march.y agreed on deeper cuts at the last meeting i think it will be difficult to lock people into cuts. if you're an african nation, you have higher production cost and you look at $70 a barrel, let's pump every bit we can. >> let's talk about whether or not iran will actually use oil as a weapon in this case here. is it to their benefit to crank the spigots off? >> the people i've spoken to say no the people i spoke to in the region, experts around iran who have been looking at this situation for, in some cases, around 40 years, believe that's not the case i spoke to former energy minister and former opec minister over the weekend. he thinks oil won't be targeted. he thinks oil supply from the region will continue he went to his first opec meeting in 1972. he said in his career, very rarely has oil for a long period of time been disrupted out of the region he could only name a couple of occasions and these were huge flash points, major wars all indications fromi irania recommend eej seem t

we track opec. we will be in vienna in march. me take you back to the credit markets in the united states of america markets. the upstream energy components 50%pstream 15% -- more than of what they did for 2019. do you buy part of those credits that have been issued? are you tempted by energy credit, which is your domain? lale: yeah, certainly when the capital is cheap, and you are a capital sector, this is the time you should hit the markets as fast as you can. we never know how long it will last. as it relates to high-yield energy, to be perfectly honest, i'm not a believer in high-yield energy. the majority of those companies have been terrible shepherds of capital. they have huge capital spending needs. as a result, is a debt holder, if you look at upside and downside, you're just finding their capital plans, the best you get is par plus coupons. and the rates are questionable. it's not much. if you really have a strong view on the oil in the companies, you are much better placed playing on the equity market than the credit m

and non-opec, the collaboration will have to keep a very close eye on.have a report from bloomberg intelligence that some asian refiners are facing a fuel for, some weak demand excess capacity. >> one of the countries that asian refiners are keeping a very close eye on is china. again, it has been a sort of two-speed world in china. we have had about 4%, 4.5% year on year growth. what has grabbed the headlines through 2019 was a nearly 10% jump in chinese crude imports. sometimes people confuse that for -- that is not the actual end-user demand in china, but china has continued to add refining capacity. it has increased its crude imports, but what you need to keep in mind is it is also .xporting a lot of products the trend is likely to continue. the new capacity has to be used. they have to run it at a certain operating rate. i do believe that will remain a major concern for asian refiners because china exporting more essentially means less market opportunities for other refiners a japan, korea, india, and potential supply glut of refined products in the

opec is looking to reassure oil markets as tensions rise in the middle east.minister says the escalating conflict between the does not pose a risk to the strait of hormuz. >> we are not forecasting a shortage of supply. unless we have a catastrophic escalation, which we do not see. >> global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. anna: thank you very much. daimler is looking for a bigger piece of the car market. the automaker has been increasing in china. in an exclusive interview, the daimler ceo tells bloomberg what is next. we have a long-term relationship, that is our joint venture partner in china. that has been a joint venture, the relationship developed 15 tovely over the last 20 years. we are intensifying that in growing our footprint in china. it is not just about capturing the chinese market. we want to do r&d there. we are looking at a supply network which is very interesting. a lot of new tech companies are offering solutions that will

largestaq is the second producer at opec.e is a disruption, that will be impossible to fill entirely. i ran is the fifth largest, their numbers are dwindling under sanctions and some of those numbers are not entirely accurate because we cannot track everything moving out of iran, but there is no magic wand you can waive if there are wholesale cuts in either of these countries. what we have seen from opec in their last meeting, they have gone to extra steps, saudi arabia has gone to extra steps to pull more oil off the market, an extra 500,000 barrels a day. that can be returned quickly if there is some sort of supply disruption. i reporters were talking to the u.s. and strategic petroleum reserves. yet releasing that, but it was released after the september attack. vonnie: that is tina davis, our commodities managing editor. later she will be explaining why inventories fell 11.5 million barrels last week. coming up, our stock of the hour is american airlines. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: from london, i am guy johnson. vonnie: fr

sort of the theme we had was can opec save the u.s. and gas industry i got some nasty grams about that, but you're going to need 65 to 85 to higher to really make this industry grow and be vibrant. otherwise you're just pumping oil to pay your debtors. >> you bring up an interesting point. you look at opec in 2014 it was finding a campaign for market share you had a fight against shale barrels, venezuela barrel, iranian barrels. a lot of that has changed today. opec no longer has to worry b about market share like it did venezuela's got problems iran's under sanctions you mentioned shale. so opec is in a unique position where you can pivot from market share to price >> and you're going to get a lot, let's be honest you're going to get a lot of our audience who are listening thinking good, let them rot. it's fossil fuels, the past, let's move forward here's the reality not going to go away in the next 50 years because of petro chemicals and everything else but also millions of jobs in this industry. it's so much larger than it was even

on the heels of this coronavirus concerns i would imagine opec and other major producers are watchingosely >> we're getting r reports that they're considering having an emergency opec meeting the president of opec was out this week talking about a february meeting the russian oil pin manipulate center was out today signalling they'd p prepared to meet in february the emergency meeting could be held next week so it will be very, very important for the producer organization if you're going to move up an opec meeting, how do you manage this because there's so many moving parts it's unclear what the demand will be on jet fuel demand how do you target sentiment in this type of environment they're concerned. they want to be proactive and get ahead of this. >> what you're telling us is a new and developing, a new and breaking i should say development right now. the fact that opec could potentially be meeting next week >> that's what we're hearing we had heard sometime in february floated and now we're hearing they could move it up to next week. this is happening quickly. i think a country li

and the sunni side of opec, saudi arabia/the united states.ur gut feel, do i play this if i'm a trader right now? do i look at the spot market, the futures market, or do i even have to look at the options market? stephen: yeah, the options market, option riders, the guys who are selling options, those are considered the smartest guys, gals in the room. they have sold a significant amount of upside production, upwards of 65, 60 six dollars a barrel. price area you want to respect. all thewhere quantitative models can take you. if we begin to break that level, the rubber band has snapped and we can go significantly higher from that point. that is your jumping off point right now. if we cannot hold resistance in and i'm, $66 range looking at right around $63 -- we are right around the beginning of that resistance area, but that is what i'm really going to be focused on for the next several weeks. how quickly can the sentiment in the oil market rebound given expectations of recovery in the global economy outside of the u.s.? is that enough to prov

production, we actually may need opec to need to raise production. so that has the potential without an increase in oil prices from here to improve energy equity sentiment for the high quality companies and we think that that can reverse some of the middling performance. >> and thanks for joining us i hear it has been great conference down there. eo xwch eog which you like, some of the criticism is that they are not levering their balance sheet more they talked about some urgency or there has been some sense that they wanted to buy back shares that they actually wanted to do stuff to increase kind of the earnings leverage. that seems rather contrary to a sector that has been laden with debt and companies making poor allocations of capital >> and i would agree with the assessment as it relates to a lot of the other companies but we think that companies that can prove that they are low on the cost curve using 10 ks and 10 qs that have good corporate level returns, free cash flow and do not sacrifice their advantage in any of the above, should have the

>> you just had that opec meeting where they pledged to cut. your point is that it is a razor thin balance compared to what we had in the summer. >> if the cuts continue and we get tighter balances, that creates a greater vulnerability to the oil market to the risk. if the oil market tightens, you have to remember the oil market is well supplied there is also u.s. shale and the way it can quickly react to the market especially higher prices. there is those factors >> there is another factor as well what if iran goes down the route of the strikes they can go down the route of a being taing the commercial ship lanes. if theydo that, surely the ris premium of what we saw today, the big spike has to stay embedded if you are an investor, there is not a risk like this that will happen >> i think a lot of people in the market like to use the word risk premium if you translate the fundamentals you've got to be careful about extrapolating and how long that will last. the lasting dispute. it is an election year remember trump's voters. don't want gasolin

withins of the factions opec and opec plus, how do you them?ffects an -- >> they should be fairly compliant in the coming weeks. if prices surged by a far amount, we could see non-opec members like russia and others backing out of it. yvonne: thank you so much. admit the fallout from his dramatic escape. that is next on bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: let's do a quick check of the latest headlines. competition is heating up for digital banking licenses in singapore. it includes one of asia's largest massage chair makers. david: mercedes is going to recall three quarters of a million cars in the u.s. for potentially faulty sunroofs. these were models sold between you have there bonding between the glass panel and the siding could deteriorate. it could lead to the panel breaking free. the recall is expected to begin on the 14th. chairman ofousted india's sprawling company says he will not seek a return as chairman despite winning a legal case against the company. he does not wish to return in a formal capacity. the family owns about 18% of the company. davi

three, if there is some kind of iran-led supply shock, opec, particularly the saudis, could easily make up the gap the saudis alone could probably add two million barrels per day in a short time. and don't forget, norway, yeah, norway, they've added 350,000 barrels to the market over just the last couple of months with their new field in the north sea. in other words, even if iran does something big to iraq or maybe even saudi production, the world right now is likely able to make up for it. the key to higher prices longer term would be how many barrels are off line and really the key would be for how long. right now, the crude reality is that the oil math adds up to a fairly stable market let's stay on oil and energy and bring this katy base, co-founder of sandhill strategy are you surprised there is not more of a pop in the price of oil? >> hi, brian yeah, thank you so much for having me. i think it's an excellent question you've just walked through some of the most compelling forces in the market i think it is a little surprising that there hasn't been more of a reaction. in some way

novak helped forge an historic cooperation ever meet between opec and non-opec states to cut productionift prices. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. back to you in washington. david: as the senate prepares its impeachment trial against president trump, the issue of ukraine and a former associate of rudy giuliani looms over the proceedings. here to discuss is our bloomberg isicy reporter, rick davis here, as well as david goodfriend. atan low block, professor georgetown law center all with us. ck, bring us up-to-date on the left parnell's and what is going on with ukraine. it all has to do with ukraine and they're resisting russian attempts to move into their country. >> there are a couple of big question that are still hanging over the impeachment process as we move to the senate. the big one is, is there a smoking gun that would definitively prove the president himself ordered rudy giuliani to work this back channel with ukraine and to try to

want that that's not good for them 58 watch for potential further opec costs and watch for shares ofyou don't own fossil fuse, if you own an etf look at what's inside it. >>> still ahead, carlos ghosn going on the record. what the fugitive ceo said about his dramatic escape from japan you cannot miss this. >>> plus we are counting down to apple earnings ulbinuers out of cupertino be able to turn this market around? stick with us. back in two. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. this round's on me.eat. hey, can you spot me? come on in. find your place today, with silversneakers. included in most medicare advantage plans. enroll today by calling the number on your screen or visit getsilversneakers.com we're committed to making college more affordable., that's why we're keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. - [woman] i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. - [narrator] find your degree at snhu.edu. supporting innovative companies that will shape tomorrow and building workforce develop

runt they are focusing on the splay picture, what opec is going to do. the trade war is still a little bit in the ether it wasn't as sulsome an agreement as maybe people expected but one thing i'll say we had the concern about the trade war last year. a ceiling on the oil market. but looking at chinese demand in 2019 it held up well it was 390,000 barrels of growth year on year that was in line with previous years before trade war concerns. we have the situation where the sentiment is tide to the trade war concerns but the physical market in china seemingly not. >> why not. >> what's interesting is we have healthy demand for things like jet fuel, gasoline, held up in china this year. where we had softness in the oil market and emerging markets, india. oec demand also not fabulous but looking at year on year, the oil market demand about a million barrels we expect that next year as well. i think what's interesting is the trade war was a big sentiment story, not as much physical market story. >> just back -- but what's the mood what's the mood in abu dhabi

kathleen: you are certainly someone who follows opec and its leaders and policies very closely. the killing of the revered general, the retaliation anybodythat not kill last night, what does this mean for opec? is this a factor they cannot ignore? because this is not a conflict between any of the members, it is probably a business as usual type of thing. anything that is price supported is probably not something that members will object so. ais appears to be more of shot across the bow where there were not any iraqi or u.s. casualties. that kind of thing, where we don't have a conflict between the members, not really something that will affect policy. their biggest concern, global growth. there is a global manufacturing recession going on right now. those are the most important .hings for oil prices right now haidi: is the shale revolution enough to comfort anyone concerned about supply to the u.s.? jason: the ability to pull more supplies on line quickly is not just something that eases concerns, it is one of the reasons when we see these price hikes on what would have historic

before the war libya had the 7th largest oil reserves among opec members half of foreign oil revenues went to the population medical care and education were free but that was before. oil production has fallen by a factor of 6 and a 3rd of the population now lives below the poverty line. to take. place since $2.00 to $500.00 in the toasts total of. something that's. so if you go lower if you don't know what the before the soil the surface of the church you just in a court order for the just be yourself i mean if you know if you want to sleep early . that. night no no neck down. walk on the throne for me they bought a lot of the needy had the but nobody and nothing would not be an adult but i cannot help the injured then walk the walk up the i don't mean you can have the adored. him. this mustn't feel i'm stupid i see and it suits. the man with the bits of the month and yet i'm commissioning group leader in the know do some bullshit other than 3 months. but i can live with only him dash. dash really thought when i'm in the field i thought he. must. first and. most of them will do what h

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i think opec, opec plus plays a little as well we are in the beginning well into accelerating as welle u.s. is in position for all of those going forward >> what you made of larry fink's letter last week >> received his letter this energy transition is moving really fast. any energy company that doesn't pay attention, start moving really fast. many of us are will be in danger of being completely off with society. got to remain economic spoke with larry yesterday came to the ibc meetings here. explained it it is not a get out of hydrocarbons he made that clear >> that's ludicrous. >> the world needs all forms of energy less less emissions but all forms of energy >> you saw what microsoft did. >> things like carbon capture storage do require deep pockets. energy, oil and gas are all working hard on this i hope companies like microsoft, the tech companies join forces on this so we can join technologies and invest together >> that is a very politic way of putting things i think you've been very outspoken about your frustration about climate change and esg people and the reality of fossil

ast few weeks -- to that attack, we had an opec meeting.ent to extend banks that they were trying to implement. is updates from opec members achiever were an over last year. the conversation is much more and the impacts of the trade war. rule out whatot is happening on the -- in the middle east, there could be an event around the corner. who knows? says theecretary esper u.s. is prepared to deploy more military forces. this could get nasty and quickly. it already is nasty. how closely is the market watching this? >> they are watching it very closely. things can move very quickly. to explain my previous comments about why the markets got comes what situation in saudi arabia after the september attack, we can have a serious turn. in of whatiss in 1979 withraq the attack on the usmc. -- u.s. embassy. things can turn very quickly. iraq is a big oil producer, it produces about half of what saudi arabia does. if there is some sort of and that begins to impact the operations of the oil fields, that could have a serious impact on supplies. we canno

we have wti down $.24, and how concerned is opec echo -- opec? are very concerned.joined to move up their scheduled march meeting. littlee getting out -- a resistance from russia. it looks like they want to get on this and see what they can do to stabilize the situation. vonnie: the spread is widening with brent. >> it's not just psychological. it is the fear in the marketplace. there is a massive amount of shortselling the last few weeks from hedge funds. massive amounts of their. that being said, much of what we talked about when i was sitting on the desk with you two weeks to 63,n oil traded up 64, this is the bottom of the range. ofhink you will get a lot short covering coming in soon. if it gets to 150 does oil fall below $50? >> there has been a direct correlation. i think it will take a lot to get oil below 50 because of the massive amount of shorts out there. vonnie: what is the treasuries,'son got looking for lower yields or higher? >> lower yield in the very short term, but 3, 4 weeks from now, higher than where we are right now. i should mention the vix i

opec is looking to reassure oil markets. saysae energy minister there is a risk to the straight of hormuz. it is a bottleneck for global oil shipments. >> we are not forecasting a shortage of supply unless we have a catastrophic escalation, which we do not see. viviana: global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in i amthan 120 countries, it's viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. nejra: thank you. daimler says cost cuts today will fund the cars of tomorrow. last year the automaker mapped out a plan tilde eliminate more than 10,000 jobs will wide -- plan to eliminate within 10,000 jobs worldwide. the chief executive says he wants executives to share this forward thinking view. >> we welcome investors that have a long-term view to see the future, the long-term future of the auto industry, daimler, and share our views of the industry developing and how it is changing. that is a good thing. nejra: still with us, peter dixon from commerzbank. youcarmakers a

before the war libya had the 7th largest oil reserves among opec members half of foreign oil revenues went to the population medical care and education were free but that was before. oil production has fallen by a factor of 6 and a foot of the population now lives below the poverty line. player since the other dinner took an. lot of. something that's. so if you don't know if you don't know what the before looks sort of the surface of the earth you so thin it going for the good for the street so how do you know if you want to sleep early to get it. and. not know how often i know neck that. is let me work on that for me they bought a lot of the needy had been nobody and nothing would not be an adult but i cannot help the injured then walk the walk up the it and i don't mean you could have the adored. him. this just mustn't feel stupid i said and it suits you. have a man with the bits the month and the other one commissioning group leader in the they do some bullshit out of this is. true but i can live with only him dash. dash really thought a minute and he thought he. must . first deal

opec is next due to meet in march.m algeria say the gathering may move up its meeting to next month as producers assess the likely impact on demand for energy. one delegate says the idea is says theyformal state were unaware of plans to bring forward the meeting. industrial production in japan recovered in december after falling for the last two months. factory output climbed 1.3% from november. that is twice what economists expected. production slipped 4% over the december quarter. data shows that tokyo consumer prices rose by 7/10 of 1%. that is fractionally below forecast. hong kong's exports rose in december, snapping a 13 month streak of declines that was the longest since 2016. shipments expanded 45 billion u.s. dollars. up 3.3% from a year ago. it beat economist forecast. exports fell under 2%, widening the trade deficit. hong kong's exports saw their biggest annual decline since 2009. to the west now. president trump's impeachment defense has undergone a dramatic transformation on capitol hill. it has gone from

before the war libya had the 7th largest oil reserves among opec members for foreign oil revenues went to the population medical care and education were free but that was before. oil production has fallen by a factor of 6 and a foot of the population now lives below the poverty line. player since 2 to 500 militant. some in the so. called below if you don't know what the before looks sort of the surface of the church you so thin of glory for the good for the just be yourself how do you know if you want to sleep early to play. nice no no no neck down. islamiya work on that for me they bought a lot of the needy had the but nobody and nothing would not be an adult but i cannot help the injured then walk the walk up the i don't i don't mean you can have the adored. him. this is this mustn't. i say and it suits. the man with the bits of the month and the other one commissioning group leader in the know doing some bullshit out of the. room to welcome them with only him dash. dash really thought a minute and he thought it. over. most of the 1st. issue will do what he has against. all of us or.

projections already take into consideration the combined effect of a slower production growth and opec production cuts so if some of these cuts are overturned and we also factor in that some of the consumer nations around the world help build up massive inventories oil prices should to be should not discuss iraq at in the near term as long as there is no a huge disruption inside thank you her fellow wish to haro there for us on wall street. now and netflix may have come out of sunday's golden globes disappointed but its future is bright its pockets are deep and its movies are not only getting more critical recognition they also keep bringing in subscribers all challenges for the traditional movie industry despite receiving far more nominations than actual awards at sunday's golden globe ceremony it's clear that netflix has become a tough competitor for the world's leading film studios with high quality in-house productions like the 2 popes and the irishman the streaming service is making life difficult for traditional broadcasters cinema operators and hollywood as a whole a recent worl

before the war libya had the 7th largest oil reserves among opec members half of foreign oil revenues went to the population medical care and education were free but this was before. oil production has fallen by a factor of 603rd of the population now lives below the poverty line. player since to have a good dinner toasts a lot of the. saloon there's a. whole field overflowing with the before but it's sort of the surface of the burj you justin and gloria borger for the history so how do you know if you want to sleep early to. look at least. not know how often i know neck down. we're going to be there you know bought a lot of the needy had the but nobody and nothing would not be an adult but i cannot help the injured then what can the and the it and i don't mean you can have the adored. him. this is this muslim student i see and it suits. the man with the bits of the month and the other one commissioning group leader in the they do some bullshit out of this is. true but i can live with only him dash. dash really thought a minute and he thought he would. rather. be in the. first. issue

second largest in opec outside of saudi arabia. responsible for about 5% of global crude interesting because what we have seen in the aftermath of more recent attacks also with the volatility we have seen with iraq infrastructure there, particularly in the south is highly vulnerable with disruptions and outages. we have heard from the uae energy minister calling for calm and stability across the region. he was speaking to reporters today saying there is no immediate risk this is also important that is the vital oil choke point that has been vital in the past including those tanker attacks that we saw late last year no immediate risk to the straight according to the uae energy minister. back over to you now >> to bring some recent comments from lufthansa, talking in the last few minutes, saying it is canceling its daily flight from frankfurt to iran. one of the few european airlines that travels that route and also to iraq. they are going to cancel the next planned flight to the north of the country the eu commission president has c

we heard from the de facto leader of opec. they said opec and partners are monitoring and can respond, and have the ability to respond if needed, but saudi arabia says right now they only see limited demand bullish before this because we saw a ton of geopolitical risk in libya and iraq. prices were still shrugging off that and now we have the coronavirus. there seems to be too much oil in the market. and princeman sachs abdulaziz, between goldman saying barrels can be knocked off demand. this is the debate, saudi arabia saying extreme pessimism and you have, as far as i can make it, goldman saying 260,000 barrels could be knocked off demand. we're way past that. this will market has already corrected. hugh: to me, what has been most frightened about oil over the past few months is how insensitive it has been for these types of shocks. we were talking about the potential for a spike following the tensions between the u.s. and iran. you have to give the oil producers some credit in the way they have been able to manage supply an

what do you think opec should do? >> good question. the prices went up, ok, for a while.lion was lost just like this really. then i think because of the ioblem in china right now, think this is effectively the prices of oil. if this crisis continues, i am sure the price will go up. >> if the libya crisis continues? >> yes. to use a blockade, a tool to have your right, this will encourage others i think to do it. will encourage not only libya, maybe other states can do the same in the future if they feel they have any type of problem. maybe they have a problem with the west, so they could stop the production of lng, oil, gas, whatever, any kind of fuel. this is a very dangerous oilg --t to be usin using oil as a bargaining chip. >> do you see more geopolitical tensions this year? >> i think so. [indiscernible] i think this is affecting the peace and security of the mediterranean. manus: next, saudi led investor group about to buy a premier league soccer team, newcastle united. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ manus: welcome back to the "best of bloomberg daybreak: middle east." saud

opec, this is where they get all their money.all back, these countries will be in bad shape. i think we will continue to see cuts out of opec. prices will come back up. we are just at the bottom end of the range. overshoot,ty at probably on the downside of gold right now, we will probably see a rebound in that commodity as well. guy: chinese new year coming up. that's a big focus of that one. phil streible of blue line futures out of the cme. vonnie: now it's time for your bloomberg business flash. nissan pushing back against reports it is considering breaking up with french partner renault. the company says the alliance is the source of nissan's competitiveness. the partnership was shaken by the arrest of former chairman carlos ghosn. his dramatic escape from japan was another blow. online fashion seller boo-hoo group raised its financial guidance after a strong holiday season. sales growth for the year through february is expected to be as much as 40%. the company uses instagram and reality television to boost demand for its fa

before the war libya had the 7th largest oil reserves among opec members half of foreign oil revenues went to the population medical care and education were free but that was before. oil production has fallen by a factor of 6 and a foot of the population now lives below the poverty line. to. take. place since to come to dinner toasts. to something there's a. whole field if you don't know what the before going to soil the surface of earth you so thin it going for the good for the history so how do you know what effect it would have. that. no i don't know neck down. work on the for me that bought a lot of the needy had been nobody and nothing would not be an adult but i cannot help the injured then walk the walk up the it and i don't mean you could have the adored. him. this. heists and the suits. have them on with the bits the month and the other one commissioning group leader in the they do some bullshit out of this is. true but i can live with only him dash . dash really thought a minute and he thought he. must . first. if you will do what he has against. all of us or. dish leaves ou

the situation has highlighted the importance of the production when it comes to overall opec production, overall oil production do you think the market again here is being some what complacent about the supply in iraq if there were another round of geopolitical tensions >> i don't think the market has been explain ant as such the question is that they are inherently unpredictable we cannot know what will happen at the moment. we seem to be in a period of calm that is welcome to everybody iraq is important because over the next few years, subject to law and order being maintained and political stability. we are expecting to see iraq increase production capacity that will be important in the longer term, oil demand and the rate of growth will start to fall back. oil demand will grow we'll meet the supply to meet that the recent events we have seen, perhaps highlighted if we didn't know already that iraq is a very important country. the production has expanded dramatically it is a big supplier to europe and the united states. >> neil, i take your points there certainly. let's shift gears a

alix: the opec monthly report is out. i want to give you the highlights.'re not seeing crude move that much. overall opec lifted the oil demand growth estimate by this year by 140,000 barrel of oil these days. we've seen agencies file down their bond growth but this is a positive, growing from rivals but beyond u.s. shale, the companies are producing and will be the rival of the saudis and that's shifting to brazil and gianna and will become the competitor to opec and revised the total up as a supply from their rivals at 180,000 barrel as day to 2.35 million which is how does opec get out of their production cutting agreement and when do people start cheating if the the guys taking their oil share. and coming up next, morgan stanley promotes the fewest managing directors since 2002. more on how wall street is keeping its links. catch tvgo and if you missed something you can scroll through and check it out. this is bloomberg. ♪ viffaun aa viviana: we begin with investors, they once cheered on alcoa's restructuring plan and now they're looking for results of

the question is -- there is ampex -- apple supply within the opec plus line and just to remind everybodyere is a ,mall issued called america supply, and shale. tracy: yes indeed. it is certainly true we have yet to see a physical supply disruption in the strait of hormuz. we look forward to the conversation you will be having later today as well. let's bring in the executive director for client investments at tourists wealth advisement -- at torus wealth advisement. take a look at this chart, pull it up on the gdb function on your bloomberg if you have one. you can see that big drop in u.s. equity futures followed by basically whiplash and a lot of those losses being pared back this morning. how should risk assets be pricing this type of geopolitical risk? question. a very good pricing geopolitical risk is very difficult, but i think potentially geopolitical risk is still very much mispriced, and i think the escalation of the united states-iran tension is potentially leading to some rebalancing in portfolios. we had a very strong market rally in the u.s., and increasingly, we could poten

an obvious target is iraqi and it is a major oil producer, the second largest after saudi arabia in opect after saudi arabia in 0pec, pumps nearly 11.5 million barrels a day. if that gets targeted, deliberately or a collateral damage gets targeted, then we are looking at major outage of supply from the markets. if oil prices should start to spike, what happens next to 0pec commitments, for instance, to limit production —— production? will we see that united states ramping up oil production? the worst-case scenario which case millions of barrels per day of oil is removed from the market, 0pec will be helpless. again, the us will naturally ramp up because when prices are higher, the us will print “ pump prices are higher, the us will print —— pump more. could they pump enough to compensate the worst case scenario? that is very much in doubt. now over to australia where firefighters are getting little relief on containing deadly bushfires due to the strong winds there. a global appeal for funding raised more than $17 million on monday. that is as large parts of the country suffered extensiv

saudi arabia has push for an opec meeting has hit resistance from russia.hey want to bring forward the march summit amid growing alarm over the coronavirus outbreak, which could we can demand. every time opec has called an emergency meeting over the last decade, it has reduced production to help lift prices. resultsy, amazon's spikes to jeff bezos fortune to new heights, getting over $13 billion in about 15 minutes. he is now worth around $130 billion. the stock was buoyed by the news that amazon now has 150 million prime subscribers, up from 100 million just two years ago. global news 24 hours per day, on air and on quick take by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. thank you very much. the coronavirus has been declared an international health emergency as the number of victims climbs to 213. the u.s. and japanese governments have advised citizens to avoid traveling to china and urge to those to leave who are still there. stephen engle joins us now from hong kong. what is the latest? t